For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The Biodiesel price trend showcased bearish movement during Q1 of 2023. During the quarter feedstock, Soyabean Oil prices contracted amid increased supplies and moderate consumption rates. It negatively affected production costs. At the beginning of Q1, the consumption was stable amid low temperatures during winter. From the mid-quarter, the demand declined amid the rise in temperature and improvement in supply chain activities. Inventory levels rose amid improved supplies of Diesel due to increased refinery run rates after the spring maintenance activities, and offtakes remained stable for fuel blending purposes. Simultaneously, buyers were consciously making purchases due to high inflation and increased interest rates by Federal Reserve.
Asia
In the Asian region, the Biodiesel price trend oscillated throughout the Q1 of 2023. Initially, the price trend showcased mixed sentiments as Indonesian Palm oil exporters banned their oil exports, which limited the production rates in South Korea. While other Asian buyers like India and China shifted their interest towards Malaysia and imported feedstock Palm oil from Malaysia at lower costs. However, during the mid-quarter, palm oil exports fell from Malaysia amid decreased Palm output due to heavy rainfall in the country. It affected the production rates and stressed the inventory levels of Biodiesel. Consequently, Biodiesel prices rose during the mid-quarter and remained firm till the end of Q1.
Europe
The Biodiesel price trend remained stable, and prices shifted slightly during the Q1 of 2023. At the beginning of Q1, prices rose marginally due to reduced output by farmers of feedstock rapeseed and the consequent decline in operating rates, which stressed the inventory levels. In the mid-quarter, the demand declined amid rising temperature and decreased feedstock UCOME prices and rapeseed oil costs due to a contraction in offtakes from end-users. The production rates remained moderate during the period. At the end of the quarter, the market sentiments continued to remain bearish amid weak demand for Diesel fuel blending and Diesel offtakes.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
During the fourth quarter of 2022, Biodiesel prices fluctuated as the feedstock palm and soybean oil prices varied throughout the quarter. North American regions consume soybean oil in substantial quantities to produce Biodiesel. In October, the Biodiesel production capacity inclined in the US market as the feedstock (soybean oil) demand declined. As the stockpile availability was sufficient in the domestic market to cater to the domestic market, the overall prices declined. Biodiesel consumption has been made mandatory by the federal renewable fuel standard of the USA; hence, industrial operations were moderate. Towards the quarter's end, supply chains faced disruptions caused by the storm Elliot in several parts of North America.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia-Pacific region, Biodiesel prices moved southwards on the back of declining feedstock prices from major Asian exporting countries. The Lockdown phase persisted in Chinese cities, which hampered the county's production activity, restricted movement within the neighborhood's residential sections, and slowed countrywide operations. The domestic market was mute as a result of limited market and transportation mobility. These factors affected the Biodiesel manufacturing facilities because there were no inquiries about the product in the inventory. Suppliers and producers were forced to decrease prices as a result of the dullness of the market. Additionally, the delayed demand for the product from the transportation industry continued to have an impact on the Chinese biodiesel market. Malaysia and Indonesia are the feedstock-providing countries, and the oversupply of the product in the respective countries and competitive behavior pressured them to decline the exporting prices in the international market. As a ripple effect, the Biodiesel prices for UCO FOB Qingdao (China) settled at USD 1298/MT.
Europe
During the fourth quarter of 2022, the Biodiesel market dynamics followed stagnancy as the overall demand for Biodiesel was static amidst the rising fuel prices. The cost of producing Biodiesel increased correspondingly as energy costs remained high. The import of Biodiesel decreased due to the German government's concentration on food services to meet demand from the downstream industry. Following the natural disaster that damaged the Malaysian region, the product supply from Malaysia faced hefty delays. Despite the poor industrial output and rising energy prices, the European market remained quiet. According to market insiders, industries laid off workers since the approaching quarter threatens to see a recession in the domestic economy. Suppliers had witnessed slower demand from consumers in buying the products, which put pressure on them to maintain stable costs. Thus, the discussion of Biodiesel prices for FD Hamburg (Germany) settled at USD 2642/MT.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
During the third Quarter of 2022, Biodiesel prices witnessed dwindling market dynamics owing to the fluctuating demand outlook. As per market players, palm oil prices fell in July and August as the demand from downstream biodiesel production remained low, impacting the prices of Biodiesel in the domestic market. However, in September, the importing prices of feedstock palm oil from major producing countries, such as Indonesia, and Malaysia, were soft, proportionally impacting the production cost. Furthermore, the demand for Biodiesel from the downstream transportation sector was low, with fewer inventories. As a ripple effect, Biodiesel prices decreased by more than 5.1% in the third Quarter of 2022.
