For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the pricing dynamics of Calcium Nitrate in the North America region were influenced by a combination of factors. While the overall trend was bearish, with prices declining, there were nuances in the market situation that contributed to this. In the USA, where price fluctuations were most pronounced, the decline in prices can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, there were plant shutdowns that impacted supply. One notable plant shutdown was observed in Norway, a major supplier of Calcium Nitrate, due to strong winter storms. This disruption in the supply chain contributed to the tightening of supply and put downward pressure on prices. Additionally, lower demand in the USA, driven by reduced winter sowing acreage and dry weather conditions, further contributed to the decline in prices.
Comparing the prices in Q1 2024 to the same quarter last year, there was a significant decrease in prices. This can be attributed to the combination of increased supply from Norway, lower demand, and favorable feedstock prices. Furthermore, when comparing Q1 2024 to the last quarter of 2023, there was a slight decrease in prices. This can be attributed to the carryover of excess stock from the previous year and the continued impact of lower demand.
In conclusion, the final price for Calcium Nitrate CFR New York in the USA for Q1 2024 was USD 520/MT. The pricing dynamics were influenced by a range of factors, including plant shutdowns, supply disruptions, lower demand, and favorable feedstock prices. These factors contributed to a bearish trend in prices, with a significant decrease compared to the same quarter last year and a slight decrease compared to the previous quarter of 2023.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2024, the pricing dynamics of Calcium Nitrate in Europe were influenced by a variety of factors. While the overall trend was bearish, with prices declining, the market situation in Belgium stood out with more pronounced price fluctuations. The pricing in Belgium was impacted by factors such as low inventory levels, reduced imports due to domestic traders holding onto supplies, and lower demand from farmers and the industrial sector.
The surplus of Calcium Nitrate from the previous year contributed to the steeper price drop in Belgium. The seasonality of the market also played a role, with unusually warm and dry weather across Northern Europe leading to decreased farming activity and lower demand for Calcium Nitrate. Norway, major supplier of Calcium Nitrate observed lower activities owing to cold weather till the end of February, though deliveries continued. In terms of year-over-year, price change of 34% was observed in the given quarter.
Comparison between the last quarter of FY23-24 and first quarter of FY24-25 show prices deflated by 12%. The final quarter's price for Calcium Nitrate CFR Antwerp in Belgium was stated as USD 480/MT. Overall, the pricing dynamics of Calcium Nitrate in Europe in Q1 2024 were influenced by a range of factors, including inventory levels, import patterns, demand fluctuations, and seasonality.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 2024, the pricing dynamics of Calcium Nitrate in the APAC region were influenced by various factors. The overall trend in China, where price fluctuations were most pronounced, was bearish, with prices declining throughout the quarter. This trend was driven by falling feedstock prices and a continued destocking of Calcium Nitrate into the market.
The market situation in China was characterized by low to moderate supply, with domestic supply tightening and export controls being relaxed. Labor supply challenges and cold temperatures led to plant shutdowns, including the Shanxi JiaoCheng plant. Demand for Calcium Nitrate in China remained low to moderate, affected by strong cold currents and delays in winter sowing. However, demand is expected to improve as temperatures rise and sowing acreage increases.
The year-over-year price change from the. However, from the last quarter of 2023, prices declined by USD 13/MT or 5.6%. The final price for Calcium Nitrate FOB Shanghai in China was USD 225/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Prices of Calcium Nitrate observed mixed sentiment in Q4 FY23. Feedstock Calcium Carbonate prices largely remained on the stable end with Nitric acid prices deflating. In the month of October, prices pulled up largely due to the dry summer season with deficient rainfall observed, forcing fertilizer and downstream agricultural producers to undertake strong restocking of Calcium Nitrate for the winter sowing market.
The supply situation of Calcium Nitrate largely remained domestic, with substantial imports from Norway continuing. USDA data reflects that the calcium nitrate fertilizer industry continues to hold lower inventory levels by the end of FY23. As USDA released Calcium Nitrate into the domestic market at a slower pace than anticipated, demand for calcium nitrate slowed down in FY23 due to high costs.
Initial price pressure and restocking activities in October slowed down in November and December amidst tightening labor supply and seasonal challenges in the import industry. Feedstock price pressure also declined owing to lower natural gas prices, nitric acid, and ammonia prices. The Calcium Nitrate Prices still continue to remain 70% above pre-pandemic levels, with prices trading around USD 570/mt in the month of December 2023. In North American markets, supply continues to be restrained largely due to lower imports from Asian markets, while Norway continued to remain the major supplier. Overall, Q4 FY23 prices deflated by 17% over Q4 FY22.
