For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Almond Prices in North America
- In United States, the Almond Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by escalating water procurement costs.
- Retail sales grew 4.0% year-over-year in March 2026, while consumer inflation reached 3.3%, supporting Almond demand.
- The Almond Production Cost Trend increased in March 2026 as producer prices rose 4.0% year-over-year for agricultural inputs.
- Industrial production expanded 0.7% year-over-year in March 2026, and the Manufacturing Index expanded, boosting Almond demand.
- Unemployment reached 4.3% and consumer confidence hit 91.8 in March 2026, sustaining the premium Almond Demand Outlook.
- Export demand strengthened significantly in February 2026 and March 2026, driven by robust shipments to India and Europe.
- Uncommitted industry inventories tightened modestly by February 2026 as strong export sales absorbed available supply.
- The Sierra Nevada snowpack plummeted at an accelerated rate in March 2026 due to record-breaking heatwaves.
- The Almond Price Forecast indicated an upward trajectory in March 2026 as the Almond Price Index climbed.
Why did the price of Almond change in March 2026 in North America?
- Water procurement costs escalated for growers in March 2026 due to critically low snowpack levels.
- Export shipments to Southeast Asia and the Middle East surged in Q1 2026, tightening supply.
- Producer prices rose 4.0% year-over-year in March 2026, reflecting elevated costs for agricultural processing operations.
Almond Prices in APAC
- In China, the Almond Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by weakened import demand.
- Sluggish retail sales growth of 1.7% in March 2026 reduced consumer spending on premium Almond snacks.
- The Almond Demand Outlook declined as the 5.4% unemployment rate in March 2026 strained household budgets.
- The Almond Production Cost Trend increased as producer prices rose 0.5% year-over-year in March 2026.
- Industrial production grew 5.7% and the Manufacturing Index expanded in March 2026, supporting processing throughput.
- Mild consumer inflation of 1.0% in March 2026 restricted pricing power for premium Almond retail products.
- United States Almond shipments to China plummeted during January 2026 amid shifting international trade flows.
- The Almond Price Forecast declined as shelled almond import values into China contracted in March 2026.
Why did the price of Almond change in March 2026 in APAC?
- Shelled almond import demand and overall import values in China contracted during March 2026.
- Sluggish retail sales and rising unemployment in March 2026 reduced consumer spending on premium nuts.
- Low consumer confidence of 86.0 in Q1 2026 deterred purchases of non-essential premium health foods.
Almond Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Almond Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by surging upstream feedstock costs.
- Consumer inflation rose 2.7% while retail sales declined 2.0% in March 2026, weakening downstream Almond purchasing power.
- The Manufacturing Index contracted and industrial production remained stagnant at 0.0% in February 2026, suppressing industrial demand.
- Producer prices fell 0.2% and unemployment reached 4.0% in March 2026, reflecting broader economic softness across Germany.
- Consumer confidence dropped to -24.7 in March 2026, weakening the Almond Demand Outlook in chemical blending applications.
- The Almond Production Cost Trend pointed upward across Europe during Q1 2026 due to naphtha supply tightening.
- Geopolitical disruptions around Middle Eastern energy corridors tightened trade availability and elevated shipping expenses in Q1 2026.
- The Almond Price Forecast indicated continued pressure as high inventories dampened fresh buying interest throughout Q1 2026.
Why did the price of Almond change in March 2026 in Europe?
- Rising upstream crude oil prices elevated naphtha production costs significantly across the region throughout Q1 2026.
- Constrained import cargo availability from key supplying regions tightened overall market supply dynamics in Q1 2026.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East surged energy and shipping expenses for feedstocks during Q1 2026.
For the Quarter Ending December 2025
Almond Prices in North America
- In United States, the Almond Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, driven by increasing production costs and sustained consumer spending.
- Almond production costs increased in Q4 2025, influenced by a 3.0% year-over-year rise in PPI in November 2025.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025, raising operational expenses for almond growers.
- Almond demand remained robust, supported by a 3.3% year-over-year increase in retail sales in November 2025.
- Industrial production expanded 2.0% year-over-year in December 2025, boosting demand for almonds in processed food applications.
- The 4.4% unemployment rate in December 2025 supported consumer purchasing power, bolstering demand for almond products.
- Consumer confidence, at 89.1 in December 2025, showed cautious sentiment, potentially impacting discretionary spending on premium almonds.
- The Almond Price Index is forecast to remain firm into early 2026, supported by persistent cost pressures and steady consumer demand.
Why did the price of Almond change in December 2025 in North America?
- Rising production costs, evidenced by a 2.7% year-over-year CPI increase in December 2025, pressured almond prices upward.
- Strong consumer spending, indicated by a 3.3% year-over-year rise in retail sales in November 2025, supported almond demand.
- Increased industrial production by 2.0% year-over-year in December 2025 boosted demand for almonds in various applications.
Almond Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Almond Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, driven by weak demand and increased competitive pressure.
- Almond demand outlook declined in Q4 2025, influenced by weak consumer sentiment of -12.0 in December 2025.
- Almond production costs for manufacturers decreased, as the Producer Price Index fell by 2.5% year-on-year in December 2025.
- Industrial production remained stagnant at 0.0% year-on-year in October 2025, dampening almond demand from manufacturing.
- Retail sales grew by 1.8% year-on-year in December 2025, offering some support to consumer-facing almond products.
