For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American Ammonia market faced a negative sentiments during first quarter in 2024, marked by subdued prices. The prices plunged by a significant margin of 20.6% throughout the quarter.
Fluctuating Natural Gas prices and declining demand contributed to this trend. Despite consistent demand from international markets, domestic demand remained weak due to unfavourable weather conditions, particularly impacting crop planting. Several major producers, including the Yara/BASF JV plant in Texas and U.S. Nitrogen LLC in Tennessee, experienced shutdowns caused by freezing weather, albeit without significant price effects. Additional shutdowns occurred at OCI Beaumont LLC in Texas and LSB Industries Inc in Cherokee, Alabama. The market experienced further challenges due to logistical disruptions on the Mississippi River, hindering barge resupply until mid-March. This bottleneck led to delayed shipments and increased port inventories.
Prolonged adverse weather conditions across the country dampened producer enthusiasm, as concerns about crop threats persisted. Fluctuating demand from major importing countries like Brazil, influenced by the approaching planting season and exacerbated by El-Nino-induced weather conditions, added to the market's volatility. Overall, these factors contributed to the subdued performance and pricing dynamics witnessed in the North American Ammonia market throughout Q1 2024.
APAC
The pricing of Ammonia in the APAC region during Q1 2024 saw significant volatility, influenced by various market dynamics. Prices declined in the initial two months due to ample material availability and subdued seasonal demand. Favourable weather conditions and increased domestic production contributed to enhanced supplies, while sluggish demand from the fertilizer industry post-peak planting season further impacted prices. Moreover, international demand, especially from Asia, was constrained by Chinese government restrictions on fertilizer exports until 2024. By late February 2024, shortages of Ammonia emerged in the Chinese market, driven by equipment malfunctions and sales stoppages at production facilities, particularly in northern China. Operational challenges disrupted manufacturing processes and delayed ammonia delivery, exacerbating supply shortages. Additionally, environmental regulations in Shandong province imposed further constraints on production, reducing ammonia output. Despite supply challenges, domestic demand experienced a modest uptick as preparations for the upcoming wheat and barley planting season commenced. Henceforth a potential price surge, resulting in a marginal 0.8% increase in prices in March 2024.
Europe
The European Ammonia market faced a challenging first quarter in 2024, characterized by a substantial 17.3% decline in prices in Russia. This decline was primarily attributed to reduced demand from the downstream fertilizer sector, compounded by an oversupply of ammonia and muted overall demand. Additionally, market sentiments were dampened by trade uncertainties and unfavourable weather conditions, particularly in Russia. The weather across Europe varied significantly during the quarter, with cold spells in the northern regions, excessive rainfall in central areas, and dryness in the Mediterranean. These weather patterns influenced agricultural activities and fertilizer demand, further contributing to the subdued market conditions. Despite these challenges, the temporary maintenance shutdown of the Novomoskovskiy Azot (Eurochem Group) plant had minimal impact on prices. However, ongoing farmers' protests, fuelled by rising energy prices, played a significant role in reducing farmers' buying enthusiasm. These protests added further pressure on the already subdued demand in the fertilizer sector. In response to the inventory pressures faced by traders, various strategies were employed, including adjustments to fertilizer prices, including ammonia. These efforts aimed to alleviate the impact of declining demand and lower production rates on market dynamics. However, despite these measures, prices continued to decline throughout the quarter.
South America
The South American Ammonia market faced a substantial 16.8% price decline in Q1 2024. Initially, January witnessed subdued demand due to seasonal factors and Carnival festivities, which temporarily slowed agricultural activities. Despite some consumers stocking up for the upcoming planting season, the overall market was affected. As the quarter progressed, domestic interest in Ammonia rose, but persistent drought conditions dampened enthusiasm among buyers. However, Brazil began receiving cheaper Ammonia cargoes from importing countries since mid-February, taking advantage of eased freight charges. This influx of affordable imports partially offset the domestic supply-demand dynamics. Despite trade uncertainties and droughts affecting the Panama Canal, traders exhibited resilience by adapting to alternative transportation routes, predominantly utilizing roads and air channels. This adaptability ensured a consistent supply of Ammonia to the Brazilian market, maintaining supply chain continuity. The increased activity in March, highlighted by exports ranging between 130,000 to 170,000 tons via road, demonstrated traders' agility in responding to evolving market conditions. Leveraging road transport allowed for swift navigation of geopolitical challenges and ensured prompt Ammonia delivery to customers, contributing to supply chain efficiency. These actions collectively narrowed the disparity between demand and supply, supporting the observed price decline in the South American Ammonia market.
