For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Ammonium Nitrate Price in North America have increased by 5.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reflected in a strong Price Index.
• Despite falling feedstock costs (ammonia, nitric acid), production cost pressures persisted due to weather related disruptions.
• Power outages and weather driven shutdowns at LSB, CF, Nutrien undermined supply; logistics remained viable via strategic inventory.
• Agricultural demand held steady through peak corn-planting season, while construction/mining procurement remained cautious.
Supply-side disruptions affected production levels, with both planned maintenance and unexpected power outages at key facilities in the Midwest and Gulf Coast contributing to reduced output.
• The primary reasons behind the price increase were firm seasonal demand and constrained supply, rather than any substantial shift in production costs.
Why did the prices of Ammonium Nitrate change in July in USA?
• In July 2025, the Ammonium Nitrate Price Index experienced a modest price increase further due to a more widened disparity between demand and supply/
• With the Rice and Cotton planting season in progress the enquiries of Ammonium Nitrate from the domestic market may remain firm.
• With weather continues to get worse followed by heavy downpours and frequent power outage, supply remains constrained.
APAC
• The Ammonium Nitrate Price in Indonesia have increased by 1.42% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, reflected in a strong Price Index.
• Supply risk increased with global market disruptions—particularly involving Russian AN export—due to conflict-driven production halts.
• Domestically, strong fertilizer demand was observed in the middle of the quarter due to the onset of the dry season, which accelerated application in key growing regions.
• Regional demand from Southeast Asian countries added pressure on domestic supply.
• Demand was firm in the South Asian region owing to ongoing planting activities particularly from India.
• Interest from international buyers, anticipating global shortages, added further price momentum.
• Domestic producers in key countries like China, India, and Indonesia maintained moderate output, but some facilities underwent routine maintenance and faced logistics bottlenecks, limiting regional availability.
• Interest from international buyers, anticipating global shortages, added further price momentum.
Why did the prices of Ammonium Nitrate change in July in Asia?
• In July 2025, the Ammonium Nitrate Price Index experienced a modest price increase further due to a more widened disparity between demand and supply.
• Increased demand from Southeast Asia. July marks the peak of the kharif planting season in South Asia, especially in India, driving up fertilizer consumption. Robust agricultural demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers like Ammonium Nitrate added upward pressure on the market.
• Weather-related disruptions and port congestion across Southeast Asia and East Asia affected the delivery schedules of imported cargoes. These logistics bottlenecks reduced available inventory in the short term, raising local prices.
Europe
• The Price Index for imported Ammonium Nitrate in Europe showed modest
fluctuations with the average percentage changes of 2.3% throughout Q2 2025.
• However, in April 2025, the Price Index declined modestly, reflecting a shift from the upward trend seen in March.
• In April, downstream demand was weak, with many growers avoiding bulk procurement due to ongoing agronomic uncertainties.
• A notable gap emerged between producers’ expectations and buyer behavior, with farmers postponing purchases while suppliers anticipated higher volumes.
• Prices moved upward during May and June, following earlier supply-side constraints and heightened regional demand.
• Major producers, including LAT Nitrogen, increased price offers, prompting traders across Northwest Europe to follow suit to maintain margins.
• Seasonal demand in June—especially from agricultural regions in the UK—added further upward momentum to the AN Price Index.
• Shipment delays from Lithuania and Poland, along with port congestion, limited overall market availability and pressured prices higher.
• The UK remained heavily reliant on imports, sourcing from key European partners such as Poland and Lithuania.
• Supply was disrupted by geopolitical tensions, including reports of attacks on Russian facilities and delays in regional exports.
• The June planting season in the UK drove temporary surges in purchasing activity, particularly for nitrogen-based fertilizers like AN.
Why did the prices of Ammonium Nitrate change in July in Europe?
• In July 2025, the Ammonium Nitrate Price Index experienced a modest price increase further due to a more widened disparity between demand and supply.
• Low water levels in major inland waterways like the Rhine River continued to disrupt transport routes across central and western Europe. These logistical bottlenecks delayed deliveries and increased transportation costs, thereby tightening local supply and contributing to higher Ammonium Nitrate prices.
• Russian exports faced growing restrictions due to geopolitical tensions and the European Parliament’s gradual imposition of higher import tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers. This reduced Europe's access to traditionally low-cost imports, pushing buyers to source from costlier alternatives.
• In the United Kingdom, demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained firm during July, driven by delayed fertilizer applications from a wetter-than-expected spring. Growers were applying catch-up doses of nitrogen to support cereal and oilseed crops, leading to increased short-term procurement. Additionally, uncertainty around post-Brexit regulatory changes encouraged early stocking, putting upward pressure on localized pricing.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the Ammonium Nitrate prices in the USA saw a steady upward trend, driven by tight supply and strong seasonal demand. Despite volatility in Ammonia feedstock costs, prices stayed elevated due to production cuts from extreme winter weather. Force majeure declarations by key producers like OCI Beaumont LLC and CF Industries, along with freight disruptions, limited domestic availability. Agricultural demand also picked up as farmers stockpiled ahead of spring planting, especially for crops such as rice and sorghum.
