For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Ammonium Nitrate Price Index fell by 0.52% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stable environment.
• The average Ammonium Nitrate price for the quarter was approximately USD 384.67/MT, reported by surveys.
• Ammonium Nitrate Spot Price softened as import competition and eased feedstock costs pressured domestic offers.
• Ammonium Nitrate Price Forecast signals modest volatility driven by seasonal demand shifts and intermittent supply.
• Ammonium Nitrate Production Cost Trend reflects lower natural gas influence while ammonia costs may recover.
• Ammonium Nitrate Demand Outlook shows agricultural buying easing but industrial and mining offtake maintaining consumption.
• Inventories and exports influenced the Ammonium Nitrate Price Index, localized shortages encouraged conservative replenishment strategies.
• Major producers reported power disruptions and intermittent outages, tightening availability and supporting short term price resilience.
Why did the price of Ammonium Nitrate change in September 2025 in North America?
• Severe heatwaves and regional power outages disrupted production, reducing inventories and tightening domestic supply chains for the short-term.
• Eased natural gas and ammonia costs limited inflation, partially offsetting supply driven upward price impulses.
• Seasonal agricultural demand softened and competitive imports pressured domestic offers, producing marginal downward pricing momentum.
APAC
• In Indonesia, the Ammonium Nitrate Price Index rose by 0.60% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting balanced supply demand dynamics.
• The average Ammonium Nitrate price for the quarter was approximately USD 500.00/MT, benchmarked nationally industry-wide.
• Ammonium Nitrate Spot Price firmed as inventories tightened and spot availabilities recently constrained domestic trading.
• Ammonium Nitrate Production Cost Trend moved higher on firmer ammonia and natural gas input costs.
• Ammonium Nitrate Demand Outlook remains steady driven by agricultural planting and sustained mining procurement activity.
• Ammonium Nitrate Price Forecast signals volatility as export inquiries and freight disruptions influence markets.
• Domestic producers maintained steady; ensured supply continuity, thereby limiting Price Index shocks.
• Geopolitical import risks and gas cost swings change Ammonium Nitrate Production Cost Trend and pricing.
Why did the price of Ammonium Nitrate change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Sustained agricultural planting and increased mining procurement lifted offtake, supporting Ammonium Nitrate Price Index firmness.
• Firm ammonia and gas costs, combined with freight, kept production costs stable, neutralizing any pressuring.
Europe
• In the UK (United Kingdom), Ammonium Nitrate Price Index rose by 5.36% quarter-over-quarter, supply constraints.
• The average Ammonium Nitrate price for the quarter was USD 458.33/MT on CFR Southampton delivery.
• Ammonium Nitrate Spot Price firmed as import availability tightened and freight, insurance costs supported values.
• Ammonium Nitrate Price Forecast indicates modest volatility from seasonal demand, constrained imports, and logistical pressures.
• Ammonium Nitrate Production Cost Trend increasing as ammonia and gas costs firm into winter period.
• Ammonium Nitrate Demand Outlook remains firm with peak planting, proactive stocking and steady industrial consumption.
• Ammonium Nitrate Price Index reflected EU sanctions, reduced Eastern European exports and landed CFR values.
• Inventories tightness and logistical constraints amplified short-term price sensitivity and prompted cautious buying behavior domestically.
Why did the price of Ammonium Nitrate change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Supply reductions from Eastern Europe and Russia tightened imports, reducing available cargo for UK buyers.
• Elevated ammonia and natural gas costs increased production expenses, pressuring CIF and CFR import pricing.
• Port congestion, higher freight insurance and precautionary buyer stockpiling amplified short-term market tightness, price firming.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Ammonium Nitrate Price in North America have increased by 5.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reflected in a strong Price Index.
• Despite falling feedstock costs (ammonia, nitric acid), production cost pressures persisted due to weather related disruptions.
• Power outages and weather driven shutdowns at LSB, CF, Nutrien undermined supply; logistics remained viable via strategic inventory.
• Agricultural demand held steady through peak corn-planting season, while construction/mining procurement remained cautious.
Supply-side disruptions affected production levels, with both planned maintenance and unexpected power outages at key facilities in the Midwest and Gulf Coast contributing to reduced output.
• The primary reasons behind the price increase were firm seasonal demand and constrained supply, rather than any substantial shift in production costs.
Why did the prices of Ammonium Nitrate change in July in USA?
• In July 2025, the Ammonium Nitrate Price Index experienced a modest price increase further due to a more widened disparity between demand and supply/
• With the Rice and Cotton planting season in progress the enquiries of Ammonium Nitrate from the domestic market may remain firm.
• With weather continues to get worse followed by heavy downpours and frequent power outage, supply remains constrained.