Middle East
Throughout Q1 of 2024, the Middle Eastern ammonia market witnessed a notable bearish trend, characterized by declining prices predominantly attributed to a decrease in natural gas prices, a pivotal raw material in ammonia production processes. This market sentiment persisted as supply surpassed demand, resulting in an excess of ammonia supply within the region. Further exacerbating the market conditions were ongoing rebel attacks in the Red Sea, which disrupted the exporting process, causing delays and leading to an accumulation of ammonia inventories at ports. Despite weak international demand, a notable development emerged with China expressing demand following an agreement for a cargo from Indonesia. Saudi Arabia, a key player in the Middle Eastern ammonia market, experienced a significant price decline. This decline was attributed to the country providing cheaper exports to the Indian market, consequently increasing ammonia supply and resulting in higher inventory levels. Noteworthy during this period was the resumption of production at one of Saudi Arabia's major ammonia-producing plants, Ma’aden, which operated efficiently, further narrowing the disparity between demand and supply. In Q1 of 2024, the latest recorded price for Ammonia Spot Ex Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia stood at USD 290/MT, reflecting the prevailing market dynamics and indicating the impact of various factors influencing ammonia prices within the Middle Eastern region.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American region witnessed a Bullish trend for Ammonia during Q4 2023. The market was primarily impacted by the following factors. Firstly, increase in the price of essential feedstock natural gas led to an increase in the production cost of Ammonia.
Secondly, the demand for Ammonia and its derivatives remained robust in the domestic market, particularly in anticipation of the forthcoming winter planting season, exerting upward pressure on prices. Lastly, the low availability of material within the regional market led to an increased price of Ammonia within the country. Further, as the Chinese government curtail its fertilizers exports international consumers particularly Indian players were active in the North American market. However, in December 2023 the prices declined by a significant margin in the wake of surplus availability of material within the North American market.
Prolonged drought conditions and persistent bottlenecks at the Panama Canal, a major trading route in USA has led to delayed exports and long ques. This has eventually led to a surge of inventories at the port. Further, during this period demand from South American region also remained restrained as the region is suffering from adverse drought conditions due to El-Nino effect. The interplay of these factors paved the way for narrowed disparity between demand and supply thus supporting the current price dip.
APAC
The Ammonia pricing for the APAC region in Q4 2023 remained volatile due to various factors affecting the market. The top three reasons for the volatility were the reduced fertilizer exports from China, lower availability of material in the market, and fluctuations in the feedstock prices. China experienced the maximum changes in the Ammonia prices during this quarter. At the onset of the fourth quarter the price of Ammonia within the Chinese market was increasing significantly amidst firm demand of the material from the domestic and international fertilizer market. Demand for Chinese Ammonia from major importing country India was the key factor behind driving up the Ammonia prices as the Indian consumers were actively procuring Ammonia for the Rabi crop planting season within the country. However, by the end of November 2023, Chinese government decided to curtail its fertilizer exports in an effort to reduce the domestic Ammonia prices. The government issued CIQ export licenses and adopted a stringent stance on exports, with reports indicating containers that had already been export-cleared being removed from vessels of fertilizers, including Ammonia. Henceforth, demand from international market remained muted. The interplay of these factors prompted towards narrowed gap between demand and supply thus supporting the current price dip. As a result, the prices of Chinese Ammonia felt by a significant margin in December 2023.
South America
The South America’s Ammonia pricing for Q4 2023 was impacted by various factors. Ammonia market unfolded bullish sentiments for the first two months of the quarter. However, as December approached Ammonia market in the Middle eastern region prevailed downward trajectory. In the initial phase of the quarter Brazil Ammonia market, the month unfolded with a decidedly bullish sentiment, driven predominantly by expensive imports from the USA market, and shortage of imported Ammonia within the domestic market. Major exporting nations particularly USA, experienced this escalation, prompting producers to adopt a cautious stance in expanding Ammonia production. Compounding the situation, a shortage of gas pipelines further constrained the availability of critical raw materials. Simultaneously, persistent bottlenecks at the Panama Canal added another layer of complexity, resulting in extended queues for ships. These disruptions not only impacted shipping schedules but also led to a subsequent rise in transportation costs, directly affecting the efficient flow of Ammonia shipments into the Brazil market. However, demand for Ammonia and other fertilizers remained restricted in the Brazil market despite the of Rice, Soyabean, Sorghum planting season as the country is suffering from prolonged drought conditions dur to El-Nino effect. Extremely hot weather conditions within the northern part of Brazil along with dry conditions during the first half of December 2023 worsened the situation of crops within the country. Simultaneously, temperature was cooler in the southern part of the country during the first half of the month, although tickled up later in the month. The split in wet weather in southern Brazil and drier weather farther north is being largely driven by El Niño, which is expected to persist into the first part of 2024. This has weakened the buying enthusiasm of fertilizer consumers in the wake of potential threat to the crops.
Europe
The European Ammonia market in the fourth quarter of 2023 was characterized by a bullish trend for the first two months and declined lately. Yara's temporary halt in Ammonia production contributed to the complexity of the supply dynamics, potentially causing a surge in spot demand and exacerbating the existing shortage in the European market. This shortage led to increased prices for Ammonia in the region. Further, demand for Ammonia remained firm from the international market during this period. After Chinese Government halted its fertilizer exports Asian consumers were active in the western market. However, as December approached demand from Asian market declined as the peak planting season has passed. Further, adverse weather conditions within the region along with heavy rainfall posed to be a potential threat for the crops. This has further dampened the buying enthusiasm of Ammonia consumers for Spring 2024. Additionally, trade uncertainties amidst rebel attacks in the Red Sea had caused the traders to opt for alternative trade route. In an effort to avoid strikes by Iran-backed Houthi militants based in Yemen, carriers have already diverted trade over the past several weeks away from the crucial Middle East trade route, which, along with the Suez Canal, connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean. This has created a multiple-front storm for global trade, leading to a surge in European port inventories. The interplay of these factors prompted towards narrowed gap between demand and supply.
