For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Price Index of Biodiesel rose by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, closing at USD 1550/MT UCO CFR Houston by late June. Fluctuated mid-quarter with stable gains in May and June.
• Why did the Price Index change in July 2025? Expected to stay firm or edge up, supported by high soybean oil prices and regulatory clarity from the EPA.
• Biodiesel Spot Price: Held within USD 1520–1550/MT range. June’s 1.31% rise driven by bullish feedstock and EPA volume targets.
• Biodiesel Forecast: Short-term outlook remains firm due to strong blending mandates and forward-buying triggered by rising RINs.
• Biodiesel Production Cost Trend: Climbed in Q2 as soybean oil surged >6% mid-June. Domestic feedstock costs rose due to tighter EPA policies on imports and credits.
• Biodiesel Demand Outlook was strong, aided by increase in distillate fuel use. Blending mandates and summer driving sustained stable uptake.
• Credit Market Impact: D4 RINs rose from 109¢ to 132¢ by June. LCFS credits remained flat, limiting additional pricing pressure.
• Policy Influence: EPA’s proposed 2026–2027 blending targets boosted confidence. Uncertainty over SREs led to cautious but forward-leaning procurement.
• Import Substitution: EPA curbs on imported fuel credits redirected demand to domestic biodiesel, increasing market share for U.S. producers.
• No major disruptions. Strong U.S. dollar offered mild relief on imports, but domestic dynamics remained dominant.
APAC
• Price Index declined by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter, with Biodiesel Spot Price assessed at USD 1150/MT UCO FOB Qingdao in June 2025. Market conditions fluctuated between bearish and mildly bullish trends due to shifting export patterns, feedstock dynamics, and evolving policy drivers.
• Market activity remained sluggish as UCO trading was limited, with participants unwilling to revise expectations. Export competitiveness weakened due to pressure from Southeast Asian suppliers.
• Export disruptions intensified after key Western markets imposed high tariffs, leading to rerouting of UCO and biodiesel cargoes to alternative Asian destinations. This created short-term oversupply and strained producer margins.
• Policy shifts, including the removal of tax incentives and new SAF demand, encouraged a pivot toward domestic consumption, but capacity utilization remained low.
• A brief improvement in buying interest was observed due to tightening UCO availability and logistical restocking, though this support was temporary.
• Demand from transportation and industrial sectors stayed soft, weighed down by high inventories, limited blending mandates, and weak export offtake.
• Southeast Asian UCOME imports-maintained pressure on domestic producers, further constraining pricing power and delaying recovery in production economics.
• Overall, the Biodiesel Demand Outlook remained muted, with producers focusing on realigning supply chains toward SAF and marine fuels while awaiting policy clarity and stronger downstream uptake.
• The Biodiesel Forecast suggests a slow recovery path, contingent on successful market diversification and improved domestic absorption.
• The Biodiesel Production Cost Trend stayed mostly neutral, supported by steady UCO input prices but challenged by low operating rates and compressed margins.
Europe
• The Biodiesel Price Index increased by +3.3% quarter-on-quarter driven by fluctuating supply-demand fundamentals, seasonal blending shifts, and rising gasoil benchmarks.
• The Biodiesel Price Index softened in early Q2 as UCOME premiums narrowed due to improved feedstock availability and reduced blending activity.
• Market sentiment turned stable by late April and May, supported by consistent demand from transport and industrial sectors under RED II compliance.
• The Biodiesel Demand Outlook in May remained cautiously optimistic, backed by sustainability-linked procurement, though trading was moderate amid logistical constraints.
• In June, the Price Index first dipped on weak transport fuel demand and oversupply, then rebounded as geopolitical tensions lifted gasoil prices, tightening biodiesel availability.
• Biodiesel Production Cost Trend reflected margin pressures from high fossil fuel costs and declining replacement values, challenging producers despite firm spot demand.
