For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the North American Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) market experienced a notable price increase of 5.39%, a stark contrast to the 2.39% decline observed in Q4 2024. This upward trajectory was primarily fueled by supply-side constraints, seasonal stocking for spring planting, and global export restrictions, particularly from China. The quarter commenced with stable pricing in early January, but as demand surged and input costs from Phosphoric Acid rose, prices climbed steadily. February saw heightened demand from farmers preparing for spring cultivation and concerns over tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, leading to record-high U.S. imports. Although March showed moderate fluctuations, prices ended slightly lower in the final week due to off-season activity and sufficient inventory levels.
Phosphoric Acid prices also rose by 1.65% in Q1 2025 compared to the previous quarter, driven by steady demand and balanced supply conditions. Despite challenges such as port congestion and rising logistics costs, key manufacturers like Mosaic effectively managed production, ensuring consistent availability during peak demand periods. The uptick in Phosphoric Acid prices mirrored the heightened agricultural demand, particularly for crops like corn and soybeans, which require phosphorus-based fertilizers.
Meanwhile, the Rock Phosphate market in North America remained stable, reflecting balanced supply-demand dynamics despite subdued overall market activity. Although production costs rose, producers maintained moderate output levels, aligning with the flat demand from key agricultural and food processing sectors. As Q2 approaches, the focus shifts to monitoring fertilizer application trends during the spring planting season, with cautious optimism prevailing in the phosphate market.
APAC
In Q1 2025, Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices in the APAC region showed moderate bullishness, reversing a 3.93% decline in Q4 2024. Starting at USD 662/MT in January at Tanjung Priok, Indonesia, prices rose steadily, driven by China’s export restrictions, stable feedstock Phosphoric Acid prices, and seasonal agricultural demand. Initial subdued demand and oversupplied ammonia gave way to a price boost from Lunar New Year stocking and government subsidies. By March, peak agricultural preparations for Ramadan supported firm prices despite declining ammonia costs, resulting in a 0.99% rise in DAP prices in India.
Phosphoric Acid prices in China decreased by 1.59% due to fluctuating supply-demand dynamics and logistical challenges like limited yellow phosphorus availability and port congestion. Although steady manufacturing activities supported early-quarter stability, cautious demand from fertilizers and food processing sectors contributed to the decline. In India, prices mirrored this trend with a 1.6% decrease.
Rock Phosphate prices in the APAC region remained stable, closing at USD 149/MT in Indonesia, with a slight 1.59%. January saw a 2% rise due to strong manufacturing demand, but February and March declines reflected higher inventories and stable Moroccan supplies. Government initiatives balanced the market, ensuring steady pricing amidst seasonal and supply chain challenges.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the European Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) market experienced a robust upward trajectory. Key drivers included constrained regional supply, seasonal agricultural demand, and upstream challenges. January began with subdued activity due to the holiday season and adverse weather, but tighter inventories and pre-planting season stocking pushed prices upward. February maintained a bullish trend, supported by a global phosphate supply deficit, elevated feedstock costs, and limited availability from major suppliers like Tunisia and Russia. By March, prices peaked amid severe port disruptions and strong spring demand, with Morocco's OCP playing a pivotal role in filling supply gaps. Overall, DAP prices rose by 2.67% compared to the previous quarter.
The European Phosphoric Acid market, in contrast, saw a marginal 0.99% price decline in Q1. This was primarily attributed to steady supply levels from Morocco, offsetting logistical challenges such as port congestion and labor disputes in key hubs like Hamburg and Antwerp. Reduced freight rates helped mitigate transportation costs, while consistent demand from the fertilizer sector supported market stability. However, rising input costs and potential tariffs on Russian fertilizers tempered buyer sentiment.
The Rock Phosphate market in Europe exhibited stable pricing trends, reflecting balanced supply and demand dynamics. Despite steady prices, consumption softened due to weaker demand from downstream sectors like DAP and MAP production. Challenges such as cautious purchasing strategies, economic uncertainties, and limited downstream growth constrained market potential, leaving manufacturers to navigate cost pressures and moderate demand effectively.
MEA
In Q1 2025, the Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) market in the MEA region experienced a modest increase trend. However, February marked a slight recovery as global phosphate supplies tightened due to China’s export restrictions and robust international demand from Southeast Asia and the US. March prices stabilized, supported by steady exports and domestic demand, balancing earlier bearish pressures. Overall, DAP prices rose by 1.30% compared to Q4, reflecting balanced market conditions.
The Phosphoric Acid market in Morocco saw a modest price decline of 0.45% in Q1, driven by stable domestic demand and strong export performance. Despite seasonal fluctuations, exports to India, Pakistan, and the EU remained consistent, particularly from Jorf Lasfar. While subdued global demand influenced pricing, steady supply chains and reliable export operations ensured market stability. The local agricultural sector’s preparation for the winter wheat season also contributed to maintaining demand. This balance prevented significant price drops, reflecting a stable market outlook for the coming months.
