For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
During the first quarter of 2024, the North American Caustic Soda market continued to maintain an upward price trend. The market remained bullish with limited inventories and moderate demand. However, the industry faced challenges including disruptions in logistics and rising freight rates due to ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea region.
The potential disruption to shipping supply routes through Baltimore is partially offset by additional storage capacity in nearby areas like Philadelphia. However, even minor logistical challenges could impact pricing in the region. The closure of the Port of Baltimore coincides with increased Chlor-Alkali rates in Europe, potentially leading to surplus Caustic Soda that may be sold to the US East Coast. Concerns about low inventory levels in northeastern US tanks persist, although there has been slight improvement recently, allowing for more consistent price increases compared to regions with better supply and logistics. This was primarily driven by constrained production volumes and increased demand from the downstream Alumina sector.
The USA Caustic Soda market witnessed an 11% increase in prices compared to the previous quarter, with a significant 6.8% increase observed in the latter half of the first quarter. The latest recorded price for Caustic Soda 50% Liquid FOB Texas in the USA during the first quarter of 2024 was USD 362/MT during March 2024.
APAC
The first quarter of 2024 proved challenging for the Caustic Soda market in the APAC region, particularly in Japan. Overall, the Caustic Soda market in the APAC region, specifically in Japan, faced challenges in the fourth quarter of 2023 due to weak demand, supply constraints, and increased production costs. The market encountered several factors that impacted prices and overall market conditions. Firstly, there was a decrease in demand from downstream industries such as alumina and cleaning due to economic slowdown and reduced manufacturing activities, resulting in a surplus of Caustic Soda supply in the market. Additionally, the increased cost of production, particularly energy costs, put pressure on manufacturers and led to tighter profit margins. Lastly, the limited availability of stocks further contributed to the weak market conditions. In Japan specifically, the Caustic Soda market experienced significant price fluctuations during the first quarter of 2024. These price fluctuations were mainly influenced by supply constraints and limited downstream demand. The country witnessed reduced production activities and inventory digestion, leading to a tightening of market supply. Furthermore, the weak demand from the aluminum industry, coupled with increased input costs, further impacted the prices in Japan. Despite these challenges, the prices managed to remain relatively positive due to midstream shipments and average spot circulation. Specifically, the price of Caustic Soda Flakes FOB Tokyo (Japan) at the end of the first quarter was USD 366/MT. These challenges were further compounded by shutdowns in certain plants, such as the Sinopec Qilu Company in Zibo City, Shandong, due to a major fire incident. However, despite these difficulties, the market managed to stabilize, and prices saw a slight increase during this period.
Europe
The Caustic Soda market in Europe faced a challenging Q1 in 2024, with various factors impacting the industry. Plant shutdowns occurred in the region during the quarter, but the Caustic Soda market remained uncertain due to weak downstream demand and limited supplies. For instance, Nobian GmbH Werk Bitterfeld in Germany experienced a shutdown due to technical issues, resulting in a disruption in production. The plant was expected to resume operations by early April. Inovyn in France also faced temporary shutdowns due to technical issues, but the plants resumed production by mid-March. Caustic Soda prices surged in the German market due to an increase in downstream Alumina demand and constrained supplies. The downstream aluminum industry, serving as a gauge for economic vitality, was on the brink of recovery, fueled notably by the expected rise in global demand. A rebound in consumption in Europe played a crucial role in this industrial resurgence. However, challenges emerged as Russian aluminum exports to the European Union were projected to decline due to ongoing trade sanctions. Nonetheless, the U.S. aluminum industry remained a symbol of growth, undeterred by a GDP slowdown, illustrating the intricate dynamics of global economic interactions. Thus, the prices of Caustic Soda resulted from the positive signs of revival in downstream orders, and the supply chain grappled with challenges, including disruptions in logistics and the need to reroute paths due to turmoil in the Red Sea in the German market.
Saudi Arabia
During the first quarter of 2024, the Caustic Soda market in the Middle East and Africa region faced a new set of challenges that impacted pricing dynamics. These challenges were driven by various factors including changes in demand from downstream industries, economic recovery, and geopolitical uncertainties. One of the main factors that influenced pricing dynamics was the fluctuating demand from industries such as alumina and cleaning. The economic recovery in the region experienced a slowdown during this quarter, leading to decreased buying confidence among market participants and destocking activities. This, in turn, impacted the demand for Caustic Soda and contributed to the downward pressure on prices. Additionally, ample supplies and reduced purchasing activities also played a role in price fluctuations. The market experienced a surplus of Caustic Soda, leading to increased inventories and further downward pressure on prices. Geopolitical uncertainties and disruptions in shipping added to the challenges faced by the market during this quarter. These factors created additional obstacles for market participants, resulting in further pricing fluctuations. Among the countries in the region, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) witnessed significant changes in Caustic Soda prices during this quarter. The UAE market experienced a decline in prices, primarily due to weakened demand and increased inventories. The slow growth in the aluminum and cleaning sectors, combined with a sluggish economy, affected the buying confidence of downstream industries. Despite these challenges, the UAE market managed to maintain pricing stability, with minimal fluctuations observed. In terms of price trends, the quarter-ending price for Caustic Soda Flakes FOB-Jebel Ali in the UAE was recorded at USD 285/MT.
