Prices for Recycled High-Density Polyethylene (R-HDPE) in the USA continued to decrease in November 2025, falling by around 0.5% per week, extending a bearish trend pricing-wise that had been ongoing for some time. This was due to competition from virgin HDPE prices and weakness in demand from end-users, which put pressure on the R-HDPE market, despite commitments for sustainability.
The R-HDPE market in the USA remained weak through November 2025, with prices dropping steadily in main centres of trading. R-HDPE prices on FOB Houston for the second week of November fell around 0.5%, the twelfth straight week of bearish trend. The bearish trend continued in the third week, with R-HDPE prices on Ex-Works Nebraska basis dropped further by 0.5% due to weak market.
Market players struggled as virgin HDPE traded at large premiums over the recycled grades, heavily weighing on R-HDPE prices. The competitive prices of virgin resins remained the biggest barrier for recyclers trying to hold on to margins, especially as discounted prices for virgin resins reduced demand for recycled materials in non-mandated applications. With sustainability programs and recycled content pledges acting as floor support, the inherent cost disadvantage curtailed upward movement in R-HDPE prices through November.
Market conditions associated with production and supply saw recycling companies taking a precautious approach to operations in November 2025. R-HDPE producers were steady efficient while managing stocks in a weakened demand environment from the users in the lower tier. Feedstock situation was mixed with some temporary shortages in sorted post-consumer bale sharpening the availability for high-grade R-HDPE material, but on the whole availability was sufficient for moderate demand.
Downstream consumption trends varied among end-use industries. The packaging industry remained a steady R-HDPE buyer through November as producers focussed on recycled-content goals and sustainability regulations. This steady activity in the packaging segment helped R-HDPE demand hold firm, postponing further price decline in the face of a very challenging competitive situation. The automobile market, by contrast, weakened significantly as slower vehicle production meant fewer orders for recycled plastic parts employed on the interiors and under-hood in cars.
Activity in the construction industry remained weak through November, which weighed on overall R-HDPE demand. The weakness in orders from automotive sector was further intensified by the cuts in construction spending and delays in projects although these negative factors were partially offset by the strength in packaging. The muted impact of the mixed sectoral performance meant that the R-HDPE prices softened on a gradual basis instead of crashing which was also a reflection of market balance between the opposing forces.
Looking ahead to December 2025, further price decreases are anticipated in the R-HDPE market, with a forecast of approximately 1% decline. Seasonal construction activity slowdown and year-end inventory compression are expected to undermine procuring trends as buyers turn cautious and start to reduce R-HDPE procurement ahead over the holiday season. Potential uncertainties in the trade policy and possible tariffs implications could lead downstream buyers to postpone buying decisions, leading recyclers to bid more intensively for R-HDPE inventory.
In addition, growing pressure from lower virgin HDPE prices is expected to continue limiting the demand for R-HDPE in cost-driven rather than green applications, putting downward pressure to the market until the end of the year.