Asia Pacific
In the Chinese region, the Biodiesel price witnessed a diverse trend in the third Quarter as the feedstock, palm, coconut, and soybean oil prices remained declining, proportionally impacting the production cost of Biodiesel. As per market players, the demand outlook from a downstream sector, such as transportation, was slow, leading to the price decline in July and August. The domestic market remained silenced on account of restricted market and transportation movement. These facets have impacted the manufacturing units of Biodiesel as the inventories did not witness inquiries about the product. Suppliers and producers had to decrease market prices due to market dullness. After the continuous recession in Biodiesel prices in China, the market dynamics of Biodiesel regained growth in September. As a ripple effect, the Biodiesel prices for UCO FOB Qingdao (China) settled at USD 1550/MT.
Europe
During the third Quarter of 2022, the Biodiesel prices remained dull as the significant manufacturers faced easy supply from feed-supplying countries, i.e., Indonesia and Malaysia. The ample availability of feedstock and the high production rate significantly impacted biodiesel prices in the Netherlands. As the demand for biofuels increased in the domestic market, biofuel manufacturers demonstrated consistent demand for their products. The domestic market's biodiesel production rate has increased to reduce reliance on fuel from major producing countries. Thus, the discussion of Biodiesel prices for FOB Rotterdam (Netherlands) settled at USD 2570/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
A decline in the prices of Biodiesel occurred in the North American market during the second quarter of 2022. The major manufacturers of Biodiesel quoted the prices at USD 2085 per MT, FAME Ex-Missouri, USA, and USD 2375 per MT, SME Ex-Missouri, the USA, towards the quarter-end. A food crisis occurred in the market as commodity inflation happened. In order to conquer the food shortage, biodiesel production was temporarily terminated, leading to a price decline. Edible oil, including sunflower and palm oil prices, skyrocketed proportionally, impacting the market dynamics of Biodiesel in the North American market. Furthermore, as petroleum prices declined, biodiesel consumption and demand declined from end-users. Supply shortages from Asian regions hindered the smooth production of Biodiesel in the regional market, impacting the market prices.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia-Pacific region, positive growth was witnessed in Biodiesel prices during the second quarter of 2022. Indonesia and Malaysia are the major producers of feed and palm oil. These countries banned the export of feed palm oil, resulting in feed shortage with Biodiesel manufacturers leading to high production costs in the regional market. Food oil prices skyrocketed due to commodity inflation. Furthermore, Indonesia and Malaysia faced a palm seed shortage due to a lack of fertilizers and labor in the regional market. Moreover, the demand for Biodiesel escalated in the regional market, significantly raising the market prices of Biodiesel. Compared with Q1, the prices of Biodiesel were on a positive edge in Q2 of 2022. The price quotations ranged between USD 1782 per MT, Ex-Tanjung Priok in April to USD 1917 per MT, Ex-Tanjung Priok in June Indonesia.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2022, market sentiments toward Biodiesel remained strong in the European market on the back of inflated feed and edible oil prices. In Q2, the prices were observed at USD 2487 per MT, FOB Rotterdam Netherlands towards the quarter-end. The inclination occurred as the market prices of feedstock; palm oil showcased bearish behavior throughout the quarter. Frenzy feed supply and increased gasoline prices led to the high production cost of Biodiesel, which proportionally raised the quoted prices in the regional market. Furthermore, the demand for Biodiesel production escalated as the government wanted to decrease the dependency on petroleum-based fuel. These facets equally contributed to raising the prices of Biodiesel in the European market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The Biodiesel prices in the North American market witnessed mixed sentiment during the first quarter of 2022. When compared with Q4 of 2021, the Biodiesel market witnessed dip of 20.4% in Q1 of 2022. The price quotations rose towards the quarter end after the political tension between Russia and Ukraine raised, proportionally affecting the biodiesel prices. Supply shortage hampered the production rate of Biodiesel in the US market, as major feed supplying countries faced palm oil crisis in their regional market along with the trade route disruption that has been affected. Moreover, sunflower prices skyrocketed in the North American market, which proportionally escalated the biodiesel production cost, showcasing positive outlook in Q1 of 2022. The prices of Biodiesel in Q1 ranged from USD1922/ton, FAME Ex-Missouri to USD1820/ton, FAME Ex-Missouri, USA towards the quarter ending March 2022.
