For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the United States, the Caprylic Capric Triglyceride (CCTG) Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by strengthening production costs.
• CCTG production costs increased, influenced by a 2.6% rise in PPI in August 2025 and strengthened natural gas prices.
• Demand for CCTG in personal care remained robust, supported by a 5.42% year-over-year increase in retail sales in September 2025.
• The CCTG demand outlook is mixed; strong consumer spending contrasts with declining consumer confidence to 94.2 in September 2025.
• Global palm oil production was lowered for Marketing Year 2024/25, impacting CCTG feedstock availability and increasing costs.
• US coconut oil imports faced tariff impacts in 2025, contributing to upward pressure on CCTG raw material expenses.
• Industrial production showed a modest 0.1% year-over-year increase in September 2025, indicating weak demand for industrial CCTG applications.
• The CCTG price forecast suggests continued upward pressure due to persistent inflation, with CPI at 3.0% in September 2025.
Why did the price of Caprylic Capric Triglyceride (CCTG) change in September 2025 in North America?
• Rising input costs, evidenced by a 2.6% PPI increase in August 2025, directly elevated CCTG production expenses.
• Lower global palm oil production for Marketing Year 2024/25 tightened feedstock supply, increasing CCTG raw material costs.
• Robust consumer spending, with retail sales up 5.42% in September 2025, supported CCTG demand in key end-use sectors.
APAC
• In China, the Caprylic Capric Triglyceride (CCTG) Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, due to producer deflation.
• CCTG demand outlook was mixed; cosmetics retail sales rose in July 2025, but consumer confidence was low at 89.6.
• Production cost trends for CCTG were influenced by rebounding coking coal prices and increased electricity trades in Q3 2025.
• Overall CCTG demand faced headwinds from a -0.3% year-over-year CPI in September 2025, indicating weak consumer purchasing.
• Despite a 6.5% year-over-year increase in industrial production, the Manufacturing Index was contracting in September 2025.
• The unemployment rate was 5.2% in September 2025, contributing to cautious consumer spending.
• The CCTG Price Index faced downward pressure from a -2.3% year-over-year Producer Price Index in September 2025.
• CCTG price forecast suggests continued pressure from weak consumer confidence and producer deflation.
Why did the price of Caprylic Capric Triglyceride (CCTG) change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Producer Price Index fell -2.3% year-over-year in September 2025, reflecting weak industrial pricing.
• Consumer confidence remained low at 89.6 in September 2025, dampening discretionary spending.
• The Manufacturing Index was contracting in September 2025, signaling reduced industrial output.
Europe
• In Germany, the Caprylic Capric Triglyceride (CCTG) Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by lower producer prices.
• CCTG production costs decreased in Q3 2025, as producer prices fell by 1.7% in September 2025, due to lower energy costs.
• Demand for CCTG was challenged by a 1.0% decline in Germany's industrial production in September 2025.
• Consumer demand for CCTG faced pressure from a stable 6.3% unemployment rate in September 2025.
• The CCTG price forecast remains pressured by contracting manufacturing activity in Q3 2025.
• German chemical industry sentiment significantly deteriorated in July 2025, impacting overall chemical product demand.
• Regional CCTG supply tightened in Q3 2025 due to declining German chemical production and plant turnarounds.
• Rising CPI at 2.4% in September 2025 increased overall raw material and logistics costs for CCTG production.
• Retail sales saw a modest 0.2% increase in September 2025, offering a slight positive for consumer-facing CCTG applications.
Why did the price of Caprylic Capric Triglyceride (CCTG) change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Producer prices decreased 1.7% in September 2025, driven by lower energy costs, reducing CCTG expenses.
• Industrial production declined 1.0% in September 2025, weakening CCTG demand in industrial applications.
• A stable 6.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 constrained consumer spending on CCTG goods.