APAC
• The Ammonium Nitrate Price in Indonesia have increased by 1.42% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, reflected in a strong Price Index.
• Supply risk increased with global market disruptions—particularly involving Russian AN export—due to conflict-driven production halts.
• Domestically, strong fertilizer demand was observed in the middle of the quarter due to the onset of the dry season, which accelerated application in key growing regions.
• Regional demand from Southeast Asian countries added pressure on domestic supply.
• Demand was firm in the South Asian region owing to ongoing planting activities particularly from India.
• Interest from international buyers, anticipating global shortages, added further price momentum.
• Domestic producers in key countries like China, India, and Indonesia maintained moderate output, but some facilities underwent routine maintenance and faced logistics bottlenecks, limiting regional availability.
• Interest from international buyers, anticipating global shortages, added further price momentum.
Why did the prices of Ammonium Nitrate change in July in Asia?
• In July 2025, the Ammonium Nitrate Price Index experienced a modest price increase further due to a more widened disparity between demand and supply.
• Increased demand from Southeast Asia. July marks the peak of the kharif planting season in South Asia, especially in India, driving up fertilizer consumption. Robust agricultural demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers like Ammonium Nitrate added upward pressure on the market.
• Weather-related disruptions and port congestion across Southeast Asia and East Asia affected the delivery schedules of imported cargoes. These logistics bottlenecks reduced available inventory in the short term, raising local prices.
Europe
• The Price Index for imported Ammonium Nitrate in Europe showed modest
fluctuations with the average percentage changes of 2.3% throughout Q2 2025.
• However, in April 2025, the Price Index declined modestly, reflecting a shift from the upward trend seen in March.
• In April, downstream demand was weak, with many growers avoiding bulk procurement due to ongoing agronomic uncertainties.
• A notable gap emerged between producers’ expectations and buyer behavior, with farmers postponing purchases while suppliers anticipated higher volumes.
• Prices moved upward during May and June, following earlier supply-side constraints and heightened regional demand.
• Major producers, including LAT Nitrogen, increased price offers, prompting traders across Northwest Europe to follow suit to maintain margins.
• Seasonal demand in June—especially from agricultural regions in the UK—added further upward momentum to the AN Price Index.
• Shipment delays from Lithuania and Poland, along with port congestion, limited overall market availability and pressured prices higher.
• The UK remained heavily reliant on imports, sourcing from key European partners such as Poland and Lithuania.
• Supply was disrupted by geopolitical tensions, including reports of attacks on Russian facilities and delays in regional exports.
• The June planting season in the UK drove temporary surges in purchasing activity, particularly for nitrogen-based fertilizers like AN.
Why did the prices of Ammonium Nitrate change in July in Europe?
• In July 2025, the Ammonium Nitrate Price Index experienced a modest price increase further due to a more widened disparity between demand and supply.
• Low water levels in major inland waterways like the Rhine River continued to disrupt transport routes across central and western Europe. These logistical bottlenecks delayed deliveries and increased transportation costs, thereby tightening local supply and contributing to higher Ammonium Nitrate prices.
• Russian exports faced growing restrictions due to geopolitical tensions and the European Parliament’s gradual imposition of higher import tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers. This reduced Europe's access to traditionally low-cost imports, pushing buyers to source from costlier alternatives.
• In the United Kingdom, demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained firm during July, driven by delayed fertilizer applications from a wetter-than-expected spring. Growers were applying catch-up doses of nitrogen to support cereal and oilseed crops, leading to increased short-term procurement. Additionally, uncertainty around post-Brexit regulatory changes encouraged early stocking, putting upward pressure on localized pricing.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the Ammonium Nitrate prices in the USA saw a steady upward trend, driven by tight supply and strong seasonal demand. Despite volatility in Ammonia feedstock costs, prices stayed elevated due to production cuts from extreme winter weather. Force majeure declarations by key producers like OCI Beaumont LLC and CF Industries, along with freight disruptions, limited domestic availability. Agricultural demand also picked up as farmers stockpiled ahead of spring planting, especially for crops such as rice and sorghum.
However, irregular weather patterns, including drought concerns and planting delays, led to cautious buying later in the quarter. On the global front, reduced output from Europe and China, coupled with speculation over potential fertilizer tariffs, added to the market’s uncertainty.
This combination of factors—weather-related supply constraints, logistical hurdles, and shifting agricultural sentiment—shaped a price environment marked by upward pressure and cautious optimism throughout the quarter. The overall market reflected a delicate balance between demand recovery and supply limitations.
