For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Ammonia prices in the US remained low during Q4 as the plummeted raw material prices have also played an important role in this decline in the price of Ammonia in the US market. The data shows a fall of around 15% in feedstock Natural gas prices during the month of November 2022, which later continued to December. This decline in feedstock prices opportune manufacturers to offer discounts to induce offtakes from the downstream niche buyers, affecting price trends in major importing nations like India and the USA. Furthermore, the settlement of the US benchmark at USD 1150/MT CFR reversed the hike witnessed for this month's loadings and came amid uncertainty over the scale of US agricultural demand for Ammonia for the current quarter.
APAC
APAC region's outlook for Ammonia prices in Q4 2022 remained very bleak, with much material flowing to India in Q4 making supplies available at an ample amount. Some Suppliers are being engaged in discussions about prospective December supplies to Northeast Asia at discounted prices, and regular export quantities from China have also started to become a fixture of the market. The migration of spot materials from the Middle East and Southeast Asia to Europe and North Africa reflected the absence of industrial Ammonia demand in significant importing nations like South Korea and Taiwan. Given the decreased demand from industrial and agricultural customers in the northern hemisphere, Q4 traditionally has been one of the worst seasons for Ammonia prices. Bearish sentiment is anticipated to continue until Q1 2023.
Europe
European Ammonia prices in Q4 2022 had mixed sentiments about the pricing trajectory as Natural gas dependency in the Ammonia prices remained the deciding factor. In Addition, mixed sentiments about freight cost and some constraints on the availability of the container had consequently thrown the supply chain into chaos. Russia also started imposing limitations on fertilizer exports and prioritized delivering them to nations with cordial relations. Many participants remain reluctant to divulge prices or price targets, but the bearish market sentiment remained dominant, given the number of spot cargoes available to traders and end users. The downstream Fertilizer market performed in line with the demand, which remained fluctuating throughout Quarter 4.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
Ammonia prices fell in the U.S. domestic market during the Q3 of 2022 due to weak downstream demand following the end of the spring agricultural season, where direct application of Ammonia remained stable. However, the feedstock Nitrogen price experienced slight changes, aided by the upstream Natural gas fluctuation. Slow and sluggish inquiries have resulted in lower pricing sentiments. The quarterly price decrease suggests that fertilizer manufacturers are raising output in response to the financial incentive of higher pricing. The leading causes for the lower pricing are rising stockpiles due to pandemic-related production and supply chain concerns and trade flow realignments resulting from the Black Sea conflict . Anhydrous Ammonia CFR Tampa (USA) prices were assessed at USD 1323/M.T.
APAC
Ammonia prices in the APAC area have displayed mixed sentiments due to small changes in market dynamics. The impact on Chinese coal market, which is used as a feedstock for the country's Ammonia production, has impacted the manufacturing process. The weak U.S. dollar exchange rates and the slowdown in the world economy in July further contributed to the sharp decrease in Ammonia prices in July. Physical constraints in the supply chain from mine to production facilities and logistical issues have contributed to the continual rise. Truck movements have been impeded in the Chinese domestic market. However, feelings grew as China was engulfed in a terrible heatwave that could significantly impact its economy. Aqueous Ammonia FOB-Qingdao was assessed at USD 840/M.T. during the last month of the quarter.
Europe
In the third quarter, ammonia prices rose rapidly due to global scarcity and increasing demand on the worldwide market. This price increase was caused by increased global demand for Ammonia following the suspension of imports. Moreover, diminishing Russian imports have contributed to the extreme scarcity caused by reducing supply from 50% to 35%. Furthermore, soaring natural gas prices have hampered the production processes in the European market. As Europe suffers from Russia's depleting supply, SKW closed its factory in Germany, and Norway's Yara, one of the world's largest fertilizer makers, curtailed Ammonia production in Europe. Germany's BASF has already ceased manufacturing Ammonia. Anhydrous Ammonia CFR Hamburg was assessed at USD 1602/M.T.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
Due to the difficulty of moving sizable quantities of liquefied natural gas from Europe to North America during the war, prices for anhydrous and aqueous ammonia have increased in the domestic US market. Delays in the distribution of nitrogen fertilizer throughout the spring season and increased demand from downstream sectors both affected the North American area in Q2. However, as nitrogenous fertilizers declined by 30% over the previous week, ammonia prices in the USA fell toward the middle of the quarter. Because of the weak demand from downstream industries in the United States. Additionally, the buyers are reluctant to pay the record-breaking high prices seen since May.
