For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American C9 Solvent market experienced significant price fluctuations due to several key factors. Prices for C9 Solvent increased this quarter, driven by higher production costs, robust demand from the construction sector, and ongoing global geopolitical tensions.
Elevated crude oil prices raised production costs, pushing market prices higher. Additionally, challenges in the global freight industry, such as rising freight rates and shipping delays, further increased the costs of importing raw materials and finished products. In the USA, the market saw the most notable price changes, reflecting strong demand across various sectors, including construction.
Despite a decrease in C9 Solvent prices compared to the same quarter last year, there was a modest rise from the previous quarter of 2024, indicating a recovery phase. A slight increase was observed between the first and second halves of the quarter. Overall, despite rising production costs and fluctuating demand, the market sentiment remained positive, fostering a stable and cautiously optimistic pricing environment.
APAC
During Q2 2024, the APAC region experienced a declining trend in C9 Solvent prices, primarily influenced by several key factors. One significant factor was the overall decrease in the price of feedstock crude oil, which had a direct impact on the production costs of C9 Solvent. Additionally, subdued demand from downstream industries, such as paints and coatings, contributed to the decreasing prices. The market also faced challenges due to low trading activity and lackluster demand from the construction sector. These factors combined to create a bearish market sentiment, resulting in a decline in C9 Solvent prices. South Korea, in particular, witnessed the maximum price changes in the region. The overall trend in the country mirrored the APAC region, with prices experiencing a continuous decline. Seasonality and correlation in price changes played a role, with the second quarter historically experiencing lower demand compared to the first quarter. The percentage change from the same quarter last year was not provided, but the quarter-on-quarter change in 2024 was recorded at -1%. Furthermore, there was a -1% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter. As of the end of the quarter, the price of C9 Solvent FOB Busan in South Korea stood at USD 985/MT. Overall, the pricing environment for C9 Solvent in the APAC region during Q2 2024 was negative, characterized by declining prices influenced by factors such as low demand, reduced trading activity, and lower feedstock crude oil prices.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the MEA region witnessed a significant decrease in prices of C9 Solvent, with the United Arab Emirates experiencing the maximum price changes. Several factors contributed to the declining market prices. First, there was an influx of cheaper imports from overseas, particularly from Asian countries, which resulted in abundant availability of the product in the market. This increased competition and led to traders implementing discounts to alleviate pressure on existing stockpiles. Secondly, the off-demand winter season dampened the demand for C9 Solvent in the region. The sluggish demand, combined with high inventories at ports, further pushed prices down. Additionally, the price of upstream crude oil, which has a direct impact on C9 Solvent prices, remained relatively restrained during this period. Looking specifically at the United Arab Emirates, the market experienced a negative pricing trend throughout the quarter. The overall price change from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at -7%, indicating a significant decline. Moreover, there was a -3% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter, reflecting a downward trajectory. The quarter-ending price for C9 Solvent in the UAE stood at USD 1075/MT, further confirming the decreasing sentiment in the pricing environment. Overall, the MEA region, particularly the UAE, faced a challenging market situation with high supply and low demand, leading to a bearish pricing trend for C9 Solvent in Q2 2024.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European C9 Solvent market experienced a dynamic and upward pricing trend. This increase was primarily driven by higher feedstock costs and escalating freight rates and resulted a bullish trend in the European market. The cost of feedstock Crude Oil rose, directly impacting production expenses, while the global container freight index surged by over 30%, inflating logistical costs. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over potential crude oil supply disruptions, further boosting upstream costs. Strong demand for the product from the downstream construction and automobile sectors supported the market, despite concerns about gasoline demand and overall production expenses. In Germany, significant price changes were noted, largely influenced by rising feedstock costs and robust demand from key industries. Prices remained stable compared to the previous quarter but fell from the same period last year due to lower baseline figures. The price increase was observed between the first and second halves of the quarter, indicating a steady climb.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the price of C9 Solvent exhibited an overall bearish trend in the North American market. During this period, the US market experienced a significant price decline for C9 Solvent, largely due to increased imports from overseas offering more competitive pricing.
