In September 2025, India’s recycled high-density polyethylene (R-HDPE) market began with a small 1% price drop in the first week as buyers held off and August stocks were high. Prices then stayed level through the rest of the month and into early October. ChemAnalyst studies show R-HDPE supply and demand were even, with recyclers keeping production steady to meet regular demand from industries like packaging and construction.
ChemAnalyst findings note that the R-HDPE market in India managed September well. Buyers in packaging and construction started cautiously but soon returned to normal buying. The second, third, and fourth weeks of September saw no price changes, in line with a flat 12-week average that suggests a balanced market. A reliable flow of post-consumer scrap kept R-HDPE production smooth. The firm also reported weak export demand, so producers focused on domestic markets like agriculture and FMCG, which provided firm support.
In the first week of October, R-HDPE prices held steady, keeping the market calm. Supply chains dealt with minor weather issues well, letting producers control costs and maintain ample stock for demand. A steady scrap supply from better recycling efforts matched competition from virgin HDPE, which had stable costs tied to crude oil prices.
Downstream industries helped keep the market level. The packaging sector grew steadily in September, driven by demand from FMCG and e-commerce. Rules requiring 30% recycled content in rigid plastics increased R-HDPE use, helped by automation and closed-loop recycling. This firm demand took in the early price drop, keeping the market even.
In the automobile industry, September sales were mixed, with passenger vehicle sales down about 6% from last year due to GST 2.0 changes and festive delays. Maruti Suzuki sold 147,461 units domestically, less than the prior year, while Tata Motors grew with EV and CNG models, and Mahindra & Mahindra saw a 10% rise in SUV sales, aided by tax benefits. Honda saw declines. ChemAnalyst studies show moderate R-HDPE use for auto parts, as buyers chose short-term contracts amid policy shifts, matching the market’s level prices.
ChemAnalyst's forecast for R-HDPE prices this quarter suggests modest increases followed by a decline at year-end. In October, a price growth of 1% is expected, as preparations in the FMCG sector for the festive season lead to robust demand for packaging. Any growth in collection of plastic waste will improve the supply of feedstock, and narrow price gaps with virgin HDPE prices will allow for increases to production costs. November may bring another 1% rise in R-HDPE prices, driven by wedding-season demand for rigid plastics, with recycling rules further boosting R-HDPE use. Stable crude oil prices support pricing levels.
In December, a 1% price drop is expected as manufacturing slows and traders clear stocks. Lower export activity during global holidays may limit growth, but domestic demand should prevent big declines. Overall, Q4 looks stable for R-HDPE, with recyclers ready to navigate festive demand and economic changes, provided crude prices and demand recovery align as expected.