APAC
Throughout the first quarter, the domestic Aqueous and Anhydrous Ammonia market remained robust and continuously increased. Supplies tightened last month and stayed unchanged from March, according to the economy's supply side. The overall ammonia output and producers' availability have drastically dropped in several places. In addition, fertilizer companies were forced to reduce production due to rising coal costs in China, the country's primary feedstock source for ammonia production, resulting in price rises. Costs for downstream fertilizers have increased as a result of rising ammonia prices. However, as the quarter came to a close, the ammonia price fell along with the price of nitrogen feedstock. Sources claim that as raw materials prices have declined globally, all nitrogen fertilizers have plummeted in domestic prices. Furthermore, a lack of trade and spot buying activity can be blamed for the price decline. Fertilizer suppliers are also confused about the trajectory of the urea market in the downstream sector.
Europe
Due to falling production costs, ammonia prices in the German market increased during Q2 due to the surging natural gas prices. The invasion of Ukraine and the accompanying sanctions against Russia have caused energy prices to soar, which has put pressure on the German chemical industry. Due to a dearth of Chinese imports, the European market has remained small. Additionally, a persistent natural gas shortage is putting pressure on ammonia producers. As the nation confronts the third day of limited natural gas supplies from Russia, the biggest energy supplier in Europe, officials in Germany encouraged people and businesses to start conserving energy. Another factor driving manufacturers to raise their offers is rising inflation. Anhydrous ammonia CFR Hamburg prices were estimated at USD 1645/MT for the three months ending in June.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The price of anhydrous ammonia has risen considerably in the first quarter of 2022. The increase in price is primarily due to the substantial increase in gas price which is used as a key raw material for the majority of nitrogen fertilizers including Ammonia. As a result, Russia imposed temporary export quotas and restrictions on specific types of fertilisers in recent months, further reducing global supply and driving fertiliser prices upward. Furthermore, a recent increase in fertilizer costs has been aided by an increase in Ammonia prices and certain potash supply difficulties in Canada. Finally, ongoing supply chain concerns, weather-related interruptions, and rising shipping container costs are all likely to contribute to fertilizer shortages and price increases. Anhydrous Ammonia CFR Tampa prices remained at USD1177/MT.
Asia Pacific
Due to a sharp increase in raw material Nitrogen and Hydrogen costs, as well as significant demand from the Indian market, the price of Ammonia skyrocketed in Q1 of 2022. The supply remained insufficient to cover the country's total demands, despite continued strong demand from the fertilizer industries. The fundamental cause of the progressive fall in daily output in Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang has been a rise in Ammonia prices in China. Additionally, due to a global scarcity of natural gas resources, coal and natural gas prices have continued to grow. Because of the Winter Olympics, certain coal-based Ammonia firms in North China have reduced production. Fertilizer sales in China are also being hampered by movement restrictions imposed to combat recent COVID-19 outbreaks. Aqueous Ammonia prices during March were last assessed at USD 812/MT FOB Qingdao.
Europe
Due to high natural gas costs, sky-high inflation, and severe production cuts, Ammonia prices in Europe skyrocketed throughout Q1 2022, showing similar trends as compared to the last quarter. The war between Russia and Ukraine adds to the pressure on manufacturers, causing them to cut back on production. In the manufacturing of Ammonia, Natural Gas is the most common feedstock. In reaction to rising Natural Gas prices, global fertilizer firm Yara halted output at two European sites in March. Local farmers, on the other hand, are concerned about having enough supplies for the spring season. Furthermore, downstream demand from Urea and ammonium nitrate industries remained strong in the last quarter. Anhydrous Ammonia CFR Hamburg prices remained at USD 1550/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
The price of ammonia increased significantly in the fourth quarter of 2021 in the North American region, owing to a significant increase in the value of the commodity as a result of a global nitrogen fertilizer shortage. The assessed value of ammonia FOB New Orleans (USA) pricing reached USD 1177/MT in December, marking an all-time high. As a result of the damaged availability of hydrogen and nitrogen in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, ammonia supplies in the quarter saw sluggish production levels.