MEA
The MEA region's Ammonia pricing for Q4 2023 was impacted by various factors. Ammonia market unfolded bullish sentiments for the first two months of the quarter. However, as December approached Ammonia market in the Middle eastern region prevailed downward trajectory. The price increase in the initial phase of the quarter was driven by shortage of supplies within the market. One of the major Ammonia producers reduced its production rate causing a shortage of supply. Further, during this period the international demand for Ammonia rose, especially after China continued to curtail its fertilizer exports, leading to an upward trend. Further, during November 2023 the Middle Eastern market faced challenges due to factory device failures, partial sales stoppages, and a constrained supply. However, as December approached demand from Asian market declined as the peak planting season has passed. Further, demand from European market also remained restricted during this period amidst adverse weather conditions within the region along with heavy rainfall posed to be a potential threat for the crops. Additionally, trade uncertainties amidst rebel attacks in the Red Sea had caused the traders to opt for alternative trade route. In an effort to avoid strikes by Iran-backed Houthi militants based in Yemen, carriers have already diverted trade over the past several weeks away from the crucial Middle East trade route, which, along with the Suez Canal, connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean. This has created a multiple-front storm for global trade, leading to a surge in port inventories. The interplay of these factors prompted towards narrowed gap between demand and supply.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
The Anhydrous Ammonia market maintained a positive outlook throughout the third Quarter of 2023. In July, the market remained relatively stable, with a slight increase of USD +3/MT. This stability was attributed to the moderate performance of the downstream fertilizer sector. However, excessive drought conditions in the country reduced enthusiasm for purchases within the downstream fertilizer sector. Low water levels in the Panama Canal resulted in decreased exports of Ammonia from the USA to other importing countries, which led to an ample supply of Ammonia within the US market. In August, there was a modest resurgence in demand from the fertilizer industry as domestic consumers actively stocked up for the forthcoming planting season in September and October. The Ammonia prices began to rise significantly in September and settled at USD 415/MT FOB New Orleans, driven by firm demand, increased production rates, and tight availability of Ammonia. Hurricane Idalia had affected production activities in the country, leading to Kinder Morgan shutting its Port Manatee, Port Sutton, and Tampaplex terminals that handle fertilizers, causing a shortage of supplies within the country. Further, several market participants noted a substantial increase in international demand for Ammonia during the last week of September 2023, primarily due to China's reduced fertilizer exports. Demand for Ammonia and its derivatives, especially urea, remained robust in the domestic market, particularly in anticipation of the forthcoming winter planting season, which exerted upward pressure on Anhydrous Ammonia prices. Furthermore, as per data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Producers Price Index of the country increased by 0.5% in September, indicating the consumption of goods.
APAC
Asian Ammonium market prevailed optimistic market trends for the third quarter ending in September 2023. This escalation in Ammonia price can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the increased price of essential feedstock, firm demand for Ammonia and its derivatives from international and domestic fertilizer markets, and supply chain constraints. The elevated cost of essential feedstock Thermal Coal prompted higher production rates, consequently leading to an uptick in Ammonia prices. Further, demand for Ammonia remained robust in the international market, particularly in India and Brazil. In China, there was a shortage of spot availability in the Ammonia market, as producers are focused on fulfilling supply contracts. Additionally, during this period, the supply of Ammonia in the Chinese market was lower than expected in some parts of the country as production activity of some plants, including the Mingshengda plant, declined. The confluence of these factors prompted a widened gap between demand and supply, supporting the current price hike. Further, heightened demand for Ammonia derivatives, including Urea, Ammonium Nitrate, and Diammonium Phosphate, exerted upward cost pressure on Ammonia prices. Furthermore, as per data released by the National Bureau of Labor and Statistics, the new order index was almost stable after increasing marginally from 50.2 in August 2023 to 50.5 in September 2023, along with a sharp increase in the Production Price Index of the country, thus indicating the consumption of goods. Henceforth, during September, the FOB price of Aqueous Ammonia was assessed at USD 514/MT at Qingdao port.
Europe
The ammonia market in the European region experienced an optimistic market trend throughout the third quarter, ending in September 2023. This escalation in Ammonia price can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the increased price of essential feedstock, firm demand for Ammonia and its derivatives from international and domestic fertilizer markets, and supply chain constraints. Certain disruptive events occurred in the European market during August 2023, which had a substantial impact on the fertilizer landscape. A fire in a fertilizer warehouse in Moscow and the subsequent damage to 60,000 tons of fertilizer at the Odesa port disrupted the supply chain for fertilizers, including Ammonia, within the European market; furthermore, during September, problems with Norwegian offshore gas facilities that had just finished maintenance. This, along with less gas going to the US Gulf Coast, increased gas prices. Consequently, Ammonia producers in Europe feel more pressure to buy gas from the USA instead of making it themselves. The weakened Euro, in comparison to the USD, has led to costly imports of essential feedstock Natural Gas. The elevated cost of essential raw materials prompted higher production rates, leading to an uptick in Ammonia prices.
