US TDI markets shifted from a sideways stance to an upturn by late March, driven more by sentiment and geopolitical risk than a supply shock. Early March saw assessed values steady as downstream restocking waned; mid-month sentiment turned constructive and pushed assessments higher toward month-end. Inventories remained in seasonal range and Gulf Coast plants operated with no outages, yet higher aromatics risk and freight and insurance costs fed a risk premium underpinning the rally. Demand was mixed across end-use sectors, creating a bifurcated market: flexible polyurethane foam for mattresses and residential furniture held routine order patterns, while automotive seating demand remained soft; converters largely stayed on formula contracts, muting spot activity. Domestic production covered the bulk of U.S. consumption while imports accounted for a smaller share, and Gulf Coast capacity provided a buffer. Analysts see upside near term, with a lift anticipated, supported by war risk, elevated freight and insurance costs, and panic buying, tempered by inventories and operating rates.
