For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. Biodiesel market witnessed fluctuating trends driven by shifting policy landscapes, seasonal demand variations, and supply constraints. The quarter opened with stable prices, supported by steady imports from Europe and consistent demand from the transportation sector. However, by the last week of January, prices declined to USD 1500/MT UCO CFR Houston, influenced by uncertainty around the 45Z tax credit and potential repeal of policy support measures like H.R. 549. Producers ramped up output to capitalize on existing incentives, leading to oversupply and bearish sentiment.
As the quarter progressed, February continued to reflect a weak market tone. Cold weather and low diesel prices reduced blending activity, while supply growth was limited due to delayed federal funding for production expansions. Although there were brief periods of price stabilization driven by feedstock cost fluctuations and logistical issues, overall demand remained subdued. The expiration of the Blenders Tax Credit further impacted margins and domestic production.
The end of the quarter marked a recovery phase in March. Supply constraints from paused domestic operations and rising diesel prices, coupled with steady imports and increasing seasonal demand, supported a bullish trend. Policy discussions around RFS mandates and clean fuel incentives also contributed to positive market sentiment. Prices rebounded steadily, closing the quarter on a stronger note.
APAC
In Q1 2025 APAC region, Indonesia’s biodiesel market displayed a mixed price trend shaped by domestic policies, feedstock dynamics, and global demand patterns. The quarter began with relative price stability due to balanced supply-demand dynamics, supported by abundant availability of used cooking oil (UCO) and the anticipation surrounding the B40 blending mandate. This policy aimed to boost domestic consumption of biodiesel and reduce reliance on imported diesel.
During the last week of January, biodiesel prices stood stable at USD 1110/MT Ex-Tanjung Priok, following the resumption of government subsidies via the Palm Oil Fund Agency. These subsidies played a vital role in offsetting production costs and maintaining market equilibrium.
As the quarter progressed, prices showed a modest increase amid rising crude palm oil (CPO) prices, weather-related supply disruptions, and optimism around the full implementation of B40. However, global trade challenges, sluggish export demand, and low crude oil prices limited upward momentum.
Towards the end of the quarter, the market turned bearish as palm oil inventories increased and feedstock prices dropped, leading to reduced production costs. Biodiesel prices declined by quarter-end. Despite strong domestic mandates, weak global demand and cost-effective feedstocks contributed to a softening price trajectory, marking a cautious end to Q1 2025.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the German biodiesel market witnessed a dynamic price trend shaped by regulatory shifts, fluctuating demand, and evolving supply conditions. The quarter began with stable prices as domestic production ramped up in response to anti-dumping duties on Chinese imports, ensuring a balanced market. However, by the last week of January, prices had declined to USD 1300/MT FD Hamburg, driven by weakened demand, particularly in marine and road transport sectors. The introduction of Fuel EU Maritime regulations, though intended to support biofuel adoption, led to a shift in sourcing to non-European markets due to compliance flexibility, further weakening local demand.
In February, the market remained bearish. Trade tensions with the U.S. and uncertainty surrounding biofuel regulations and feedstock availability continued to suppress both production and pricing. Although long-term policy support remained intact, the short-term market response was cautious.
March marked a turning point, with biodiesel prices recovering due to surging costs of waste-based feedstocks like used cooking oil and tightening supply. Seasonal demand and regulatory optimism surrounding CO2-neutral fuels contributed to a bullish market outlook. Overall, Q1 2025 reflected a volatile yet resilient biodiesel market in Germany, with prospects of further growth hinging on policy clarity and feedstock stability.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the North American market during the fourth quarter of 2024, Biodiesel prices displayed a notable upward trend despite varying market conditions. Throughout the quarter, there was a consistent increase in prices, with a quarter-on-quarter rise of 4%, reflecting a robust and resilient market. The primary drivers for this increase were the rising production costs, notably due to higher feedstock prices such as soybean oil, and the continuing supply chain disruptions that limited availability. Additionally, the regulatory environment, with evolving policies such as the Biodiesel Tax Credit Extension Act, played a pivotal role in influencing market dynamics.
Despite facing some uncertainty regarding future tax incentives and the continuation of biofuel mandates, the demand for Biodiesel remained strong. The U.S. market benefited from increasing consumer and industry interest in renewable fuels, fuelled by growing environmental awareness and the government’s renewable energy targets. In particular, demand from the transportation and fuel sector continued to expand, as regulatory policies, including the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), continued to enforce the blending of biodiesel into transportation fuels. This helped to support stable demand, even amid fluctuations in feedstock availability.
