For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In United States, the Almond Price Index rose in Q3 2025, driven by increased production costs and robust retail sales.
• Almond production costs increased in Q3 2025, influenced by a 2.6% Producer Price Index rise in August 2025.
• Consumer purchasing power faced pressure from a 3.0% CPI increase in September 2025, impacting almond demand.
• Almond demand was mixed; strong retail sales (5.42% in September 2025) offset declining consumer confidence.
• The 4.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 pressured consumer spending on premium almonds.
• Industrial production, up 0.1% in September 2025, indicated sluggish food processing activity, impacting almond demand.
• Natural gas prices eased in August 2025, yet rising input costs (including natural gas) pressured almond manufacturing margins.
• Almond price forecast suggests upward pressure from persistent cost inflation and resilient retail consumer spending.
Why did the price of Almond change in September 2025 in North America?
• Rising production costs, evidenced by a 3.0% CPI increase in September 2025, pressured almond prices upward.
• Strong retail sales (5.42% in September 2025) supported almond demand, counteracting lower consumer confidence.
• Weak industrial production (0.1% in September 2025) suggested slower demand from almond processing.
APAC
• In China, the Almond Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, due to weakening consumer confidence and industrial demand.
• Almond demand outlook softened as China's CPI decreased by 0.3% in September 2025, indicating disinflation.
• Production costs for Almond faced pressure from a 2.3% decrease in China's PPI in September 2025, reflecting weak industrial demand.
• The Manufacturing Index in China was contracting in September 2025, impacting Almond ingredient demand due to reduced industrial activity.
• Despite 3.0% retail sales growth year-over-year in September 2025, domestic demand for Almond softened in Q3 2025.
• China's industrial production increased by 6.5% year-over-year in September 2025, offering some support for industrial Almond applications.
• Low consumer confidence (89.6) and 5.2% unemployment in September 2025 dampened discretionary spending on Almond products.
• Persistent overcapacity in China's chemical industry during Q3 2025 created a challenging market for raw materials.
Why did the price of Almond change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Weakening consumer confidence at 89.6 in September 2025 reduced discretionary spending on Almond products.
• China's PPI decreased by 2.3% in September 2025, indicating falling producer prices and weak industrial demand for Almond.
• The Manufacturing Index was contracting in September 2025, signaling reduced industrial activity affecting Almond ingredient purchases.
Europe
• In Germany, the Almond Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by contracting industrial activity.
• Almond production costs softened in September 2025, influenced by a 1.7% decrease in producer prices year-over-year.
• The Almond demand outlook remains subdued due to a contracting Manufacturing Index in Q3 2025.
• Industrial production declined 1.0% in September 2025, further dampening almond demand in manufacturing applications.
• Consumer spending on almond products faced pressure from a 2.4% CPI increase in September 2025.
• Retail sales saw a modest 0.2% increase in September 2025, supported by stable 6.3% unemployment.
• Almond price forecast suggests continued stability with potential for slight declines amid persistent industrial weakness.
• Elevated natural gas prices in Europe during Q3 2025 contributed to overall higher operational costs for processors.
Why did the price of Almond change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Contracting Manufacturing Index in Q3 2025 reduced industrial demand for almonds, exerting downward price pressure.
• A 1.7% decrease in producer prices year-over-year in September 2025 softened production costs for almond-containing goods.
• Rising consumer prices (CPI up 2.4% in September 2025) impacted discretionary spending on almond products.
