Market activity for Stainless Steel Hot Rolled Coil (SS HRC) remained bunch in overall markets with only a mild drop in prices, with mills continuing to cope with their energy and carbon expenses. Consequently, in November, trading of SS HRC variety saw a slight drop but continued to trade in a stable zone. However, towards the end of December, with rising Nickel prices and influence from new rules on EU CBAM, trends in this steel variety changed, with steel mills being drawn to harder offers for SS HRC and hinting that steel availability may turn scarce for Q1-2 2026.
The month of November closed with German SS HRC prices down approximately 0.8% from October. The pullback was shallow and kept market action flat but slightly bearish, nonetheless. There were no problems in production at mills, and raw material surcharges lessened slightly. Supplies of scraps improved following the demolition season and supported stable production at mills. While energy and carbon prices were factored into mill pricing, increases in production and rising inventory are suppressed, nonetheless.
Toward late December and into early 2026, nickel prices emerged as a major consideration influencing the cost of SS HRC. Nickel futures as well as the prevailing market prices escalated sharply due to Indonesia's decision to reduce the production of nickel ores as well as a drop in the U.S. dollar. On December 22, nickel futures recorded a sharp increase; this further accelerated the mills' conversion costs. Consequently, the base prices of SS HRC are expected to register periodic upward movements despite a weak demand.
The overall market situation is quite complex. Although the global supply of nickel is still more than required, the overall demand-supply situation and currency fluctuations are leading to uncertain market prices. Short term market fluctuations are expected, which would have an influence on how the SS HRC prices are quoted by the mill/service centers in the future. Market observations from the exchanges have revealed that the prices of nickel remain sensitive to policy changes from Indonesia as well as seasonal logistical problems. If this is the situation, German SS HRC buyers should prepare for higher target prices from the mill in March.
The cost of trade policies is further adding to the cost structure of the SS HRC market. The EU has already seen a reduction in Asian SS HRC imports, thanks to the upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The European mills now have enough scope to increase their prices. The producers are already raising their offer levels and extending the lead times to spring. The customers are delaying their imports because of CBAM, thus tightening the domestic market for the customers, despite the fact that actual demand has not increased. The customers find Asian imports cheaper, but the additional costs are deterring them.
Overall, the price of SS HRC in the coming Q1 2026 is expected to increase, and the market fluctuations will be dominated by the effects of nickel and CBAM. To stay on the positive side of the market, the buyers will need to diversify the purchases and stay updated on the latest developments pertaining to nickel and CBAM.