South America
In the first quarter of 2024, the Brazilian Caustic Soda market faced fluctuating prices due to various factors. Tight supplies in the US contributed to a significant price increase in Brazil by the end of March 2024. Additional storage tanks in Baltimore helped mitigate potential disruptions to shipping routes, but logistical challenges remained a concern. Limited inventory levels in northeastern US tanks during the first quarter led to consistent price increases in the region compared to others with better logistics. Earlier in March, Brazil experienced rising Caustic Soda prices due to shortages and production delays in the US. Weather disruptions in the US further affected supplies to Brazil. Traders adapted pricing strategies based on available stocks and implemented contingency plans to mitigate disruptions. In addition, increased demand from the surfactant industry and limited supplies had also driven up Caustic Soda prices in Brazil. Strong performance in Brazil's construction and consumer goods sectors, along with increased aluminum production and sales, further influenced pricing dynamics. Overall, downstream demand fluctuations and supply chain challenges played significant roles in shaping Caustic Soda prices in Brazil during this period. Thus, the price of Caustic Soda Flakes was assessed at USD 555/MT, during March 2024 with the latest increase of 7.7% at the termination of the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The Caustic Soda market in North America witnessed an increasing Q4 2023, with several factors impacting the market and prices. One of the primary reasons for October’s upward trend was the shortage of supplies, which led to a rise in prices, particularly in the US market.
The domestic and regional demand for Caustic Soda remained robust, primarily driven by the downstream Aluminum and cleaning industries, despite a slow-paced economic recovery. The input costs surged amid the weak US dollar, leading to higher cost pressure on the US market players. Furthermore, the Caustic Soda prices in the second half of the quarter witnessed marginal downstream demand from the Aluminum segment while destocking sentiments among market players weighed on the price momentum. The Caustic Soda prices stabilized in December 2023 due to a pause in production activities.
The latest price of Caustic Soda 50% Liquid FOB Texas in the USA for Q4 2023 is USD 329/MT in December 2023. The price trend for the USA in Q4 2023 is expected to be bullish, with a low to moderate supply and moderate to high demand. Overall, the Caustic Soda market in North America remained volatile, with various factors impacting the prices throughout the fourth quarter.
APAC
In the APAC region, the Caustic Soda market in Q4 2023 witnessed mixed market sentiments as the overall market was affected by a pause in purchasing sentiments, leading to an overall decline in prices. Secondly, weak demand in various countries, including Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam, contributed to the downward trend. The Alumina and cleaning industries experienced low consumption, as buyers in these sectors engaged in year-ending destocking activities. In the middle of the quarter, the Caustic Soda prices in the APAC market witnessed a decline, primarily attributed to sluggish consumer procurement activities in both domestic and regional downstream markets. The availability of ample stock in the regional market, as participants had already stocked up in anticipation of increased demand in the previous month, also played a role in halting the momentum of commodity prices. The Aluminum sector's marginal demand and reduced production rates in the Alumina processing industry of China influenced the product's pricing for the week. Moving forward, shifting focus to container freight rates, the average November value of the Ningbo Container Freight Index (NCFI) rose by 8.8%, reaching 706.6 points in November 2023. This increase was attributed to an imbalance in supply and demand on the Asia to North America trade lane during November, preceding the Christmas and New Year holidays. As cargo shipments concluded, the container shipping market entered the off-season once again. Overall, the Caustic Soda Flakes FOB Tokyo in Japan recorded a price of USD 264/MT at the end of the quarter.
Europe
In Europe, Caustic Soda prices experienced an overall upward trajectory during Q4 2023, attributed to improved downstream orders from the aluminum processing and textile sectors. This positive trend was further supported by marginal relief from high-interest rates and eased inflationary pressures at the start of the quarter. The European downstream market showed signs of recovery in October 2023, driven by increased construction and infrastructure development activities. Government and private investors contributed to this recovery by allocating funds to construction projects. Amidst uncertainty in the market, some chlorine producers announced plant shutdowns, prompting Caustic Soda players to adopt a cautious approach, limiting production rates and causing prices to rise due to short supplies. The Caustic Soda pricing dynamics were influenced by short supply, escalating input costs, and a depreciating economy towards the termination of the quarter. Kem One, a significant player in the French chemical industry, strategically paused operations at its chlorine and Caustic Soda production facilities. The Lavera facility has an annual production capacity of 341,382 tonnes of chlorine and 333,373 tonnes of Caustic Soda, while the Fos facility produces 635,710 tonnes of chlorine and 2,202,200 tonnes of Caustic Soda annually. Conclusively, the elevation in the Caustic Soda prices mainly resulted from the supply constraints in the region during the fourth quarter of 2023. The Caustic Soda Flakes price was quoted at USD 412/MT, FOB Hamburg (Germany) in December 2023.