Asia
Overall, Ammonia market sentiments in Asia were positive, as the Indian market saw robust Ammonia demand to meet their needs during the rabi crop season, while the prognosis for Chinese Ammonia in the domestic spot market remained bullish, owing to higher natural gas and coal prices. In addition, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the impact of Chinese authorities' dual-control energy consumption requirements to reduce carbon emissions and limit power use prevailed. As a result, some Ammonia plants saw output cutbacks, prompting the Chinese government to fully ban downstream Urea exports to the international market.
Europe
In Europe, the pricing trend of Ammonia experienced an upward trajectory backed by the spike in raw material due to skyrocketing prices of natural gas. German market experienced bullish market sentiment for Ammonia since the beginning of the year, as the demand from nitrogen-based fertilizers sector remained firm and effectively high enough to support the overall price uptrend of Ammonia. Prices of ammonia in Germany were last assessed at USD 934/MT CFR Hamburg during December 2021. Inflated freight charges and shortages of shipping containers further sent ripples to the values of Ammonia in this quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
In Q3 of 2021, the prices of Ammonia rose effectively in the North American region as the demand for Ammonia remained strong from the major downstream fertilizer industry. In the US, the inventories for the product were at lower levels in comparison to conventional numbers due to extreme weather conditions that disrupted the production in Q1 2021. In the 1st week of August, the price of Ammonia was settled at USD 605/MT FOB New Orleans. Supply fundamentals have been strong throughout the quarter as no major planned or unplanned plant outages took place since Mid-May.
Asia
The prices of Ammonia levelled up in the third quarter of 2021, as previous market sentiments remained persistent in the domestic market. The Asian market observed a major drop in offered quotations of Ammonia during the last week of August. The Ammonia prices bounced back in the first two weeks, and later stabilized in the third week of September. This market movement is highly attributed to the dual control of Chinese authorities on energy consumption, which restricted the operational loads at various Ammonia manufacturing facilities backed by acute shortage of Natural Gas which further led to the price uptrend in the region.
As a ripple effect, the pricing of Ammonia rebounded towards the end of Q3, and FOB Qingdao prices settled at USD 702/MT during the week ending 24th September. In India, Ammonia prices escalated from USD 664/MT to USD 798/MT in Q3 2021. Critically low availability of Ammonia and furious offtakes due to low inventories levels of several fertilizers in front of forthcoming seasonal demand led to the increment in Ammonia prices in the country. In addition, soaring freight cost and halted import activities due to lack of containers kept on exacerbating the overall price trend.
Europe
The prices of Ammonia in the European region continued to witness steep rise in Q3 2021. A sharp rise of around USD 300/ MT has taken place since January 2021 due to continuous cut in domestic production of Ammonia in Europe. In Germany, the CFR Hamburg prices stood at USD 710/MT in September. A substantial hike in the price of European Natural Gas forced major manufacturers such as Yara, OCI, and Borealis of Ammonia in Europe to cut up to 50% of their production capacity in Q3.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
Prices of Ammonia remained bullish in North America throughout the quarter, supported by recovering demand from domestic fertilizers sector. Post the recovery from the repercussions of the winter storm in the month of February, traders began to offer Ammonia at a higher cost around USD 330/MT in March. Fertilisers demand in USA also remained muted during Q1 2021, due to the seasonal calamities. However, demand gradually improved moving to Q2 2021 with improvement in environmental conditions. Besides, transportation hurdles also exacerbated the prices of Ammonia in USA, and eventually prices rose effectively and reached USD 450/MT in June.
Asia
Overall market sentiments of Ammonia in the Asia remained uplifted throughout the quarter, as the demand fundamentals from downstream fertilizers and pharmaceuticals remained strong. In the Chinese market, Ammonia reached 3 years high value, due to firm demand and tight supply activities across the country. Manufacturers revealed that this price rise was sudden as the prices rose without any seasonal demand, therefore they urged government to intervene into off seasonal price hike, where the price reached USD 648/MT during the month of June. Meanwhile, in the Indian market, domestic fertiliser segment experienced firm demand for Ammonia in the initial days of the quarter, which later reduced in May under pandemic mayhem in the country. In June, buyers stressed over subdued availability of Ammonia than the actual domestic and international demand, as under the pandemic condition in the country production level remained low for a month. Therefore, prices of Ammonia rose effectively and settled at USD 361.8/MT during June in India.
