For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Base Oil Price Index rose by 2.25% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stable refinery runs.
• The average Base Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1755.00/MT, in Gulf assessments.
• Base Oil Spot Price remained range-bound amid steady Gulf Coast runs and muted export buying.
• Base Oil Price Forecast shows modest gains later as restocking expectations offset soft lubricant demand.
• Base Oil Production Cost Trend eased as crude futures softened, offset by higher trucking insurance.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook remains subdued with lower lubricant orders and muted automotive parts activity.
• Base Oil Price Index stability supported by ample inventories despite constrained spot availability, cautious exports.
• Major Gulf Coast producers ran full rates with no unplanned outages, tempering upward price pressure.
Why did the price of Base Oil change in September 2025 in North America?
• Balanced domestic production and resumed refinery runs reduced supply concerns, keeping prices steady in September.
• Seasonal demand slowdown after Labor Day weakened lubricant orders, suppressing spot buying and pricing momentum.
• Crude oil softness trimmed production costs, while weather risks and logistics delays supported limited upside.
APAC
• In Indonesia, the Base Oil Price Index rose by 2.66% quarter-over-quarter, on firmer export demand.
• The average Base Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 901.67/MT, per Tanjung Priok.
• Regional assessments showed Base Oil Spot Price narrowing amid cheaper Chinese exports and easing freight pressure.
• Base Oil Price Forecast projects modest range-bound moves as Base Oil Production Cost Trend eased slightly regionally.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook remains subdued due to monsoon season and weaker automotive sales continuing.
• Balanced inventories and export enquiry kept the Base Oil Price Index stable amid refinery disruptions.
• Lower feedstock crude and turnarounds reduced costs, while some Chinese units ran reduced rates selectively.
• Export enquiry remained muted but intermittent orders from Southeast Asia provided occasional prompt cargo support.
Why did the price of Base Oil change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Oversupply from resumed Chinese exports and ample regional inventories pressured domestic demand and spot offtake.
• Declining crude futures reduced production costs, while port congestion and freight variability influenced import parity.
• Seasonal monsoon slowdown and weak automotive consumption caused destocking and reduced buying, keeping bearish sentiment.
Europe
• In Germany, the Base Oil Price Index rose by 2.9% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting firmer transatlantic flows.
• The average Base Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 958.67/MT, indicating stable equilibrium.
• Base Oil Spot Price softened as abundant imports and lower crude futures eased short-term pressure.
• Base Oil Production Cost Trend eased as crude futures retreated, lowering manufacturing margins and costs.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook remains weak as summer holidays curb automotive and lubricant purchases regionally.
• Base Oil Price Forecast expects range-bound movement as inventories remain comfortable and demand recovers gradually.
• Higher freight and occasional US plant turnarounds tightened supply, supporting the Base Oil Price Index.
• Regional inventories remained adequate, capping volatility while export arbitrage and Rhine logistics influenced cargo movements.
Why did the price of Base Oil change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Summer holiday lull sharply reduced lubricant and automotive purchases, leaving demand insufficient to absorb supply.
• Easing crude futures lowered feedstock costs, transmitting downward pressure through spot Base Oil valuations regionally.
• Logistics disruptions and higher freight encouraged precautionary inventory building, offsetting bearish pricing momentum during September.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Base Oil Price Index rose by 1.45% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tightened supply.
• The average Base Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 652.33/MT as reported by FOB assessments.
• Base Oil Spot Price remained pressured by competitive cargoes and ample inventories across Yanbu, Jeddah.
• Base Oil Price Forecast suggests modest range-bound movements as seasonal demand offsets occasional supply disruptions.
• Base Oil Production Cost Trend improved with lower feedstock crude prices, easing operating cost pressures.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook remains subdued amid summer lull, automotive and lubricant offtake constraining purchases.
• Inventory builds and increased freight costs pressured sellers despite routine maintenance refinery run-rates in region.
• Export demand softened with competitive offers from multiple origins, while Luberef and refiners maintained loading.
Why did the price of Base Oil change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Ample cargo availability from Yanbu and Jeddah increased competition, pressuring FOB levels and regional prices.
• Soft downstream demand amid summer lull and subdued automotive sales reduced spot purchasing and volumes.
