Côte d'Ivoire cocoa prices will be cheaper in July 2025, after several months of unbroken increases. Normalizing export arrivals and softening world grinding demand in Europe, North America, and Asia also alleviate pressure. While Côte d'Ivoire mid-crop weather issues are still ongoing, softer downstream demand and stronger port stocks are bearish on prices Market participants anticipate further weakening of cocoa prices, barring any unexpected setbacks, as bearish sentiment tightens further in the remainder of the month.
Following some months of increasing cocoa bean prices fueled by weather distortions and constricted global supply, fundamentals in the market are starting to change, indicating a probable downward slope in Côte d'Ivoire cocoa prices during July 2025. The world’s largest cocoa producer, Côte d’Ivoire had witnessed elevated export prices in June due to mid-crop delays and supply chain challenges. But momentum is now easing as several supply- and demand-side factors come together to put downward pressure on cocoa markets.
As of mid-July, Côte d'Ivoire port receptions had reached around 1.6 million metric tonnes—marginally above by 0.6% year-on-year. Although this is a very modest increase, the momentum is slowing from the rapid rates of growth seen in earlier 2025. Volumes of exports of cocoa beans have begun stabilizing, and inventories at destination ports are accumulating, which indicates less desperation on the part of international buyers. At the same time, grinding demand in major consuming countries is fading. Figures for the first half of 2025 report cocoa grindings decreasing in all major centers. Weaker cocoa grinding volumes were witnessed by Europe, North America, and Asia, illustrating weak downstream performance coupled with inflation-dented demand erosion.
At the same time, West African supply is building momentum. Ghana, the world's second-largest producer of cocoa, will record an estimated 8.2% year-on-year production growth in the crop year 2025–2026.
This rebound has helped ease some of the global tightness, especially as the region looks to recover from prior climate and disease-related losses. Traders are beginning to factor in a mild global cocoa surplus for the current season, reversing the deficit sentiment that fueled price rallies earlier in the year.
In contrast to Côte d'Ivoire's mid-crop issues of excessive rain inducing pod rot and delayed picking, the overall cocoa market is tending bearish. Cherelle wilt, a disease that targets immature pods of cocoa, also skyrocketed in June, which has the potential to lower production for the main crop later this year. However, these factors are now overshadowed by weak processor demand and the growing likelihood of supply normalization from neighboring cocoa-producing countries.
For the rest of July 2025, cocoa prices are expected to ease further. While temporary supply fears may cause occasional volatility, the prevailing market sentiment is shifting toward caution. Rising inventories, slowing cocoa grindings, and stabilizing exports all contribute to a weakening price environment. Unless a significant weather event or policy disruption occurs, the cocoa bean market is poised for a steady decline through the end of the month.
