In May 2025, the global stainless-steel market showed diverging price trends for Stainless Steel Hot Rolled Coil 201 (SSHRC), with China experiencing a price drop while Germany saw only a marginal decline. This divergence was shaped by varying regional dynamics—ranging from raw material costs and supply adjustments to demand uncertainties and trade risks. Despite hints of improvement in stainless steel and steel scrap prices, worldwide market sentiment remained cautious due to economic uncertainty, oversupply fears, and trade policy changes.

Key Takeaways:

• SSHRC prices in China fell 2.5% in May, driven by persistent oversupply and weak export demand.
• German SSHRC prices declined only 0.2%, supported by restrained domestic supply and cautious trading activity.
• Downstream demand remained weak in both regions, especially in the construction and automotive sectors.
• Inventory drawdowns and minimal restocking characterized the SSHRC buyer behaviour in Europe.
• Nickel pig iron (NPI) output rose in China, while refined nickel production declined due to cost pressures.

In China, SSHRC prices declined by 2.5% as persistent oversupply in the 200 series overwhelmed a fragile demand base. Although production cuts were reported, they were insufficient to counterbalance the high output levels, especially with mills reluctant to shut operations due to cost commitments. Export demand from key markets such as Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and the UAE remained sluggish, affected by weak international demand and recent tariff adjustments.

China's stainless steel production decline was 1.04%. The SSHRC 200 series production declined 4.82%, so it very clearly reflects the impact targeted margin control measures have on the market. The relatively abundant supply from the SSHRC 300 and 400 series, kept the overall pricing under pressure. As for the nickel-related feedstock situation, it was a mixed bag—Nickel Pig Iron was up thanks to more ore, refined nickel was down, and so were some of the stainless prices we used to figure the costs of stainless steel.

In contrast, SSHRC prices in Germany were off a negligible 0.2%. This minimal drop can be attributed to more disciplined production habits by European mills and the slowdown in activity during the holiday season when the market was closed for much of May. During this time, traders were tentative since negotiations for long-term contracts were paused due to issues regarding pricing between mills and OEMs.

SSHRC Buyers' unwillingness to take on new orders, was driven by macroeconomic fears, especially the slowdown in the Eurozone construction sector and a significant decline in new orders in Germany and France. Yet, unlike China, Germany is insulated from larger cuts in pricing because of limited competition from imports and localized draws on its inventories. While market mood remains tentative, the small price movement in SSHRC suggested a temporary stability from supply constrain, instead of demand.

ChemAnalyst suggests a global SSHRC market might remain uncertain for at least the short term, as price levels can still bounce around that nonetheless narrow range unless the underlying production strategy gets materially changed. With respect to China, until they can mitigate their surplus of supply and elevate their export order book, there likely won't be any trend change in their market. Conversely, German mills continue with restraint, not deep discounting and find sales patterns that work for them, it may lead to some stability with demand and price onset eventually. Overall, demand for SSHRC price globally will not begin to have a significant uplift unless we have a sustained support for raw material cost with a coordinated demand equilibrium, with the automotive, construction, and industrial sectors.