The global Urea market dominated varied market trends throughout the early week of May 2025. The market was stable to soft for the Asian market. Nevertheless, the price saw a significant increase for the North American market. Unstable demand patterns, trade tensions and reports of China's reinstatement to the export market defined the prevailing market dynamics.

Throughout the review period, the North American Urea prices saw an uptick. However, such an increase occurred even as the price of the core raw material Ammonia decreased at the same time. Among the leading drivers for such a potential shift in the prices was the lower level of involvement of core global traders in the international market, which restrained supply availability and exerted an upward pressure on prices. But there are signs of a likely resumption of Chinese exporters in the international Urea market, which, if confirmed, would alter trade flows and influence price trends in the near-term future. In addition, on the demand side, Urea buying activity was fairly subdued during the week in question. Locally, expectations for increased corn planting have put a bid in demand. Market observers have referred to estimates of more than 95 million acres of corn being seeded, which would considerably propel fertilizer demand over the next few weeks. Further, extensive spring tillage throughout a large portion of the U.S. Midwest has supported the seasonal demand peak.

In the Asian market, though, the Urea market was soft to stable. In China Urea prices fall. Demand-wise, consumption was weak both locally and internationally, mainly on account of the end of the main planting season and continued geopolitical uncertainties, which weakened overall sentiment in the market.

But in India the Urea prices did not change. On the supply side, stocks of both domestic production and import Urea were adequate to satisfy end-user demand.  Domestic production kept running at stable levels, with inventory quantities up to meet market requirements prevailing at the time. Market players signaled that India's May 2025 Urea production is expected to range upto   2.55 million tonnes (Mt). On the local demand side, Urea buying activity in the domestic Indian market was stable, with transactions mainly taking place under prevailing contractual commitments. Key buyers such as Fertilizers and Chemicals Travancore (FACT), Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative Limited (IFFCO), and Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) have already locked up their necessary volumes.

Urea prices are expected to remain volatile in the near future, influenced by the start of regular planting cycles and feedstock price fluctuations, especially Ammonia, suggests ChemAnalyst. These would likely create near-term uncertainties in production economics as well as downstream demand and thus add to the pricing volatility.