Will China's Aluminium Wire Market Recover from the July Downward Spiral?

Will China's Aluminium Wire Market Recover from the July Downward Spiral?

Nicholas Sparks 14-Aug-2026
The Chinese aluminium wire market experienced a sharp downturn in July, driven by the simultaneous collapse of export and domestic demand channels. The export window effectively closed as the price spread advantage eroded, while State Grid's cargo pick-up remained sluggish, further squeezing order intake. Manufacturers slashed operating rates, and processing fees retreated from three-year highs amid a structurally oversupplied aluminium wire market. While the new energy sector demonstrated some resilience, it was insufficient to offset broader contraction. In June, aluminium wire exports had surged to record levels on concentrated order deliveries, but this proved temporary as contract cancellations emerged entering July. Looking ahead, the aluminium wire market outlook hinges on whether the September-October peak season can revive demand, with recovery dependent on State Grid tender acceleration and aluminium substitution trends in power transmission.

The Chinese aluminium wire market experienced a pronounced downturn in July ****, with the industrial manufacturing plunging into contraction territory. This sharp deterioration was driven by the simultaneous collapse of both export and domestic demand channels. The export window for aluminium wire effectively closed as the price spread advantage between Chinese and overseas markets eroded, causing new export orders to plummet—the new export orders index registered a catastrophic **.**, down **.* percentage points from June. Meanwhile, State Grid&#**;s cargo pick-up pace remained sluggish, with tender progress lagging behind the same period last year, further squeezing domestic order intake. The production index for aluminium wire and cable fell to **.**, down **.* percentage points from June&#**;s **.**, as manufacturers slashed operating rates in response to the order gap. Operating rates for aluminium wire and cable declined to **.** by mid-July, down * percentage points week-on-week, with further downside expected as prior export orders are...

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