South America
Anhydrous Ammonia prices prevail in mixed sentiments during the third Quarter of 2023. The CFR price of Ammonia experienced a significant decline from USD 431/MT in June 2023 to 405/MT in July 2023. During July, prices declined in the wake of weak performance from the downstream fertilizer industry. Inadequate weather conditions in the country substantially impact corn planting within the country. Demand for Anhydrous Ammonia from the regional market was low in the southern region of the country since the region experienced heavy rainfall in the southern region during the first half of the month. This rainfall could be seen as a setback for corn harvesting in the country. However, during the end of July, a modest alleviation in demand from the northern season was observed since the drier conditions of the north are favorable for corn harvesting. However, the prices saw a significant increase during August 2023 and continued to rise through September 2023 and settled at USD 445/MT. Firm demand from the Brazilian fertilizer market and supply chain disruptions stemming from exporting economies such as the USA and Russia have contributed to the current price trend. The ongoing drought situation and low water levels in the Panama Canal have led to delays in exports from the USA, resulting in a material shortage within the Brazilian market. Furthermore, in September, the imported Anhydrous Ammonia market in Brazil experienced a notable increase in prices, influenced by a combination of factors. Brazilian farmers were facing significant cost pressures this month from rising input costs, emphasized by a combination of firm demand, surging inland freights, and supply shortages. Additionally, Brazil's emphasis on soybean and corn cultivation this year has resulted in an increased need for fertilizers, including Ammonia.
MEA
The Ammonia market in Saudi Arabia exhibited positive market trends throughout the third quarter, ending in September 2023. The increase in Ammonia prices can be attributed to several factors, including the rising price of essential feedstock, strong demand for Ammonia and its derivatives from both international and domestic fertilizer markets, and supply chain disruptions. The elevated cost of essential feedstock, Natural Gas, prompted higher production rates, consequently leading to an increase in Ammonia prices. Demand perspective for Ammonia remained robust, particularly from international markets like India and Brazil. Furthermore, the increased demand for downstream derivatives, notably Urea and DAP, during this period also added cost pressure to Ammonia prices. However, in September, tight supply conditions in the Saudi Arabian market led to a further increase in Ammonia prices. Ma'aden, a major Ammonia producer in Saudi Arabia, temporarily shut down its No.1 plant due to technical issues. Currently, there is a shortage of spot availability in the Ammonia market, as producers are prioritizing the fulfillment of supply contracts for the months of October and November.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
The prices of Ammonia showed a downward trajectory throughout Q2. The prices declined by 17.9% in April 2023, 12.9% in May 2023, and 12.8% in June 2023. The key driving factor behind the declining trend of Ammonia in the USA was diminished demand from domestic and international markets. The Ammonia market was mostly oversupplied, coupled with low procurement orders from the end-user market, paving the way for narrowed demand-supply gap. Further, declining demand for Diammonium Phosphate, Ammonium Sulphate, and Mono Ammonium Phosphate fertilizers also supported the price trend. Additionally, imports to other countries like Mexico and Chile remained low during this quarter as the water level in the Mississippi River declined due to heat. As per data from the Federal Reserve of Economic Data, the Consumer Price Index rose from 302.91 in April 2023 to 303.29 in May 2023. However, fluctuations in prices of upstream Natural Gas and Crude Oil may affect the production rate in the country, leading to increased product prices in the coming months.
APAC
Prices of the Ammonia in the APAC region have showcased pessimistic market sentiments throughout the second quarter of 2023 due to declining feedstock Thermal Coal prices in China and low demand from the downstream nitrogenous fertilizer industry. For the three months ending in June 2023, Anhydrous Ammonia FOB Qingdao prices declined by 13.6%. It was observed that China reduced its exports at the start of June 2023 by 0.4%, creating oversupplies in the domestic market. Stockpiled inventories coupled with diminished demand paved the way for a narrow gap between demand and supply, consequently affecting the prices. Further, declining demand for downstream derivative Urea, Ammonium Sulphate, Nitric Acid, and Ammonium Nitrate supported the prevailing price trend. However, as per data from the National Bureau of Statistics (China), the country's Consumer Price Index was recorded at 100.1 in April 2023 and 100.2 in May 2023. Further, the industrial growth rate was recorded at 5.6 in April 2023 and 3.5 in May 2023.
Europe
Similarly to the global market trend, the prices of Ammonia showcased a downward trajectory in European countries in the second quarter of 2023. The declining price of feedstock Natural Gas and low demand from the international markets remained the key driving factors behind the declining price trend. Further, a blast in the pipeline, which was used to transport Ammonia from Russia to other countries via Ukraine, led to surplus availability of Ammonia in the market coupled with diminished demand paving the way for a narrow demand-supply gap and consequently leading to a decline in prices. The prices fell by 23.6% in Russia in the second quarter. In the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, heavy rainfall in May led to a delayed farming season in the area and low procurement orders from the agricultural sector, supporting the prevailing price trend. The prices fall in the Netherlands by 18.4% and by 18.3% in the USA from April to June. As indicated by Eurostat, the Industrial Production Index was 96.5 in April 2023.
