For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the Carbamazepine market in North America underwent a notable decline, marked by fluctuating prices and various influencing factors. This downturn was largely driven by the strategic actions of the USA, a major importer of Carbamazepine. The USA adjusted pricing strategies to maintain global competitiveness, which had a ripple effect on the worldwide market, leading to price reductions.
Simultaneously, the North American market saw a decrease in raw material para-aminophenol costs due to weak demand projections, further impacting prices. Additionally, US manufacturing activity declined with significant drops in order volumes, contributing to reduced US Carbamazepine prices. Responding to an oversupply, downstream processing enterprises adjusted procurement strategies, further lowering prices. In February, significant price declines were witnessed, influenced by Chinese provinces reducing prices, allowing US market players to adjust strategies. Supporting to this, further the strength of the US dollar against other currencies has facilitated advantageous import opportunities supported by an ease in freight cost in the month of march, enabling US market participants to procure Carbamazepine at reduced rates and in large quantities. However, despite these positive developments, the market faced challenges stemming from subdued demand, sluggish purchasing activities, and depressed consumer confidence. These factors collectively contributed to weakened market sentiment, prompting market players to adopt more aggressive pricing strategies to stimulate demand and offload excess inventories.
Asia Pacific
Carbamazepine prices in the APAC region during Q1 2024 have experienced an overall downward trend, with prices showing a decrease compared to the previous quarter of the last year. This decline was attributed to various factors, including subdued demand from downstream sectors, a weakened global economy, and increased competition in the market. In India, the largest market for Carbamazepine in the region, prices have seen significant fluctuations, influenced by a decrease in demand and a surplus of inventory. Furthermore, Seasonal patterns were significant, Year-end destocking activities also impacted the market, resulting in weakened downstream demand and abundant inventories, further pressuring pricing. To respond, businesses adjusted by reducing inventory, resulting in lower procurement volumes and continued price declines. Manufacturers and suppliers had to navigate these challenges, facing threats to profitability amid falling Carbamazepine prices and sluggish consumption in Western and Northern markets after the holiday season leading to a consistent higher stockpile among the merchants. Lastly, merchants highly reluctance owing to continuous devaluation of INR against the dollar further kept the overall market sentiments to remain on the lower side throughout the quarter. Overall, the pricing environment for Carbamazepine in India witnessed an overall pessimistic trajectory with supply-side outpacing the overall demand side. However, the latest quarter-ending price for Carbamazepine IP Ex-Vadodara in India stands at USD 61643 /MT.
Europe
Throughout the initial quarter of 2024, the Carbamazepine market in Europe, particularly in Germany, exhibited a discernible downtrend, indicative of a broader decline in prices and market sentiment. This downward trajectory was primarily influenced by strategic decisions made within Germany, a significant importing hub whose pricing strategies reverberated throughout the region. However, while Germany's actions played a pivotal role, other factors also contributed to shaping the market dynamics during this period. One such factor was the reduction in the cost of the raw material para-aminophenol within Germany. This reduction stemmed from weakened demand forecasts and decreased manufacturing activity across the Eurozone, exerting downward pressure on carbamazepine demand as a feedstock in pharmaceutical sectors. Market participants responded proactively to these evolving dynamics by adjusting their pricing strategies and actively managing inventories to prevent the accumulation of excess stockpiles. Despite these efforts, various challenges emerged, including diminishing local inquiries, which impeded destocking efforts, and export obstacles, resulting in order cancellations and delays. Moreover, the decline in domestic raw material prices further exacerbated the downward pressure on Carbamazepine prices. This led to an influx of discounted products saturating the market, reinforcing the prevailing downtrend, and creating an environment of heightened competition among suppliers. Lastly, supporting to this, traders higher reluctancy with respect to the purchasing of carbamazepine ahead of the persistent devaluation of euro against the dollar further created an imbalanced supply demand side, keeping the overall market sentiments to remain on the lower side.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
During Q4, Carbamazepine market prices experienced a mixed market trajectory. The prices plummeted at the beginning of October while going up significantly in mid-Q4 and declined yet again towards the termination. The primary factor driving this decline was the abundant availability of Carbamazepine within the domestic market. Moreover, downstream sectors that serve as significant consumers of Carbamazepine have increasingly adopted a just-in-time purchasing approach.
Additionally, the reduction in Carbamazepine prices can be attributed to the accumulation of surplus inventory among suppliers. This surplus stockpile stemmed from heightened production activities, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand. However, In November, sustained economic growth and accumulated consumer spending supported this rebound in downstream demand for carbamazepine in the USA. This was further evident in strong retail sales and rising consumer confidence indicators. Additionally, constrained inventories contributed to a demand-supply imbalance, further bolstering the market. Supporting this, the USA, as a major importer, mirrored the price trajectory of key producing and exporting market players to maintain market stability. Downstream enterprises adjusted their prices to address inflationary pressures, prompted in part by rising costs of essential input materials like energy and raw materials. These factors, combined with global logistical challenges such as port congestion and container shortages, hindered the smooth transportation of Carbamazepine from production hubs to downstream markets.