• The Biodiesel Forecast for July suggests potential upside from seasonal demand and geopolitical volatility, though gains may be capped by soft certificate markets and flat compliance-driven support.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. Biodiesel market witnessed fluctuating trends driven by shifting policy landscapes, seasonal demand variations, and supply constraints. The quarter opened with stable prices, supported by steady imports from Europe and consistent demand from the transportation sector. However, by the last week of January, prices declined to USD 1500/MT UCO CFR Houston, influenced by uncertainty around the 45Z tax credit and potential repeal of policy support measures like H.R. 549. Producers ramped up output to capitalize on existing incentives, leading to oversupply and bearish sentiment.
As the quarter progressed, February continued to reflect a weak market tone. Cold weather and low diesel prices reduced blending activity, while supply growth was limited due to delayed federal funding for production expansions. Although there were brief periods of price stabilization driven by feedstock cost fluctuations and logistical issues, overall demand remained subdued. The expiration of the Blenders Tax Credit further impacted margins and domestic production.
The end of the quarter marked a recovery phase in March. Supply constraints from paused domestic operations and rising diesel prices, coupled with steady imports and increasing seasonal demand, supported a bullish trend. Policy discussions around RFS mandates and clean fuel incentives also contributed to positive market sentiment. Prices rebounded steadily, closing the quarter on a stronger note.
APAC
In Q1 2025 APAC region, Indonesia’s biodiesel market displayed a mixed price trend shaped by domestic policies, feedstock dynamics, and global demand patterns. The quarter began with relative price stability due to balanced supply-demand dynamics, supported by abundant availability of used cooking oil (UCO) and the anticipation surrounding the B40 blending mandate. This policy aimed to boost domestic consumption of biodiesel and reduce reliance on imported diesel.
During the last week of January, biodiesel prices stood stable at USD 1110/MT Ex-Tanjung Priok, following the resumption of government subsidies via the Palm Oil Fund Agency. These subsidies played a vital role in offsetting production costs and maintaining market equilibrium.
As the quarter progressed, prices showed a modest increase amid rising crude palm oil (CPO) prices, weather-related supply disruptions, and optimism around the full implementation of B40. However, global trade challenges, sluggish export demand, and low crude oil prices limited upward momentum.
Towards the end of the quarter, the market turned bearish as palm oil inventories increased and feedstock prices dropped, leading to reduced production costs. Biodiesel prices declined by quarter-end. Despite strong domestic mandates, weak global demand and cost-effective feedstocks contributed to a softening price trajectory, marking a cautious end to Q1 2025.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the German biodiesel market witnessed a dynamic price trend shaped by regulatory shifts, fluctuating demand, and evolving supply conditions. The quarter began with stable prices as domestic production ramped up in response to anti-dumping duties on Chinese imports, ensuring a balanced market. However, by the last week of January, prices had declined to USD 1300/MT FD Hamburg, driven by weakened demand, particularly in marine and road transport sectors. The introduction of Fuel EU Maritime regulations, though intended to support biofuel adoption, led to a shift in sourcing to non-European markets due to compliance flexibility, further weakening local demand.
In February, the market remained bearish. Trade tensions with the U.S. and uncertainty surrounding biofuel regulations and feedstock availability continued to suppress both production and pricing. Although long-term policy support remained intact, the short-term market response was cautious.
March marked a turning point, with biodiesel prices recovering due to surging costs of waste-based feedstocks like used cooking oil and tightening supply. Seasonal demand and regulatory optimism surrounding CO2-neutral fuels contributed to a bullish market outlook. Overall, Q1 2025 reflected a volatile yet resilient biodiesel market in Germany, with prospects of further growth hinging on policy clarity and feedstock stability.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the North American market during the fourth quarter of 2024, Biodiesel prices displayed a notable upward trend despite varying market conditions. Throughout the quarter, there was a consistent increase in prices, with a quarter-on-quarter rise of 4%, reflecting a robust and resilient market. The primary drivers for this increase were the rising production costs, notably due to higher feedstock prices such as soybean oil, and the continuing supply chain disruptions that limited availability. Additionally, the regulatory environment, with evolving policies such as the Biodiesel Tax Credit Extension Act, played a pivotal role in influencing market dynamics.