South America
Considering the current prevailing market dynamics, it is observed that the prices of Ammonia showed a declining trend in the second quarter of 2023 in Brazil. The prices declined by a margin of 9.5% from April to June in Brazil. The decrease in Ammonia and feedstock material Natural Gas prices in the exporting country Saudi Arabia eased freight charges, and low procurement orders from the downstream fertilizer industry supported the current prevailing price trend. Further, diminished demand for downstream derivative Urea in the country also supported the trend. Additionally, it is observed that the purchase activity of fertilizer is significantly delayed in this quarter, with a decrease of 16% by the end of May 2023; as we approach the end of the second quarter, it is observed that only 44% of the total product has been sold and the demand-supply gap is narrowing. However, in the coming months, future market sentiments suggest a potential shift towards an incline in prices on the back of increased feedstock prices in exporting country Saudi Arabia and increased freight charges.
Middle East
Similar to the global market trend, Ammonia prices showcased a downward trajectory in Saudi Arabia in the second quarter of 2023. The prices declined by 29.7% from April to June this year on the back of weak demand from the Nitrogenous fertilizer industry and declining prices of feedstock Natural Gas during this quarter. Additionally, it was observed that due to cheap shipments from the Russian Federation via the black sea to importing countries like India and Brazil, market participants of Saudi Arabia were forced to keep their prices low from April to June. The depreciating demand dynamics of the material in the market and ample material availability have paved the way for a narrow gap between demand and supply. However, Saudi Arabia's Investment and an Omani firm have signed a memorandum agreement of understanding to establish a fertilizer plant in the Kingdom to boost its agricultural production. The depreciating demand dynamics of the material in the market and ample material availability have paved the way for a narrow gap between demand and supply.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The price of Ammonia continued to fall throughout Q1 2023, owing to lower local and overseas demand for Ammonia. Even though decreasing costs led to some purchases, the Ammonia market was mostly oversupplied, and thus the prices kept falling. As the Mississippi River system opened in February, all imports arrived in New Orleans without a hitch and have since been dispersed around the region. Although the demand for DAP and MAP fertilizer for spring plowing has helped to support the Ammonia market, in part, prices still hovered around a downward level. Anhydrous Ammonia prices decreased as the imbalance between supply and demand subsided, which further supported a move from exports to domestic sales. In March 2023, ammonia prices FOB New Orleans were estimated to be at USD 940/MT.
APAC
The domestic Aqueous Ammonia market remained poor in the first quarter of 2023. Prices dropped because of an excess of nitrogenous fertilizer and a lack of downstream demand. Lower feedstock coal and nitrogen costs have also been linked to the gradual rise in Ammonia prices in China. The price drop could also be attributed to a lack of spot trading and buying during Q1. Furthermore, the absence of feedstock demand in the APAC region is due to massive inventories stockpiled and low downstream Urea prices. Fertiliser suppliers also struggled to understand how the downstream Urea market was moving. At the conclusion of the first quarter in 2023, prices for Ammonia were projected to be USD 657/MT FOB-Qingdao.
Europe
Ammonia prices in Europe fell during Q1 2023 due to decreasing natural gas costs. The market for Ammonia and its derivatives suffers as a result. When news of the US banking crisis came this quarter, the European TTF fuel price quickly rose to $17/MMBtu before falling once more. For the three months ending in March, Anhydrous Ammonia CFR Hamburg prices were projected at USD 793/MT. The nominal price of Black Sea Ammonia is USD 615/MT CFR Hamburg. The market sentiment remained bleak for the global Ammonia industry, which anticipates additional drops due to improving natural gas prices in Europe and ongoing price reductions during Q2. The offtakes remained negligible in the downstream industries, which weighed on the market sentiments and kept them muted.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Ammonia prices in the US remained low during Q4 as the plummeted raw material prices have also played an important role in this decline in the price of Ammonia in the US market. The data shows a fall of around 15% in feedstock Natural gas prices during the month of November 2022, which later continued to December. This decline in feedstock prices opportune manufacturers to offer discounts to induce offtakes from the downstream niche buyers, affecting price trends in major importing nations like India and the USA. Furthermore, the settlement of the US benchmark at USD 1150/MT CFR reversed the hike witnessed for this month's loadings and came amid uncertainty over the scale of US agricultural demand for Ammonia for the current quarter.
APA
APAC region's outlook for Ammonia prices in Q4 2022 remained very bleak, with much material flowing to India in Q4 making supplies available at an ample amount. Some Suppliers are being engaged in discussions about prospective December supplies to Northeast Asia at discounted prices, and regular export quantities from China have also started to become a fixture of the market. The migration of spot materials from the Middle East and Southeast Asia to Europe and North Africa reflected the absence of industrial Ammonia demand in significant importing nations like South Korea and Taiwan. Given the decreased demand from industrial and agricultural customers in the northern hemisphere, Q4 traditionally has been one of the worst seasons for Ammonia prices. Bearish sentiment is anticipated to continue until Q1 2023.