Asia Pacific
The market sentiments for Biodiesel in the Asia Pacific region remained strengthened during the first quarter of 2022. Major feed supplying Asian countries like Indonesia suffered from feed crisis (palm oil) in the domestic market, restricting the export to overseas market after the implementation of policies by the Indonesian government. Moreover, deforestation became another driving factors for sporadic variations in the market of Biodiesel. Surging demand of biofuel forced the major players to increase their production rate. As compared with Q4 of 2021, upwards trajectory was followed in the first quarter of 2022 of approximately 12%. In this quarter, the prices of Biodiesel landed at USD2248/ton, HVO FOB Tanjung Priok, Indonesia in the first quarter end of 2022.
Europe
In Q1 2022, the Biodiesel market in the European region showcased mixed sentiments throughout the first quarter. In Q1, the prices reached USD1970/ton HVO FOB Rotterdam in the month of January and reached at USD1865/ton, HVO FOB Rotterdam, Netherland towards the quarter end. The limited availability of feedstock due to the restricted feed supply from significant suppliers and higher production cost forced the manufacturers to raise the offered quotations for Biodiesel in the European domestic market. Owing to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, trade route disruption occurred in the regional market impacting the Biodiesel market. As compared with Q4 of 2021, Biodiesel market witnessed a suppression of 14% in the first quarter of 2022.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
The Biodiesel market in the North American market witnessed a mixed sentiment during the fourth quarter of 2021. The offers witnessed a persistent uptrend till the first half of the quarter and eased during the second half of the quarter. The US EPA proposed easing the Biofuel blending rates after the strong resistance from the downstream market players due to the badly hampered biofuel market because of COVID. Whereas the Biodiesel RINs in D4 2021, was settled at USD 1.385 RIN, during the constantly fluctuating demand against the strong support from the feedstock. In response, the USDA to provide economic relief to Biofuel producers and restore renewable fuel markets. As a ripple effect, the Ex-Missouri discussions for Biodiesel FAME offers settled at USD 2188 per tonne, during the quarter ending.
Asia Pacific
The market sentiments for Biodiesel in the Asia Pacific region remained strengthened during the fourth quarter of 2021. In addition, the producer's quotations for the Southeast Asian region witnessed unprecedented growth after the market player paced up the investments towards a greener economy. Whereas, in India, overall demand has surged to a level that black marketing and fake biofuels were in circulation in the past few months. However, this did not budge manufacturers from speculating around expanding their perspective production capacities to meet domestic requirements. Although the offers eased in the latter half of the quarter after the government decided to slash taxes by a certain margin. As a ripple effect, the Ex-Depot Mumbai discussions for Biodiesel were assessed at USD 1268 per tonne in December.
Europe
Overall, the Biodiesel market in the European market sentiments remained uplifted throughout the fourth quarter of 2021, this trend is majorly attributed to the supply glut amidst the ongoing energy crisis in Europe. The limited availability of feedstock due to the restricted run rates and higher production cost forced the suppliers to raise the offered quotations for Biodiesel in the European domestic market. Whereas, the rebound in the pricing of Crude Oil kept the PMI index high throughout the region. Whereas, the demand outlook varies with the resurgence of the omicron variant of COVID 19. However, the demand outlook outstripped the supply. In response, the offers for Biodiesel surpassed the USD 2000 per tonne mark in December.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
The prices of Biodiesel observed a significant rise in the North American market during the third quarter of 2021. Restricted supply of raw materials from the Asian countries due to the increased freight cost has resulted in steep rise in the price trend of Biodiesel across the region. In addition, the prices of global Palm Oil and Rapeseed grew effectively in this quarter as well which further impacted the prices of Biodiesel in the country in Q3 2021. The demand from the downstream industries remained stable to firm throughout the quarter.
Asia
During the third quarter of 2021, the pricing trend of Biodiesel witnessed an upward approach in the Asian market. The prices of Biodiesel remained firm in Q3 due to the disruption in the supply of the key raw materials across the region. Soaring domestic fuel prices have propelled the demand for biofuel in India. Ex-Works prices of Biodiesel escalated from USD 859/mt to USD 935/mt during Q3 2021. In addition, the demand for Biodiesel is consistently improving in the region, thereby supporting its prices. Rising upstream feedstock cost further exacerbated the overall pricing of Biodiesel in the region.
Europe
The European market experienced a surge in the pricing trend of Biodiesel, backed by the critical global shortage of upstream feedstock palm and rapeseed oil in Q3 2021. Increased prices of palm and rapeseed oil led to the hike in the prices of downstream products including Biodiesel across the region. In addition, the European export demand for Biodiesel from several Asian countries remained firm while production levels remained impacted that compelled its prices to stay high throughout the quarter.
For Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
North American Biodiesel market experienced a steep rise in prices of Biodiesel during the previous quarter till the end of April 2021 backed by limited supply against strong demand fundamentals across the region. In addition, soaring global Palm Oil and Rapeseed prices also effectively impacted the prices of Biodiesel initially, which later started relaxing in the second half of this quarter, in effect of improved stock availability and comparatively cheaper imports of raw materials. Therefore, a considerable decline in price of Biodiesel was observed within the quarter, with prices setting at USD 1290/MT during June in USA.
Asia
In the Asian market, prices of Biodiesel rose effectively throughout the quarter, backed by soaring feedstock palm oil values. In India, imported palm oil reached multiyear high, which affected the prices of most of the downstream products in the country including Biodiesel. India and China, worlds largest importer of vegetable oil received palm and vegetable oil on record high prices due to critical shortage in the global market. However, in the Indian market demand remained low, under the second wave horrifying pandemic. Therefore, a steep inclination in prices of Biodiesel was observed in overall APAC region under international pressure and reached USD 900/MT in India during June 2021.
Europe
Despite of dull demand fundamentals, prices of Biodiesel shot up across Europe, backed by critical global shortage of feedstock palm and rapeseed oil. As major economies were still recovering from the pandemic, demand was observed lower than pre-pandemic level during this time period. However, prices of rapeseed oil rose every week across the region, which continued to affect the prices of downstream products including Biodiesel. Therefore, an effective rise in prices of Biodiesel was observed across Europe during Q2 2021.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
Asia
Demand for Biodiesel was very high in the APAC region during Q1 2021. Scarcity of Rapeseeds pushed up the prices of Biodiesel in the global market, especially in Indonesia where the prices rose due to high export demand from other Asian countries. China claimed high demand for Rapeseed and hence Europe-China trade was marked mountainous. Meanwhile in India, Aemetis has announced that its universal biofuels subsidiary/plant in Andhra Pradesh, will soon distribute Biodiesel to Indian public transport buses.
North America
USA experienced high demand for Biodiesel for blending in gasoline during Q1 2021. Meanwhile, the government of USA announced the price hike in RIN (Renewable Identification Number) credits which are given to those engaged in gasoline manufacturing with apt Biodiesel blending. Rest of the manufacturers who don’t blend Biodiesel in gasoline would have to buy these credits, and this will propel the demand for Biodiesel in the coming months. This announcement enhanced the market sentiments and key players anticipated to seek huge spike in demand for Biodiesel across the region, that will force small manufacturers to increase their production.
Europe
In Europe, Rapeseed prices in Germany surged as an effect of lower supply levels heard during January. The sales of Biodiesel remained low during January despite moderate product availability. Later in March, Biodiesel sales spiked up, but the inventories remained at low levels, which supported the price of feedstock vegetable oils and Rapeseeds. In addition, the European export demand for rapeseeds from several Asian countries was high that forced its prices to remain high.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
Asia
The producers of Biodiesel in the southeast Asian countries were heard releasing sufficient volumes to cater to the increased overseas and domestic demand. The outbreak of Covid-19 impacted the supply of used cooking oil in China, which is the country’s main and primary biodiesel feedstock. As per our Q3 estimates, the regional demand stood low, but the production has increased on the back of robust demand from the European Union. With around 42 biodiesel plants projected to start operations by the end of 2020, the sentiments are turning bullish as the year-end approaches. In Indonesia, prevailing concerns due to government's inability to keep pace up with the biodiesel blending program, widened the price gap between gasoil and palm oil.
North America
Biodiesel producers in the US ramped up production rates seeing favorable gains during the peak demand season in summers. The third quarter reported marked increased in the production of Biodiesel in the US, as the demand was supported by a mandate on consumption and buoyant fuel demand for the conveyance of goods by the heavy vehicles. USDA data shows that US exported Biodiesel to seven countries with Canada as the top destination with volume reaching 56904 metric tons in September.
Europe
The supply of biodiesel started picking up in Europe starting July 2020, with a strong rise in the consumption patterns. Lack of imports from Asia and Argentina, led to shortage in supply of FAME (Fatty Acid Methyl Ester) in September 2020. At the end of Q3, the supply of rapeseed-based biodiesel remained enough. Due to its summer blend properties, the demand for FAME 0 remained robust across Europe. In addition, UCOME (Used Cooking Oil Methyl Ester) was experiencing better demand than other biodiesel grades after its demand faded by the end of Q3.
