In the U.S., Paraffin wax prices remained stable over the week ending 28 November 2025. Consistent import flows, steady upstream operations, and seasonal demand from candle manufacturers kept the cautious consumer spending in balance and, hence, market sentiment flat.
Supply conditions for Paraffin wax in the U.S. remained resilient on the back of reliable import flows and stable upstream operations in key exporting regions. In China — the largest global supplier — Lanzhou Petrochemical was the only major refinery under maintenance, while other plants, continued to operate normally. As a result, national production and inventories did not change significantly, which ruled out any significant tightening on the export side. Correspondingly, sellers chose a more cautious approach, keeping quoted offers firm rather than cutting prices to chase after thin margin sales, thus safeguarding profitability.
Logistics also helped to solidify the stability, with Drewry’s World Container Index declining by 2.8% to mitigate the freight-induced landing cost pressure on U.S. buyers. With no supply disruptions, stable refinery runs and softened freight rates on the sea, supply-side conditions overall favoured flat Paraffin wax prices.
On the demand side, Paraffin wax consumption in the U.S. was supported by the seasonal lift associated with the start of the holiday period. The proportion of candle makers, particularly those producing decorative and gift-oriented items, increased procurement to align with year-end production schedules. But that support was tempered by signals from retail sector. Bath & Body Works, one of the largest scented-candle retailers in the U.S., projected a high single-digit drop in fourth-quarter sales, citing a decline in demand for its more expensive scented candles as shoppers on a budget moved to cheaper options.
Spending patterns for Thanksgiving and Black Friday this year reinforced this trend, with shoppers spending more overall than last year but concentrating their spending on more discounted or value-oriented items. These contrasting forces—seasonal strength versus cautious discretionary spending—balanced each other out, making demand firm but insufficient to drive price gains for Paraffin wax.
Looking ahead, Paraffin wax prices in the U.S. are expected to be range-bound as balanced fundamentals –solid supply versus moderated demand– are likely to persist. Chinese export reliability and softer freight costs are expected to bolster supply stability, while sellers' discipline should prevent any downward pressure on Paraffin wax prices. On the demand side, near-term support from holiday consumption is anticipated as well, but moderate growth in premium candle sales and selectivity of consumer spending might cap growth for Paraffin wax.
Now that the end of the year is in sight, Paraffin wax converters will probably take a steady seasonal cautious stance on buying rather than get aggressive with building stocks. In general, the market is likely to remain stable with a firm, but not strong upside as balanced fundamentals keep the US Paraffin wax price flat in the short run.