Additionally, demand from the downstream Paints and Coating industry weakened following the festive seasons. The domestic market maintained ample product supply, including inventories at ports. This surplus, combined with subdued demand in the downstream sector and heightened selling pressures, contributed to the market's bearish trajectory. Towards the end of the quarter, the normalization of the Red Sea crises, declining freight rates, and improved product supply further supported the bearish trend in the US C9 Solvent market.
Notably, the construction industry saw positive growth, with annual statistics revealing a 14% increase in completed houses compared to February 2023. Real estate developers remained active, evidenced by an 11.3% rise in newly constructed houses listed in February 2024. In summary, the first quarter of 2024 witnessed a downward price trend for C9 Solvent in the North American market, driven by increased imports, weakened demand in the paints and coatings sector, and favourable developments in the construction industry towards the quarter's end.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the European C9 Solvent market faced a bearish trend, particularly evident in Germany where prices notably declined. This decline was primarily influenced by increased imports of cheaper alternatives from overseas and reduced raw material costs. Demand for C9 Solvent from the downstream Paints and Coating industry remained subdued, especially following the festive seasons. Throughout the quarter, the domestic market maintained ample product supply, including inventories at ports. Sluggish demand in the downstream market, coupled with increased selling pressures on C9 Solvent, further accentuated the market's bearish trend. The end use construction industry experienced a notable decline in demand, reflecting a broader downturn in Germany's construction sector by the end of the quarter. Constructors expressed pessimism amidst subdued demand attributed to high interest rates and economic uncertainty. Housing projects, in particular, saw a significant decrease among the three main construction categories. Commercial projects also contracted, albeit at a slower rate compared to previous months, while civil engineering activity saw a solid contraction throughout March. Additionally, new orders continued to decline due to constrained demand stemming from tight financial conditions, elevated prices, and prevailing market uncertainty in the sector.
APAC
During Q1 2024, the C9 Solvent market in the APAC region experienced a stable pricing environment. The prices remained unchanged for several weeks, driven by a balanced demand-supply gap. The demand for the product has been consistently low, resulting in cautious trading activities and optimized inventories. Additionally, the falling crude oil prices in the global market further supported the stable price trend for C9 Solvent. Among the countries in the APAC region, South Korea witnessed the maximum price changes. The overall trend in South Korea showed stability, with prices remaining relatively constant throughout the quarter. This stability can be attributed to optimized inventories and a moderate demand-supply equilibrium in the market. There was no significant seasonality observed in the price changes for C9 Solvent during Q1 2024. The percentage change from the same quarter last year was not found, and the percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was also not specified. In conclusion, the pricing environment for C9 Solvent in the APAC region during Q1 2024 can be characterized as stable. The prices remained unchanged for several weeks, reflecting a balanced demand-supply gap and optimized inventories. South Korea, in particular, experienced stability in prices throughout the quarter. The latest quarter-ending price for C9 Solvent FOB Busan in South Korea was recorded at USD 1000/MT.
MEA
C9 Solvent pricing in the MEA region during Q1 2024 has been characterized by various factors that have influenced market prices. The United Arab Emirates, in particular, has experienced significant price changes. In the MEA region, the market for C9 Solvent has been influenced by factors such as costly imports from overseas, fluctuations in feedstock Crude Oil prices, and global growth concerns. The decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to extend oil output cuts has also had an impact on prices. In the United Arab Emirates, the market has seen fluctuations in supply dynamics, with low availability in the initial half of the quarter due to the Red Sea shipping disruption. However, supply improved in the latter half, boosting trading activities. Demand has remained stable, particularly from the downstream paints and coating industry. Overall, the market sentiment has been bullish, with prices increasing in February and remaining stable in March. The price of C9 Solvent in the UAE has increased by 1% in February compared to the previous month. Looking at the quarterly trends, there has been a positive outlook for Q1 2024. Prices have seen stability after frequent revisions, and the market is likely to remain optimistic. The price of feedstock Crude Oil is expected to increase, which may impact the price of C9 Solvent. In conclusion, the pricing environment for C9 Solvent in the MEA region, and specifically in the United Arab Emirates, has been influenced by various factors. Prices have experienced fluctuations but have remained stable overall. The market has shown a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2024.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
During the last quarter of 2023, the C9 Solvent market in North America witnessed a decline in prices. The foremost factor contributing to this trend was a decrease in demand, primarily attributable to challenges within the construction industry, leading to diminished buying interest among end-users.
