The shrinking end-use demand and tightening raw material supply in China caused a mid-June 2025 decline in copper rod prices, with some businesses even contemplating production pauses. The USA, however, saw a slight fall in copper rod prices driven by increased supply and strong raw material imports.
As June wraps up, copper rod markets in both China and the U.S. are facing challenges. This is largely due to weak demand from downstream manufacturers, careful production planning by companies, and potential changes in trade policies.
China
Chinese copper rod prices experienced a decline in the middle of June 2025, driven by reduced end-use consumption and an accumulation of finished product inventories, which even led some businesses to consider pausing production.
The supply of copper rods saw a notable dip in the third week of June. Operating rates for secondary copper rod producers fell by 4.91 percentage points week-on-week, reaching 24.12%. Despite this, the finished copper rod inventory held steady month-on-month at 3,350 metric tons. Producers are maintaining a cautious approach, buying raw materials daily to cover immediate production needs, even with existing orders.
Demand for copper rod is currently weak. Terminal wire and cable manufacturers are seeing fewer orders and are building up finished product inventories, leading some to halt production. This, coupled with the onset of the domestic consumption off-season and a slowdown in procurement from downstream processors, has led some processing companies to reduce their operating rates.
Looking ahead, a slight reduction in operating rates for copper rod enterprises is anticipated, driven by soft downstream terminal demand. Even with a tight raw material market and seasonal consumption slowdowns, strong power grid investment continues to support consumption, meaning we expect copper rod prices to remain volatile.
The USA
In the third week of June, Copper rod prices in the USA witnessed a slight fall of 0.8%. Despite various factors influencing the global copper market, the dominant concern for copper rod manufacturers and consumers is the outcome of U.S. trade negotiations, particularly those with China, which could dictate future U.S. demand.
The continued jump in refined copper imports and the 2.6% weekly rise in COMEX copper warehouse stock indicate a robust supply chain for raw copper, ensuring steady availability for copper rod production.
U.S. trade policy will be a key driver in the latter half of 2025, with particular attention on a potential copper tariff. The government’s push for new copper import tariffs has already impacted the market. While a recent US Court of International Trade (CIT) ruling blocked some previous tariffs (the "Liberation Day" tariffs), this decision does not directly affect the copper rod market. However, it could still have a 'sentimental' effect as market participants consider how broader trade policies and potential future legal challenges might influence the outlook for copper rod imports.
