For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The Butyl Rubber market in the US exhibited mixed sentiments throughout Q1 2025, shaped by a dynamic interplay of various market forces. In January, the market remained stable as bullish factors such as rising feedstock costs and slight improvements in the construction sector were counterbalanced by weak automotive demand and severe disruptions caused by a polar vortex. However, ample inventory levels acted as a buffer, ensuring consistent supply and preventing any major fluctuations.
February witnessed a shift to bullish sentiment, driven largely by a notable revival in the automotive sector and heightened trading activity fueled by looming trade tensions. Market participants moved proactively to secure supplies ahead of anticipated tariff implications, leading to an uptick in demand and reinforcing upward pricing momentum.
In contrast, March marked a return to bearish sentiment. Despite continued strength in the construction sector, the market was weighed down by reduced production costs and sufficient stock availability across industries, which dampened procurement activity. Improved logistics and a steady supply chain further removed any pressure on prices, prompting suppliers to lower quotations in response to limited fresh inquiries. Overall, the quarter was characterized by fluctuating drivers that shaped a complex market landscape, with sentiment evolving month-by-month in response to changing supply-demand dynamics and external economic factors.
APAC
The Butyl Rubber market in the APAC region experienced mixed sentiments throughout Q1 2025, shaped by fluctuating demand dynamics, shifting production costs, and changing trading behavior. In January, the market remained stable as bullish factors such as increased feedstock costs, and pre-holiday inventory buildup were offset by weak demand from the automotive and construction sectors. While trading activity surged in the first half of the month, it slowed considerably amid the upcoming Lunar New Year celebration in China, contributing to a neutral market tone. February ushered in a bullish sentiment, despite softer demand and declining production costs. Suppliers held firm on quotations, supported by limited availability of spot supplies and increased post-holiday trading activity. This disciplined pricing strategy sustained positive sentiment even as key downstream industries underperformed. However, March marked a reversal, with the market turning bearish due to declining feedstock costs, subdued demand across major sectors, and sufficient inventory levels. Although the automotive and construction sectors showed some signs of recovery, the momentum was not strong enough to lift the market. Suppliers responded by scaling back production and adjusting prices to align with soft demand. These evolving factors resulted in a quarter defined by alternating stability, bullishness, and eventual bearishness in market sentiment.
Europe
The Butyl Rubber market in the European nation displayed mixed sentiments throughout Q1 2025, shaped by varying economic pressures, demand fluctuations, and shifting production costs. In January, the Russian market maintained stability despite rising feedstock costs, as the economic environment remained constrained by persistently high interest rates. These borrowing costs limited investment and slowed activities across key downstream sectors like automotive and construction, curbing demand and encouraging cautious purchasing behavior. Inventory levels remained sufficient, and market participants held quotations steady in response to weak economic signals. February, however, witnessed a notable shift in sentiment as increased demand from Asian markets, particularly after the Lunar New Year, drove a bullish trend. Export-oriented trading activities intensified, and manufacturers responded by raising quotations, even as domestic conditions—marked by subdued automotive performance and high interest rates—remained challenging. This external demand helped bolster confidence and stimulated production and sales activities. By March, the market reverted to a bearish tone as a decline in feedstock costs significantly reduced production expenses. Despite some improvement in the domestic automotive sector, demand recovery was not strong enough to counterbalance the cost-driven pressure. Stable supply and smooth trading further reinforced the soft sentiment, prompting suppliers to adjust quotations downward and contributing to weaker overall market sentiments.
