European Jet Kerosene Prices Likely to Rise throughout Q1 2023

As supplies in the region become more constrained and global aviation activity resumes, European jet fuel refining margins have returned to their pre-pandemic levels. Jet Kerosene cost in the European market has been increasing as the seaborne Russian refined product import ban imposed by the European Union on February 5th has put more pressure on European supplies and enhanced the need for US refiners to fill the gap. Meanwhile, a report provided by the US government, the inventories of Jet Kerosene in the US market are at their lowest level since 1990, and the demand is at the pre-covid levels, which drives up the prices in the US and ultimately raised the cost of Jet Kerosene in Europe.

Several refinery outages in the Gulf of Mexico further tightened the supply situation of Jet Kerosene to European countries. As a result, there are not many items in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) storage hub. Recent shipments of Jet Kerosene also went to Le Havre, France, and the United Kingdom, which supplies the Central European Pipeline System (CEPS). Few refineries in the European region have started switching to jet fuel from diesel to catch on with the rising cost of Jet Kerosene along with relatively weakening energy costs in Europe, and they could not limit the rising cost of the commodity in the EU.

According to ChemAnalyst, the cost of Jet Kerosene in Europe is likely to continue rising as the expansion of capacities is likely to fall short of the anticipated improvement in downstream airline performance and the majority of new facilities starting up too late for the summer season, global refiners will have limited flexibility to fulfill the significantly rising demand for jet fuel this year. Due to the increasing demand for diesel, distillate markets were constrained last year. Rising demand for Jet Kerosene will keep oil prices and refinery margins hot this year, yet persistent concerns about diesel may still keep a cap on jet yields.