Urea Prices Exhibit Mixed Market Sentiments Across the Globe During H2 of October 2023

Urea prices exhibited mixed sentiments across the globe throughout the second half of October 2023. Prices prevailed in a bullish trend in European and Middle Eastern regions amidst supply issues while declining marginally in the North American region. The decline was driven by subdued demand and surplus availability of materials.

In the North American region, the Urea prices dipped during the second half of October 2023. This price decline is mainly attributed to the surplus material availability within the domestic market. As per insights from various market participants, transportation lines in the U.S. remain constrained during this week due to low water in the Mississippi River. The unusual heat and dryness have been linked to the El Nino weather pattern, also causing a severe drought draining the Mississippi River and disrupting shipments to the North of Brazil. This has led to ample availability of material within the domestic market. Demand for Urea from the international market was moderate during this period. However, demand from the domestic market remained muted.

However, in the Middle Eastern region, Urea prices surged marginally during the second half of October 2023. Primarily, after China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) continued to halt its fertilizers exports, many international consumers, mainly Indian market players, were active in the Saudi Arabia market to secure Urea for Rabi crop planting season within the country. Secondly, following maintenance work at Saudi Arabia's leading Ma'aden Ammonia plant, there was a shortage of raw materials in the market. This led to a limitation in Urea production activities within the country. The confluence of these factors prompted a widened disparity between demand and supply, thus supporting the increasing price trend. However, the plant resumed production in the last week of October 2023.

Further, in the European region, participants in the fertilizer industry are currently facing challenges because the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to an immediate suspension of fertilizer loadings, including Urea, at the key export hub of Yuzhny. This has further worsened the supply situation of the Urea in the European region, thus leading to a scarcity of material in the European market.

As reported by ChemAnalyst, it is expected that Urea prices will witness a worldwide rise in the upcoming months. This increase in prices can be attributed to the constrained supply situation in the global market and the higher costs of critical raw materials, such as Ammonia and upstream natural gas. The persisting challenges in Urea production and transportation infrastructure are likely to have an ongoing impact on the market, contributing to these price escalations.