In early October, stainless steel cold-rolled coil (SSCRC) prices maintained a flat market in Asia, while European markets were experiencing price increases from anticipated import controls. Pricing power and industrial demand was strengthening in Germany, while demand and supply-side pressure was considerably cooling in China, with regional factors coming together for a tentative but encouraging outlook.
Key highlights:
Germany
In Germany, market participants indicated that pricing power was strengthening for SSCRC. Speculative investment activity in the nickel market is considered to be an additional influence of the price. Increases in nickel prices have likely boosted raw material and ultimately increased production costs for SSCRC. On the other hand, demand for SSCRC remained robust; one of the strongest sectors is home appliances followed by industrial. Owing to these factors, prices climbed by 1.5% in the week ending on October 3.
Producers of SSCRC have made price increases for October due to having greater clarity around interest rate and tariff policies in the U.S., as well as rising costs for raw materials and operational costs. Even though demand for SSCRC has not fully recovered, supply constraints from China's anti-involution measures and production controls, coupled with an increase in costs to manufacture stainless, will support stable prices or increases in prices through the end of the fourth quarter. If there is better clarity around U.S. policies, we can expect increased market activity during the traditional peak season.
The European Commission is expected to present new restrictions on imports in October, which seek to reduce competition and may replace current safeguard measures that are set to expire next summer. These could likely be addressed sooner, compounding difficulties for the SSCRC market.
China
In China, SSCRC prices have remained stable in the past week. There have been holiday disruptions to shipments and sales as the majority of buyers completed pre-holiday purchasing, which has limited market activity. A sharp decline in futures prices weakened cost support, with the outlook for October broadly pessimistic. While September and October mark a seasonal increased demand period, recovery in downstream consumption for SSCRC remained weak, and buyer sentiment remained cautious. As the National Day holiday approached, anticipated stockpiling demand did not materialize, causing continued disappointment against trading volumes.
While there were production disruptions at some stainless-steel mills resulting from ultra-low emission upgrades and maintenance, overall output plans for SSCRC remained high, resulting in a generally loose supply environment. On the raw materials side, Tsingshan's increase in October tender prices for high-carbon ferrochrome were in line with market expectations; however, retail ferrochrome prices peaked, shape halted their prior upward and overall prices stabilized. Near the end of the week, the deterioration of high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) prices reduced cost support for SSCRC production.
The SSCRC price is anticipated to stay within the range for October because of persistent support from costs and strong demand. Internationally, a Q4 2025 forecast suggests the market is expected to stabilize for SSCRC prices given the recovery in raw material fundamentals, the supply-demand balance, and potential oversupply risk.