The Rock Phosphate market in the MEA region exhibited pricing volatility, closing the quarter at USD 120/MT FOB Safaga. After an initial 2.4% price rise in January due to inflation and currency pressures, February saw a 1.6% dip as economic uncertainties impacted demand. March faced a sharper decline of 4.7% from reduced fertilizer demand in APAC and increased inventories. However, Rock Phosphate prices rose by 2.79% quarterly, highlighting resilience amid challenges such as inflation and fluctuating demand. Suppliers continue adapting to these dynamics, preparing for recovery in agricultural activities.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American fertilizer market experienced mixed trends across key products, influenced by stable supply-demand dynamics, subdued agricultural activity, and global market challenges. The U.S. phosphoric acid market witnessed slight declines as steady production levels and adequate raw material availability balanced flat demand across sectors. Stable operations in port facilities ensured smooth supply chains, though labour shortages and transportation delays posed minor challenges.
Agricultural demand remained stable due to ongoing crop fertilization, but weakening overseas demand, particularly from Mexico and Brazil, dampened export prospects. The rock phosphate market also exhibited a stable pricing trend, driven by moderate production and subdued downstream demand from agriculture and food processing. Seasonal winter slowdowns further contributed to weak purchasing activity, while rising production costs and supply chain disruptions constrained market growth.
Meanwhile, the diammonium phosphate (DAP) market faced a price decline due to subdued demand during the autumn harvest, cautious purchasing activity, and limited ammonia supplies. Export volumes fell amid reduced Chinese exports and Mexican tariffs, while sluggish lithium iron phosphate battery production added upstream constraints. Overall, the quarter reflected cautious market sentiment with manufacturers focusing on balancing production and inventory. Moving into 2025, expectations of increased fertilizer applications bring a cautiously optimistic outlook for the agriculture-linked fertilizer markets.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the fertilizer market experienced mixed trends, with strong demand for phosphate-based fertilizers, particularly in China, while other regions saw slower activity due to seasonal factors and supply chain disruptions. The phosphoric acid market in China experienced growth, fueled by a balanced supply chain and heightened demand from sectors like fertilizers and new energy. Despite fluctuations in feedstock prices and cautious buying behavior, the recovery in the phosphate fertilizer sector, particularly with monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) production, helped stabilize the market. The rise in new energy vehicle production further bolstered phosphoric acid consumption. China's decision to tighten phosphate exports to secure domestic supply added upward pressure, while export activities remained restrained. In the APAC region, Rock Phosphate prices remained stable due to consistent demand from agriculture, especially in Indonesia, where economic growth positively impacted the market. However, Vietnam and Malaysia faced challenges due to economic contraction. The DAP market saw a decline in prices, influenced by sluggish demand, off-season procurement, and disruptions in the supply chain. The Chinese government’s halt on DAP exports from December 2024 to April 2025 further limited supply, but steady domestic demand in China’s agricultural sector helped prevent a larger price drop. These market trends highlight the strong connection between phosphate products and the fertilizer sector, with agriculture driving demand and stabilizing prices despite external challenges.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the European Phosphoric Acid market experienced a slight decline, primarily due to weak demand from the fertilizer sector, particularly for DAP and MAP, which utilize phosphoric acid as a key input. Although manufacturing activity remained stable, cautious procurement strategies, driven by lower consumption and a softer economic climate, contributed to reduced inventory levels. The overall market showed a balanced supply-demand ratio, with key exporters like Morocco maintaining steady imports. However, the subdued demand from agriculture, particularly in the fertilizer sector, and limited industrial growth in the Euro Area led to a tempered market outlook. In the Rock Phosphate market, prices remained stable, largely influenced by consistent pricing from Morocco, though soft demand from the downstream fertilizer sector tempered overall consumption. The DAP market saw a modest price increase, supported by stable production activity and moderate demand from the agricultural sector. However, logistical disruptions, adverse weather conditions, and tight feedstock availability, particularly Ammonia, affected supply chains and demand levels. These trends reflect the close link between phosphoric acid and fertilizer production, with the agricultural sector's limited growth and cautious purchasing strategies playing a key role in shaping market dynamics.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the Phosphoric Acid market in the MEA region witnessed a slight decline in demand, driven by reduced global consumption of DAP and MAP fertilizers, especially in key export markets like India. While production and export activities from major players such as OCP Morocco remained steady, the agricultural and food processing sectors in the region exhibited stability. However, subdued export activity in DAP weighed on overall consumption. Mixed feedstock dynamics, with rising Sulphuric Acid costs and stable Phosphate Rock prices, added complexity to the production landscape. The Rock Phosphate market, on the other hand, experienced a steady pricing trend with slight increases towards the end of the quarter, reflecting the impact of inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations. Despite steady demand from agricultural and fertilizer sectors, the construction sector's challenges and cautious procurement strategies limited broader market activity. The DAP market saw upward momentum, supported by moderate production rates and supply chain adjustments to address feedstock constraints. Seasonal demand fluctuations in key import markets like India affected global export activities, but ongoing agricultural requirements provided steady support for fertilizer demand. As the quarter concluded, market participants remained focused on managing input costs and navigating economic uncertainties while maintaining stability in supply and production.
