For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Aluminium Ingot Price Index rose by 7.35% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, tariff-driven tightening.
• The average Aluminium Ingot price for the quarter was approximately USD 4213.67/MT, reflecting tariff-inflated costs.
• Aluminium Ingot Spot Price strengthened amid record Midwest premiums and diverted Canadian shipments reducing availability.
• Aluminium Ingot Production Cost Trend showed elevated costs due to Section 232 duties and premiums.
• Aluminium Ingot Demand Outlook remains steady from automotive and construction sectors, supporting physical offtake despite pockets.
• Aluminium Ingot Price Forecast expects range-bound movement as tariffs, scrap availability and utilisation rates offset.
• Domestic inventories and scrap inflows pressured spreads while export diversions and premiums sustained tighter market.
• Operational restarts and mill utilisation constraints limited supply relief, maintaining upward bias in the Aluminium Ingot Price Index.
Why did the price of Aluminium Ingot change in September 2025 in North America?
• Tariff-induced import restrictions and Canadian diversion sharply reduced available supply to U.S. consumers.
• Elevated Midwest premiums and inventory dynamics increased landed costs and supported nearby physical premiums.
• Mixed downstream demand, higher scrap deliveries, and variable mill utilisation balanced price direction.
APAC
• In Japan, the Aluminium Ingot Price Index rose by 0.62% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting balanced supply and demand.
• The average Aluminium Ingot price for the quarter was approximately USD 3092.00/MT, reported in weekly data.
• Aluminium Ingot Spot Price strengthened mid-September due to LME withdrawals and tighter secondary scrap availability.
• Aluminium Ingot Price Forecast remains cautiously upward into early autumn as inventories and demand balance.
• Aluminium Ingot Production Cost Trend showed pressure from freight and alumina constraints raising landed costs.
• Aluminium Ingot Demand Outlook improved for automotive and AI capacitor foil, offsetting weakness in construction.
• Aluminium Ingot Price Index was muted as balanced domestic output and imports maintained neutral tone.
• Port inventories swung between draws and builds, while major smelters ran close to nameplate capacity.
Why did the price of Aluminium Ingot change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Supply contraction from scrap tightness and LME withdrawals reduced available spot metal in September markets.
• Domestic demand firmed for automotive and AI capacitors, supporting near-term pricing despite muted construction activity.
• Freight disruptions, rising alumina costs and yen weakness raised landed import costs, altering buyer behavior.
Europe
• In Germany, the Aluminium Ingot Price Index fell by 1.19% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting softer demand and inventory pressure.
• The average Aluminium Ingot price for the quarter was approximately USD 2883.00/MT, underpinned by mixed supply and demand dynamics.
• Aluminium Ingot Spot Price fluctuations reflected intermittent smelter maintenance, port delays and currency-driven landed-cost increases.
• Aluminium Ingot Price Forecast indicates modest range-bound movements as balanced inventories offset periodic downstream restocking.
• Aluminium Ingot Production Cost Trend remains elevated due to high energy and carbon charges compressing smelter margins.
• Aluminium Ingot Demand Outlook is cautious with automotive restocking intermittently supporting the Price Index against soft construction demand.
• Elevated social and LME inventories pressured spot liquidity, while export demand fluctuations influenced regional premiums and bid levels.
• Major German smelter operating rates varied; targeted curtailments and restarts transiently tightened physical availability, supporting premiums.
• Feedstock flows, prebaked anode exports and alumina arrivals altered cost structures, affecting regional landed cost competitiveness.
Why did the price of Aluminium Ingot change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Supply tightness from smelter maintenance, electricity costs and occasional port disruptions notably reduced market availability.
• Weak downstream demand, automotive shutdowns and just-in-time buying limited restocking and further pressured regional premiums.
• Elevated energy and carbon charges increased production costs, keeping smelter margins tight and influencing bids.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Aluminium Ingot Price Index in North America for Q2 2025 declined by about 18% compared to Q1. This drop reflected a combination of oversupply and waning demand across key sectors.
• Aluminium Ingot Production Cost Trend showed some relief as upstream raw material costs (especially alumina and energy) eased slightly mid quarter. However, sharp upward revisions in U.S. tariffs (doubling to 50%) drove import costs higher and squeezed margins by the end of the quarter.
• Aluminium Ingot Demand Outlook remained weak. Buyers adopted just in time procurement amid trade uncertainty, and upstream sectors like construction and automotive saw sluggish activity. Despite minor upticks in mid-quarter, demand failed to keep pace with the available supply. Overall industrial sentiment stayed bearish.
• Supply stayed steady or even expanded through the quarter, with pre tariff stockpiling and high global output adding to inventories. North American LME and domestic stocks remained elevated, reinforcing market oversupply.
• Aluminium Ingot Price Forecast for the remainder of 2025 is mixed: a short term continuation of weakness appears likely, but escalating demand from EV, energy storage, and stimulus led infrastructure could underpin a modest recovery late in the year if trade frictions ease.