Consequently, transportation costs increased, and delivery lead times were extended, contributing to the surge in prices. However, as December 2023 commenced, the United States witnessed a significant downturn in the prices of Carbamazepine, a crucial component in various industries. The root cause of this downward spiral can be traced back to the global market dynamics, as the USA, being a major importer, found itself influenced by the trends prevalent in key exporting nations. The prevailing demand scenario can be characterized as low, indicating a subdued appetite within the market. Furthermore, Holders within the market took proactive measures by actively selling their products at discounted rates, strategically aiming to alleviate and deplete their stockpiles before the year ends.
Asia Pacific
In the APAC region during the fourth quarter of 2023, the Carbamazepine market witnessed a fluctuating trajectory, initially showing a pessimistic trend, rising in the middle of the quarter, and subsequently dropping considerably as December 2023 came to a close. In October 2023, the initial decline was driven by reduced sales in industries reliant on Carbamazepine. Both domestic and international suppliers faced a lack of new inquiries, leading to a less optimistic market outlook. Additionally, suppliers held substantial Carbamazepine inventories, prompting adjustments to price quotations to expedite product turnover. Some market participants reduced inventories to improve cash flow, contributing to the decline in Carbamazepine prices. The depreciation of raw material prices also influenced the market during this period. Moving into November 2023, there was a steady rise in downstream demand, fueled by increased consumption in the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries. Seasonal factors, such as higher humidity and the onset of the monsoon season, heightened the risk of infections and allergies, further boosting demand. The cost of inputs, including energy and fuel, contributed to the upward movement in prices. Despite this, market experts noted sufficient inventories among merchants, suggesting a balanced supply-demand scenario. Towards the end of Q4, prices experienced a considerable drop, indicating a steady decline with higher inventories available in warehouses. Supporting this trend, a slight dip in the Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) in December suggested potentially reduced production activity across various industries due to weakened regional offtakes. Lastly, throughout December, a reduction in downstream trade momentum further contributed to a gradual decline in market prices.
Europe
Throughout the entire fourth quarter of 2023, the pricing of Carbamazepine in the German market mirrored the market trajectory observed in the APAC region. In October, prices experienced a decline across the region, primarily influenced by the ample availability of Carbamazepine in the domestic market. Official data from Germany revealed a decrease in output during the third quarter, raising concerns about a potential recession in Europe's largest economy, driven by a decline in consumer spending. Economists anticipate that this situation may persist due to challenges faced by the vast manufacturing sector, including weak Chinese demand, high energy costs, and significant interest rate hikes. Moreover, lower-than-expected new orders in the region exacerbated the already pessimistic market outlook for Carbamazepine as of October 2023. However, in November, there was a modest economic rebound, particularly notable in key sectors such as pharmaceuticals and healthcare, showing signs of growth. Carbamazepine prices experienced a modest increase due to improved consumer sentiments in the domestic market. Downstream panel factories adjusted their procurement strategies in response to incoming inquiries, leading to heightened bidding and offers among enterprises, and influencing market dynamics. As Germany is an importing nation, Carbamazepine prices followed the trend of major exporting nations, resulting in an overall price increase. Yet, in December 2023, the slight decline in Carbamazepine prices in the German market attracted attention from industry experts and analysts, indicating a deviation from earlier projections. The initial forecast, relying on the expectation of a surge in inquiries from the downstream sector prompting proactive excipient accumulation, did not materialize. The available supply in the market proved sufficient to meet current demand and had a minor impact on market dynamics. Also, Domestic acquisitions were mainly carried out on a just-in-time basis, maintaining a continuous, albeit restrained, trade momentum in the short run.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
Carbamazepine API prices continued to mimic the market trajectory of the APAC region throughout the third quarter of 2023. The Prices remained on the pessimistic side through the entire month of July, while as q3 approaches in the middle, the market experienced a moderate rise in downstream healthcare sector demand. While considering the stock levels, the inventory of Carbamazepine continues to be elevated within the local spot market among the merchants to cater to the overall arriving requirements. Moving towards August, the prices rose at a steady rate, and on the demand side, the manufacturers continued to acquire materials based on orders, resulting in a consistent flow of Carbamazepine. Meanwhile, the surges in shipping costs have deterred many merchants from placing additional orders from exporting countries. Also, the raw material Acetic acid prices further rise, supporting the trend. Along with this, a consistently rising cost of energy and fuel further attributed to the price rise of Carbamazepine until the very end of September.
