In October 2025, Nitric acid prices in Germany and the United States were relatively stable, with balanced supply and conservative downstream demand preventing a significant change in prices. Producers in Europe and the U.S. were tactful in handling feedstock disruptions and tapped into inventories along with cautious purchasing in fertilizer and construction sectors limiting any price movement.
October saw no change in German Nitric acid pricing due to robust supply and limited demand. The shutdown and outage of Nutrien's Trinidad nitrogen production in Saudi Arabia caused disruptions to the worldwide feedstock ammonia supply, although European manufacturers were able to maintain continuity by maximising domestic output and utilising previously stockpiled ammonia inventories. Furthermore, Nitric acid production economics were bolstered by the drop in natural gas costs.
On the demand side, low wheat prices dampened farmer purchasing activity, therefore fertiliser makers chose conservative purchase techniques for Nitric acid. Downstream producers were also urged to postpone purchasing decisions due to uncertainty around compliance costs from the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
Export demand from France and Belgium lent minor support, particularly for sowing activity for winter wheat and barley. Construction activity was sluggish from tightening finances and political instability. In summary, the German nitric acid market exhibited a cautious balance, with supply satisfying subdued demand, and avoided price volatility.
In the United States, nitric acid prices were stable in October, with a balanced market due to steady supply and dull demand. Local ammonia production was temporarily reduced due to existing maintenance at a Louisiana ammonia facility, though manufacturers were able to recover from the deficiencies using previous stock and by obtaining replacement cargoes from Trinidad, among other supply locations. Asian exporters continued to offer nitric acid volumes to U.S. buyers at discounted prices due to high inventories, which have helped to offset the 9% increase in Drewry World Container Index.
Nitric acid demand from downstream fertiliser industry continued to be weak, as growers reluctantly purchased fertilizers due to poor farm economics and crop price levels along with tighter credit conditions. Construction demand was resilient in a moderate way — with ongoing infrastructure projects continuing —although site progress was disrupted by labour issues related to immigration enforcement, constraining consumption.
Going forward, Nitric acid prices are anticipated to be steady throughout Q4 in both Germany and the United States, while regional factors may cause minor changes. The growth of downstream buying appetite in Germany will depend on policy clarity regarding CBAM, and downstream fertilizer demand.
In the U.S., volatility in feedstock costs and maintenance schedules could put localized pressure on the Nitric acid market, but ample inventories and steady imports should continue to support supply. Fertilizer and construction demand recovery will be pivotal in driving any price movement, although current indicators continue to point toward stability amid a restrained purchasing environment.