MEA
The Butyl Rubber market in the Middle Eastern region exhibited mixed sentiments throughout Q1 2025, shaped by dynamic interactions between cost trends, domestic growth initiatives, and fluctuating global demand. In January, despite upward pressure from rising feedstock costs and steady domestic demand driven by Vision 2030 initiatives, the market remained stable. Ample inventory levels and reduced export activity, especially due to the Lunar New Year slowdown in Asia, prevented significant price shifts. Moving into February, the market adopted a bullish tone as both local and international demand surged. The revival of trading activities post-holidays, alongside expanding infrastructure and automotive projects under Vision 2030 and increasing exports, energized market sentiment. This prompted higher trading and production efforts, as suppliers adjusted quotations upward to reflect growing optimism. However, the momentum reversed in March, when a sharp decline in feedstock costs led to a bearish shift. Although the automotive sector continued to advance, its influence was overshadowed by declining production expenses and steady inventories. These cost-side pressures prompted suppliers to reduce quotations, with stable supply reinforcing a cautious outlook. The quarter concluded with the market in a state of equilibrium, reacting to competing forces of economic development and evolving cost structures.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American Butyl Rubber market faced persistent bearish sentiments, influenced by multiple economic and market factors. October began with declining production costs, driven by reduced feedstock Isobutylene prices, which contributed to lower market values. Despite a slight uptick in demand from the automotive sector, weaker performance in the tire sector and subdued downstream interest weighed heavily on overall demand. Market participants adopted a cautious stance due to uncertainties surrounding the upcoming presidential election, leading to reduced trading activity and scaled-back production.
In November, bearish trends continued as year-end destocking efforts dominated market dynamics. Ample inventories and reduced demand from the automotive and construction sectors limited new orders, while the victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election further impacted sentiment. Anticipation of policy changes, coupled with deregulation-focused strategies, contributed to lower commodity prices and reinforced the market's cautious tone.
By December, seasonal slowdowns in the construction sector and constrained automotive demand sustained the bearish outlook. Businesses remained hesitant to initiate new projects, awaiting clarity on potential policy shifts. Destocking activities, ample inventories, and reduced feedstock costs collectively highlighted the complex interplay of economic, political, and market factors shaping the US Butyl Rubber market.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in the APAC region faced bearish sentiments due to a mix of economic and industry-specific factors. In October, the market experienced a slight decline, driven by reduced production costs following lower feedstock Isobutylene prices and sufficient inventory levels that met demand. Easing congestion at major ports, including Qingdao, improved supply chain fluidity, further reinforcing the bearish outlook as supply pressures eased. Producers adjusted production rates to align with weak demand, maintaining stable logistics but limiting price movement. November witnessed a stable market, with mixed sentiments. While the downstream automotive sector showed improvement, demand from the tire and construction sectors remained subdued due to ample inventory levels. Reduced feedstock costs helped moderate any potential price increases, and domestic production and imports maintained steady supply, resulting in a restrained trading atmosphere. In December, the market exhibited a sharp decline, despite rising feedstock costs and improved automotive sector performance. Concerns over economic growth, trade policies, and potential US tariffs dampened market confidence, as did cautious behavior among participants. The pre-holiday rush and port congestion failed to drive prices upward due to subdued demand and sufficient inventories, highlighting the market’s continued bearish trend.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the European Butyl Rubber market experienced fluctuating sentiments influenced by supply-demand dynamics, economic conditions, and downstream sector performance. In October, the market showed bullish momentum as rising demand from both domestic and international markets, particularly India, offset declining production costs from lower feedstock Isobutylene prices. Insufficient inventories led producers to increase output, while strong trading activity, driven by new overseas orders, bolstered the market’s optimistic outlook. November sustained this upward trend despite broader economic challenges, including labor shortages, high inflation, and elevated interest rates, which created a challenging economic environment. Increased overseas demand supported market stability, while inventory levels remained inadequate to meet downstream requirements. However, economic pressures, including a record 21% interest rate, raised concerns about borrowing costs and business investment. In December, the market shifted to bearish sentiments. Despite rising production costs and improved performance in the automotive sector, limited new orders, year-end destocking activities, and cautious procurement by buyers suppressed demand. Employment and business confidence also declined, further contributing to the downturn. These factors highlight the complex interplay of supply shortages, economic uncertainties, and cautious market behavior in shaping the Butyl Rubber market’s dynamics in Russia.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in Saudi Arabia experienced fluctuating trends shaped by shifting demand, supply constraints, and downstream sector performance. In October and November, the market displayed bullish momentum due to strong demand from the Automotive and Construction sectors, supported by the ongoing Vision 2030 initiative and overseas interest. Supply chain disruptions, including Red Sea diversions, created a supply-demand imbalance, leading producers to increase output. Positive business sentiment and stable economic conditions further reinforced the upward trend, with companies ramping up procurement to meet growing demand. In December, the market shifted to bearish sentiments. Despite rising production costs and improvements in the Construction sector, year-end destocking activities and reduced new orders from domestic and international buyers suppressed demand. Efficient supply chain operations, characterized by faster delivery times and improved inventory management, further contributed to market stability but did not prevent the downward trend. Ample inventories and cautious procurement by buyers weighed on the market, reflecting a more efficient but subdued trading atmosphere. This period highlights the interplay of demand fluctuations, supply chain dynamics, and inventory management in shaping the market, with strong initial growth giving way to bearish sentiments toward year-end.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The Butyl Rubber pricing landscape in North America during Q3 2024 witnessed a significant uptrend, marked by increasing market prices driven by a confluence of factors. The market dynamics showcased bullishness despite the declining production cost of the commodity due to the decrease in the prices of the feedstock, Isobutylene. The heightened costs of the commodity, despite typical downward pressures from falling production expenses, were counterbalanced by robust demand from key industries, notably the automotive sector.