APAC
In Q1 2025, the Ammonium Nitrate market across the APAC region exhibited mixed trends, shaped by divergent dynamics in China and India. In China, prices initially dipped in January due to subdued demand, oversupply, and declining ammonia feedstock costs. However, prices rebounded in February and March, supported by rising demand ahead of the planting season, restocking activities, and constrained supply due to production disruptions. In contrast, the Indian market experienced steady price increases over the quarter, driven by robust domestic demand from the agricultural and mining sectors amid restricted imports and limited domestic output. Operational bottlenecks in China, such as port congestion and feedstock supply constraints, indirectly influenced regional trade dynamics, tightening availability across APAC. Meanwhile, India’s import reliance and firm consumption kept procurement activity strong. Overall, the APAC Ammonium Nitrate market remained responsive to seasonal agricultural demand, logistical challenges, and production fluctuations, reflecting a region-wide trend of tightening supply amid firm end-user demand, particularly as the planting season accelerated.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the European Ammonium Nitrate market experienced notable volatility with Russia being the most impacted region, reflecting a dynamic interplay of cost, policy, and demand-side drivers. January marked a sharp price rebound driven by higher feedstock costs, RUB appreciation, geopolitical uncertainties, and anticipated European tariffs. However, February brought a phase of price stagnancy as domestic demand and supply reached equilibrium amid a temporary government-imposed export ban to secure fertilizer availability for local farmers. This intervention ensured stable production and ample inventory levels, stabilizing prices. Demand during this period was modest, with some buyer hesitation due to lingering weather-related concerns. In March, prices declined marginally in response to easing feedstock ammonia costs and limited domestic inquiries. Additionally, the EU's anti-dumping duties on Russian Ammonium Nitrate disrupted export routes, contributing to regional supply overhangs and weakening price fundamentals. While local agricultural activity persisted, delayed nitrogen applications due to dry weather capped demand growth. Overall, Q1 reflected a shift from bullish to balanced and eventually softer market conditions in Russia.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Ammonium Nitrate market demonstrated fluctuating price trends during Q4 2024, reflecting stability in October and November before experiencing a marginal surge in December. The price remained stagnant initially, despite fluctuating feedstock costs for Ammonia, Nitric Acid and Ammonia. Subdued seasonal demand from the fertilizer sector contributed to the lack of price movement, with agricultural activities declining as the planting season faded.
However, demand for industrial applications, particularly in mining and explosives, remained steady, supporting market resilience. On the supply side, logistical challenges such as adverse weather, hurricanes, and low Mississippi River water levels constrained production and imports. Persistent bottlenecks, including a labor strike in Canada, further limited supply availability, though effective inventory management mitigated severe shortages.
By December, slight supply tightness coupled with a modest rise in feedstock prices led to a gradual price increase for Ammonium Nitrate. Despite consistent industrial demand, purchasing activity for fertilizers remained cautious, with buyers delaying significant commitments in anticipation of more favorable pricing during winter fill and spring prepay periods. Overall, Q4 showcased a balanced interplay of demand and supply, with steady industrial consumption offsetting seasonal agricultural weakness and supply chain constraints.
Asia- Pacific
The Asia-Pacific Ammonium Nitrate market showed mixed trends during the review period, shaped by regional supply-demand dynamics, logistical hurdles, and external influences. In Indonesia and China, prices declined despite rising feedstock Ammonia cost, as stable domestic production and ample inventories ensured market balance. Subdued export demand from key markets, including the Philippines and New Zealand, impacted by adverse weather disrupting agricultural activities, further pressured prices. Further, Logistical challenges in China, including port congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo, alongside heavy rainfall, caused delays in imports and strained regional supply chains. Vessel bunching and extended waiting times exacerbated supply tightness, influencing market dynamics. Excessive rainfall in southern Asia-Pacific raised concerns over crop damage, particularly for sugarcane, oil palm, and fruit crops, while central regions remained stable for paddy irrigation. Manufacturers across the region maintained consistent production rates, effectively managing rising feedstock costs. However, in the Indian market a slight uptick in price was observed owing to restocking of fertilizer supplies amidst the forthcoming Rabi planting season.
Europe
European Ammonium Nitrate prices have declined recently due to subdued demand from key sectors like agriculture, compounded by oversupply conditions and logistical challenges. Despite rising Ammonia feedstock costs and supply disruptions such as the shutdown of a Norwegian gas platform, production has been curtailed, but ample inventories continue to exert downward price pressure. In the UK, a significant price surge occurred in December 2024, driven by supply chain disruptions and delays in exports from key European suppliers, while buyer interest remained inconsistent due to fluctuating weather conditions. Demand in both Europe and the UK has been weak, with cautious purchasing behavior from the agricultural sector, exacerbated by uncertainties around the upcoming winter planting season and ongoing logistical issues, such as port congestion. These dynamics highlight a market under strain, where supply outpaces demand, and economic factors, including high input costs and weather unpredictability, shape future price trends.