Despite facing some uncertainty regarding future tax incentives and the continuation of biofuel mandates, the demand for Biodiesel remained strong. The U.S. market benefited from increasing consumer and industry interest in renewable fuels, fuelled by growing environmental awareness and the government’s renewable energy targets. In particular, demand from the transportation and fuel sector continued to expand, as regulatory policies, including the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), continued to enforce the blending of biodiesel into transportation fuels. This helped to support stable demand, even amid fluctuations in feedstock availability.
The market sentiment remained generally bullish, driven by ongoing production difficulties, regulatory uncertainties, and higher feedstock prices. These factors combined to push prices upward, despite a relatively bearish outlook from some downstream sectors. As a result, Biodiesel prices continued to grow steadily in the quarter, reflecting the interconnected nature of regulatory support, feedstock costs, and market demand.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the APAC biodiesel market exhibited a mix of price fluctuations and periods of stability. The APAC region witnessed a rise in prices in Q4 of 2024 especially South Korea reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7%. The market's trajectory was influenced by varying demand and supply dynamics, changes in feedstock costs, and policy measures. October began with marginal price declines, driven by oversupply and weakening demand, but the market rebounded mid-month with rising costs of feedstocks like palm oil and increased production activity. By the end of October, prices stabilized due to conflicting pressures of soaring feedstock prices and robust production, despite tepid demand. In November, biodiesel prices displayed mixed trends, initially gaining traction due to heightened feedstock costs, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia, and stronger demand from the downstream transport sector. However, the latter half of the month saw price declines as upstream palm oil costs eased, leading to reduced production costs. Regulatory interventions, such as extended fuel tax cuts by the South Korean government, further contributed to price stabilization. December was characterized by relative stability interspersed with slight downward adjustments. Consistent demand from the transportation and fuel sectors balanced the increasing preference for ethanol-based biofuels. Weak export activity, along with steady production levels, ensured prices remained largely unchanged. Overall, the fourth quarter highlighted the importance of feedstock availability, global energy trends, and government policies in shaping market dynamics. Despite fluctuations, the market's upward trajectory underscores growing interest in renewable fuels and the sustained efforts to decarbonize South Korea’s energy landscape.
Europe
The European biodiesel market in Q4 2024 saw mixed trends, with prices rising by 6% quarter-on-quarter, especially in Germany driven by strong demand, regulatory changes, and tight supply conditions. Prices initially stabilized in October before increasing steadily in November, peaking in mid-December, and stabilizing again by the end of the year due to reduced demand during the holiday season. Supply remained constrained throughout the quarter, with challenges such as low production margins and limited feedstock availability.
Rapeseed oil imports rose by 17% in October, alleviating some supply issues, but the availability of used cooking oil (UCO) declined, further tightening feedstock supply. Demand remained strong, particularly from Germany, which increased its use of higher biodiesel blends in transportation. Exports to the USA also surged, reflecting growing demand for renewable fuels. Regulatory changes, such as Germany's revision of its greenhouse gas savings quota, supported higher biodiesel consumption.
The halt of GHG quota ticket rollovers for 2025-2026 created a bullish market sentiment. Despite these positive factors, Germany’s industrial production contracted by 1% in November, showing some broader economic challenges. Looking ahead to 2025, the biodiesel market is poised for growth, driven by new regulations, higher blending mandates, and renewable energy incentives, although geopolitical and economic uncertainties will continue to influence market dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Biodiesel market in North America experienced several key trends. The market continued to grow, driven by increasing demand for renewable energy sources and government support for biodiesel production. Prices remained relatively stable, supported by the availability of feedstocks such as soybean oil, palm oil, and animal fats. The cost-effective production helped maintain stable prices despite international market tensions. The demand for biodiesel was primarily driven by the transportation sector, which seeks to reduce carbon emissions and comply with stringent emission regulations. The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and Canada’s Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) mandate the use of renewable fuels, driving the demand for biodiesel. The supply chain remained robust, with a consistent and reliable supply of feedstocks.
