In the second half of June 2025, European EVA prices remain stable as the market finds a fragile balance between steady supply and weak demand. The restart of Versalis’ Dunkirk facility has improved availability, but not enough to push prices down. Seasonal orders from the agricultural sector have wrapped up, and hot, dry weather forecasts suggest slower demand ahead. Exports to China offer little support due to weak downstream buying and policy uncertainty. Producers are holding firm on pricing amid rising ethylene costs and cautious spot activity. Without major changes, this quiet market tone is likely to persist into July.
The European ethylene-vinyl acetate market continues to follow stability in the second half of June 2025, with prices holding steady amid subdued trading activity and a cautiously balanced supply landscape. Market participants report that the recent restart of Versalis’ Dunkirk cracker and polymer facilities, which were shut since a fire on April 21, has mildly increased availability of ethylene-vinyl acetate in the region, though not enough to pressure prices. The market remains broadly in equilibrium, but sentiment is fragile as downstream demand weakens, and export prospects remain limited.
Buyers of ethylene-vinyl acetate in the agricultural sector have completed their seasonal orders for medium-grade ethylene-vinyl acetate used in greenhouse film production. However, forecasts from the regional meteorological department point to hotter and drier than usual summer conditions across Europe, suggesting reduced usage of agricultural films in the coming weeks. This has already begun to weigh on demand for ethylene-vinyl acetate, with distributors reporting minimal replenishment activity.
In recent times, the exports have failed to offer meaningful relief to the market. In China, ethylene-vinyl acetate demand remains muted, especially from major end-use sectors like solar photovoltaics and footwear. China’s recent policy shifts on solar subsidies and ongoing uncertainty around export tariffs have dampened the desire for imported ethylene-vinyl acetate, reducing European suppliers' competitiveness. Moreover, downstream Chinese processors are already contending with oversupplied inventories and are limiting purchases, further reducing the potential offtake from European sellers.
Domestically, producers of ethylene-vinyl acetate are keeping operations lean and relying largely on contracted supply. While TotalEnergies' Gonfreville facility remains under force majeure, its impact has faded amid the recovery in Versalis’ production. Traders report that spot offers are unchanged, and transaction volumes remain light.
Upstream, ethylene prices have risen marginally, supported by stronger crude oil prices, while vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) prices have remained flat, offering only partial cost relief to producers. This has encouraged sellers to hold pricing firm, citing squeezed margins and a lack of upward pricing triggers.
Market participants view no strong near-term drivers that would change direction in the market. As the foam sector maintains solid purchasing, seasonal softness and inventory conservatism dominate. A national strike threat in Belgium recently and above-average yard usage at Antwerp, particularly at PSA's Q869 terminal, might pose small logistical challenges, but these are not seen to materially impact supply in today's low-demand environment.
According to the ChemAnalyst database, currently, the European ethylene-vinyl acetate market is finely balanced—neither tight nor oversupplied, with prices fluctuating in a thin range. Unless there is some dramatic change in downstream demand or production, this pattern of muted stability is expected to continue into early July.
