In September, demand for sodium bicarbonate showed diversified trends in major markets. Tech Grade sodium bicarbonate fell in price in Singapore after reporting a moderate fall in industrial consumption. Prices for Food Grade sodium bicarbonate rose in China as a result of high demand from the food and beverage industry, especially for baking and preservation applications. Singapore's total level of production is stable but price fall and bearish sentiment market are induced by oversupply due to reopening of part of the plants. Strong consumer spending will be insufficient to counteract the low demand rebound, although the consumer spending remains stable. Additionally, global supply chain disruptions are impacting freight rates, affecting the timely transportation of sodium bicarbonate. Looking ahead, while demand fundamentals are robust, external factors such as inflation and potential trade tariffs may introduce uncertainty into the market.
Demand for sodium bicarbonate in major industries has exhibited varied trends. In Singapore, the price of Tech Grade sodium bicarbonate fell to USD 220/MT in September from USD 230/MT in August (a change of 4.3%). This is due to a modest reduction in industrial use, especially in industries that use sodium bicarbonate as a cleaner and pH balancer. Conversely, China Food Grade sodium bicarbonate price went up 6.3% to USD 186/MT in September from USD 175/MT in August as a result of increased demand from the food and beverages sector, mostly baking and food preservation applications. The pharmaceutical sector continues to be an important consumer with steady demand for sodium bicarbonate as an active ingredient in the majority of formulations.
The production aspect of the Singapore sodium bicarbonate market is presently steady in terms of production levels. Raw material prices have, however, fallen because of high inventories and poor demand, especially for soda ash. Production in total is on the higher end because different facilities reopened, thereby leading to an oversupply situation. In a bid to drive sluggish shipments, the suppliers cut prices, which led to a bearish market sentiment. In spite of the beginning of the conventional peak season, the rebound in demand has been weak. Such lack of synchronism between high supply and weak consumption still weighs on prices down. In China, as the cost of soda ash also decreases, inventory levels are also an issue as the production levels closely track the demand levels. The Singapore-China export correlation is also responsible for determining supply conditions because the two nations are principal manufacturers and exporters of sodium bicarbonate.
Quantitative Analysis:
Annual Trend: In the last two to three years, the trend for the price of sodium bicarbonate during this period has been seasonal, and the current downward trend is in line with usual market trends seen in past years.
Current Market Outlook: Over the next two to three months, the market for sodium bicarbonate will rise steadily. Demand fundamentals are strong, but external influences like inflation and possible trade tariffs will bring uncertainty into play.
Freight Market:
Freight and shipping reports show that core trade lanes concerning sodium bicarbonate exports and imports are suffering long-term global supply chain disruption. Higher freight rates and disruptions are affecting the timely transportation of sodium bicarbonate, which can have an impact on price and quantity in subsequent months. Stakeholders need to track these trends closely as they continue to navigate the changing market environment.
