Global Rock Phosphate Market Shows Diverging Regional Price Trends in July

Rock phosphate prices are expected to follow divergent trajectories across India, Egypt, and Morocco in July 2026, as each market navigates a distinct combination of supply normalization dynamics, domestic production conditions, and downstream agricultural demand patterns that will shape the near-term pricing environment for rock phosphate following a June period characterized by stability in India and Egypt and a 2.6% price increase in Morocco.

In India — the world's largest rock phosphate importing nation — prices are anticipated to see a modest decline in July 2026 following a broadly stable June. The primary driver of the anticipated July softening for rock phosphate is the progressive normalization of Middle East fertilizer supply flows following the US-Iran peace memorandum, with the Strait of Hormuz progressively reopening to phosphate and fertilizer vessel traffic. India-bound fertilizer ships began crossing the Hormuz strait from late June following the peace agreement, and the incremental improvement in cargo availability from Middle Eastern and North African origins is expected to reduce the supply scarcity premium embedded in Indian CFR import assessments through July. Rock phosphate prices in Egypt saw a slight 0.9% increase over the quarter but experienced a correction in June due to a domestic energy shock that disrupted fertilizer production, causing excess local rock phosphate to enter export markets and pressuring FOB Safaga prices, a dynamic that adds incremental supply to Indian CFR import channels through July and reinforces the mild downward pricing trajectory.

In Egypt, rock phosphate prices are expected to remain stable through July 2026 following a flat June performance. Egyptian phosphate exports through the Safaga and Abu Tartur supply channels have maintained consistent availability, with domestic production from Egyptian Phosphates and NCIC — which issued a sales tender in mid-July — operating at steady rates. Egyptian fertilizer producer NCIC issued a sales tender closing in July 2026, signalling active market engagement and adequate production output that is expected to maintain the supply-demand balance underpinning July price stability. The re-escalation of US-Iran tensions in July introduced some upside price risk for rock phosphate through the freight and war-risk insurance cost components of Egyptian export economics, but the net effect on FOB assessments is expected to be neutral, maintaining the stable pricing environment that characterized June.

In Morocco, rock phosphate prices are expected to remain stable in July 2026 following the 2.6% price increase recorded in June, as OCP Group — which controls approximately 75% of global phosphate reserves and exports — manages export allocation volumes to preserve the pricing gains achieved during the prior month. The US Department of Commerce recommended keeping countervailing duties in place for Moroccan phosphate imports despite an eight-month suspension implemented by President Trump in June, with Commerce determining that revocation of the duty order would likely lead to OCP receiving subsidies at a level of 20.04% from Morocco. This trade policy development introduces uncertainty for Moroccan phosphate flows into the US market, but European and Asian destinations — Morocco's primary export channels — continue to provide steady demand absorption for rock phosphate that supports stable July pricing.