Furthermore, the supply of C9 Solvent remained consistently high throughout the quarter, as manufacturers proactively produced the product in anticipation of future demand. However, the abundant availability of the product in the market exerted downward pressure on pricing. The United States, being the focal point of this analysis, witnessed a substantial downturn in C9 Solvent prices during the quarter. Specifically, the price of C9 Solvent in the USA decrease compared to the previous quarter. This decline was predominantly driven by the confluence of low demand and ample supply in the market. Additionally, the year-on-year comparison reflected a decrease in prices for the same quarter of the previous year.
The prevailing pricing trend in the USA during this quarter was profoundly influenced by the aforementioned factors, collectively contributing to a bearish market sentiment. In summary, the market dynamics for C9 Solvent in North America during the fourth quarter of 2023 were predominantly shaped by low demand, ample supply, and a discernible downward pricing trend in the USA.
Europe
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2023, the C9 Solvent market in the European region displayed a downward or bearish trend. The market contended with weakened overall demand from the downstream paints and coating industry, supply chain disruptions in countries like Germany and Belgium, and a bearish pricing strategy adopted by manufacturers. Germany, being the largest market in the region, saw destocking activities impacting prices. Despite ample product availability, the market found support in expected economic improvements and increased demand from the construction sector. Comparing the quarter, there was a significant decrease in prices compared to the same quarter of the previous year and also a decrease compared to the previous quarter. The market continued to grapple with the trend of offloading inventories, as industry players strategically managed stock levels in anticipation of the upcoming winter holidays. Contributing factors to the market dynamics included the prevalence of cheaper imports of C9 Solvent from overseas, high production costs, and obstacles in trading activities attributed to the winter season. In summary, Europe's C9 Solvent market grappled with challenges in Q4 2023, balancing low demand and supply chain disruptions with glimpses of optimism in economic activities and increased demand in specific sectors.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2023, C9 Solvent market experienced a bearish trend in the APAC region. Firstly, the falling crude oil value has had a significant effect on the downstream derivatives, including C9 and C10 solvents. This decline in feedstock crude oil prices has led to a decrease in the price of C9 Solvent, resulting in a 2.3% decrease in price from the previous quarter. Furthermore, the demand for C9 Solvent is expected to decline as traders engage in destocking practices by the end of the year. This decrease in demand has further contributed to the price decline. In South Korea, the pricing of C9 Solvent has experienced a bearish trend. The price of C9 Solvent in South Korea has shown a negative percentage change of 8% from the previous quarter. This decline was attributed to factors such as the falling crude oil value and the decrease in demand for the product. However, specific details regarding any plant shutdowns in South Korea were not provided. The latest price of C9 Solvent FOB Busan in South Korea for the current quarter is USD 1010/MT. This pricing reflects the impact of the aforementioned factors on the market. Overall, the fourth quarter of 2023 has been characterized by a decline in C9 Solvent prices in the APAC region, particularly in South Korea, due to the falling crude oil value and decreased demand.
