For the week ending September 19, the global cyclohexanone market exhibited diverging regional performances. In China, prices drifted down a bit as supply began to recover and demand from downstream continued to languish. Producers were feeling pressure from the high cost of benzene, contributing to some downward pricing pressure for cyclohexanone. The trend continued in the U.S. as demand from coatings and intermediates attempt to buy ahead of quarter-end was a little lackluster, heightening those acquiring new supplies to think twice with the ongoing trade and logistics saga limiting confidence. Meanwhile, Germany was a firm market with steady supply/demand dynamics, downstream buying remained consistent, and basics were in balance allowing for the market to be steady overall. Looking ahead, consolidation in the near term is expected in China and the U.S. with downside risk, while stability in Germany should continue reflecting sound European fundamentals despite ongoing cost side pressures.
The week ending September 19 showed mixed dynamics in the cyclohexanone market across major regions. The global cyclohexanone market exhibited diverging trends, in the week ending September 19, with prices weakening in both the Chinese and U.S. markets under lethargic demand and supply constraints, while cyclohexanone prices in Germany remained stable given constructive fundamentals and steady purchasing by downstream users
In China, the cyclohexanone market sentiment remained poor as prices derived pressure from soft demand and rising supply. The domestic market was quiet, as downstream buyers mostly limited purchasing to only immediate needs. Producers were attempting to spur sales by slightly lowering offers, but this is of no real support since the underpinning was demand. Cost-side developments proved minimal as benzene prices bounced within a relatively high-range leaving production margins under pressure, forcing producers to focus on steady operation as opposed to aggressively increased production.
In the United States, cyclohexanone market conditions showed the same softness noted in Asia. Cyclohexanone prices fell slightly due to slow demand from coatings and intermediates. Additionally, the quarter-end brought seasonal factors into play, as buyers were cautious ahead of a quarter-end and did not want to carry extra stock. Although raw materials are readily available, producers indicated that consumption did not rise as anticipated, leading to further comfort in the downward trend of cyclohexanone. Logistics delays and uncertainty regarding tariffs, as well as tariff negotiations and container shipping sticky points, created a lackluster feel for trading.
Germany, in contrast, showed much more stability in its domestic cyclohexanone market. Cyclohexanone pricing was stable throughout the same period, aided by equilibrium between supply and demand. Local producers kept a normal flow of materials, while downstream industries maintained regular procurement without any risk of volatility. The feedstock benzene price remained slightly elevated domestically; however, suppliers in Germany managed to control their margins without hindering cyclohexanone price stability.
The outlook for cyclohexanone indicates that regional divergence will continue in the short term. In China, it is expected that there will be some consolidation in the near term, but the timeline for any recovery in cyclohexanone prices will depend on improving demand from downstream customers during the pre-holiday period. Supply pressure could weigh further if factories increase shipments without matching consumption. The U.S. is expected to remain anything but sharply lower unless demand from coatings and adhesives improves. Changes in seasonal inventories and the continuing uncertainties of global trade could also present an obstacle to any increases. In Germany, the outlook should remain stable, with only very narrow price changes anticipated if the fundamentals are balanced. In general, the global market remains cautious, with localized conditions driving regional outcomes in late September.