MEA
The Caustic Soda market was overall down in the MEA region during the fourth quarter of 2023 due to inadequate demand and ample supplies. However, the regional demand from the aluminum industry was moderate, contributing to the price increase in October 2023 amid short supplies. Moreover, input cost inflation, driven by higher energy prices, further pushed up the prices of Caustic Soda. In November 2023, the Saudi market observed a decline in Caustic Soda prices, attributed to sluggish consumer procurement activities in the regional downstream market. The oversupply in the regional market further contributed to a decrease in exports for the downstream alumina and cleaning industry. Additionally, export-oriented markets in Saudi Arabia faced weakened demand conditions, impacting their growth prospects and squeezing industrial profit margins. The second half of the quarter witnessed high supplies and reduced export inquiries, aligning with the downward Caustic Soda pricing dynamics. On the domestic front, purchases were made on a need basis, and consumer enthusiasm for Caustic Soda in downstream segments was average for the month. Recent analyses revealed that international consumers scaled back both purchasing and manufacturing production activities, presenting additional challenges for the market. As a result, these factors collectively delayed the price momentum of Caustic Soda in the fourth quarter of 2023.
South America
In the South American market, Caustic Soda prices exhibited resilience in Q4 of 2023, primarily driven by support from the downstream Alumina industry and constrained supplies. The tightening supplies and congestion at Brazil's main ports contributed to the continued strength in Caustic Soda prices. The nation entered its rainy season, leading to transportation issues and a shortage of supplies for the commodity. The Alumina segment's increasing downstream demand since September, coupled with easing interest rates and economic recovery, further fueled the price rise. Moving to December 2023, Caustic Soda prices in Brazil saw another increase amid a shortage of imports and a modest uptick in downstream demand from the Alumina and cleaning industry. Volatility in freight charges elevated the cost of importing cargo from Asian countries, resulting in constrained supplies and challenges in fulfilling current orders in the Latin American market. Facing a shortage of pre-procured stocks, market players opted to sustain margins by gradually raising prices. Globally, several sellers passed the additional cost burdens to buyers by increasing commodity prices in November. Meanwhile, in Brazil, the rate of charge inflation remained below input costs but reached a five-month high, surpassing its long-run average. This dynamic reflects the complex interplay of supply chain challenges, downstream demand, and external cost pressures influencing Caustic Soda pricing in the South American market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
The Caustic Soda prices in the North American region witnessed an upward price trend in the quarter ending September 2023, owing to the consistent offtakes in the downstream Alumina textile industry and increment in the international offers for the product. The Caustic Soda prices in the USA showed an upward trend at the termination of August 2023, governed by supply disruptions due to high freight charges and the low level of the Mississippi River. In the USA, the production run rates were hampered by Hurricane Idalia hitting the Florida Gulf Coast, and Caustic Soda manufacturers in the USA, including Olin, opted to cut output in the face of a slow rise in the demand from the Aluminium industry. Therefore, Caustic Soda market players experienced a shortage of inventories to fulfill the existing offers in the country's domestic market at the end of this quarter. The regional offers from the regional market also gained a positive demand outlook throughout the quarter, and market participants enjoyed sustaining good margins in the USA. The upstream energy price trajectory also rose in the H2 of Q3, elevating input cost pressure.
Asia
The Caustic Soda prices fluctuated in the narrow range across the Asian region following consolidation in the market. The Caustic Soda prices in China have recently gained a balanced market situation along with a surge in the downstream Aluminium demand in the first week of September 2023. Meanwhile, the supply side supported the Caustic Soda market, as the adequate stock availability squeezed the demand-supply gap. Meanwhile, the demand for downstream Alumina is improving because of increasing new orders across the regional market, and the operation is expected to remain strong in the later months of the year. The worsening impact of the Typhoon in the country reduced the operational rates and contributed to constraining the domestic supplies for the product at the end of the quarter. Furthermore, the market players increased the prices in the last weeks of September 2023 to sustain their margins amidst a rise in international offers. Additionally, as per the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in August, the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 49.7%, an increase of 0.4% in August 2023, and the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry continued to improve in the H2 of the quarter for Caustic Soda industry.
Europe
During the third quarter of 2023, Caustic Soda prices were relatively stable in Europe, as the regional buying activities were low along with the marginal buying enthusiasm in the downstream textile and Alumina industry. In the middle quarter, the slump in construction activity amidst high-interest rates led to a downturn in the aluminum industry consumption of Caustic Soda throughout the quarter's first half. From the supply perspective, the Caustic Soda price trend is influenced by the lower electricity values in August 2023. The lower input pressure escalated the production activities across the German market, impacting Caustic Soda pricing dynamics. Additionally, the ECB (European Central Bank) raised the interest rates for the last time to lower the impact of the inflationary pressures on the market at the end of the quarter, adding to the factors for the decline in the product's demand since their extended summer vacations and they chose to engage in pre-purchasing activities for the month ahead cautiously. Despite escalated volatility in energy inflation, it is anticipated that the core inflation is coming down and concerns about growth after the latest rate hike by the ECB in August 2023.
