For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American fertilizer market experienced mixed trends across key products, influenced by stable supply-demand dynamics, subdued agricultural activity, and global market challenges. The U.S. phosphoric acid market witnessed slight declines as steady production levels and adequate raw material availability balanced flat demand across sectors. Stable operations in port facilities ensured smooth supply chains, though labour shortages and transportation delays posed minor challenges.
Agricultural demand remained stable due to ongoing crop fertilization, but weakening overseas demand, particularly from Mexico and Brazil, dampened export prospects. The rock phosphate market also exhibited a stable pricing trend, driven by moderate production and subdued downstream demand from agriculture and food processing. Seasonal winter slowdowns further contributed to weak purchasing activity, while rising production costs and supply chain disruptions constrained market growth.
Meanwhile, the diammonium phosphate (DAP) market faced a price decline due to subdued demand during the autumn harvest, cautious purchasing activity, and limited ammonia supplies. Export volumes fell amid reduced Chinese exports and Mexican tariffs, while sluggish lithium iron phosphate battery production added upstream constraints. Overall, the quarter reflected cautious market sentiment with manufacturers focusing on balancing production and inventory. Moving into 2025, expectations of increased fertilizer applications bring a cautiously optimistic outlook for the agriculture-linked fertilizer markets.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the fertilizer market experienced mixed trends, with strong demand for phosphate-based fertilizers, particularly in China, while other regions saw slower activity due to seasonal factors and supply chain disruptions. The phosphoric acid market in China experienced growth, fueled by a balanced supply chain and heightened demand from sectors like fertilizers and new energy. Despite fluctuations in feedstock prices and cautious buying behavior, the recovery in the phosphate fertilizer sector, particularly with monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) production, helped stabilize the market. The rise in new energy vehicle production further bolstered phosphoric acid consumption. China's decision to tighten phosphate exports to secure domestic supply added upward pressure, while export activities remained restrained. In the APAC region, Rock Phosphate prices remained stable due to consistent demand from agriculture, especially in Indonesia, where economic growth positively impacted the market. However, Vietnam and Malaysia faced challenges due to economic contraction. The DAP market saw a decline in prices, influenced by sluggish demand, off-season procurement, and disruptions in the supply chain. The Chinese government’s halt on DAP exports from December 2024 to April 2025 further limited supply, but steady domestic demand in China’s agricultural sector helped prevent a larger price drop. These market trends highlight the strong connection between phosphate products and the fertilizer sector, with agriculture driving demand and stabilizing prices despite external challenges.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the European Phosphoric Acid market experienced a slight decline, primarily due to weak demand from the fertilizer sector, particularly for DAP and MAP, which utilize phosphoric acid as a key input. Although manufacturing activity remained stable, cautious procurement strategies, driven by lower consumption and a softer economic climate, contributed to reduced inventory levels. The overall market showed a balanced supply-demand ratio, with key exporters like Morocco maintaining steady imports. However, the subdued demand from agriculture, particularly in the fertilizer sector, and limited industrial growth in the Euro Area led to a tempered market outlook. In the Rock Phosphate market, prices remained stable, largely influenced by consistent pricing from Morocco, though soft demand from the downstream fertilizer sector tempered overall consumption. The DAP market saw a modest price increase, supported by stable production activity and moderate demand from the agricultural sector. However, logistical disruptions, adverse weather conditions, and tight feedstock availability, particularly Ammonia, affected supply chains and demand levels. These trends reflect the close link between phosphoric acid and fertilizer production, with the agricultural sector's limited growth and cautious purchasing strategies playing a key role in shaping market dynamics.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the Phosphoric Acid market in the MEA region witnessed a slight decline in demand, driven by reduced global consumption of DAP and MAP fertilizers, especially in key export markets like India. While production and export activities from major players such as OCP Morocco remained steady, the agricultural and food processing sectors in the region exhibited stability. However, subdued export activity in DAP weighed on overall consumption. Mixed feedstock dynamics, with rising Sulphuric Acid costs and stable Phosphate Rock prices, added complexity to the production landscape. The Rock Phosphate market, on the other hand, experienced a steady pricing trend with slight increases towards the end of the quarter, reflecting the impact of inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations. Despite steady demand from agricultural and fertilizer sectors, the construction sector's challenges and cautious procurement strategies limited broader market activity. The DAP market saw upward momentum, supported by moderate production rates and supply chain adjustments to address feedstock constraints. Seasonal demand fluctuations in key import markets like India affected global export activities, but ongoing agricultural requirements provided steady support for fertilizer demand. As the quarter concluded, market participants remained focused on managing input costs and navigating economic uncertainties while maintaining stability in supply and production.