The market sentiment remained generally bullish, driven by ongoing production difficulties, regulatory uncertainties, and higher feedstock prices. These factors combined to push prices upward, despite a relatively bearish outlook from some downstream sectors. As a result, Biodiesel prices continued to grow steadily in the quarter, reflecting the interconnected nature of regulatory support, feedstock costs, and market demand.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the APAC biodiesel market exhibited a mix of price fluctuations and periods of stability. The APAC region witnessed a rise in prices in Q4 of 2024 especially South Korea reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7%. The market's trajectory was influenced by varying demand and supply dynamics, changes in feedstock costs, and policy measures. October began with marginal price declines, driven by oversupply and weakening demand, but the market rebounded mid-month with rising costs of feedstocks like palm oil and increased production activity. By the end of October, prices stabilized due to conflicting pressures of soaring feedstock prices and robust production, despite tepid demand. In November, biodiesel prices displayed mixed trends, initially gaining traction due to heightened feedstock costs, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia, and stronger demand from the downstream transport sector. However, the latter half of the month saw price declines as upstream palm oil costs eased, leading to reduced production costs. Regulatory interventions, such as extended fuel tax cuts by the South Korean government, further contributed to price stabilization. December was characterized by relative stability interspersed with slight downward adjustments. Consistent demand from the transportation and fuel sectors balanced the increasing preference for ethanol-based biofuels. Weak export activity, along with steady production levels, ensured prices remained largely unchanged. Overall, the fourth quarter highlighted the importance of feedstock availability, global energy trends, and government policies in shaping market dynamics. Despite fluctuations, the market's upward trajectory underscores growing interest in renewable fuels and the sustained efforts to decarbonize South Korea’s energy landscape.
Europe
The European biodiesel market in Q4 2024 saw mixed trends, with prices rising by 6% quarter-on-quarter, especially in Germany driven by strong demand, regulatory changes, and tight supply conditions. Prices initially stabilized in October before increasing steadily in November, peaking in mid-December, and stabilizing again by the end of the year due to reduced demand during the holiday season. Supply remained constrained throughout the quarter, with challenges such as low production margins and limited feedstock availability.
Rapeseed oil imports rose by 17% in October, alleviating some supply issues, but the availability of used cooking oil (UCO) declined, further tightening feedstock supply. Demand remained strong, particularly from Germany, which increased its use of higher biodiesel blends in transportation. Exports to the USA also surged, reflecting growing demand for renewable fuels. Regulatory changes, such as Germany's revision of its greenhouse gas savings quota, supported higher biodiesel consumption.
The halt of GHG quota ticket rollovers for 2025-2026 created a bullish market sentiment. Despite these positive factors, Germany’s industrial production contracted by 1% in November, showing some broader economic challenges. Looking ahead to 2025, the biodiesel market is poised for growth, driven by new regulations, higher blending mandates, and renewable energy incentives, although geopolitical and economic uncertainties will continue to influence market dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Biodiesel market in North America experienced several key trends. The market continued to grow, driven by increasing demand for renewable energy sources and government support for biodiesel production. Prices remained relatively stable, supported by the availability of feedstocks such as soybean oil, palm oil, and animal fats. The cost-effective production helped maintain stable prices despite international market tensions. The demand for biodiesel was primarily driven by the transportation sector, which seeks to reduce carbon emissions and comply with stringent emission regulations. The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and Canada’s Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) mandate the use of renewable fuels, driving the demand for biodiesel. The supply chain remained robust, with a consistent and reliable supply of feedstocks.
The extensive cultivation of oilseed crops in North America supports large-scale biodiesel manufacturing. There was an increased focus on environmental regulations, with governments and organizations pushing for the adoption of renewable energy sources to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Biodiesel’s lower carbon footprint compared to conventional diesel aligns with national and state-level climate goals. The market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by ongoing demand from the transportation sector and government incentives.
The quarter concluded with Biodiesel UCO CFR Houston prices at USD 1495/MT. The prices saw an increase of 1% from the previous quarter of 2024.However, challenges such as high operating costs and the need for more feedstock availability may impact the market's growth.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 has been marked by a discernible upward trajectory in Biodiesel prices within the APAC region, driven primarily by fluctuating feedstock costs, supply chain disruptions, and rising demand for renewable energy sources. A key factor influencing market prices has been the volatility in palm oil prices, a critical feedstock for Biodiesel production. This volatility, coupled with logistical challenges and increased transportation costs, has contributed to the upward pressure on prices. Additionally, the burgeoning demand for cleaner energy alternatives, driven by stringent environmental regulations and the global shift towards sustainability, has further buoyed prices.
