During the week ending 26 September 2025, the methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) market followed divergent trajectories, with India and China recording steady price trends and the United States recording a sharp decline of 3.1% due to oversupply and tepid demand.
MIBK prices in China stayed stable throughout the week as local supply and demand fundamentals were balanced. Feedstock acetone prices were also stable, providing cost support to MIBK producers. Downstream plants had stocked up on pre-holiday inventories earlier in September to ensure uninterrupted production, providing firm support to prices. With the holiday-induced stocking now more or less completed, market players adopted a wait-and-see approach— domestic activity quieted.
On the export front, MIBK performance remained good. Southeast Asian, Middle Eastern, and other exports expanded, with active export inquiry and scheduling helping to ease domestic supply pressure. Although rigid demand persisted in pharmaceutical and chemical synthesis industries—segments such as adhesives and coatings continued to languish under the weight of a sluggish real estate industry, limiting domestic consumption growth for MIBK.
MIBK prices in India also remained stable, supported by a slight decline in the price of feedstock acetone, allowing producers to maintain operating rates steady. Supply also remained balanced, aided by South Korean imports falling in Q3 from previous quarters, and avoiding an oversupply scenario in the Indian domestic market.
Paints and coatings demand, a major downstream sector, also remained weak, reflecting poor construction and infrastructure development. The pharma industry, however, saw indications of a seasonal uptick, which may lend short-term support. Players in the market stated that the overall trend will depend on crude oil price direction and the post-monsoon pick-up in downstream industries.
Q3 export performance was improved, with exports to the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt) and South Asian markets of Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh recording more momentum than during the first half of the year.
The U.S. market was under firm downward pressure, with MIBK prices falling 3.1% for the week. Inventories that were high, coupled with persistently weak domestic demand, drove the decline. Feedstock acetone prices shed 1.0%, reducing production costs and undermining any cost-side support for MIBK prices— further encouraging bearish market sentiments.
Market conditions were described as "bearish" by participants, with producers and brokers discounting aggressively to move MIBK inventories. Sales in August and September remained slow, with buyers purposely holding off on purchases in anticipation of cheaper prices. Foreign demand from Europe continued to be subdued as well, with oversupply and weak consumption persisting on the continent. With limited prospects for a near-term upturn, U.S. sellers persisted in shouldering margin pressures heading into Q4 2025.
Looking ahead, ChemAnalyst anticipates that MIBK trends will hinge on crude trends, seasonal demand recovery, and export momentum, whereas U.S. oversupply concerns can prolong pricing pressures until Q4 2025.