The surge in demand from downstream players led to a tightening supply situation, further propelling prices upwards. In the USA specifically, the market experienced the most substantial price changes, with a notable -3% decrease from the previous quarter. The correlation between increased demand and rising prices was evident throughout the quarter, reflecting a positive pricing environment.
Despite disruptions like the first Atlantic hurricane and cyberattacks affecting operations, the market remained resilient. The quarter concluded with Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 prices at USD 2150/MT DEL Texas, underscoring the overall bullish trend in pricing.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in the APAC region remained stable, with prices showing minimal fluctuations. Various factors influenced market prices during this quarter, including consistent demand from downstream sectors, and balanced supply levels. Notable disruptions occurred in the supply chain due to unforeseen events, such as severe weather conditions which briefly impacted market dynamics. However, overall, the market maintained its equilibrium, supported by steady demand from key industries. Singapore, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes in the region. Despite this, the market trend remained stable, reflecting a resilient pricing environment. Seasonal factors and correlation patterns played a crucial role in price stability, ensuring that the market maintained a positive sentiment throughout the quarter. The quarter-ending price for Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 FOB Jurong in Singapore stood at USD 2090/MT, indicating a consistent and stable pricing environment in the APAC region during Q3 2024.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in Europe experienced fluctuating pricing trends driven by several key factors. The overall sentiment was influenced by changes in production costs, overseas demand, and feedstock price fluctuations, particularly isobutylene. In July, prices witnessed an upward trend due to higher production costs and strong export demand, particularly from regions like China and India, despite weaker domestic demand. By August, the market sentiment turned bearish as production costs declined and global demand weakened, leading to oversupply and price softening. The improved domestic automotive sector in Europe mitigated some of the negative effects, but the overall market remained under pressure. In September, while local demand remained stable, sluggish global trade flows continued to impact prices negatively. Supply chain disruptions and inventory buildup led to discounted prices, as market players sought to stabilize pricing. Overall, Q3 2024 experienced a combination of bullish and bearish forces, with heightened volatility reflecting global economic conditions and feedstock price shifts.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Butyl Rubber market experienced a mixed trend, driven primarily by several key factors. During the first half of the second quarter, the Butyl Rubber market maintained its stability at a higher end. The stability can be attributed to the performance of the downstream sectors. The downstream Automotive sector experienced growth and the disputes in the Canadian Railways likely added pressure on US market players. However, the weak performance of the downstream construction sector lowered the upward trend of the commodity and hence, resulted in a stable market scenario. However, during the second half of the quarter, the Butyl Rubber market witnessed a steep decline in their trend. The most significant influencer was a marked decrease in demand from the Automotive and Construction sectors. This decline in demand was compounded by elevated inflation rates, which dampened consumer purchasing power and overall market confidence. Additionally, subdued spending on manufactured goods, as households became increasingly cautious with their expenditures, further exacerbated the situation.
In the USA, where the most substantial price changes occurred, the diminishing prices were starkly evident. Seasonality played a role, with typically lower off-season demand contributing to the downward trend. This was further intensified by a 6% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024 and a notable -9% difference between the first and second half of Q2. The correlation in price changes mirrored the broader economic indicators, reflecting a cautious market outlook amid rising costs and economic uncertainties.