Why did the price of aluminium ingot change in July 2025 in North America?
In July 2025, Aluminium Ingot Price Index increased modestly. The uptick was driven by enforcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs on imports in early June, pushing up the Midwest-duty-paid aluminium premium and prompting buyers to accelerate purchases ahead of full enforcement. Market uncertainty and reduced foreign supply amplified upward price momentum in North American spot markets. Moreover, broader optimism from domestic consumption boosting policies added further support.
APAC
• The Aluminium Ingot Price Index across Asia in Q2 2025 decreased by approximately 8.1% quarter on quarter, reflecting soft demand and stable supply.
• In Japan, cost pressures from raw materials, logistics and labour rose modestly, prompting major aluminium rolling companies (e.g. UACJ, MA Aluminum) to seek processing fee adjustments mid quarter, though negotiations faced resistance due to weak retail demand.
• Demand remained fragile, especially in the automotive sector where cautious, just in time procurement prevailed despite steady production. Broader manufacturing and construction contraction, along with sluggish export conditions linked to China’s uneven recovery, depressed overall offtake.
• By the start of the quarter, subdued sentiment was evident as Japan’s spot prices fell nearly 5% week on week amid a cautious procurement stance in auto and industrial buying.
• While near term oversupply could keep price pressure in check, a medium to long term recovery is plausible later in 2025 should automotive and AI related industrial demand strengthen.
• By the end of the quarter, the supply demand balance remained weak with persistent inventory build up and muted downstream uptake, reinforcing downward bias in domestic Price Index.
Why did the price of aluminium ingot change in July 2025 in Asia?
In early to mid July, Aluminium Ingot Price Index increased, driven by tightening supply conditions (port inventories declined to ~316,700 tonnes by end June, a 4.3% drop) and renewed strength in automotive and AI sector demand (June car sales jumped 21.3% to ~393,160 units; high purity foil demand surged for AI data centres)
Europe
• The Aluminium Ingot Price Index in Europe declined approximately 20 % quarter on quarter, reflecting continued oversupply and weak demand across the region compared to the prior quarter.
• Throughout the quarter, upstream costs such as energy and raw materials remained broadly stable or modestly down, but offered little support to prices, as energy expenses in Europe remained elevated and cost relief was insufficient to counteract surplus supply
• Demand weakened significantly in major consumption sectors—downstream industrial buyers, especially in automotive and construction, drew down existing inventories rather than making new purchases, contributing to dampened procurement activity despite slight improvement in residential construction order backlogs in Germany.
• With persistent high inventories and muted demand, the forecast suggests continued pressure on the Price Index in the short term; however, a potential recovery may emerge later in 2025 if demand from EV and infrastructure sectors strengthens or if supply-side constraints appear.
• At the start of the quarter German smelters operated near capacity, while additional output was poised to come online by end 2025. Global production increased year on year, exacerbating oversupply and pressuring the Price Index downward
• By the end of the quarter, social and LME warehouse inventories remained elevated with no major logistical disruptions, keeping downward pressure on the Aluminium Ingot Price Index despite stable supply chains.
Why did the price of Aluminium Ingot change in July 2025 in Europe?
Price Index in Europe increased in mid July following a rally in LME aluminium cash settlement prices, lifting the regional Aluminium Ingot Price Index accordingly
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
Asia Pacific :- US$ 2587 /MT (MoM :-8.1% ; YoY :-6.1%)
Europe :- US$ 3089 /MT (MoM :-15.7%; YoY :-10.2%)
North America :- US$ 4166 /MT (MoM :-15.7% ; YoY :-6.4%)
India :- INR 245590 /MT (MoM :-11.2% ; YoY :+0.5%)
North America
• The Aluminium ingot Price Index in North America rose consistently throughout Q1 2025, supported by tightening raw material supplies and high global output.
• Why did the price change in April 2025 in USA?: April 2025 saw an inclining price trend driven by solid automotive sector demand and lingering supply-side constraints from elevated alumina costs.
• Aluminium ingot Spot Price closed the quarter at USD 4505/MT CFR Alabama Port, marking a 2.5% QoQ increase compared to Q4 2024.
• Falling warehouse inventories in early Q1 and robust automotive offtake contributed positively to the Aluminium ingot Demand Outlook.
• Market participants were concerned about evolving tariff measures and import policies affecting aluminium ingot flows from Canada and Mexico.
• While construction demand was flat, aluminium ingot consumption stayed resilient, helping maintain price momentum.
• Rising alumina costs continued to strain producers, influencing the Aluminium ingot Production Cost Trend.
Europe
• The Aluminium ingot Price Index in Europe reflected mixed trends amid regulatory uncertainty and recovering demand.
• Why did the price change in April 2025 in Europe?: Aluminium Ingot experienced an inclining price trend, initially supported by tight supply and strong industrial demand, especially from the EV and solar sectors.