Middle East Asia
The Caustic Soda prices in the Middle East Region were low in the quarter ending September 2023, as the demand from the Aluminium industry was on a moderate increase with adequate availability of inventories. This quarter's price decline resulted from the significant pressure from the voluntary oil output cut and stagnancy in the electricity prices. The surplus stock availability and low offtakes in the Aluminium industry across the regional market affected the offshore demand. From the domestic demand perspective, the downstream Aluminium industry inquiries continued to be weak in August 2023 in the Saudi market along with the oversupplied market. Additionally, as per the latest government economic indicators and statistics of August 2023 in Saudi Arabia, due to the high competitive pressure, the Caustic Soda market players opted not to pass the cost burden to the consumers amidst high output prices and weak demand fundamentals throughout the Q3. Furthermore, in the Saudi market, the downstream demand has shown signs of resilience at the termination of September 2023 amidst the country's improving economy.
South America
In the South American region, Caustic Soda prices saw an upward trajectory during the third quarter of 2023 and were primarily driven by consistent demand from downstream industries such as Alumina and textiles and limited supplies from the major exporter China for the product. Specifically, in Brazil, Caustic Soda prices started to rise towards the end of August 2023 due to disruptions in the supply chain caused by the production cut in China and the rise in the import costs in line with the increased demand fundamentals. Consequently, there was a shortage of Caustic Soda inventories to meet the existing demands in the domestic market by the end of the third quarter. Meanwhile, the downstream offers exhibited a positive demand outlook, allowing market participants to maintain healthy profit margins in South America amidst a slow revival in the region's economy. Furthermore, the rising trajectory of energy prices in the latter half of Q3 placed additional pressure on input costs.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
Prices of Caustic Soda were at an all-time low in the 2nd Quarter of 2023, for which the primary reasons were low demand from downstream industries of alumina, textile, and cleaning industries accompanied by the decline in the export demand due to high-interest rates and rising inflation, which compelled manufactures to cut costs in production and suppliers to destock material due to an oversupplied market. The situation for the overall market was bearish, even though electricity costs were subsidized, which kept production levels at moderate, and the resumption of operations on the West Coast towards the end of May. The weak demand from downstream industries of alumina processing, textile, and cleaning, declination of sales to China, a contracting export market, and the slow economic growth of the US were the cardinal reasons that played a major role in the depreciation of prices. Prices of Caustic Soda depreciated by 9.5% in April due to ample stock supplies, followed by an increment of 5.4% in May and 5.6% in June due to the slow recovery of the US economy and Fed put a pause on a hike of interest rates at the termination of June 2023. Towards the end of the 2nd Quarter, the price for Caustic Soda 50% Liquid was listed at USD 290/MT FOB Louisiana (USA).
APAC
In the first month of the 2nd Quarter, prices of Caustic Soda showed an upward trend due to a strong recovery of the economy and strong demand from downstream textile, alumina processing, and cleaning industries, even though production has kept at moderate levels due to a seasonal rise in the consumption of energy. However, in the 2nd week of April, an increment in prices was recorded as chloralkali industries were compelled to reduce production costs due to increasing prices in energy. In the middle of the 2nd Quarter, a decline in the prices of Caustic Soda was recorded primarily due to irregularities in the supply of bauxite and traders experiencing an oversupplied market due to low demand from downstream textile, alumina processing, and cleaning industries, consequently to Labour Day Holidays in China and reduced buying sentiments of the domestic market and a depressed offshore trade. Towards the end of 2nd Quarter, the Caustic Soda industry experienced a balanced market for which the cardinal reason was attributed to the depreciation in the prices of natural gas and elevation of the inventory levels of the product in the Chinese market, along with the consistent inflow of domestic supplies and stability in the downstream demand of Alumina processing and cleaning sector of the industry. Prices of Caustic Soda depreciated to 3.3 % in April, followed by an appreciation of 4.2% in May and again followed by an appreciation of 4% in June. At the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2023, the Caustic Soda Flake price was assessed as USD 345/MT FOB Busan (South Korea) in June 2023.
Europe
Prices of Caustic Soda remained stagnant in Europe after a significant drop in the last week of March 2023, particularly because of relatively low demand from the alumina processing sector. The market situation continued to be bearish in the 2nd Quarter of 2023, even though was an abundant supply of stocked material, but logistic strikes and operations halted by workers resulted in the restriction of movement of cargo, in addition to surging inflation and diminishing export orders from overseas. In the middle of 2nd Quarter, prices further declined as demand from downstream alumina slowed, because of which traders experienced an oversupplied market, even though production levels were consistent. Additionally, a slow revival of the European economy led to a decline in domestic orders in the downstream alumina processing market. Prices of Caustic Soda declined by 4.2% in April, followed by 12.4% in May and 5.3% in June. At the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2023, the price was quoted as USD 372/MT Flakes FOB Hamburg (Germany) in June 2023.
