The nitro toluene market in September exhibited regionally diverse trends. In China, bearish market sentiment persisted due to weak downstream demand from dyes and textiles, combined with high domestic supply and lacklustre export demand to Japan and South Korea. Falling feedstock toluene prices due to crude volatility and refinery cuts diminished the producer's incentive to produce, and trading continued to be stunted. The textile sector, a key use sector, has been struggling with low cotton prices and a lack of activity from spinning mills, maintaining a cautious buying strategy and extending the weekly decreases to twelve weeks. On the other hand, the Indian market remained steady until early September when production remained stable, inventories were adequate, and demand from dyes, textiles, and pigments balanced. Towards the end of the month, however, bullishness began to develop due to the supportive policies related to GST reforms, the suspension of import duties on cotton, and the reopening of the PLI Scheme that encouraged textile sector optimism. With tight supply and strong demand, producers were able to pass the feedstock cost on downstream. In summary, deterioration was occurring in China while India seemed to be on the road to recovery.
The Nitro toluene market in September showed different trends across major Asian regions, where China was under bearish pressure while India was much more resilient and eventually shifted to a bullish tone. In China, weak demand, stagnant global trade, and declining feedstock prices weighed on the Nitro toluene market, while India benefitted from stable end-user consumption and eventually, policy-driven momentum in its textile sector.
Nitro toluene market sentiment in China displayed notably dullness for the first half of September. Supply levels of nitro toluene in the domestic market were quite high, and production remained steady for the most part, allowing East and South China to be fully stocked. Ultimately, demand from the dyeing and textile industries was weak, relating to seasonal slowdowns and weak cotton prices. Overall low offtake, in conjunction with nitro toluene producers decreasing production due to weaker prices points in feedstock toluene, created a slow trading situation. FOB Nitro toluene prices at Qingdao dropped down by 1.6% for the first week. Further pressure was evident in the export market of nitro toluene, as demand decreased in Korea and Japan where industrial activities had slowed and the demand for procurement had slowed as well. With both domestic market and export market having weak demand, this led to a more cautious approach to buying and extended the length of the already bearish trend of Nitro toluene.
As a key downstream consumer, the textile sector experienced limited growth in orders due to low spinning mill operating rates and short-term buying. Although toluene inventories tightened in pockets of China, concerns of cost push were subsumed by continued oversupply and stagnant downstream demand. After more than 12 weeks of consecutive decreases, the Chinese nitro toluene market was under significant downward pressure entering mid-September, with further softness anticipated. By mid- September, prices further declined by 1.7% and settling at USD 1770/MT.
In contrast, India exhibited a relatively steady nitro toluene market in early September. Domestic Nitro toluene production was running smoothly with no major disruptions, supported by ample stocks, and the market was balanced despite moderate feedstock increases. Demand from dyes, textiles, and pigments remained stable, and the market was able to maintain stability during the first half of the month.
By the middle to late September, momentum started moving north in India, where the textile sector began to benefit from the balance of policy measures and market reform that produced an improvement in consumption of nitro toluene. The reopening of the PLI Scheme application window, the cessation of cotton import duties, and GST adjustments in apparel improved sentiment, and the launch of the new PM MITRA textile parks accelerated production activity. Notably, this increase in textile-driven demand, alongside an increasing tightening supply, allowed manufacturers to pass on higher feedstock to buyers, lifting the overall tone of the market. By mid- week of September, prices pushed up by 2.3%, settling at USD 1259/MT.
In aggregate, September demonstrated a divergence in regional dichotomy: China’s nitro toluene market continued to be affected by oversupply and weak demand, while India nitro toluene market entered recovery from a phase of stability, supported by growing textile demand and consequential policy measures.
Looking ahead, China’s nitro toluene sector is still expected to be under pressure from sluggish textile-demand and ongoing large supply levels, with limited export support. In contrast, India could maintain bullish sentiment of nitro toluene owing to stronger textile sector activity, policy reform and restrained supply, although soaring feedstock costs could moderate the increase.
