The prices of lactic acid in the United States are poised to climb as the third quarter begins in July 2025, led by a combination of demand-side pressures, uncertainty in trade, and bottlenecking in key routes. According to market participants, bullish sentiment will drive pricing over the coming period.

Among the key reasons for the anticipated hike in the prices of lactic acid is the surge in demand from the downstream end-use sectors, mainly food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, and personal care, which tend to increase production in Q3 in anticipation of seasonal demand. The beginning of a new quarter being imminent would mean buying cycles would start anew, with U.S. buyers ordering fresh lactic acid and stocking up. This can result in scarcity and push up lactic acid prices.

China, the biggest exporter of lactic acid to the U.S., is likewise a major driver on the pricing front. However, some recent developments on the geopolitical front could again try the elasticity of the supply chain. Diplomatic tensions between China and the U.S., which had appeared to have dissipated following tariff concessions in mid-May, now seem to be on the increase. The uncertainty over the Aug. 14 deadline for the trade agreement is triggering fears of re-imposition or escalation of tariffs and is prompting U.S. purchasers to advance lactic acid shipments.

This anticipatory behavior is contributing to a spike in transpacific trade volumes. Ocean carriers have responded with aggressive scheduling, deploying record shipping capacity to the U.S. West Coast through July. Importers are favoring West Coast ports such as Los Angeles and Long Beach for quicker turnarounds amid fears of worsening trade friction post-deadline.

The resultant freight surge has already begun to exert pressure on logistics networks in Asia. Major Chinese ports, as well as key transshipment hubs like Singapore, are experiencing congestion due to the sudden influx of outbound cargo. Industry observers warn that this may lead to downstream effects in the U.S., particularly at high-volume entry points like LA and Long Beach, potentially exacerbating delays and inflating transport costs.

Adding to these pressures, spot container shipping rates between Asia and North America began rising sharply from June 1st following General Rate Increases (GRIs), further compounding the cost of importing goods, including lactic acid. These higher transportation costs are likely to be passed down the value chain, eventually reflecting in elevated lactic acid prices in the U.S. market.

With high demand, increasing freight charges, and impending trade wars, the Q3 forecast for lactic acid prices continues to be bullish. Apart from trade restocking and frontloading of procurement, seasonal summer demand will also put additional upward pressure. Lactic acid sees increased consumption during warmer months due to its widespread use in food preservation, beverages, cosmetics, and personal care products that are more in demand during the summer season.

As a result, market participants are expected to adopt a cautious but firm pricing strategy in response to the evolving global trade and supply environment. Buyers may look to secure lactic acid volumes early, while sellers could leverage tight availability and rising input costs to maintain a stronger pricing stance throughout the quarter.