Middle East Asia
During the Quarter ending in June 2023, the price trend of Caustic Soda in Saudi Arabia experienced a decline. This was primarily attributed to reduced demand in the Alumina sector, which coincided with the festive season in April 2023 in Saudi Arabia. Despite the improvement in the cleaning industry demand in May, it was not significant enough to drive up Caustic Soda prices due to high supplies in the market. Additionally, buying confidence in Saudi Arabia was hindered towards the end of June 2023, mainly due to sluggish offshore demand and a muted trading atmosphere that followed a week of EID holidays in the local market. The economic slowdown in the region also played a role in dampening purchasing enthusiasm and profit margins for both manufacturers and traders. These combined factors led to the overall decline in Caustic Soda prices during the second Quarter of 2023 in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the availability of materials, an increase in production rates, along with a rise in employment rates prompted market participants to lower their prices in response to reduced input costs throughout the second Quarter of 2023.
South America
During the Second Quarter of 2023, the prices of Caustic Soda reached their lowest levels in the South American market. This decline was primarily driven by reduced demand from downstream industries such as alumina processing, textiles, and cleaning. Additionally, the export demand also dropped due to high-interest rates and increasing inflation, leading manufacturers to cut production costs and suppliers to destock materials due to an oversupplied market. Despite electricity costs being subsidized, production levels remained moderate. The resumption of operations on the West Coast towards the end of May did not significantly improve the overall market sentiment in the importing countries, including Brazil. In April, prices depreciated by 9.5% due to abundant stock supplies. However, in May and June, there was a slight recovery with increments of 5.4% and 5.6%, respectively, mainly due to the slow economic recovery in the US and the Federal Reserve deciding to pause the hike of interest rates by the end of June 2023 impacting Brazilian Caustic Soda price trend.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The Caustic Soda prices were on the downward side in the Quarter ending March 2023, owing to the slumped new offers from the downstream agrochemical and cleaning sectors and the high level of inventories. The business activity remained at a slow pace towards the end of Q1 of 2023, driven by the slowed-down operational activities in the downstream sectors amidst higher interest rates and modest economic growth. The widening of the demand-supply gap has impacted the pricing dynamics of Caustic Soda significantly in this Quarter. As per the latest insights, at the termination of March, prices were affected by the delays in the cargo movement in the international market and rising volume at the US ports in March 2023. Thus, the price of Caustic Soda showed a quarterly decline of nearly 3% in the Q1 of 2023.
APAC
The modest rate of increase in new orders in the Chinese market during the Quarter ending March 2023 caused mixed sentiments in the Caustic Soda market. Caustic soda prices showed an overall stable trajectory as a result of reduced inflationary pressure after the fading impact of COVID market-related disruptions and progressively rising consumer confidence in China's domestic textile industry and other competitive industries. This Quarter, The final Caustic Soda prices in South Korea have been influenced by the tumbling export demand amidst high stock volumes and current market turbulence in the Quarter ending March 2023. Meanwhile, the persistent economic slowdown in South Korea also contributed to the Caustic Soda price momentum in the first Quarter of 2023. Thus, the price of Caustic Soda showed a quarterly decline of nearly 4% in the Q1 of 2023 in the Asian market.
Europe
The Caustic Soda prices in the European market faced market-related uncertainties and tightening consumer budgets due to inflation in the first Quarter of 2023. Therefore, market players remained cautious about downstream inquiries recovery. The Caustic Soda price showed a major decline of nearly 4% in the quarter ending March 2023. Meanwhile, the Caustic Soda price dynamics in Europe experienced modest growth, driven by a slow increase in the offers from the downstream alumina and cleaning sector. However, the confidence level in transactional activity was minimal in March 2023 as overseas purchase orders were postponed. The European economy has persistently slowed down this Quarter, leading to dented consumer and business confidence in the Caustic Soda market.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
The Caustic Soda prices were low in the quarter ending December 2022 in North America. The muted downstream demand from the disinfectant, Alumina, and agriculture segments and market uncertainties caused the plunging price trend for the product. The potential recession and muted downstream sectors lowered consumer confidence in the US market. Nevertheless, traders remained cautious about the amount of supply increase as production capacity started to increase in the second half of October 2022. Additionally, the low demand and ample supplies led to the Force Majeure in Covestro, located in Texas (USA) from 23 December 2022 to 31 December 2022. The price of Caustic Soda, 50% Liquid, was quoted at USD 492/MT FOB Louisiana (USA) in December 2022.