The extensive cultivation of oilseed crops in North America supports large-scale biodiesel manufacturing. There was an increased focus on environmental regulations, with governments and organizations pushing for the adoption of renewable energy sources to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Biodiesel’s lower carbon footprint compared to conventional diesel aligns with national and state-level climate goals. The market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by ongoing demand from the transportation sector and government incentives.
The quarter concluded with Biodiesel UCO CFR Houston prices at USD 1495/MT. The prices saw an increase of 1% from the previous quarter of 2024.However, challenges such as high operating costs and the need for more feedstock availability may impact the market's growth.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 has been marked by a discernible upward trajectory in Biodiesel prices within the APAC region, driven primarily by fluctuating feedstock costs, supply chain disruptions, and rising demand for renewable energy sources. A key factor influencing market prices has been the volatility in palm oil prices, a critical feedstock for Biodiesel production. This volatility, coupled with logistical challenges and increased transportation costs, has contributed to the upward pressure on prices. Additionally, the burgeoning demand for cleaner energy alternatives, driven by stringent environmental regulations and the global shift towards sustainability, has further buoyed prices.
Focusing exclusively on China, which has experienced the most significant price fluctuations, the Biodiesel market showcased a dynamic pricing environment. Seasonality played a pivotal role, with increased energy consumption during peak periods amplifying demand. Despite a 0% change from the same quarter last year, prices saw a -1% decrease from the previous quarter of 2024. However, the stark contrast between the first and second halves of the quarter, marked by a 4% price increase, underscores the volatility and resilience of the market. The quarter concluded with Biodiesel UCO FOB Qingdao prices at USD 1175/MT, reflecting a positive pricing environment despite inherent challenges. This consistent upward trend indicates a market grappling with supply-demand imbalances while navigating the complexities of a transitioning energy landscape.
Europe
The third quarter of 2024 has been characterized by a significant upward trend in Biodiesel prices in the Europe Region. Various factors have influenced these price increases, including a rise in feedstock costs, stable demand from the transportation sector, and government policies promoting renewable energy sources. These factors have led to a bullish market sentiment, with prices steadily rising throughout the quarter. The Netherlands in particular, has experienced the most significant price changes, with prices increasing by 9% compared to the previous quarter. Despite a notable -45% decrease from the same quarter last year, the current quarter has seen a positive 5% price change from the first half to the second half. The quarter-ending price of USD 1200/MT of Biodiesel Ucome FOB Rotterdam in the Netherlands reflects the overall increasing pricing environment in the region, indicating a stable and upward trajectory in Biodiesel prices.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q1: What were the key factors driving the Biodiesel Price Index in Q2 2025?
A: The Biodiesel Price Index was influenced by alternating supply-demand shifts, tighter availability of waste-based feedstocks, seasonal blending requirements, and surging gasoil prices due to geopolitical tensions. However, subdued blending demand and stable certificate prices capped aggressive price gains.
Q2: Why did biodiesel prices fluctuate in Germany during Q2 2025?
A: Biodiesel prices in the USA fluctuated during Q2 2025 due to a combination of supply stability, shifting feedstock costs, and evolving policy and credit market dynamics
Q3: How did regulatory policies impact the biodiesel market in Q2 2025?
A: Regulatory frameworks like the Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) continued to support demand for advanced biofuels such as UCOME, but short-term market momentum was muted due to uncertainty in policy implementation and limited certificate-driven buying.
Q4: What is the outlook for biodiesel demand in the near term?
A: The short-term Biodiesel Demand Outlook is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of higher consumption during the summer season. However, demand growth may remain constrained unless clearer policy signals or margin improvements emerge.