Asia Pacific
Across the APAC region, primarily within the Indian market, the values of Carbamazepine API continued to sustain its weaker pricing trajectory throughout the first half of the third quarter of 2023. This was supported by a persistent drop in consumption activity from end-user healthcare and pharmaceutical industries. In the meantime, falling prices of raw material solvents such as Acetic Acid, used in the production of Carbamazepine, further aided the reduction in carbamazepine prices this month. However, moving towards the middle of Q3, i.e., In August 2023, suppliers for this month were more focused on replenishing the inventory in their warehouses to meet the steadily increasing demand during this month. Further keeping prices high are the ongoing supply chain disruptions that make it challenging for Indian pharmaceutical companies to import APIs. In addition, the domestic acetic acid market, which is used in the production of Carbamazepine, had shown a broad upward trend, with prices continuing to rise, which added to the positive market trajectory for Carbamazepine in India. Furthermore, India's PMI numbers for August 2023 indicate that the manufacturing sector had a reading of 58.6, and the services sector posted 60.1, indicating continued growth in both sectors, albeit at a reduced rate compared to July. Moreover, moving forward in September, the CPI of India in September 2023 in points is 186.20. The CPI for September 2023 is 5.90% higher than the CPI for September 2022, indicating that inflation in India has been relatively high in recent months.
Europe
The prices of Carbamazepine across the German market mimicked a similar market trajectory as that of the APAC region during the third quarter of 2023. With the commencement of q3, the prices, i.e., In July, the prices went down consistently, leading to higher availability of inventories among the merchants and a weaker demand side. Supporting this, the production of Carbamazepine API in the past month across the exporting nations resulted in a higher output. This has led to an increase in the supply of Carbamazepine API on the market, which has put downward pressure on prices across the globe in July. However, moving towards the month of August, the market witnessed a rebounding pricing trajectory, stabilizing the prices on the northerly side until the final weeks of September. Market experts note that the energy cost in Germany was high, leading to an increase in the market prices, and the buyers were placing orders based on their requirements as they were expecting a long-term growth rate. Adding up to this, the value of the euro has declined against the US dollar in recent months, which has made Carbamazepine API more expensive for buyers in the eurozone. This has also contributed to the rise in prices in September 2023.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
Prices for Carbamazepine began optimistically in the North American region but ended pessimistically in the second quarter of 2023. Prices for Carbamazepine kept up with the Indian market trend throughout the second quarter. The prices gradually increased from the previous month at the start of the second quarter and last until mid-Q2 or until May 2023. The rise in Carbamazepine prices was attributed to improved demand in the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries, which also benefited the retailers by allowing them to charge more for their goods. Additionally, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US stepped up by 0.6% in May 2023 after increasing by 0.3% in April, adding to the optimistic market trend for Carbamazepine in the US. The energy index also grew by 3.9%. Prices for Carbamazepine sharply decreased as June approached despite strengthening CPI, which increased by 0.1% from May to June 2023. The retailers notice a sharp decline in local demand. In addition, many analysts and business leaders claimed that the US inflation rate was on the decline. However, according to the theory, there was still significant underlying inflation that was much higher than the Federal Reserve's target despite falling energy prices, and local suppliers of Carbamazepine had a sizable supply on hand that allowed them to meet the demand in their area.
Asia Pacific
As of Q2-2023, the prices of Carbamazepine, an Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient across the APAC region, demonstrated a descending pricing sentiment as the prices dropped inclined considerably throughout April and continued this trend depicting a positive demand outlook until the middle of q2 while the prices dropped considerably as Q2 ends, i.e., in June 2023. Carbamazepine consumption in the domestic market has increased as of April 2023, with inquiries surging at a moderate level both from the domestic and overseas markets. The manufacturing PMI, on the other hand, fell in April from 51.9 to 49.2, below the 50-point threshold that separates monthly growth from contraction, as market participants had enough inventory to satisfy the month's total demand. In May, the manufacturers began to replenish the shelves as the supply began to decline by stepping up production. The price trend for the month of May was supported by suppliers and merchants selling their finished goods for more money than usual. Also, he Is purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in India increased to 58.7 in May 2023 from 57.2 in April 2023. The increase in the PMI was driven by strong growth in manufacturing and services activity. The RBI has additionally raised interest rates twice in 2023 to cool inflation. Following June, the PMI for India in June 2023 was 53.9, which is slightly below the reading of 54.0 in May 2023, with declining purchasing activity and lessened exporting momentum. With this, the prices of Carbamazepine were assembled at USD 68694.95/MT IP Ex-Vadodara.
Europe
The prices of Carbamazepine across the German market mimicked a similar market trajectory as that of the APAC region during the second quarter of 2023. With the commencement of Q2, the prices surged across the region and continued to remain on the upper side until the middle of Q2. This was supported by the easy availability of downstream Carbamazepine when compared to the prior month at lower prices than usual from exporting nations such as India, one of the significant exporters of Carbamazepine. However, as June approached, the prices went down steadily, maintaining a steady demand-supply balance within their region. Also, the price of raw materials used to produce this API has been falling in recent months. This has also aided in the price decline. Supply chains were negatively impacted by geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which were made worse by higher energy prices. This had an impact on both consumers and businesses, which decreased economic activity. The rising cost of energy is another significant issue that the German economy is currently facing. Germany is a country that imports a lot of its energy, so rising energy costs are having an impact on both consumers and businesses.