APAC
The Caustic Soda market showed an overall downward trend in Q4 of 2022. The slumped domestic offers from the downstream Alumina sector amid the escalating market uncertainties affected the pricing dynamics of Caustic Soda in South Korea. The wait-and-see attitude amongst the buyers dampened the demand in the regional market for the commodity. The inflow of cheaper imports and consistent production activities in the region has also led to further negotiations in the Caustic Soda costs in the market during this quarter. Meanwhile, the bearish market sentiments compelled the Maintenance Shutdown in the LG Chem in Yeosu from 1 November 2022 to 26 November 2022, impacting the pricing trajectory of Caustic Soda. The price of Caustic Soda Lye was quoted at USD 348/MT FOB Busan (South Korea) in December 2022.
Europe
The Caustic Soda price showed an overall upward trend in the Q4 of 2022, backed by the crippled availability of stocks due to muted production activities in the region. The November and October force majeure in Germany disrupted supplies for the commodity, elevating prices in the market. Meanwhile, high energy prices caused input pressure on the caustic soda producers in this quarter. In addition, rising inflation in the region and muted Russian energy supplies compelled the manufacturers to limit production in the region and pass the increasing input cost pressure on the consumers in the regional market in the quarter ending December 2022. The price of Caustic Soda flake was assessed at USD 671/MT FOB Hamburg (Germany).
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The market for Caustic Soda witnessed a stable trajectory in September 2022, ending in North America. In August, the USA's Caustic Soda prices continued to show a plunging trend backed by the lower downstream demand. Besides, end-user solid demand in September and October impacted the price movement of Caustic Soda in the USA. Moreover, the declaration of Shutdown in the primary Chlor Alkali producing chemical plant Olin at the end of this year in Texas resulted in Bullish buying sentiments in the region. The high inflation rate in the USA accelerated the energy values and elevated the input costs for the product.
APAC
The Caustic Soda market showed an overall upward trend in Q3 of 2022. The price trend of Caustic Soda showed a northward momentum in the APAC market because of the rising COVID-19 cases in China and hampered production activities as a ripple effect. Insufficient availability of inventories conclusively impacted the pricing dynamics of Caustic Soda in Asia. Meanwhile, Caustic Soda's price trend accelerated in this Quarter, owing to the significant rise in the energy values and high inflation rate in the region. Meanwhile, high inflation resulted in the depreciation of the Chinese and Indian currencies against the US dollar, which also caused cost pressure on Caustic Soda in Asia.
Europe
Caustic Soda followed an upward momentum in the European market for Q3 2022. In Germany, a rise from the downstream demand resulted in an upward trajectory of Caustic Soda prices at the termination of Quarter 3 of 2022. The high inflation rate due to the War caused upward pressure on Caustic Soda input costs with a rise in the energy values in the European region. Moreover, a cut in the Russian supplies of Natural gas and a fall in the Rhine River levels amidst the hot season elevated the input costs for the product in this Quarter. Meanwhile, the European currency (Euro) depreciation against the US dollar caused cost pressure on the Caustic Soda market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
The market for Caustic Soda witnessed an upward trajectory in June end in North America. In April, the USA's Caustic Soda prices showed a declining trend backed by the slow downstream demand. Besides, end-user solid demand in May and June impacted the price movement of Caustic Soda in the USA. Moreover, Force majeure in primary Chlor Alkali producing chemical plants such as Olin and Westlake in the US system resulted in a shortage of inventories. The high inflation rate in the USA amid the War between Russia and Ukraine conclusively resulted in a bullish market for Caustic Soda in June.
APAC
The Caustic Soda market showed an overall upward trend in Q2 of 2022. The price trend of Caustic Soda followed an upward trajectory in the Asian market because of the resurgence of COVID 19 cases in China and hampered production. Limited availability of inventories with enterprises amid strong demand conclusively impacted the price dynamics of Caustic Soda in the Asian region. Besides, Caustic Soda's price trend declined in June because of limited inquiries and surplus availability of inventories amid gradual improvement in the production activities. Demand for the product was more sluggish than expected. Meanwhile, high inflation resulted in depreciation in Chinese and Indian currencies against the US dollar, which also caused downward pressure on Caustic Soda costs in Asia.
Europe
Caustic Soda showcased mixed market sentiments in the European market for Q2 2022. In Germany, robust downstream demand resulted in an increasing trend in Caustic Soda prices at the end of June. The high inflation rate due to the War caused upward pressure on Caustic Soda in the European region. Besides, in April, weak local market demand resulted in a fall in the prices of Caustic Soda. Moreover, the European currency (Euro) depreciation against the US dollar caused downward pressure on the Caustic Soda costs. Prices maintained an upward trajectory in Q2 2022 because of negligible fluctuation in Europe's demand and supply fundamentals. The price of caustic soda flakes was assessed at 715/MT in June in the European market on a FOB Hamburg basis.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The market for Caustic soda witnessed an upward trajectory throughout Q1 in North America. In the first two months of Q1, USA experienced various turnarounds in Caustic Soda plants. A plant of Olin with 3 million MTPA capacity in Texas went under shutdown in mid-March. Formosa plastics with a 736 KTPA chlor-alkali capacity underwent a turnaround in mid-February. As a result of these outages, pressure was felt by traders and manufacturers for availability of material. Demand for Caustic soda was seen bullish with the onset of 2022, and supplies were observed low because of regional uncertainties in North America. Prices of Caustic soda were assessed at USD 626/MT Louisiana in USA in the month of March.