However, irregular weather patterns, including drought concerns and planting delays, led to cautious buying later in the quarter. On the global front, reduced output from Europe and China, coupled with speculation over potential fertilizer tariffs, added to the market’s uncertainty.
This combination of factors—weather-related supply constraints, logistical hurdles, and shifting agricultural sentiment—shaped a price environment marked by upward pressure and cautious optimism throughout the quarter. The overall market reflected a delicate balance between demand recovery and supply limitations.
APAC
In Q1 2025, the Ammonium Nitrate market across the APAC region exhibited mixed trends, shaped by divergent dynamics in China and India. In China, prices initially dipped in January due to subdued demand, oversupply, and declining ammonia feedstock costs. However, prices rebounded in February and March, supported by rising demand ahead of the planting season, restocking activities, and constrained supply due to production disruptions. In contrast, the Indian market experienced steady price increases over the quarter, driven by robust domestic demand from the agricultural and mining sectors amid restricted imports and limited domestic output. Operational bottlenecks in China, such as port congestion and feedstock supply constraints, indirectly influenced regional trade dynamics, tightening availability across APAC. Meanwhile, India’s import reliance and firm consumption kept procurement activity strong. Overall, the APAC Ammonium Nitrate market remained responsive to seasonal agricultural demand, logistical challenges, and production fluctuations, reflecting a region-wide trend of tightening supply amid firm end-user demand, particularly as the planting season accelerated.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the European Ammonium Nitrate market experienced notable volatility with Russia being the most impacted region, reflecting a dynamic interplay of cost, policy, and demand-side drivers. January marked a sharp price rebound driven by higher feedstock costs, RUB appreciation, geopolitical uncertainties, and anticipated European tariffs. However, February brought a phase of price stagnancy as domestic demand and supply reached equilibrium amid a temporary government-imposed export ban to secure fertilizer availability for local farmers. This intervention ensured stable production and ample inventory levels, stabilizing prices. Demand during this period was modest, with some buyer hesitation due to lingering weather-related concerns. In March, prices declined marginally in response to easing feedstock ammonia costs and limited domestic inquiries. Additionally, the EU's anti-dumping duties on Russian Ammonium Nitrate disrupted export routes, contributing to regional supply overhangs and weakening price fundamentals. While local agricultural activity persisted, delayed nitrogen applications due to dry weather capped demand growth. Overall, Q1 reflected a shift from bullish to balanced and eventually softer market conditions in Russia.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Ammonium Nitrate market demonstrated fluctuating price trends during Q4 2024, reflecting stability in October and November before experiencing a marginal surge in December. The price remained stagnant initially, despite fluctuating feedstock costs for Ammonia, Nitric Acid and Ammonia. Subdued seasonal demand from the fertilizer sector contributed to the lack of price movement, with agricultural activities declining as the planting season faded.
However, demand for industrial applications, particularly in mining and explosives, remained steady, supporting market resilience. On the supply side, logistical challenges such as adverse weather, hurricanes, and low Mississippi River water levels constrained production and imports. Persistent bottlenecks, including a labor strike in Canada, further limited supply availability, though effective inventory management mitigated severe shortages.
By December, slight supply tightness coupled with a modest rise in feedstock prices led to a gradual price increase for Ammonium Nitrate. Despite consistent industrial demand, purchasing activity for fertilizers remained cautious, with buyers delaying significant commitments in anticipation of more favorable pricing during winter fill and spring prepay periods. Overall, Q4 showcased a balanced interplay of demand and supply, with steady industrial consumption offsetting seasonal agricultural weakness and supply chain constraints.
Asia- Pacific
The Asia-Pacific Ammonium Nitrate market showed mixed trends during the review period, shaped by regional supply-demand dynamics, logistical hurdles, and external influences. In Indonesia and China, prices declined despite rising feedstock Ammonia cost, as stable domestic production and ample inventories ensured market balance. Subdued export demand from key markets, including the Philippines and New Zealand, impacted by adverse weather disrupting agricultural activities, further pressured prices. Further, Logistical challenges in China, including port congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo, alongside heavy rainfall, caused delays in imports and strained regional supply chains. Vessel bunching and extended waiting times exacerbated supply tightness, influencing market dynamics. Excessive rainfall in southern Asia-Pacific raised concerns over crop damage, particularly for sugarcane, oil palm, and fruit crops, while central regions remained stable for paddy irrigation. Manufacturers across the region maintained consistent production rates, effectively managing rising feedstock costs. However, in the Indian market a slight uptick in price was observed owing to restocking of fertilizer supplies amidst the forthcoming Rabi planting season.
