Sugar prices in the USA dropped due to sluggish market movement and predictions of a global surplus sugar inventory in November 2025. Crop risks were exacerbated by unusually warm and dry weather in Louisiana and cooler and drier weather in Florida, which continued to be challenges to production. Processors held offers close to 48 cents/lb because of quality concerns, while Midwest beet sugar prices reflected additional price weakness of 2 cents/lb near the low end, given spillover from global prices near five-year lows. Domestic demand further suffered due to tightening SNAP regulations and increased use of GLP-1 medications, while uncertainty on trade remained due to Brazil's 50% sugar tariff.
Sugar prices in the United States continued their decrease in November 2025, extending the trend that began in October. Activity in the market continued to be slow, and cash sales had become irregular, with the futures market remaining sluggish in the face of forecasts of a world surplus.
The U.S. ranks among the biggest sugar producers in the world. The sugar industry in the U.S. has sugar beet production in the northern states, including Minnesota, North Dakota, Idaho, and Michigan, and sugarcane production in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. Despite the high productivity, there are issues related to labor, water, and weather. The trends in the November market were influenced by the same factors among others globally.
In Florida, the temperatures were cooler than normal, and the region was drier than usual, making cane yields uncertain. The average temperature over a week was 20.22 degrees Celsius, lower than the normal average of 24.30 degrees Celsius, and the average rainfall recorded was 1.73mm, lower than the normal average of 53.04mm. The situation in Louisiana was the reverse, with temperatures higher than normal, standing at 21.35 degrees Celsius, posing a threat to the crop. The rainfalls were also lower than the normal average, measuring 2.66mm, lower than the normal average of 16.35mm.
Midwest beet sugar prices were steady to lower, reflecting the spillover effect of world sugar prices, which approached five-year lows earlier this month. The spot price range for the 2025-26 crop-year beet sugar was reduced by 2 cents/lb at the lower end, making the U.S. product more attractive compared with imports. However, some buyers said they saw even lower prices, although the processor bid was still at or near 48 cents/lb due to weather and beet quality uncertainties.
The warm weather also posed an increased risk. There was the risk that an early harvest could hurt the beet piles outdoors and lower the sucrose content, and producers were wary about reducing the numbers lower until there was a larger harvest that could be worked through. Futures prices continued to be tempered by the prediction from the International Sugar Organization that the world would experience a surplus of 1.625 million metric tons in the 2025-26 marketing year.
The outlooks on the domestic demand side also contributed. There are some states where the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, has imposed tougher regulations on the purchase of sugary items, such as soda and candy. However, the growing accessibility of GLP-1 treatments in the United States could lower the consumption of sugar, given the role that these treatments play in managing appetite.
Trade policy also added an element of uncertainty. While some tariffs on imported foods were waived in mid-November, the 50% tariff on sugar from Brazil was left intact.
As per ChemAnalyst, the trend in the U.S. sugar price in November was in line with the downtrend observed in the month of October. The sugar prices are likely to remain under pressure in the short run.
