Deteriorating Demand From the Downstream Market Dampens the Global Urea Prices

Urea prices are continuously plunging in the global market due to muted demand from downstream industries. According to the ChemAnalyst price tracker, Urea prices were estimated at USD 540/MT on a FOB basis for the Corn Belt as we enter the month of September. 

In the USA, domestic demand from consumers is still modest, as would be expected over the offseason. Consequently, many traders and producers continue to concentrate on their re-exporting possibilities. While Latin American consumers have yet to enter the market. Urea prices in North America have declined modestly, by roughly 0.5%, for the week ending September 1st.

After reaching heights in the previous few months, Urea prices have fallen in Saudi Arabia due to some price relaxations brought on by lower natural gas prices. Last week, Urea prices declined by USD 35 per tonne, while domestic prices for feedstock Ammonia fell by 2% per tonne. As the price of nitrogen declined, manufacturing costs of fertilizer fell nationwide. Gas prices in Europe fell by 5% in the previous month, or in July, which significantly impacted consumer fertilizer costs further down the supply chain. Ample supplies and weak demand continued to be the leading causes of the decline in pricing.

Agriculture demand is still off-season due to the lack of downstream Urea demand from the Melamine production industry, which is currently severely curtailed. Due to a fragile supply and demand pattern, prices decline due to gloomy market sentiment. The daily Urea Output fell to roughly 147,000 tons after several manufacturers upgraded, which is still likely to decrease.

Urea futures in the Chinese spot market was weak and erratic. Except for Northeast China, where the price of Urea marginally increased by 10 yuan/ton, Urea prices declined everywhere by 10 to 40 yuan/ton. The daily Urea output gradually rose and is now close to 160,000 tons after the Sichuan and Chongqing power disruptions were resolved.