Europe
European Ammonium Nitrate prices have declined recently due to subdued demand from key sectors like agriculture, compounded by oversupply conditions and logistical challenges. Despite rising Ammonia feedstock costs and supply disruptions such as the shutdown of a Norwegian gas platform, production has been curtailed, but ample inventories continue to exert downward price pressure. In the UK, a significant price surge occurred in December 2024, driven by supply chain disruptions and delays in exports from key European suppliers, while buyer interest remained inconsistent due to fluctuating weather conditions. Demand in both Europe and the UK has been weak, with cautious purchasing behavior from the agricultural sector, exacerbated by uncertainties around the upcoming winter planting season and ongoing logistical issues, such as port congestion. These dynamics highlight a market under strain, where supply outpaces demand, and economic factors, including high input costs and weather unpredictability, shape future price trends.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American Ammonium Nitrate market exhibited fluctuating price trends throughout Q3 2024, though it predominantly remained on the lower end. In the early part of the quarter, prices saw a significant decline, primarily driven by subdued demand from the key downstream fertilizer sector
Despite attempts by traders to stimulate prices in anticipation of heightened demand ahead of the upcoming planting season, these efforts did not fully materialize. The region was severely impacted by adverse weather conditions, including hurricanes, heavy rainfall, and storms, which disrupted agricultural cycles and restrained demand for Ammonium Nitrate fertilizers. Although prices experienced a modest recovery in August 2024, this was largely attributed to supply shortages rather than a resurgence in demand. The hurricanes caused significant production disruptions, limiting the availability of Ammonium Nitrate in the market. This supply-side constraint provided some upward pressure on prices.
However, by the latter part of the quarter, prices began to stabilize as the market adjusted to the production setbacks, and demand remained relatively weak in the face of ongoing weather-related challenges. As per ChemAnalyst, the later quarter-ending price of Ammonium Nitrate DEL New York stood at USD 325/MT.
APAC
The Asian Ammonium Nitrate market exhibited a mixed trend during the third quarter of 2024. Prices declined during the initial and final month of the quarter, with China being the most significantly affected. Persistent port congestion within the region led to inventory buildups, as vessels faced extended waiting times—up to four days at Shanghai, two days at Qingdao, and three days at Port Klang. This ship bunching, a lingering effect of earlier port disruptions, has severely impacted the supply chain, contributing to the accumulation of stocks. Combined with subdued demand due to the end of planting season activities, these factors drove prices down. However, in August 2023, prices surged due to adverse weather conditions that disrupted logistics and transportation networks. Typhoon struck China’s Hainan province, bringing torrential rains and winds. The typhoon caused widespread damage, resulting in extensive power outages and significant disruptions to daily life. These conditions further strained transportation infrastructure and power supplies, exacerbating production challenges for key industrial sectors, including Ammonium Nitrate manufacturing. Additionally, preparations for winter planting began to pick up, boosting demand. As per Chemanalyst, the latest quarter ending price of Ammonium Nitrate Spot Ex-Qingdao was hovering at USD 430/MT.
Europe
During Q3, the European Ammonium Nitrate market experienced a significant surge, particularly in Russia, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. This increase in prices was mainly attributed to a shortage of raw materials in the European market. The shortage stemmed from Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, where the critical Sudzha gas transit station is located. Disruption at this key transit point created a ripple effect, impacting European gas supplies and further intensifying the regional shortage of upstream Natural Gas and feedstock Ammonia. The severe scarcity of this essential raw material directly affected Ammonium Nitrate production, resulting in reduced output levels and contributing to the rise in Ammonium Nitrate prices. Demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained moderate, driven by domestic requirements and orders from European importers. However, this demand was largely concentrated among smaller buyers within the region, reflecting a cautious market outlook. Additionally, the market faced further challenges due to fluctuating weather conditions, which impacted demand from the major downstream fertilizer sector. These unpredictable weather patterns made it difficult for farmers to forecast their fertilizer needs, creating a more volatile demand environment. As per ChemAnalyst, the later quarter ending price of Ammonium Nitrate FOB Novorossiysk stood at USD 245/MT.
FAQs
1. Who are the top Ammonium Nitrate producers in Europe?
Key producers in the European Ammonium Nitrate market include Yara International, CF Fertilisers, OCI Nitrogen, and LAT Nitrogen. These companies play a significant role in regional supply and pricing trends through their extensive production capacities and distribution networks.
2. What is the current price of Ammonium Nitrate?
Prices vary by region with North America, Asia and Europe. The price of Ammonium Nitrate was settled at USD 400/MT on a DEL New York basis.
3. What is the Ammonium Nitrate Price Forecast for Q2 2025?
The Ammonium Nitrate Price Index for Q2 2025 is expected to remain moderately firm, supported by steady agricultural demand in Southeast Asia and seasonal consumption in Europe. However, prices may see temporary volatility due to raw material cost fluctuations and geopolitical risks affecting global trade.
4. How is the Ammonium Nitrate Production Cost Trend impacting global prices?
The global production cost trend for Ammonium Nitrate remains elevated, driven by high feedstock prices (Ammonia and Nitric Acid) and rising energy costs. While supply chains have generally stabilized, the upward pressure on manufacturing costs continues to support firm price levels, especially in export-reliant regions.