• Lower feedstock crude prices eased production cost pressures, offsetting higher freight and rerouting logistics expenses.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
Asia-Pacific
• Base Oil Group I SN150 FOB Qingdao remained stable on a quarter-on-quarter basis. However, prices rose to USD 955/MT, Base Oil ll H 500 FOB Qingdao (China) by the end of June.
• The recent price uptick stemmed from Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, which endangered nearly half of China’s crude inflows and boosted CIF costs. A weakening yuan and high freight charges also allowed refiners to uphold higher offers.
• Why did the price of Base Oil change in July 2025 in China?
• Increased geopolitical tension and feedstock cost pressures spurred a mild price rise, although weak downstream demand limited the extent of gains.
• Base Oil Production Cost Trend fluctuated. Although feedstock crude prices remained volatile, domestic base oil production ramped up after multiple turnarounds. New capacity from PetroChina’s Fushun plant added bright stock volumes.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook was muted, with buyers holding inventories post-spring and delaying new purchases amid tariff uncertainty. Lubricant demand remained weak across the transformer, marine, and tire segments.
• Domestic procurement showed restrained buying. Despite May's automotive sales rebound (+13% y/y), base oil orders lagged due to conservative inventory strategies and limited lubricant sector optimism.
North America
•Base Oil Group II H600 FOB Texas marginally increased by 1.1% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. However, settling at USD 1975/MT Base Oil Group II H 600 FOB Texas by early July. Prices held steady despite a prior bullish 12-week trend as supply normalization and weak demand created balanced market conditions.
• Price volatility was minimal during Q2. A temporary uptrend in June (e.g., Group II H100 rose 2.5%) was driven by lower U.S. crude stocks and tighter VGO supply. However, falling feedstock costs post-ceasefire in the Middle East reestablished price stability.
• Why did the price of Base Oil change in July 2025 in the USA?
• Prices remained rangebound due to no production outages, lower crude values, and lackluster lubricant demand despite summer seasonality.
• The Base Oil Production Cost Trend declined as refiners like Motiva, Chevron, and Excel Paralubes resumed operations post-turnaround, while falling crude oil prices reduced manufacturing costs.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook stayed weak. Despite rising U.S. auto sales in May, lubricant and tire-sector consumption lagged due to high inventories, tariff concerns, and lower downstream orders.
• Domestic procurement remained cautious as buyers prioritized depleting existing stocks. Export interest from Mexico and Brazil weakened due to trade disruptions and license issues, capping U.S. base oil market momentum.
Europe
• Base Oil Group II H150 FD Hamburg marginally declined by 1.1% through Q2 2025, settling at USD 1323/MT Base Oil II H 500 FD Hamburg (Germany), by mid-June. Prices held firm despite a prior bearish 12-week trend as ample supply and subdued demand maintained market equilibrium.
• Price movement was limited during Q2. While crude oil cost volatility and low Rhine river levels introduced minor logistical cost pressures, balanced blender inventories and cautious procurement sustained price stability.
• Why did the price of Base Oil change in July 2025 in Germany?
• Prices stayed rangebound as summer holidays approached, with supply normalizing post-US refinery turnarounds and buyers delaying purchases amid tariff uncertainty.
• Base Oil Production Cost Trend eased due to lower feedstock crude prices and the resumption of U.S. base oil exports post-maintenance. Freight rates from the U.S. to Europe also declined slightly, supporting stable landed costs.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook remained soft. Automotive and lubricant sectors showed weak performance, with Q2 vehicle sales down y/y. Buyers continued inventory drawdowns while monitoring evolving U.S. tariff risks.
• Domestic procurement in Europe was subdued, with finished lubricant blenders limiting purchases to essential volumes. Tariff uncertainty and inflationary concerns kept base oil buyers cautious across major European markets.
Middle East (Saudi Arabia)
•Base Oil Group-II H150 FOB Dammam marginally increased by 1.2% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. However, the overall trend held steady through Q2 2025, settling at USD 1423/MT Base Oil Group-II H 150 FOB Dammam by the end of June. Despite regional geopolitical risks, prices remained rangebound amid stable supply and weak demand.