Europe
Prices of Calcium Nitrate observed mixed sentiment in Q4 FY23. Feedstock Calcium Carbonate prices largely remained on the stable end with Nitric acid prices deflating. In the month of October, prices pulled up largely due to the dry summer season with deficient rainfall observed, forcing fertilizers and downstream agricultural producers to undertake strong restocking of Calcium Nitrate for the winter sowing market. Food prices continue to remain higher in Europe with stock change remaining positive as consumption remained subdued, forcing farmers to cut acreage amidst inflated prices. The supply situation of Calcium Nitrate was substantially from Norway. Major consumer, Spain, reduced import orders in the month of November and December amidst a dry spell and lower demand sentiments from the agricultural producers. Initial price pressure and restocking activities in October slowed down in November and December amidst tightening labor supply and seasonal challenges in the import industry. Feedstock price pressure also declined owing to lower natural gas prices, nitric acid, and ammonia prices. Prices still continue to remain 70% above pre-pandemic levels, with prices trading around USD 550/mt in the month of December 2023. In European markets, supply continues to be restrained largely due to lower imports from Asian markets while Norway continued to remain the major supplier. Overall, demand remained subdued due to a fall in acreage and high fertilizer prices. Overall Q4 FY23 prices deflated by 16% than Q4 FY22.
Asia Pacific
Prices of Calcium Nitrate observed mixed sentiment in Q4 FY23. Feedstock Calcium Carbonate prices largely remained on the stable end with Nitric acid prices deflating. In the month of October, prices pulled up largely due to the dry summer season with deficient rainfall observed, forcing fertilizers and downstream agricultural producers to undertake strong restocking of Calcium Nitrate for the winter sowing market. The supply situation of Calcium Nitrate largely remained domestic. Chinese markets tightened regional supply of calcium nitrate amidst fears of El Nino affecting production. Initial price pressure and holding activities in October slowed down in November and December amidst relaxing supply and seasonal challenges in the import industry. Feedstock price pressure also declined owing to lower natural gas prices, nitric acid, and ammonia prices. Prices still continue to remain 22% above pre-pandemic levels, with prices trading around USD 232/mt in the month of December 2023. Export markets remained subdued largely owing to higher inventories in Europe and the USA, and China reducing supply to export markets to keep the prices lower in the domestic market. By the end of December, due to shipping container issues, price quotations showed improvement in multiple areas. Indian markets are observing lower calcium nitrate and nitrogen fertilizer demand in the given quarter largely due to higher stocks and lower demand in FY23, with fertilizer subsidies falling 20% owing to a fall in international procurement prices while an uptick in import demand. Overall, Q4 FY23 calcium nitrate prices remained 48% YoY lower than Q4 FY22.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
The price of Calcium Nitrate in the North American region fluctuated significantly in the third quarter of 2023. The average price of Calcium Nitrate in the US per metric ton increased from USD 500 in July to USD 600 in September. This was due to a number of factors, including increased demand from the construction industry. The construction sector in the North American region is booming, and this has led to increased demand for Calcium Nitrate. The cost of energy has risen significantly in recent months, and this has also contributed to the increase in the price of Calcium Nitrate, as it is an energy-intensive product to produce.
Asia Pacific
The price of Calcium Nitrate in the Asia Pacific region increased significantly in the third quarter of 2023. The average price increased from USD 450 per metric ton in July to USD 500 per metric ton in September. This was due to increased demand from the construction sector. The construction sector in the Asia Pacific region has strengthened, and this has led to increased demand for Calcium Nitrate. There were a number of supply disruptions in the third quarter of 2023, which also contributed to the price increase. These disruptions included plant closures and transportation delays. The Chinese yuan has weakened significantly against the US dollar in recent months. This has made it more expensive for Chinese companies to import Calcium Nitrate, which has also contributed to the price increase. This was a slight increase from the previous month due to increased demand from the construction sector and supply disruptions.
Europe
The price of Calcium Nitrate in the European region fluctuated significantly in the third quarter of 2023. The average price per metric ton increased from USD 415 per MT (Euro 400 per MT) in July to USD 465 per MT (Euro 450 per MT) in September. This was due to an improvement in demand from the agricultural sector; Calcium Nitrate is a popular fertilizer, and demand for it increased in the third quarter of 2023 as farmers prepared for the winter planting season. This was due to a combination of factors, including strong demand from the construction and agricultural sectors, supply disruptions, and the weakening of the euro. The price of Calcium Nitrate reached its highest level of the quarter in September. This was due to continued strong demand from all sectors, as well as supply disruptions and the weakening of the euro.