Asia Pacific
The market sentiments of Caustic Soda observed fluctuations in China in Q1 of 2022. Overall price trend of Caustic Soda followed an upward trajectory in Asian market because of planned turnarounds in USA which increased the export demand from India and China. Besides, overall price trend of Caustic Soda witnessed a decline in January because of limited enquiries and sufficient material availability with manufacturers of China. Demand for the product was observed lower than expected. Moreover, the first week of March also experienced downward trajectory in prices of Caustic Soda due to low demands from downstream industries such pulp& paper, textile, and alumina. Prices of Caustic Soda flakes were assessed at USD 517/MT FOB Qingdao in the month of March.
Europe
Caustic Soda sustained high prices in European market for Q1 2022. In Germany, gradual increment in demand resulted in upward trend in prices of Caustic Soda. Supply of Caustic Soda reached normalcy after the resumption of several plant operations in Q4 2021. Prices took an upsurge because of negligible fluctuation in the demand and supply fundamentals. Price of Caustic Soda flakes was assessed as USD 711/MT in the first week of March in European market on an FOB Hamburg basis.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
Market sentiments of Caustic Soda remained mixed throughout Q4 in North America. Supply disruption caused by hurricane Ida continued to affect the availability in US amidst favorable demand from alumina, pulp and paper and detergent industry. In addition, shutdown of Shintech Chemicals post hurricane Ida due to equipment failure further stressed the supplies in early Q4. Supply eased in USA by late December with levelling imports from Germany following the upliftment of force majeure by Vinnolit upon its Caustic Soda plant. Besides, year-end slowdown in demand further restricted the offtakes from several major industries of Caustic Soda. Caustic Soda (50%) liquid prices in USA reached USD 550 per MT FOB Texas in November while they gradually eased by December finally settling at USD 510 per MT.
Asia Pacific
During Q4 2021, Caustic Soda Prices in Asia showcased mixed sentiments as the demand varied from country to country. India witnessed high export demand for the product from USA due to the supply disruption caused by hurricane Ida. Export demand from China also increased in early Q4 for the same reason, however due to ample production there was negligible impact upon its prices. Towards the end of the quarter, slowdown in buying activities due to the seasonal lull normalized the upward trajectory of Caustic Soda in India. Hefty shipments of Caustic Soda by year led to mounting of inventories which further pressurized its prices in India. Besides, commencement of second phase of Caustic Soda plant by Grasim Industry also stressed its prices. Caustic Soda prices in India averaged at USD 650 per MT Ex-JNPT, in December. While in China, prices remained range bound between USD 210-206 per MT FOB Qingdao throughout the quarter ending December.
Europe
In Europe, Caustic Soda market outlook remained mixed throughout Q4 following spate of turnaround due to the challenging climatic conditions in the region. A major manufacturer of Caustic Soda, Vinnolit declared a force majeure at its plants based in Germany owing to the climatic and logistic disruptions. Supply of Caustic Soda marginally eased with resumption in operations in these two plants in late-November, leading to a normalization in the price trajectory. Caustic Soda Lye prices in Germany averaged at USD 540 per MT in December.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
During the third quarter of 2021, Hurricane Ida made a landfall in Louisiana which resulted in several plant shutdowns in the Gulf Coast of the United States. Some of the major Caustic capacities that went offline were: Shintech with a production capacity of 1.2 million MT per year located in Plaquemine, Louisiana. Other than Shintech’s plant, Westlake’s 453,592 MT per year plant at Plaquemine also got shut down due to safety reasons and power outages. Several other plants also went offline which include leading companies such as Olin, OxyChem, and others. These plant shutdowns negatively affected the supply of the material in Q3 across the region. The pricing of Caustic soda was last assembled in the last week of September at USD 470 per MT FOB Texas.
Asia Pacific
The supply of Caustic soda in the Asia Pacific region remained firm throughout the third quarter of 2021. Skyrocketing freight costs and limited production of feedstock in China led to the increment in the prices of Caustic soda across the region. In India, the halted imports of Caustic Soda for a quality check due to the standard of quality set by the government of India led to a steep rise in its prices. The prices in India escalated from USD 456/MT to USD 513/MT during Q3 2021. A Bangladesh based manufacturer revealed that he had to return the advance payment to the Indian importers, as he was unable to send cargoes of Caustic Soda of specific standard. Offtakes were firm from the downstream water treatment and alumina industries in the third quarter as well.