MEA
During the last quarter of 2023, there was a significant decrease in prices observed in the C9 Solvent market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA), spanning from October to December 2023. This downward trend was influenced by the influx of cheaper imports from overseas and a state of moderate to low demand within the region. The concurrent ease in global crude oil prices, a crucial feedstock for C9 solvent production, alongside continuous and cost-effective supplies, contributed significantly to the observed reduction in prices. Particularly, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) saw a substantial 7.5% decline in C9 Solvent prices in November 2023 compared to the preceding month. This decline was driven by competitive imports and a relief in cost pressures emanating from the global crude oil market. Despite the price decrease, the overall consumption of C9 Solvent remained stable in the UAE, and non-oil activities sustained a consistent pace. Notably, there were no reported plant shutdowns during this period. As the quarter concluded, the price of C9 Solvent in the UAE was recorded at approximately USD 1170/MT CFR Jebel Ali.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
C9 solvent prices in the North American region showcased frequent fluctuations on the back of oscillating upstream crude oil value. As per the data, crude oil value showcased an uptrend throughout the third quarter of 2023, climbing up from 75 USD/bbl to 87 USD/bbl within this timeframe. This price escalation came after Saudi Arabia announced production cuts till December followed by Russia. However, demand fundamentals for the product did not remain the same, as the economic momentum of the country slowly picking up the pace, but the soft landing was not experienced by the chemical industry. Further, the US chemical industry, which has been continuously facing dullness since February 2023, started showing resilience in Q3 2023. The data released by FRED shows, PPI (Chemicals and Allied Products: Industrial Chemicals) improved from 306.840 (July 2023) to 308.028 (September 2023). Thus, C9 consumption was also observed to be increasing in the meantime, showing an incline trend, exacerbated by high crude oil value.
Asia
Taking pressure from high crude oil value, the price of C9 solvent escalated in the Asian market during Q3 2023. The data shows, C9 Solvent prices in India kept escalating throughout the quarter but eased down in H2 of Q3 2023 in other Asian economies including South Korea and Singapore. As per the data, South Korean C9 solvent prices skyrocketed by around 20% during July 2023 and later traders tried to cool down the fuming cost of the product in August and September. However, due to high-cost pressure on producers, C9 Solvent prices could not come down enough, showing an overall rise of around 10% during Q3 2023. A similar market trend was observed in other Asian economies like Singapore and Indonesia, where C9 Solvent prices followed the same path as South Korea on the back of similar market fundamentals. On the other side, India remained an exception in all of them, where prices kept their uptrend throughout the quarter due to the arrival of festivities in the country, showing a hike of around 12% during Q3 2023.
Europe
European market could not be an exception in this rising price trend of C9 Solvent, as the high crude oil value also affected the prices of the product in Europe. The data shows C9 Solvent prices traced an uptrend throughout the quarter in Europe due to high input costs and partial recovery in economic activities. As per the data released by Eurostat, the German economy remained the only large economy that lingered in recession during this timeframe, while other major economies caught resilience and gained overall stability. At the same time, Producer prices in industry (total) rose from 137.1 (July 2023) to 137.7 (August 2023) for overall Europe, as per the data released by Eurostat. Thus, consumption of the product improved slowly in the European market during Q3 2023 and supported an overall price uptrend for C9 Solvent in the region. However, this price hike was primarily driven by escalated crude oil value and continuously high-cost pressure on producers, which has been bothering profit margins.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
North American market remained concerned over the demand during the previous months, as rising inflation and fluctuating crude oil value were totally unpredictable during this quarter. During Q2 2023, the North American C9 Solvent market kept on fluctuating under the influence of fluctuating crude oil values. As per the analysis, the US market has been under the threat of recession, which has affected the demand fundamentals and caused the overall economy to face dullness. However, global crude oil (feedstock) value rose during the first month of the quarter due to production cuts announced by oil producers, which later kept on falling for the rest of the quarter. Consequently, this pricing dynamics of feedstock affected the prices of C9 Solvent in the US market during this timeframe, and C9 Solvent prices were heard to be fluctuating in line with the crude oil value. Further, due to uncertain economic conditions, the US PPI (Producer Price Index by Industry) fell from 248.619 (April 2023) to 245.830 (June 2023).