- The unemployment rate remained low at 3.8% in December 2025, supporting consumer purchasing power.
- Weak foreign orders for the chemical industry in October 2025 contributed to reduced almond trade flows.
- Increased competitive pressure from abroad compelled companies to lower prices in October 2025.
Why did the price of Almond change in December 2025 in Europe?
- Consumer confidence declined to -12.0 in December 2025, reducing discretionary spending on almond products.
- Producer Price Index fell by 2.5% year-on-year in December 2025, lowering production costs for manufacturers.
- Increased competitive pressure from abroad compelled companies to lower prices in October 2025.
Almond Prices in APAC
- In China, the Almond Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, driven by expanded supply and weakened feedstock costs.
- Sluggish 0.9% retail sales, 5.1% unemployment, and weak 0.8% CPI in December 2025 suppressed premium consumer demand.
- Deflationary -1.9% PPI and low 89.5 consumer confidence in December 2025 aligned with weakened Almond Production Cost.
- Industrial production grew 5.2% and the Manufacturing Index expanded in December 2025, supporting steady downstream processing activity.
- The Almond Demand Outlook fluctuated as fragrance restocking strengthened while agrochemical precursor consumption varied in Q4 2025.
- Domestic Almond inventories stabilized in October 2025, while normalized operating rates expanded available supply in December 2025.
- Import arrivals strengthened in December 2025, prompting exporters to offer discounted Almond supplies into regional APAC markets.
- Naphtha feedstock prices weakened alongside broader energy trends, reducing cost support for toluene production during Q4 2025.
- The Almond Price Forecast reflected continued pressure as year-end inventory balancing weakened buying urgency in December 2025.
Why did the price of Almond change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Weakened toluene and naphtha feedstock costs significantly lowered overall Almond production expenses in December 2025.
- Strengthened import arrivals and normalized domestic operating rates expanded available Almond supply in December 2025.
- Year-end inventory balancing and downstream stock rationalization weakened overall market buying urgency in December 2025.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
Almond Prices in North America
- In United States, the Almond Price Index rose in Q3 2025, driven by increased production costs and robust retail sales.
- Almond production costs increased in Q3 2025, influenced by a 2.6% Producer Price Index rise in August 2025.
- Consumer purchasing power faced pressure from a 3.0% CPI increase in September 2025, impacting almond demand.
- Almond demand was mixed; strong retail sales (5.42% in September 2025) offset declining consumer confidence.
- The 4.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 pressured consumer spending on premium almonds.
- Industrial production, up 0.1% in September 2025, indicated sluggish food processing activity, impacting almond demand.
- Natural gas prices eased in August 2025, yet rising input costs (including natural gas) pressured almond manufacturing margins.
- Almond price forecast suggests upward pressure from persistent cost inflation and resilient retail consumer spending.
Why did the price of Almond change in September 2025 in North America?
- Rising production costs, evidenced by a 3.0% CPI increase in September 2025, pressured almond prices upward.
- Strong retail sales (5.42% in September 2025) supported almond demand, counteracting lower consumer confidence.
- Weak industrial production (0.1% in September 2025) suggested slower demand from almond processing.
Almond Prices in APAC
- In China, the Almond Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, due to weakening consumer confidence and industrial demand.
- Almond demand outlook softened as China's CPI decreased by 0.3% in September 2025, indicating disinflation.
- Production costs for Almond faced pressure from a 2.3% decrease in China's PPI in September 2025, reflecting weak industrial demand.
- The Manufacturing Index in China was contracting in September 2025, impacting Almond ingredient demand due to reduced industrial activity.
- Despite 3.0% retail sales growth year-over-year in September 2025, domestic demand for Almond softened in Q3 2025.
- China's industrial production increased by 6.5% year-over-year in September 2025, offering some support for industrial Almond applications.
- Low consumer confidence (89.6) and 5.2% unemployment in September 2025 dampened discretionary spending on Almond products.
- Persistent overcapacity in China's chemical industry during Q3 2025 created a challenging market for raw materials.
Why did the price of Almond change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Weakening consumer confidence at 89.6 in September 2025 reduced discretionary spending on Almond products.
- China's PPI decreased by 2.3% in September 2025, indicating falling producer prices and weak industrial demand for Almond.
- The Manufacturing Index was contracting in September 2025, signaling reduced industrial activity affecting Almond ingredient purchases.
Almond Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Almond Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by contracting industrial activity.
- Almond production costs softened in September 2025, influenced by a 1.7% decrease in producer prices year-over-year.
- The Almond demand outlook remains subdued due to a contracting Manufacturing Index in Q3 2025.
- Industrial production declined 1.0% in September 2025, further dampening almond demand in manufacturing applications.
- Consumer spending on almond products faced pressure from a 2.4% CPI increase in September 2025.
- Retail sales saw a modest 0.2% increase in September 2025, supported by stable 6.3% unemployment.
- Almond price forecast suggests continued stability with potential for slight declines amid persistent industrial weakness.
- Elevated natural gas prices in Europe during Q3 2025 contributed to overall higher operational costs for processors.
Why did the price of Almond change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Contracting Manufacturing Index in Q3 2025 reduced industrial demand for almonds, exerting downward price pressure.
- A 1.7% decrease in producer prices year-over-year in September 2025 softened production costs for almond-containing goods.
- Rising consumer prices (CPI up 2.4% in September 2025) impacted discretionary spending on almond products.