Moreover, supply-side disruptions, such as potential strikes in the Canadian National Railways and fewer imports, pressured US producers to ramp up production, which, paradoxically, led to oversupply and further price reductions. Consequently, the quarter-ending price of Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 in the USA settled at USD 2050/MT.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in the APAC region experienced a notable increase in prices, driven primarily by heightened demand from downstream sectors, particularly automotive and tire industries. The resurgence in these sectors contributed significantly to the bullish market sentiment, further exacerbated by supply chain disruptions and port congestions across Asia. This quarter witnessed a significant rise in trading activities, as market players sought to capitalize on escalating demand. The introduction of new policies aimed at stimulating the automotive sector also played a pivotal role in propelling market prices. Focusing on China, which saw the most substantial price changes, the market dynamics were particularly intense. The "Implementation Rules for Car Trade-in-Subsidy," a policy introduced in May 2024, aimed at boosting automotive sales, significantly increased demand. Consequently, the Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 prices soared, reflecting a strong correlation with burgeoning automotive sector activities. Seasonal factors, such as increased demand during the Dragon Boat Festival, further accentuated the price hikes. The quarter also saw a 16% price increase from the previous quarter, underscoring the robust upward trend. A price comparison within the quarter revealed a 2% increase in the second half, highlighting sustained momentum. Despite facing no major plant shutdowns, the market had to navigate through supply chain bottlenecks and rising production costs, driven by higher crude oil prices. The overall pricing environment remained positive, buoyed by consistent demand surges and limited supply. The quarter concluded with Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 prices at USD 2560/MT Ex-Qingdao in China, cementing the strong upward trajectory observed throughout Q2 2024.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in the MEA region experienced a pronounced downturn, driven primarily by a confluence of unfavorable market dynamics. The quarter was marked by a significant oversupply relative to demand, particularly from the downstream sectors such as automotive and construction. This imbalance resulted in heightened inventory levels, exerting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the market was further destabilized by disruptions in the supply chain, notably the temporary shutdown of key production facilities, including the Al-Jubail plant, which exacerbated the supply glut. The economic environment also contributed to the bearish trend, with weakening purchasing power and subdued consumer demand, reflecting broader economic uncertainties. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, the market witnessed the most substantial price declines. The overall trends showed a distinct seasonality effect, with the summer months typically experiencing a downturn due to reduced industrial activity and slower construction projects. This seasonality, coupled with the increased supply from regional producers, led to a significant correlation in price changes throughout the quarter. Compared to the previous quarter, prices fell by 5%, reflecting a persistent negative sentiment. Furthermore, a comparison between the first and second halves of the quarter indicated a steeper decline of 3%, underscoring the continuous bearish momentum. By the end of Q2 2024, Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 was priced at USD 2440/MT FOB Jeddah, marking a definitive downturn in the pricing environment. The cumulative factors, including supply surpluses, seasonal demand fluctuations, and operational disruptions, collectively reinforced a negative pricing trend for Butyl Rubber in the MEA region and particularly in Saudi Arabia, indicating a challenging market landscape for stakeholders.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in Europe experienced a mixed trend. During April 2024, the market showcased bearish market sentiments due to disruptions in the commodity's supply chain. While the downstream Automotive sector showed strength during this period, the Manufacturing and Construction sectors exhibited weakness. As a result, the demand for Butyl Rubber from downstream sectors was met primarily by existing inventories. However, the accumulation of commodities led to a bearish trend in the Butyl Rubber market. On the other hand, the Butyl Rubber market experienced a slight incline in their trend which was primarily driven by heightened demand from overseas markets and an increase in the production cost of the commodity. Despite this growth, the domestic Russian automotive and construction sectors saw a downturn during the same period. The uptick in the Russian butyl rubber market can be attributed to the rise in exports to China. This surge is further supported by a new policy introduced by the Chinese government aimed at boosting the automotive sector, which in turn spurred demand from the downstream sector. The market activities were initially subdued due to the May Day holidays at the start of the month, leading to a pause in importing activities because of reduced market operations. However, upon the market's reopening, there was a notable increase in exports from Russia to China. Compared to the previous quarter, prices fell by 4%, reflecting a persistent negative sentiment.
