For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the United States, the Butter Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter, driven by increased producer input costs and general inflation in Q3 2025.
• Butter production costs increased in Q3 2025, influenced by rising general input material costs and persistent tariff-related expenses.
• The Butter demand outlook was supported by strong retail sales (5.42% YoY in September 2025) and a low unemployment rate (4.3% in September 2025).
• However, declining consumer confidence (94.2 in September 2025) and slow discretionary spending growth tempered overall Butter demand.
• Energy feedstock costs for Butter production saw natural gas prices fluctuate, with a year-over-year increase in September 2025.
• Manufacturing inventories generally tightened in Q3 2025, reflecting some supply adjustments despite slow industrial production growth.
• Overall industrial production increased marginally by 0.1% year-over-year in September 2025, indicating a less robust economic environment.
• Trade flows were impacted by tariffs, which continued to exert upward pressure on input costs for Butter production in Q3 2025.
Why did the price of Butter change in September 2025 in North America?
• Producer input costs rose 2.6% year-over-year in August 2025, pressuring Butter prices upward.
• General inflation, with CPI up 3.0% year-over-year in September 2025, contributed to higher Butter prices.
• Strong retail sales (5.42% YoY in September 2025) supported Butter demand, counteracting bearish consumer confidence.
APAC
• In China, the Butter Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by declining production costs and cautious consumer spending.
• Butter production costs decreased, driven by a -2.3% year-over-year decline in the Producer Price Index during September 2025.
• The Butter demand outlook was mixed, with retail sales increasing 3.0% year-over-year in September 2025, indicating some consumer strength.
• Industrial demand for Butter saw growth, supported by a 6.5% year-over-year rise in industrial production during September 2025.
• However, consumer confidence remained low at 89.6 in September 2025, suggesting reduced discretionary spending on food items like Butter.
• The Manufacturing Index contracted in September 2025, indicating weaker overall industrial activity impacting ingredient demand.
• A -0.3% year-over-year decrease in the Consumer Price Index in September 2025 reflected general deflationary pressures and weak consumer demand.
• The unemployment rate stood at 5.2% in September 2025, contributing to reduced consumer purchasing power for premium food products.
Why did the price of Butter change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Lower input costs, evidenced by a -2.3% year-over-year Producer Price Index decline in September 2025, reduced production expenses.
• Weak consumer demand, indicated by a -0.3% year-over-year Consumer Price Index decrease and low consumer confidence in September 2025, pressured prices.
• Contracting Manufacturing Index in September 2025 suggested weaker industrial activity, despite positive industrial production growth.
Europe
• In Germany, the Butter Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, due to intensified imports and building inventories.
• Butter production costs rose in Q3 2025, driven by elevated milk feedstock and increasing energy and transportation expenses.
• The Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, and industrial production declined by 1.0% in September 2025, impacting demand.
• Weakened consumer sentiment in August-September 2025 and a 6.3% unemployment rate constrained consumer spending.
• Retail sales increased modestly by 0.2% in September 2025, reflecting stable but not robust household butter demand.
• Intensified butter imports into Europe in Q3 2025 created sales challenges for German domestic producers.
• The Butter Price Forecast suggests continued stability to slight downward pressure due to market oversupply.
• Demand for natural and organic butter products strengthened in Q3 2025, offering a niche growth area.
Why did the price of Butter change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Intensified butter imports into Europe created sales challenges for domestic producers in Q3 2025.
• Building EU butter stocks from Q2 2025 contributed to oversupply, impacting Q3 market dynamics.
• Weakened consumer sentiment and declining industrial production in September 2025 dampened overall demand.