Asia
C9 solvent prices in Asia maintained overall dullness during the second quarter of 2023. As per the data, C9 solvent prices in India rose initially during April and started to turn downward for the rest of the quarter, which happened due to the arrival of monsoon season in the country amidst declined raw material crude oil value. Market respondents told ChemAnalyst that the demand for most of the solvents, including C9 Solvent, was moderate, while the prices were primarily tracing the trend of upstream crude oil. Furthermore, the Chinese market also witnessed a similar market sentiment to India, as the international market was betting on China for the global rise in demand. China eventually settled with lower than expected rebound. The data shows C9 Solvent prices in India declined by around 10.5% during this quarter and hovered around USD 1042/MT in India on an Ex-Mumbai basis. Heavy monsoon season in India affected the demand dynamics of several commodities, including C9 Solvent, while feedstock crude oil value also opportune domestic C9 solvent manufacturers to revise their offers accordingly.
Europe
The European C9 Solvent market kept on falling throughout the quarter due to low demand from the domestic market and prolonged market dullness. As per the data, European C9 Solvent prices sustained an overall downtrend during Q2 2023, and the fear of recession amidst already dull market activities remained the key factor for this pricing trend. Further, the data shows C9 Solvent prices in India declined y around 10% within the quarter. This decline was primarily driven by prolonged demand dullness due to consistently high inflation in the country, as per the data released by Eurostat PPI (Producer Price Index: total) fell from 138.3 (April) to 136.3 (May) and projected a similar sentiment for the month of June 2023. Apart from this, it was observed that consumer spending also fell in the meantime, especially in Germany, due to inflationary pressure on consumers’ heads. Additionally, Due to internal disturbances in economic activities, imports also declined in the country; thus, prices, too, as per the Eurostat index for Import Prices in Industry, have been falling since Q4 last yesar.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
C9 Solvent prices were overall on the decline in the United States in the quarter ending March 2023, supported by unchanged demand from the coating sector, while new orders continued to shrink, coupled with sluggish export inquiries, as rising interest rates and surging inflationary pressures triggered demand. However, in March 2023, C9 Solvent prices marginally increased as manufacturers chose to reduce production rates in the face of high inflation in the US market. The operational activities were average, and the production run rates were low, as manufacturers chose to mitigate the consequences of the restricted buying appetite in the domestic market at the termination of March 2023.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2023, the lack of downstream demand from the coating and rubber industry, C9 Solvent prices in the APAC region showed mixed market sentiments significantly and continued to impact the prices in mid-quarter. Furthermore, the slowdown in downstream operational rates, as well as an oversupply of the inventories in the warehouse exchange, impacted C9 Solvent pricing and significantly reduced producer profitability. Because of the economy's delayed recovery, market participants destocked inventories at reduced margins. Finally, at the end of March 2023, C9 Solvent prices rose by 1% month on month due to the reduction of the production rates and a steep rise in the upstream crude oil prices amidst the concern about the tightening of OPEC supplies in March 2023.
Europe
The pricing trend for C9 Solvent in the European market remained low throughout the first quarter of 2023, owing to narrowed cost pressure as exporting nations and production costs remained stable. Following shipment delays caused by industrial strikes in European countries, prices rose marginally in the producing countries. However, consumer sentiment declined. In March 2023, the companies decreased their prices to increase sales in the concern of piling of stocks. Furthermore, product offtakes by downstream market players remained moderate in the fiscal quarter ending March 2023. Meanwhile, European businesses felt provoking market-related uncertainties as OPEC announced crude oil production cut at the end of March 2023, which may have an impact on the April discussions.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Europe and North America's C9 Solvent markets both experienced the same pattern in the Fourth quarter of 2022. Upstream production was constrained by the average demand for this commodity from partners further downstream. The rubber, coating, and paint industries could meet their production needs because this product was readily available in inventories. The moderate demand for the product from other businesses downstream also affected its prices. The cost of upstream crude oil decreased as well, resulting in a significant decrease in this product's price.
APAC
During this quarter, the market for C9 solvent decreased across the entire Asia-Pacific region. There are numerous reasons why this product's price has decreased in China. The provincial governments' implementation of Covid-19 curbs and the downfall of the crude oil market, both of which contributed to the decline in upstream crude oil prices, were the primary contributors to the price drop. Additionally, businesses that use C9 solvent in paints and rubber had to reduce their production rates due to average demand significantly. India's market for C9 solvent in this quarter was comparable to China's. The average demand for this product from downstream industries and the product's ample inventory availability, which satisfied downstream companies' demands for the production of their end products, both had an impact on its price.