Europe
In the European market, Caustic Soda price FOB Hamburg oscillated around $465-450/MT at the start of October. Several European Chlor-alkali producers complained about the limited production of the material due to the hike in electricity and fuel costs followed by the strong demand fundamentals. Prices observed slight ease of $15/MT with no signs of falling below certain levels as manufacturers fear curtailed production margins. “If the demand continues to increase, there could be a further increase in the price trend,” said a local supplier.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
The American Chlor-Alkali industry operations were seen improving after the industry suffered a setback from the polar winter storm Uri in the US gulf coast region which knocked out three fourth of the region’s chlor-alkali production. The operating rates improved to 70% in the North American region which proportionally enhanced the regional supplies in the first half of the quarter, whereas the demand outlook improved in the later half as the downstream activities picked up. Brazil, Australia, and Jamaica were the top export markets for the US Caustic Soda. It is observed that the US chlor-alkali capacity fell by 6% on m-o-m basis in May. Amidst the operational issues due to equipment failure, the Formosa Plastics facility in Westlake, Texas declared force majeure in early June. Demand is majorly focused from the water treatment and alumina production with FOB Texas pricing discussion settled at USD 320 per tonne in June.
Asia Pacific
During the second quarter of 2021, Caustic Soda supplies in the Asia Pacific region were sufficient to cater to the strong market demand as production rates were flared up in the Chinese domestic market. However, some constraints were witnessed during the May Day holidays in early May. Whereas in India, industrial and commercial activities were restricted as the country was largely impacted by the second COVID wave. Caustic demand showcased mixed sentiments in Northeast and Southeast Asian countries. Offtakes were firm from the downstream water treatment and alumina industries. The pricing trend in India observed a constant decline of 13.64% from the start of Q2 till the 2nd week of June since. Ex-Works prices in India settled at USD 442 per tonne.
Europe
With the resumption in market supplies, the European Caustic Soda supplies were seen easing with resumption in overseas supplies. Netherlands turned out to be the second largest importer of Caustic Soda with the volume totalled around 58 KT in the first four months (Jan-April) in Europe. Supply conditions in the second quarter improved in the European region as the operating rates at several plants were ramped up and the imports from the US improved in the second half of the quarter. Demand outlook in the European market remained constant from the downstream water treatment and alumina manufacturing sectors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
During the first quarter of 2021, Caustic Soda supplies remained disrupted as the freeze weather hit the US gulf region, resulting in shutdown of some major Chlor-alkali units in Texas such as Westlake Chemicals, Olin Corp., Oxychem and Formosa for over several weeks. The shutdown of several plants, however, did not affect the prices of Caustic Soda in the region which were assessed around USD 280/mt FOB Texas. Increased consumption from the downstream sectors significantly drove the demand of Caustic Soda in the regional market throughout the quarter.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
Caustic Soda supplies remained balanced in the first quarter of 2021, as various Asian producers scheduled a maintenance turnaround, however the situation seemed to balance out as a key producer resumed its unit during the end of January. The demand was firm during the first half of the quarter ahead of Chinese Lunar New Year holidays, later due to improved consumption from the automotive and alumina industries. The Indian Caustic industry reported dampened demand, and a further hit as the government’s trading arm denied any recommendations to impose Anti-Dumping Duty (ADD) on the Chinese Caustic Soda to lend support to the downstream consumers. This left a significant room for the inflow of cheap Caustic imports in India.
Europe
The supplies of Caustic Soda in the first quarter of 2021 slumped, as the Caustic Soda market hit historically low. In the Northwest Europe prices of Caustic Soda were averaged under USD 180/MT FOB in early March. The demand however surged as the majority of Caustic Soda supply was diverted toward the manufacturing of PVC production. Overall demand however remained stable with the economy still grappling to fully recover from the effects of the pandemic during 2021.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
North America
The third quarter Chlor-Alkali market outlook remained pressured owing to hurt sentiments in the United States as major Chlor-Alkali producers remained shut throughout the quarter after major parts of the US were put on alert due to Hurricane Laura. Scheduled maintenance turnarounds further exacerbated the supply chain issues. Downstream pulp and paper industries operated at curtailed rates making Caustic prices slip to staggering lows as number of infections continued to surge. The demand for liquid Caustic Soda for the production of flakes has slowed significantly, as producers have been unable to supply cargoes deterred by the economic fallout from the coronavirus slowdowns.
Asia
The Asian Caustic Soda market bounced back in Q3 2020 after chlor-alkali rates improved on the back of greater Chlorine demand for producing PVC. Due to slowed domestic consumption, some producers in Asia turned to the export market to ease stock piling inventories. Supply chains in many downstream sectors eased with ease in travel restrictions. Alumina production rates which remained staged to 75% in Q2 showed slight improvement with resurgence in industrial activity. Production rates in other downstream sectors such as pulp and paper, textile printing, dyeing and chemical industries are also returning to norm. Players have reported strong demand from hygiene applications such as bleach and soaps since the start of the year.