Focusing exclusively on China, which has experienced the most significant price fluctuations, the Biodiesel market showcased a dynamic pricing environment. Seasonality played a pivotal role, with increased energy consumption during peak periods amplifying demand. Despite a 0% change from the same quarter last year, prices saw a -1% decrease from the previous quarter of 2024. However, the stark contrast between the first and second halves of the quarter, marked by a 4% price increase, underscores the volatility and resilience of the market. The quarter concluded with Biodiesel UCO FOB Qingdao prices at USD 1175/MT, reflecting a positive pricing environment despite inherent challenges. This consistent upward trend indicates a market grappling with supply-demand imbalances while navigating the complexities of a transitioning energy landscape.
Europe
The third quarter of 2024 has been characterized by a significant upward trend in Biodiesel prices in the Europe Region. Various factors have influenced these price increases, including a rise in feedstock costs, stable demand from the transportation sector, and government policies promoting renewable energy sources. These factors have led to a bullish market sentiment, with prices steadily rising throughout the quarter. The Netherlands in particular, has experienced the most significant price changes, with prices increasing by 9% compared to the previous quarter. Despite a notable -45% decrease from the same quarter last year, the current quarter has seen a positive 5% price change from the first half to the second half. The quarter-ending price of USD 1200/MT of Biodiesel Ucome FOB Rotterdam in the Netherlands reflects the overall increasing pricing environment in the region, indicating a stable and upward trajectory in Biodiesel prices.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American biodiesel market experienced significant price fluctuations due to several adverse factors. Key drivers included reduced feedstock costs, particularly for soybean and palm oil, and decreased demand from sectors like heating oil and industrial lubricants. The economic recession in North America further exacerbated the situation, leading to lower consumer spending and reduced industrial activity.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions and disrupted supply chains, add to market strains and contribute to a bearish pricing environment in the mid-quarter. In the US, the most notable price changes occurred. Biodiesel prices dropped notably year-over-year and from the previous quarter, reflecting a persistent negative trend. Seasonal factors, such as warmer temperatures reducing heating demand, also played a role in the decline.
Prices decreased again in the first half of the quarter compared to the second half, indicating a steady downward trajectory. The continued decline highlights a fluctuating pricing environment driven by weak demand, oversupply, and broader economic challenges. Overall, Q2 2024 was marked by a downward shift in biodiesel pricing in North America, particularly in the US, due to complex market dynamics and external pressures.
APAC
In the second quarter of 2024, the biodiesel market in the Asian region faced a notable downturn, driven by reduced downstream demand, falling palm oil prices, and competition from alternative oils. Oversupply and high inventory levels further pressured prices, while geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions disrupted market dynamics. In South Korea, a key producer in the Asian region, the biodiesel prices experienced the most significant changes. Seasonal factors and supply-demand imbalances contributed to a sustained decrease in prices. The decline in upstream palm oil prices has directly impacted biodiesel costs. Compared to the same quarter of last year, biodiesel prices have dropped by 37%, reflecting the market's bearish sentiment. Prices decreased by 27% from the previous quarter by 11% between the first and second halves of Q2, indicating a persistent downward trend. The market has been characterized by oversupply, reduced demand, and competitive pressures, highlighting the volatility and challenges in the APAC biodiesel sector, with South Korea showing the most pronounced fluctuations.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European biodiesel prices fluctuated due to several adverse factors. Key drivers included reduced feedstock costs, especially for rapeseed oil, and lower demand from sectors like heating oil and industrial lubricants. The economic recession across Europe worsened the situation, leading to decreased consumer spending and industrial activity. Geopolitical tensions and European sanctions on Asian exporters also disrupted supply chains, straining the market further and contributing to a bearish pricing environment. Germany experienced the most pronounced price changes in the region. Biodiesel prices dropped by 48% year-over-year and fell by 8% from the previous quarter, reflecting a persistent negative trend. Seasonal factors, such as warmer temperatures reducing heating demand, also contributed to the decline. The first half of the quarter saw a 1% drop compared to the second half, indicating a steady downward trajectory. The continued decline underscores a fluctuation in pricing environment driven by weak demand, oversupply, and broader economic challenges. Overall, Q2 2024 was marked by a shift in pricing trend for biodiesel in Europe, particularly in Germany, due to complex market dynamics and external pressures.
