During the middle of December, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (AHF) prices in both the United States and China were stable due to the increased cost of production but were held back by a lack of demand downstream. In China, the price of sulfuric acid continued to rise, putting pressure on AHF producers through increased prices for raw materials, while prices of fluorite have remained stable, somewhat mitigating any cost pressures. In both regions, demand for AHF from refrigerant manufacturers was weak, as most manufacturers had already used all the quota, they had available for that year; this resulted in customers limiting their purchases. Since most of the market had essentially run out of product at the end of the year, people were adopting a wait-and-see attitude regarding future activity. Between the pressures on producers, costs being supported through firm pricing, and the decrease in consumption through lack of customers, the AHF prices remained stable between the two countries with very little volatility expected in the near term.
Anhydrous Hydrofluoric Acid (AHF) pricing was relatively stable in mid-December, due to the cost side and demand side counterbalancing one another. At the time there were still upward pressures being placed on AHF production economics due to rising raw material costs (i.e., sulfuric acid), while weak downstream demand, especially from the refrigerant industry has kept suppliers from implementing price increases. As the year ends AHF market players in the US and China have become more conservative with their purchasing strategies to keep inventories at safe levels and to concentrate on the purchase of necessary materials.
The continued increase in prices of sulfuric acid in China has led to a sharp rise in the cost pressure for producers of AHF. In contrast to sulfuric acid prices, fluorite prices remained relatively unchanged which prevented further cost increases. The combination of these two factors resulted in overall cost support for AHF and consequently, the ability to maintain price levels despite weak consumption. In the US, the elevated production costs due to the continued upward trend in production costs were dampened by an ample domestic supply along with a lack of demand, contributing to stable AHF market prices as well.
Contractors in both markets encountered common obstacles on the supply side, which stemmed from low purchasing volumes. At year's end, downstream manufacturers of refrigerants had used a significant portion of their yearly production allocation, with the effect of limiting purchases only to what was necessary. Buyers adopted a wait-and-see mentality, limiting purchases to those needed now. Consequently, the capacity for consumption in these sectors was not high enough to result in upward AHF price movement, and in fact contributed to the stability of pricing, rather than creating volatility, within the two markets.
Container prices went up and down this week both in the US and Asia but none of these price fluctuations impacted the price of AHF. However, the recent news that some cargo traffic is likely to return to the Red Sea created a new uncertainty about future shipping capacity that may or may not be absorbed by existing shipping companies already facing vibrantly competitive rates and therefore playing an indirect role in moving chemicals between Asia and US West Coast.
The market for AHF is projected to be solid but steady in the foreseeable future in both China and the US. The cost of AHF will benefit from higher prices for sulphuric acid and stable prices for fluorite may help ensure that there are no unanticipated surges in anhydrous hydrogen fluoride Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) price volatility. In contrast, as production quotas do not reset, downstream demand for AHF will not increase to a meaningful degree resulting in continued lack of demand.
Changes in the supply discipline of AHF, trends associated with raw materials, and a recovery in refrigerant demand will dictate the direction of any price change. Until then, prices are expected to be stable (narrow range) for the rest of December and early 2026 due to the continual cost pressures associated with the AHF market and weak end-user consumption.
