Global Ritonavir Prices Likely to Shift Momentum in Q1 2023 After Dismal Q4 2022

In comparison to previous months, the prices of Ritonavir, an Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API), were likely to remain low until the second last week of December 2022 in China and the United States. Several factors, including rising energy costs due to climatic changes, weak inquiries, and market closures, could support this decreased trend of Ritonavir in both regions during December 2022. Furthermore, as trading activities slowed down ahead of the year-end holidays, producers and traders rushed to clear their existing inventories.

Ritonavir prices have shown a downward trend in China since early December amid weak market fundamentals. However, China's zero-COVID-19 strategy has eased, but concerns remain the same amid the global economic crisis. Despite weaker end-user demand, overall supply levels were sufficient to fulfill the product requirements in the market. Market participants said that the demand for Ritonavir from end-user producers has been slowing down due to stockpiling of inventories, which has compelled them to destock their stocks at a lower rate. However, according to the recent trend, during the last week of December, the prices of all APIs, including Ritonavir, are expected to increase by around 12 percent to 25 percent. The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in China will likely affect the import momentum of all the pharmaceutical API imports across the globe. As a result, manufacturing activities are likely to begin to prevent downstream Ritonavir stocks' unavailability with the suppliers and traders.

Similar market sentiment is expected in the United States, where the price of Ritonavir fell at a rate of 1.67 percent in early December, primarily because of the Christmas break as the market was significantly closed, resulting in the stockpiling of inventories within the domestic market. Furthermore, exports from Asian countries such as China and India to North American and European countries such as the United States and Germany decreased significantly, and suppliers had enough to meet the necessities.

According to ChemAnalyst, "Global Ritonavir prices are likely to be on the upper end in the upcoming months.  The prices of key APIs, an essential ingredient used in making medicines, are predicted to surge considerably on the back of increased downstream demand from various end-user sectors. In addition, market participants might increase their stock level to prevent any further shortage owing to the resurgence of COVID-19 cases, which might affect logistic activities again.