For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In United States, Aluminium Dross Price Index rose in Q3 2025, driven by strong scrap demand and tightened primary supply.
• Production costs increased in Q3 2025, driven by 3.0% CPI in September and 2.6% PPI in August.
• Demand outlook was mixed in Q3 2025, with slow 0.1% industrial production growth in September.
• Robust retail sales, up 5.42% in September 2025, indirectly supported Aluminium Dross demand in manufacturing.
• Domestic aluminium inventories dwindled in July 2025, indicating tighter secondary aluminium supply.
• US primary aluminium imports plummeted in July 2025 due to tariffs, boosting scrap demand.
• Energy costs were mixed; natural gas softened, but wholesale power strengthened in Q3 2025.
• A 4.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 suggested upward pressure on labor costs.
• Consumer confidence declined to 94.2 in September 2025, signaling weakening economic activity.
Why did the price of Aluminium Dross change in September 2025 in North America?
• Primary aluminium imports plummeted in July 2025 due to tariffs, tightening supply.
• Domestic aluminium inventories dwindled in July 2025, reducing availability for secondary production.
• Rising input costs, with CPI up 3.0% in September 2025, increased processing expenses.
APAC
• In China, the Aluminium Dross Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by declining producer prices.
• Producer Price Index declined 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025, reflecting weak industrial demand for aluminium products.
• Industrial production expanded 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, supporting increased primary and secondary aluminium output.
• Aluminium Dross demand outlook was supported by surging New Energy Vehicle production in Q3 2025.
• Production costs for Aluminium Dross trended upward due to increased energy costs across Q3 2025.
• China's Manufacturing Index contracted in September 2025, indicating reduced overall industrial activity.
• Primary aluminum production remained constrained by national capacity caps throughout Q3 2025, impacting dross supply.
• Consumer Price Index decreased 0.3% year-on-year in September 2025, signaling deflationary pressures on end-product demand.
• The surveyed urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2% in September 2025, supporting overall economic stability.
Why did the price of Aluminium Dross change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Producer Price Index declined 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025, reflecting weak industrial demand.
• The Manufacturing Index contracted in September 2025, indicating reduced overall industrial output.
• However, surging New Energy Vehicle production and constrained primary aluminum capacity provided some price support.
Europe
• In Germany, the Aluminium Dross Price Index remained stable quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by mixed market signals.
• Aluminium Dross production costs trended down in Q3 2025, driven by a -1.7% year-over-year PPI decline in September 2025.
• Demand for Aluminium Dross faced headwinds as the Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, indicating industrial slowdown.
• The Aluminium Dross Price Forecast suggests continued stability, as stable consumer confidence in Q3 2025 offsets industrial declines.
• European scrap aluminum availability declined in Q3 2025, tightening feedstock supply for Aluminium Dross processing.
• Industrial Production decreased by 1.0% year-over-year in September 2025, negatively impacting overall Aluminium Dross demand.
• Despite a 2.4% CPI increase in September 2025, lower natural gas prices in Q3 2025 mitigated Aluminium Dross processing costs.
• Strategic front-loading of European aluminum purchases in Q3 2025, to preempt future carbon costs, supported demand.
Why did the price of Aluminium Dross change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Lower producer prices, down 1.7% in September 2025, reduced Aluminium Dross processing costs.
• Contracting industrial production, down 1.0% in September 2025, dampened Aluminium Dross demand.
• Declining European scrap aluminum availability in Q3 2025 tightened feedstock supply.