Europe
European Ammonia prices in Q4 2022 had mixed sentiments about the pricing trajectory as Natural gas dependency in the Ammonia prices remained the deciding factor. In Addition, mixed sentiments about freight cost and some constraints on the availability of the container had consequently thrown the supply chain into chaos. Russia also started imposing limitations on fertilizer exports and prioritized delivering them to nations with cordial relations. Many participants remain reluctant to divulge prices or price targets, but the bearish market sentiment remained dominant, given the number of spot cargoes available to traders and end users. The downstream Fertilizer market performed in line with the demand, which remained fluctuating throughout Quarter 4.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
Ammonia prices fell in the U.S. domestic market during the Q3 of 2022 due to weak downstream demand following the end of the spring agricultural season, where direct application of Ammonia remained stable. However, the feedstock Nitrogen price experienced slight changes, aided by the upstream Natural gas fluctuation. Slow and sluggish inquiries have resulted in lower pricing sentiments. The quarterly price decrease suggests that fertilizer manufacturers are raising output in response to the financial incentive of higher pricing. The leading causes for the lower pricing are rising stockpiles due to pandemic-related production and supply chain concerns and trade flow realignments resulting from the Black Sea conflict . Anhydrous Ammonia CFR Tampa (USA) prices were assessed at USD 1323/M.T.
APAC
Ammonia prices in the APAC area have displayed mixed sentiments due to small changes in market dynamics. The impact on Chinese coal market, which is used as a feedstock for the country's Ammonia production, has impacted the manufacturing process. The weak U.S. dollar exchange rates and the slowdown in the world economy in July further contributed to the sharp decrease in Ammonia prices in July. Physical constraints in the supply chain from mine to production facilities and logistical issues have contributed to the continual rise. Truck movements have been impeded in the Chinese domestic market. However, feelings grew as China was engulfed in a terrible heatwave that could significantly impact its economy. Aqueous Ammonia FOB-Qingdao was assessed at USD 840/M.T. during the last month of the quarter.
Europe
In the third quarter, ammonia prices rose rapidly due to global scarcity and increasing demand on the worldwide market. This price increase was caused by increased global demand for Ammonia following the suspension of imports. Moreover, diminishing Russian imports have contributed to the extreme scarcity caused by reducing supply from 50% to 35%. Furthermore, soaring natural gas prices have hampered the production processes in the European market. As Europe suffers from Russia's depleting supply, SKW closed its factory in Germany, and Norway's Yara, one of the world's largest fertilizer makers, curtailed Ammonia production in Europe. Germany's BASF has already ceased manufacturing Ammonia. Anhydrous Ammonia CFR Hamburg was assessed at USD 1602/M.T.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
Due to the difficulty of moving sizable quantities of liquefied natural gas from Europe to North America during the war, prices for anhydrous and aqueous ammonia have increased in the domestic US market. Delays in the distribution of nitrogen fertilizer throughout the spring season and increased demand from downstream sectors both affected the North American area in Q2. However, as nitrogenous fertilizers declined by 30% over the previous week, ammonia prices in the USA fell toward the middle of the quarter. Because of the weak demand from downstream industries in the United States. Additionally, the buyers are reluctant to pay the record-breaking high prices seen since May.
APAC
Throughout the first quarter, the domestic Aqueous and Anhydrous Ammonia market remained robust and continuously increased. Supplies tightened last month and stayed unchanged from March, according to the economy's supply side. The overall ammonia output and producers' availability have drastically dropped in several places. In addition, fertilizer companies were forced to reduce production due to rising coal costs in China, the country's primary feedstock source for ammonia production, resulting in price rises. Costs for downstream fertilizers have increased as a result of rising ammonia prices. However, as the quarter came to a close, the ammonia price fell along with the price of nitrogen feedstock. Sources claim that as raw materials prices have declined globally, all nitrogen fertilizers have plummeted in domestic prices. Furthermore, a lack of trade and spot buying activity can be blamed for the price decline. Fertilizer suppliers are also confused about the trajectory of the urea market in the downstream sector.
Europe
Due to falling production costs, ammonia prices in the German market increased during Q2 due to the surging natural gas prices. The invasion of Ukraine and the accompanying sanctions against Russia have caused energy prices to soar, which has put pressure on the German chemical industry. Due to a dearth of Chinese imports, the European market has remained small. Additionally, a persistent natural gas shortage is putting pressure on ammonia producers. As the nation confronts the third day of limited natural gas supplies from Russia, the biggest energy supplier in Europe, officials in Germany encouraged people and businesses to start conserving energy. Another factor driving manufacturers to raise their offers is rising inflation. Anhydrous ammonia CFR Hamburg prices were estimated at USD 1645/MT for the three months ending in June.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The price of anhydrous ammonia has risen considerably in the first quarter of 2022. The increase in price is primarily due to the substantial increase in gas price which is used as a key raw material for the majority of nitrogen fertilizers including Ammonia. As a result, Russia imposed temporary export quotas and restrictions on specific types of fertilisers in recent months, further reducing global supply and driving fertiliser prices upward. Furthermore, a recent increase in fertilizer costs has been aided by an increase in Ammonia prices and certain potash supply difficulties in Canada. Finally, ongoing supply chain concerns, weather-related interruptions, and rising shipping container costs are all likely to contribute to fertilizer shortages and price increases. Anhydrous Ammonia CFR Tampa prices remained at USD1177/MT.