• Prices trended sideways as Luberef’s Yanbu and Jeddah plants operated at high utilization, and no major supply disruptions were reported. A 1.8% drop in upstream crude oil prices eased production costs, offsetting any freight-related bullish pressure.
• Why did the price of Base Oil change in July 2025 in Saudi Arabia?
• Prices held flat amid balanced fundamentals. Stable production and high inventories capped gains, while limited downstream demand prevented any price recovery.
• The Base Oil Production Cost Trend declined as crude oil prices fell and refineries resumed post-turnaround operations. Improved supply from Saudi Arabia and the UAE maintained regional availability despite freight rate volatility.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook remained subdued. The lubricant and automotive sectors saw slower activity due to the summer lull and Hajj holidays. Buyers remained cautious amid tariff disruptions and weak downstream lubricant sales.
• Domestic procurement in Saudi Arabia stayed conservative as buyers relied on existing stocks. Export interest to the UAE and India softened due to finished lubricant oversupply and export constraints, keeping base oil values stable.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
During the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. base oil prices remained relatively stable, supported by a careful balance of supply and demand. At the start of January 2025, domestic supply was generally sufficient due to increased export activity by U.S. producers, but certain grades became tight because of production cutbacks aimed at avoiding an oversupply situation.
However, February 2025 saw a slight uptick in demand, particularly from the lubricants sector, as manufacturers prepared for the spring production season. This, combined with planned plant maintenance and unexpected disruptions at key facilities, tightened supply further. Despite low crude oil costs helping to reduce production expenses, concerns over future supply and tariffs led to a modest market rebound by late February.
March brought additional supply challenges in the base oil market with a force majeure declared by two major producers due to severe weather. Another refinery remained offline for scheduled maintenance, further straining availability during this timeframe. Demand continued to climb, driven by seasonal lubricant needs and rising vehicle sales, though market sentiment was tempered by caution over new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2025, the base oil prices in Indonesia remained largely stable with a marginal uptick. At the start of January, market activity was subdued as many participants paused operations due to year-end holidays. However, some suppliers began building inventories in anticipation of the Lunar New Year and possible disruptions. These pre-holiday stockpiling efforts helped maintain a balanced market even as certain base oil grades from China faced tightness due to planned plant shutdowns and permanent closures. The Indonesian Pertamina plant in Cilacap was offline for much of February, adding to the supply strain. Despite these challenges, declining feedstock crude oil prices and lower intra-Asia freight costs helped ease upward pressure on prices, allowing the market to remain steady. By March, while actual demand from lubricants and automotive sectors stayed low, tight spot availability and planned maintenance spurred buyers to secure volumes early, creating artificial demand. This cautious yet proactive buying behavior kept the market balanced. Overall, countering forces of limited supply and weak demand helped maintain stability in Indonesia’s base oil market to settle base oil prices at USD 1127/Base Oil II H 500 CFR Tanjung Priok during the concluding week of March 2025.
Europe
The first quarter of 2025 in the European Base Oil prices has been characterized by a declining trend. Quarterly, base oil prices in Germany have declined by 6% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. While crude oil prices were relatively high at the start of the year, the overall market for base oils was weak. Demand was particularly low during the year-end holidays and remained subdued well into the first quarter. This was largely due to limited activity in the automotive and lubricant sectors, as well as broader economic uncertainty across Europe. As February 2025 began, Group I base oils were generally available which declined the price trend. Demand from the downstream lubricant sector remained soft as automotive sector performance was underwhelming, with falling vehicle sales and uncertainty caused by potential tariff hikes. However, by March, the base oil prices maintained their stable outlook. Buyers were cautious, making smaller purchases rather than building up large inventories. Although some supply disruptions were expected in April due to upcoming refinery maintenance, the overall availability was still sufficient in March to meet market needs.