Europe
European market experienced sturdy market sentiment for Ammonia this quarter, as the demand from nitrogen-based fertilisers sector remained high enough to support the overall price trend of Ammonia. Production by Russian manufacturers remained sky-high throughout the quarter, backed by high regional and domestic demand from fertilizer sector. In addition, blockage of Suez Canal also impacted the regional prices of Ammonia and its downstream derivatives during early April, as the supply between Asia and Europe was disrupted for a week.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
Ammonia production in North America remained disrupted throughout the quarter due to severe climate calamity. Supply for Ammonia across the region remained tight while the demand remained firm from downstream agrochemicals industries. During this period, some major Ammonia plants like Nutrien No 4 plant with an annual capacity of 760,000 MT, Tringen 2 with capacity of 500,000 MTand Yara BASF plant with a capacity 750,000 MT at freeport Texas remained idled. The shortage of Ammonia across the region made the prices to rise, FOB prices of Ammonia at Texas improved from USD 195 per MT (January 2021) to USD 205 per MT (March 2021).
Asia
Demand for Ammonia in the domestic Asian market remained stable to firm throughout the quarter. Though the supply remained tight, as trading activities witnessed difficulties due to congestion on prime trading routes amidst the increased freight & shipping cost. Meanwhile Lunar year in China, reduced the inventories level of Chinese manufacturers that created an additional burden on prices. The aqueous Ammonia prices in Indian market rose by 7.07% within the quarter and settled at USD 313.28 per MT in March.
Europe
Europe had a robust demand for Ammonia from domestic agrochemicals manufacturers, while witnessing unstable supply. High demand amidst tight supply forced traders to opt for premium prices of Ammonia. Later during March Suez Canal crisis also impacted the trading activities across Asia and Europe, which also affected the prices of Ammonia in the European region. Traders anticipated that the supply activity would normalize soon after the major plants of the region resume their activity.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
North America
The third quarter remained quite challenging for the US Ammonia producers who reported stable sales throughout Q3 as hurricanes and tropical storms forced turnarounds at several chemicals and fertilizers plants. A 500,000 tpy export-oriented Trinidad Nitrogen Company Limited (Tringen) plant at Point Lisas was turned offline in late September among three other Trinidad producers who temporarily shut production. Nutrien was the first one to idle some of its production looking at the sudden crash in regional prices. While prices across Southeast Asia, Middle East and Russia showed marked improvement during the quarter, Ammonia stocks across Americas remained heavily discounted. Spot Ammonia prices were assessed in the range of USD 170-180 per tonne FOB US Gulf.
Asia
Supply of Ammonia in the Asia Pacific eased in the July-Sep quarter after several Southeast Asian producers resumed normal operations with ease in COVID-led lockdown restrictions. Prices started regaining the lost momentum as improvement in demand fundamentals entering the second half of the year helped in partially offsetting the QoQ decline. Disruptions to the logistics chain and labor shortages which continued to harbor the Indian DAP and NPK fertilizer production in the first half of the year, meant lowered Ammonia feedstock requirements. Spot Ammonia was traded around USD 280.50 per tonne on CFR India basis. Ammonia demand from the northeast Asian chemicals producers showed mixed results, with some spot deals heard into China, Taiwan and South Korea regarding Q3 deliveries.
Europe
The European Ammonia industry was seen grappling with limited sales as industrial and agricultural operations were largely muted due to surging coronavirus infections. Exports were dented due to scheduled turnarounds and unplanned outages which led to fall in Ammonia exports from the Black Sea and Baltic. During the quarter, some Russian Ammonia vessels were booked for South Korea, as a more favorable option than shipping a cheaper cargo from Trinidad. Russia’s total Ammonia production registered record high on YoY basis in July and was priced around USD 180-190 per tonne on FOB basis.