Europe
During this quarter, the market for C9 solvent in Europe decreased. Natural gas and energy prices significantly increased up until the second week of December as a result of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Consequently, downstream businesses showed average interest in this product despite their extreme concern. In Germany and the Netherlands, the market for C9 solvent followed similar trends. This product's price decreased in Germany as well as in the Netherlands this quarter due to the same factors. As a consequence of this, upstream businesses across Europe have been sustaining moderate production rates.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
This quarter, the C9 solvent markets in North America and Europe both experienced the same trend. The summer break slowed down production, resulting in a shortage of workers. As a result, manufacturers of automobiles and elastics were forced to limit their production and reduce their manufacturing activities. The product's prices, which were influenced by the decrease in costs of upstream crude oil, were also influenced by the moderate demand for this product from businesses downstream.
APAC
The market for C9 solvent experienced a decline across the entire Asia-Pacific region at the beginning of this quarter, but it eventually recovered. The price of this product has gone down in China for several reasons. The primary factors that contributed to the price reduction in the early days of this quarter were the Asian crude oil market recession, which resulted in a decrease in upstream crude oil prices, and the implementation of lockdowns by provincial governments. Due to severe power shortages, C9 solvent-using businesses in the automotive, paint, and elastics industries were also forced to halt or significantly reduce their production rates completely. However, prices began to rise on July 1 because of increased demand for this product for downstream processing. During this quarter, India's market for C9 solvent was comparable to China's. The price of this product was affected by the increased demand for it from downstream industries to meet the festive demands for their end products. This product closed its market in India this quarter at USD 1,550 per MT on an ex-Dahej basis.
Europe
The market for C9 solvent declined in Europe during this quarter. Production and energy costs were significantly impacted by the limited supply of natural gas and crude oil brought on by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Consequently, despite their extreme concern, downstream businesses showed only passing interest in this product. The market for C9 solvents in Germany and the Netherlands followed similar trends. The same factors that reduced the price of this product in the Netherlands this quarter also contributed to the price drop in Germany this quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
The stable demand for the C9 Solvent from downstream agrochemicals, surfactants, emulsifiers, disinfectants, and other enterprises in the North American region caused the product's prices to be steady. Due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, Varying freight charges in the area supported the price trend. Constant prices of upstream feedstock Asphalt Residue due to the ongoing battle between Russia and Ukraine helped the price in the regional market with the traders. Logistical constraints affected the shipment and transportation, thus impacting the trade. The fluctuations in the global petrochemicals market affected the downstream market sentiments during the quarter, and the inventories were observed to be steady.
Asia
The prices of C9 Solvent surged in the Asian market during the second quarter of 2022 with a quarterly escalation of 5% in India, as recorded by Chem Analyst pricing team data. Surging product demand from downstream coatings, paintings, agrochemicals, surfactants, and automotive sectors supported the market upward. Escalation in the global freight charges due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine put cost pressure on the product's prices in the regional market. The favorable crude oil price continued to support the fundamentals of the domestic asphalt market. At the same time, both the North and the South fell into supply shortages and intensely expanding demand. Due to tight supply, the sentiment of downstream supply is increasing. Road construction is gradually returning to normal as the weather improves, and requests will also be more open.
Europe
During the first week of June, C9 Solvent prices in Europe saw steady market trends. Local traders were hesitant as inflation, and Ukraine's situation increased. Additionally, shipping costs skyrocketed, further confusing them. After the Energy Information Administration announced an inventory drop of 5.1 million barrels for the week ending in May, crude oil prices increased even further. The inventories were stable, and market sentiments were in a wait-and-see mode with steady downstream demand. Reduced downstream demand on the domestic market contributed to the price reduction. The need for C9 Solvent has been significantly impacted by rising upstream crude prices and the region's ongoing, escalating geopolitical unrest. This quarter, it seemed like the traders were waiting and watching.