• Aluminium ingot Spot Price in Germany closed at USD 3574/MT FD-Bad Berleburg, a 0.7% QoQ increase over Q4 2024.
• The EU’s proposed ban on Russian aluminium and declining inventories added to supply-side concerns.
• Domestic production remained stable, and logistics conditions improved, supporting a positive Aluminium ingot Demand Outlook.
• The Aluminium ingot Production Cost Trend was influenced by fluctuating global bauxite flows and trade tensions.
• Mid-quarter price gains moderated slightly by quarter-end due to cooling sentiment and market caution.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
• The Aluminium ingot Price Index in APAC showed a modest increase through Q1 2025, shaped by steady manufacturing and raw material stability.
• Why did the price change in April 2025 in Asia?: April 2025 saw upward price movement, primarily due to consistent demand from Japan’s die-casting and automotive sectors.
• The Aluminium ingot Spot Price ended the quarter at USD 3225/MT Ex-Tokyo, reflecting a 5.5% QoQ increase over Q4 2024.
• Japanese aluminium ingot supply remained steady, with a slight uptick mid-quarter due to rising domestic consumption.
• The Aluminium ingot Demand Outlook was buoyed by export strength in vehicles and semiconductor equipment.
• Trade fears over U.S. tariffs and shifting Chinese export policies influenced market behaviour and contributed to uncertainty.
• Aluminium ingot Production Cost Trend remained stable, supported by unchanged alumina prices and efficient logistics across the region.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Aluminium Ingot prices in North America increased by 4% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a tight balance between supply and demand. Across the continent, market dynamics were shaped by robust demand, particularly in construction and automotive sectors, amid moderate supply. Strategic shifts towards recycling and sustainable production supported supply-side resilience, while geopolitical and trade factors added complexity to global supply chains.
In the USA, the Aluminium Ingot market witnessed a bullish trend, with prices rising steadily through the quarter. Early in the quarter, domestic recycling efforts and policy-driven import constraints bolstered supply stability, even as rising freight costs and trade concerns influenced market sentiment. Vehicle sales surged 9% month over month in December, offsetting earlier slowdowns in production. The construction sector also contributed to demand, with year-over-year spending up 3.0%, despite challenges like higher borrowing costs and logistical constraints. Global supply disruptions in the alumina markets added upward pressure, further supporting price growth.
Overall, the U.S. Aluminium Ingot market ended the quarter on a strong note, with cautious optimism for sustained demand in early 2025. By the end of the quarter, Aluminium Ingot (99.9%) DEL Alabama prices stood at USD 4,628/MT, driven by increased automotive sales and steady construction activity.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2024, aluminum ingot prices in Europe rose by 4.3% quarter-on-quarter, driven by supply constraints, rising operational costs, and global market pressures. The sharp decline in London Metal Exchange aluminum inventories and reduced Chinese export incentives significantly contributed to the price surge, creating a bullish market environment. Escalating energy prices and higher input costs further intensified upward price momentum across the continent. In Germany, aluminum ingot prices showed steady growth, with the quarter ending at USD 3608/MT FOB Hamburg. Supply dynamics remained stable due to consistent international bauxite shipments, despite disruptions like the Moselle River accident, which increased freight costs. German manufacturers adapted by optimizing energy usage and securing alternative logistics, mitigating broader supply chain challenges. Demand presented a mixed outlook. While the automotive sector saw a slight recovery, with increased car exports and rising new registrations, the electric vehicle segment and construction industry faced headwinds. Declining EV sales and reduced construction activity, impacted by economic difficulties and high energy costs, weighed on demand. Nonetheless, improved manufacturing output and global supply chain developments bolstered confidence toward the end of the quarter. Germany’s aluminum market, although pressured, displayed resilience and adaptability, setting the stage for potential stability in 2025.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Aluminium Ingot prices in the APAC region increased by 3% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting strong market fundamentals and sustained demand across key sectors. This upward trend was supported by robust downstream consumption and steady production levels, despite some supply chain challenges and rising raw material costs. In China, Aluminium Ingot prices showed fluctuations throughout the quarter, ending at USD 2730/MT Ex Shanghai. Early in the quarter, prices faced downward pressure due to oversupply and the impact of a strong US dollar. However, demand rebounded significantly mid-quarter, driven by the seasonal peak in consumption during the festive period, increased automotive sales, and active construction projects. Notable growth in passenger car production and the effectiveness of vehicle replacement policies further bolstered demand. On the supply side, improved hydropower availability in Yunnan and resumed operations in Sichuan and Guizhou supported stable production, although bauxite and alumina supply constraints added cost pressures. Toward the end of the quarter, there was a slight moderation in demand and improved inventories eased price growth. Despite these challenges, the Chinese Aluminium Ingot market remained resilient, underpinned by favorable government policies and strong performance in automotive and real estate sectors.