MEA
Throughout the first quarter of 2025, base oil prices in the Middle East remained mostly stable despite facing several regional and global pressures. The market showed resilience even as geopolitical tensions flared across the Middle East, particularly due to disruptions in the Red Sea and ongoing conflicts involving Israel, Yemen, and Iran. These tensions caused supply chain challenges, including increased shipping costs and longer routes, yet base oil deliveries continued steadily to UAE ports like Fujairah, Sharjah, and Dubai. The supply of base oils remained relatively balanced. This consistency in supply, combined with softened crude oil prices in February 2025, kept manufacturing costs in check and helped maintain stable base oil prices. Demand, however, remained subdued through most of the quarter. Orders were slow during the holiday season and stayed low into the early months of the year. Uncertainty around potential tariffs and continued regional instability also made buyers hesitant. The downstream lubricant and automotive sectors, key consumers of base oils, experienced weak performance, contributing to the sluggish demand. By March, demand from the downstream lubricant sector was tempered by cautious buying due to the Ramadan festival which further kept the base oil prices stable in the UAE.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
Throughout Q4 2024, the North American Base oil market showcased stability with a marginal drop. While as compared to the third quarter of 2024 the base oil prices has declined by 1% on the back of low demand from the downstream lubricants sector.
During October 2024, suppliers had sufficient inventories that they had built up in anticipation of the hurricane season, hoping to secure more favorable pricing when they eventually released these barrels. Furthermore, the year-long demand for base oils has been somewhat weak, and the recent price reductions have not much increased sales.
With the devastation wrought by hurricanes in Florida and other coastal regions, base oil producers have grown more cautious, reducing spot market sales to assure enough supply through October and November which kept the pricing dynamics stable. Moreover, the destocking affect has begun in December to avoid tax implications at the end of the year which affected the market sentiments of Base oil prices to showcase a decline.
APAC
The fourth quarter of 2024 for Base Oil in the APAC region has been characterized by decreasing prices, influenced by several key factors. Despite plant shutdowns, the availability of most base oil grades was deemed adequate in October 2024 due to sluggish lubricant consumption in the region. Following the National Day holidays in early October, market activity in China witnessed a slight revival as some buyers returned to replenish their stocks. However, uncertainties surrounding imports prompted many consumers to opt for domestic products. Henceforth, the availability of plentiful domestic supplies at competitive prices further incentivized buyers to prioritize domestic sources which supported the downtrend during this timeframe. Moreover, the continuous decline in the feedstock Crude oil prices in November has declined the manufacturing costs. The market dynamics has shifted towards bearishness as most of the base oil producers have ample availability which delays the stock level purchases. Moreover, as the December begins to end, both imports and domestic suppliers looking to de-stock as the demand from the downstream lubricants sector remained weak, influenced by seasonality amid market players aiming to reduce stock levels toward the year end.
Europe
The fourth quarter of 2024 in the European Base Oil market has been characterized by declining trend followed by stability. In October, the Germany base oil market has remained relatively stable. Numerous disruptions, including extreme rainfall in Europe hampered export levels. While disruptions have impacted certain aspects of the market, overall availability has remained sufficient to meet demand amid businesses have adjusted their operations to mitigate the impact of supply chain disruptions. However, in November, base oil prices has declined post ExxonMobil's timely inventory release has helped to alleviate supply tensions and kept the market supply sufficient to cater to the low demand from the downstream lubricant industry. Moreover, the continuous decline in the feedstock Crude oil prices has declined the manufacturing costs. Several suppliers reduced their posted prices in December to clear inventories before the year-end. As the year draws to a close, many operations within the European region are planning extended breaks during the Christmas and New Year holiday period.
MEA
The Middle East base oil market experienced a dynamic fourth quarter in 2024, characterized by a period of decline followed by a period of stability. In October, the Saudi Arabian base oil market displayed a relatively stable trajectory. While disruptions, such as conflicts in the Middle East, impacted export levels, overall base oil availability remained sufficient to meet market demand. Businesses within the region effectively adapted their operations to mitigate the impact of supply chain disruptions. However, in November, a notable decline in base oil prices emerged. This downward trend was primarily attributed to adequate supply to cater to the subdued demand from the downstream lubricant industry. Furthermore, the continuous decline in feedstock crude oil prices led to a reduction in manufacturing costs, further contributing to the downward price pressure. In December, several base oil suppliers proactively reduced their posted prices to clear existing inventories before the year-end. As the year drew to a close, many operations within Middle East regions planned extended breaks during the Christmas and New Year holiday period, further impacting market activity.
