The Asian caustic potash market remained stable in the fourth week of September 2025. High levels of domestic production, stable policy mandates, and a generally good supply side in the market held prices steady. In Qinghai, the government offered support, with some suppliers of market-dominance just part of the stable environment in that region. Prices from border trading had decreased slightly, although stock levels of potassium chloride and other similar raw materials provided good supply.
The Asian caustic potash market was firm in the final week of September 2025, with prices holding levels even against the backdrop of the persistent overall weakness in the potash fertilizer market. The fall fertilizer market was also struggling with low demand and wait-and-see consumer sentiment, however, caustic potash prices held firm because firm domestic production and sound policy direction underpinned its pricing environment.
The declines in the fertilizer sector were triggered primarily because of traders' readiness to export commodities and wait-and-see attitudes of buyers. Therefore, caustic potash producers did not alter their pricing mechanisms and continued to offer potash as a raw material purchased by compound fertilizer producers. This strategic action prevented the producers from any serious pricing losses.
At Qinghai, caustic potash prices remained firm and supportive of supply stability government policy and effective supply-dominance of local sources. The supply, despite continuing importations of potash coming incrementally during the month, was faced with sufficient stability with potassium chloride and other materials always at high inventory at the ports, which acts as such a form of raw material for caustic potash.
While seasonally there was some demand, overall sentiment in the fertilizer sector remained weak as downstream activity was dull. Market analysts pointed out that falling raw material prices such as urea and phosphate fertilizers had eroded market confidence. The recent fall in urea prices underpinned a low-key, stable trend for caustic potash, which remains supported by its inherent position in industrial and agricultural use.
In addition, a key driver of price stability has been the increase in local manufacturing activity, as China's official PMI showed expansion, supporting usual operating rates at potassium carbonate and phosphate facilities. This contributed to additional spot market purchases of caustic potash, supporting market sentiment and preventing downward pressure.
As per ChemAnalyst, the Asian caustic potash market is expected to be stable. Players in the market are monitoring demand realignments induced by volumetric shifts in potash imports and recommencement of production of compound fertilizers, which could drive price in the future. In the meantime, stable supply and tight policy remain supporting the stability of price in the region.
