The Recycled High-Density Polyethylene (R-HDPE) market in Germany softened in the beginning of November 2025 on the back of negative sentiment and concerns about oversupply. Prices dropped by 1.5% as demand from the downstream was still weak, cautious buying from converter and weak export interest added supply pressure.
The situation on the German R-HDPE market worsened further in the first half of November 2025, following the decreasing trend that had started after a short period of stability in October. The R-HDPE market showed a fall of around 1.5% in the beginning of the November, changing from the fairly balanced situation in the prior month. This was the result of growing negative sentiment in all segments of the recycled plastics market.
The R-HDPE supply balance experienced a shift with recyclers seeing consistent delivery of post-consumer material, but end users' demand lagging behind the availability of the material. R-HDPE producers reacted by reducing rates and focussing solely on the best quality grades. Downstream companies on the other hand, remained cautious and deferred buying decisions expecting the best possible prices. This cautious buying momentum resulted in oversupply situation and dented production margins for recyclers.
Market players said R-HDPE prices were influenced by multiple factors. Virgin HDPE prices decreased during the period, having the effect to reduce the price uplift usually applied to recycled options. This development lowered the competitiveness of R-HDPE in non-sustainability driven applications. Weaker export demand compounded the difficulties, as domestic recyclers were left holding R-HDPE stockpiles with insufficient demand outlets to absorb the material.
The packaging industry, stable up to October, began to show a slowdown in November. The food, beverages and cosmetics sectors continued to use R-HDPE to meet the sustainability criteria, but the volumes they procured dropped significantly. The hesitance of companies was a reflection of the general uncertainty in the market rather than a change in the fundamentals of commitment to sustainability.
The German automobile industry showed mixed signals over the period. Domestic production of cars fell 4% in the year, with export volume down 1%. Although there was the slight improvement in industry confidence indicators, the weak production stagnation prevented R-HDPE usage to regain in the automotive sector applications. Car suppliers cut back on their buying of recycled material, adding to the general softening demand for R-HDPE markets.
Looking toward December 2025, the R-HDPE market is expected to witness a further decline of 1.5%. A weakening in buying patterns is predicted as a result of seasonal downturns in construction activity and year-end inventory adjustments. Downstream buyers might become even more cautious due to uncertainties in trade policy, and prices for virgin HDPE under pressure could also reduce the demand for recycled plastics. Severe winter weather conditions might affect R-HDPE production as well as demand downstream from weather-sensitive industries.
