For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Price Index for Cetirizine Dihydrochloride in the USA fell from USD 190,180/MT in April to USD 185,200/MT in May, before slightly recovering to USD 186,000/MT in June, reflecting a net Q2 decline of 2.2%.
• In April, a 145% tariff on Chinese imports triggered frontloaded procurement, raising landed costs and tightening supply, which modestly lifted the price index.
• Despite inflation easing in April (CPI rose only 0.2%), demand outlook for Cetirizine Dihydrochloride remained steady due to high inventory buffering by U.S. buyers.
• Product spot price dropped 2.62% in May as pharmaceutical buyers paused procurement amid regulatory changes and tariff recalibrations.
• The introduction of the “Most Favored Nation” pricing policy on May 12 led to uncertainty, delaying purchasing decisions and altering the product price forecast.
• In May, reduced Chinese shipments (-20.8% MoM) and inventory rationalization among importers pressured the production cost trend downward.
• June saw a 0.43% uptick in the price index, driven by anticipatory buying during the U.S.–China trade truce.
• Steady domestic consumption and inflationary cost adjustments in June mildly tightened market availability.
• Forward buying ahead of Q3 placed modest upward pressure on the product spot price, stabilizing the market.
• In July 2025, with inflation easing and post-May bottlenecks clearing, the price index is likely to increase slightly as importer confidence improves.
APAC
• The Price Index for Cetirizine Dihydrochloride in China fell by 5.06% in April, with spot prices dropping to USD 190,090/MT, amid weak overseas procurement and domestic oversupply conditions.
• Domestic factories faced inventory pressure due to a contraction in the manufacturing sector, compounded by the imposition of 145% U.S. tariffs that sharply curtailed exports—affecting the product production cost trend due to inefficient operations.
• In May, the Price Index further declined by 2.65%, reaching USD 185,060/MT, as Chinese suppliers struggled with rising backlogs of unsold material and continued order hesitancy, reflecting a muted product demand outlook.
• Weak new export orders and delayed shipments in May pressured suppliers to adopt aggressive pricing strategies, especially as buyers held off amid uncertainty in trade policy.
• The June Price Index inched up by 0.35% to USD 185,700/MT, attributed to short-term export recovery following a temporary 90-day suspension of U.S. tariffs announced in mid-May.
• The spot price increase in June was supported by advanced overseas orders and rising ocean freight rates, signaling better momentum in the product price forecast.
• June saw a partial rebound in export-oriented production, alleviating some overcapacity issues, although manufacturers remained cautious about future runs, reflecting volatile product production cost trend expectations.
• Product demand outlook improved slightly in June as downstream formulation segments maintained routine procurement and U.S. buyers front-loaded orders ahead of the tariff window.
• For July 2025, prices are likely to remain stable or show mild increases, as cautious overseas buyers resume activity without aggressive restocking due to unclear U.S. trade signals.
• Inventory levels have begun to ease slightly, but the Chinese market remains broadly well-supplied, limiting the scope for a sharp upward revision in the product price forecast.
Europe
• The Cetirizine Dihydrochloride Price Index in Germany declined by 6.5% in April, followed by a 2.64% drop in May, before recovering slightly by 0.40% in June, with the product spot price shifting from USD 190,120/MT in April to USD 185,850/MT in June.
• April’s decline was due to a supply glut from diverted U.S.-bound cargoes, pre-holiday stockpiling, and weak product demand outlook from pharmaceutical sectors.
• Product production cost trend remained stable, but high inventories and rerouted supplies from Asia led to excess availability in April and May.
• May’s price drop was driven by inflationary pressure, cautious buyers, and lingering post-tariff disruptions that complicated procurement cycles.
• Severe port congestion across Hamburg, Antwerp, and Bremerhaven in May delayed replenishment and deterred fresh orders.
• By June, the Price Index increased slightly due to disrupted supply chains, worsened port congestion, and early restocking to hedge against longer lead times.
• June’s product demand outlook remained cautious, with importers buying just enough to manage supply risk without overstocking.
• Rhine River's low water levels limited inland transport, amplifying delivery concerns and adding upward pressure on spot prices.
• For July 2025, prices are likely to increase modestly as consumer sentiment improves, importers regain confidence, and shipping backlogs begin to ease.
• Stabilizing inflation and forward purchases at higher values are expected to strengthen the product price forecast for Q3.
FAQS
1. Why did Cetirizine Dihydrochloride prices decline across regions in Q2 2025?
The overall price drop during Q2 2025 was primarily due to regulatory uncertainty, oversupply, and cautious buyer sentiment. In the U.S., the introduction of a 145% tariff on Chinese imports in April and the “Most Favored Nation” pricing policy in May caused buyers to frontload orders early, followed by procurement pauses. China saw a sharp fall in exports and rising backlogs amid weak overseas demand, which pressured prices downward. In Europe, a supply glut from rerouted cargoes, combined with sluggish pharmaceutical demand and inflationary caution, led to continued price erosion through April and May.
2. What led to the slight price recovery in June 2025?
June brought a modest rebound in all three regions as market sentiment improved. In North America, the brief U.S.–China trade truce prompted forward buying, lifting spot prices slightly. Chinese exporters benefited from resumed overseas interest after the temporary 90-day tariff suspension, helping to clear excess inventory. In Europe, early restocking, worsening port congestion, and Rhine River transport issues pushed the Price Index up mildly as importers responded to potential delivery delays.
3. How did inflation and logistics affect pricing and supply dynamics?
While inflation trends stabilized in Q2, logistics continued to impact pricing across regions. In the U.S., freight rates and supply chain costs influenced landed costs modestly, but high inventories kept price hikes in check. Chinese suppliers faced elevated shipping costs and delayed orders, which complicated their pricing strategy despite easing raw material inflation. Europe experienced major port congestion and inland transport bottlenecks, especially due to low Rhine water levels, adding upward pressure on costs and forcing buyers to adjust their purchase cycles cautiously.
4. What is the price forecast for Cetirizine Dihydrochloride in July 2025?
Prices are expected to rise slightly across North America, APAC, and Europe in July 2025. In the U.S., importer confidence is gradually improving as tariff-related uncertainty begins to ease. Chinese suppliers may continue to benefit from steady overseas orders, although aggressive restocking is unlikely. Meanwhile, European buyers are expected to return with more confidence as shipping backlogs clear and domestic sentiment stabilizes. Overall, the market outlook points to modest gains heading into Q3.