Asia Pacific
Due to a sharp increase in raw material Nitrogen and Hydrogen costs, as well as significant demand from the Indian market, the price of Ammonia skyrocketed in Q1 of 2022. The supply remained insufficient to cover the country's total demands, despite continued strong demand from the fertilizer industries. The fundamental cause of the progressive fall in daily output in Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang has been a rise in Ammonia prices in China. Additionally, due to a global scarcity of natural gas resources, coal and natural gas prices have continued to grow. Because of the Winter Olympics, certain coal-based Ammonia firms in North China have reduced production. Fertilizer sales in China are also being hampered by movement restrictions imposed to combat recent COVID-19 outbreaks. Aqueous Ammonia prices during March were last assessed at USD 812/MT FOB Qingdao.
Europe
Due to high natural gas costs, sky-high inflation, and severe production cuts, Ammonia prices in Europe skyrocketed throughout Q1 2022, showing similar trends as compared to the last quarter. The war between Russia and Ukraine adds to the pressure on manufacturers, causing them to cut back on production. In the manufacturing of Ammonia, Natural Gas is the most common feedstock. In reaction to rising Natural Gas prices, global fertilizer firm Yara halted output at two European sites in March. Local farmers, on the other hand, are concerned about having enough supplies for the spring season. Furthermore, downstream demand from Urea and ammonium nitrate industries remained strong in the last quarter. Anhydrous Ammonia CFR Hamburg prices remained at USD 1550/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
The price of ammonia increased significantly in the fourth quarter of 2021 in the North American region, owing to a significant increase in the value of the commodity as a result of a global nitrogen fertilizer shortage. The assessed value of ammonia FOB New Orleans (USA) pricing reached USD 1177/MT in December, marking an all-time high. As a result of the damaged availability of hydrogen and nitrogen in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, ammonia supplies in the quarter saw sluggish production levels.
Asia
Overall, Ammonia market sentiments in Asia were positive, as the Indian market saw robust Ammonia demand to meet their needs during the rabi crop season, while the prognosis for Chinese Ammonia in the domestic spot market remained bullish, owing to higher natural gas and coal prices. In addition, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the impact of Chinese authorities' dual-control energy consumption requirements to reduce carbon emissions and limit power use prevailed. As a result, some Ammonia plants saw output cutbacks, prompting the Chinese government to fully ban downstream Urea exports to the international market.
Europe
In Europe, the pricing trend of Ammonia experienced an upward trajectory backed by the spike in raw material due to skyrocketing prices of natural gas. German market experienced bullish market sentiment for Ammonia since the beginning of the year, as the demand from nitrogen-based fertilizers sector remained firm and effectively high enough to support the overall price uptrend of Ammonia. Prices of ammonia in Germany were last assessed at USD 934/MT CFR Hamburg during December 2021. Inflated freight charges and shortages of shipping containers further sent ripples to the values of Ammonia in this quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
In Q3 of 2021, the prices of Ammonia rose effectively in the North American region as the demand for Ammonia remained strong from the major downstream fertilizer industry. In the US, the inventories for the product were at lower levels in comparison to conventional numbers due to extreme weather conditions that disrupted the production in Q1 2021. In the 1st week of August, the price of Ammonia was settled at USD 605/MT FOB New Orleans. Supply fundamentals have been strong throughout the quarter as no major planned or unplanned plant outages took place since Mid-May.
Asia
The prices of Ammonia levelled up in the third quarter of 2021, as previous market sentiments remained persistent in the domestic market. The Asian market observed a major drop in offered quotations of Ammonia during the last week of August. The Ammonia prices bounced back in the first two weeks, and later stabilized in the third week of September. This market movement is highly attributed to the dual control of Chinese authorities on energy consumption, which restricted the operational loads at various Ammonia manufacturing facilities backed by acute shortage of Natural Gas which further led to the price uptrend in the region.
As a ripple effect, the pricing of Ammonia rebounded towards the end of Q3, and FOB Qingdao prices settled at USD 702/MT during the week ending 24th September. In India, Ammonia prices escalated from USD 664/MT to USD 798/MT in Q3 2021. Critically low availability of Ammonia and furious offtakes due to low inventories levels of several fertilizers in front of forthcoming seasonal demand led to the increment in Ammonia prices in the country. In addition, soaring freight cost and halted import activities due to lack of containers kept on exacerbating the overall price trend.
