Copper rod prices in the U.S. surged in late November, fueled by supply strains, record premiums, and accelerating AI driven demand. With looming concentrate deficits, competition is intensifying, setting the stage for further price pressures into 2026.
Copper rod prices sharply rose in late November across U.S. markets, reflecting the increasing pressure within the wider copper trade. On the macroeconomic front, copper contracts on the U.S. Comex exchange continue to command a premium over the London Metal Exchange and are expected to maintain the trend. Meanwhile, copper itself climbed to a record high on the LME amid growing concerns that the global market is bracing for a supply crunch.
Copper rod markets are feeling the strain as Chile’s state-owned producer moves to sell copper at record premiums, exceeding USD 500 per metric ton, to U.S. buyers tied to London Metal Exchange pricing. Concerns over supply shortages—driven by mine accidents in Indonesia and Chile and expectations of accelerating demand growth—have propelled LME copper prices to historic highs. With treatment charges at historically low levels, sellers are exploring alternatives to the traditional TC/RC contract model, including “virtual tolling,” to safeguard margins. Export data from leading suppliers such as Chile, Peru, and Australia further indicate sustained momentum in the physical tariff trade, underscoring continued pressure on copper rod availability.
On the demand side, copper rod consumption is entering uncharted territory, shaped by tariff-driven trade flows and accelerating AI-related growth. The relentless expansion of data centers in North America is fueling copper rod demand, with Amazon’s USD 8 billion Project Rainier—30 interconnected facilities in Indiana equipped with Trainium 2 servers—standing as a landmark initiative supporting Anthropic’s Claude LLMs. The U.S. Department of Energy has also opened its Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee for private AI data center development with on-site power generation, marking its first major step toward federal land use for AI infrastructure. Rising grid investments further underscore copper rod’s critical role, as operators race to modernize and expand networks to meet surging electricity demand from data centers, new manufacturing facilities, and the broader electrification of the economy.
Driven by macroeconomic shifts and resilient demand, copper rod prices in the U.S. rose 1.76% in late November. Looking forward, trading houses are bidding aggressively for concentrates in deeply negative TC territory, anticipating a 300,000 tonne copper concentrate deficit by 2026 and competing with new entrants to secure market share. These dynamics are expected to push copper rod prices higher at the outset of 2026.