Europe
The prices of Ammonia in the European region continued to witness steep rise in Q3 2021. A sharp rise of around USD 300/ MT has taken place since January 2021 due to continuous cut in domestic production of Ammonia in Europe. In Germany, the CFR Hamburg prices stood at USD 710/MT in September. A substantial hike in the price of European Natural Gas forced major manufacturers such as Yara, OCI, and Borealis of Ammonia in Europe to cut up to 50% of their production capacity in Q3.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
Prices of Ammonia remained bullish in North America throughout the quarter, supported by recovering demand from domestic fertilizers sector. Post the recovery from the repercussions of the winter storm in the month of February, traders began to offer Ammonia at a higher cost around USD 330/MT in March. Fertilisers demand in USA also remained muted during Q1 2021, due to the seasonal calamities. However, demand gradually improved moving to Q2 2021 with improvement in environmental conditions. Besides, transportation hurdles also exacerbated the prices of Ammonia in USA, and eventually prices rose effectively and reached USD 450/MT in June.
Asia
Overall market sentiments of Ammonia in the Asia remained uplifted throughout the quarter, as the demand fundamentals from downstream fertilizers and pharmaceuticals remained strong. In the Chinese market, Ammonia reached 3 years high value, due to firm demand and tight supply activities across the country. Manufacturers revealed that this price rise was sudden as the prices rose without any seasonal demand, therefore they urged government to intervene into off seasonal price hike, where the price reached USD 648/MT during the month of June. Meanwhile, in the Indian market, domestic fertiliser segment experienced firm demand for Ammonia in the initial days of the quarter, which later reduced in May under pandemic mayhem in the country. In June, buyers stressed over subdued availability of Ammonia than the actual domestic and international demand, as under the pandemic condition in the country production level remained low for a month. Therefore, prices of Ammonia rose effectively and settled at USD 361.8/MT during June in India.
Europe
European market experienced sturdy market sentiment for Ammonia this quarter, as the demand from nitrogen-based fertilisers sector remained high enough to support the overall price trend of Ammonia. Production by Russian manufacturers remained sky-high throughout the quarter, backed by high regional and domestic demand from fertilizer sector. In addition, blockage of Suez Canal also impacted the regional prices of Ammonia and its downstream derivatives during early April, as the supply between Asia and Europe was disrupted for a week.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
Ammonia production in North America remained disrupted throughout the quarter due to severe climate calamity. Supply for Ammonia across the region remained tight while the demand remained firm from downstream agrochemicals industries. During this period, some major Ammonia plants like Nutrien No 4 plant with an annual capacity of 760,000 MT, Tringen 2 with capacity of 500,000 MTand Yara BASF plant with a capacity 750,000 MT at freeport Texas remained idled. The shortage of Ammonia across the region made the prices to rise, FOB prices of Ammonia at Texas improved from USD 195 per MT (January 2021) to USD 205 per MT (March 2021).
Asia
Demand for Ammonia in the domestic Asian market remained stable to firm throughout the quarter. Though the supply remained tight, as trading activities witnessed difficulties due to congestion on prime trading routes amidst the increased freight & shipping cost. Meanwhile Lunar year in China, reduced the inventories level of Chinese manufacturers that created an additional burden on prices. The aqueous Ammonia prices in Indian market rose by 7.07% within the quarter and settled at USD 313.28 per MT in March.
Europe
Europe had a robust demand for Ammonia from domestic agrochemicals manufacturers, while witnessing unstable supply. High demand amidst tight supply forced traders to opt for premium prices of Ammonia. Later during March Suez Canal crisis also impacted the trading activities across Asia and Europe, which also affected the prices of Ammonia in the European region. Traders anticipated that the supply activity would normalize soon after the major plants of the region resume their activity.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
North America
The third quarter remained quite challenging for the US Ammonia producers who reported stable sales throughout Q3 as hurricanes and tropical storms forced turnarounds at several chemicals and fertilizers plants. A 500,000 tpy export-oriented Trinidad Nitrogen Company Limited (Tringen) plant at Point Lisas was turned offline in late September among three other Trinidad producers who temporarily shut production. Nutrien was the first one to idle some of its production looking at the sudden crash in regional prices. While prices across Southeast Asia, Middle East and Russia showed marked improvement during the quarter, Ammonia stocks across Americas remained heavily discounted. Spot Ammonia prices were assessed in the range of USD 170-180 per tonne FOB US Gulf.
Asia
Supply of Ammonia in the Asia Pacific eased in the July-Sep quarter after several Southeast Asian producers resumed normal operations with ease in COVID-led lockdown restrictions. Prices started regaining the lost momentum as improvement in demand fundamentals entering the second half of the year helped in partially offsetting the QoQ decline. Disruptions to the logistics chain and labor shortages which continued to harbor the Indian DAP and NPK fertilizer production in the first half of the year, meant lowered Ammonia feedstock requirements. Spot Ammonia was traded around USD 280.50 per tonne on CFR India basis. Ammonia demand from the northeast Asian chemicals producers showed mixed results, with some spot deals heard into China, Taiwan and South Korea regarding Q3 deliveries.
Europe
The European Ammonia industry was seen grappling with limited sales as industrial and agricultural operations were largely muted due to surging coronavirus infections. Exports were dented due to scheduled turnarounds and unplanned outages which led to fall in Ammonia exports from the Black Sea and Baltic. During the quarter, some Russian Ammonia vessels were booked for South Korea, as a more favorable option than shipping a cheaper cargo from Trinidad. Russia’s total Ammonia production registered record high on YoY basis in July and was priced around USD 180-190 per tonne on FOB basis.
