For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the United States, the Citronellol Price Index rose in Q3 2025, driven by surging fragrance sales and rising producer input costs.
• Citronellol production costs rose, influenced by a 2.6% increase in the Producer Price Index for August 2025.
• Demand for Citronellol was bolstered by a 5.42% year-over-year increase in US retail sales in September 2025.
• Citronellol demand outlook remains positive, supported by surging mass market and prestige fragrance sales in Q3 2025.
• Overall industrial production grew modestly by 0.1% year-over-year in September 2025, limiting industrial demand expansion.
• Consumer confidence declined to 94.2 in September 2025, indicating reduced consumer spending on discretionary items.
• Petrochemical feedstock costs, including ethylene, remained relatively steady throughout Q3 2025, influencing production expenses.
• Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed region expanded in July 2025, with new orders and shipments increasing.
Why did the price of Citronellol change in September 2025 in North America?
• Rising producer input costs, with PPI up 2.6% in August 2025, pushed Citronellol prices.
• Strong consumer demand, retail sales up 5.42% in September 2025, supported Citronellol prices.
• Surging fragrance sales in Q3 2025, a key demand driver, contributed to the upward price trend.
Europe
• In Germany, the Citronellol Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, due to contracting industrial production and declining export demand.
• Citronellol production costs trended downward in September 2025, as producer prices decreased 1.7% year-over-year.
• Demand outlook for Citronellol was subdued, with industrial production declining 1.0% in September 2025.
• European natural gas prices moderated throughout Q3 2025, offering relief in energy feedstock costs.
• Consumer spending faced pressure from a 2.4% CPI increase in September 2025, impacting Citronellol end-uses.
• Germany's Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, indicating reduced industrial activity and lower chemical demand.
• Manufacturers actively reduced pre- and post-production inventories in August 2025, drawing down purchased materials.
• Export demand for German chemicals, including Citronellol, experienced a notable decline throughout Q3 2025.
• Retail sales in Germany rose slightly by 0.2% in September 2025, offering modest support for consumer-facing applications.
• The Citronellol price forecast suggests continued pressure from weak industrial demand and elevated raw material costs.
Why did the price of Citronellol change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Producer prices decreased by 1.7% year-over-year in September 2025.
• Industrial production declined 1.0% in September 2025, reducing demand.
• Consumer price inflation rose 2.4% in September 2025, impacting spending.
APAC
• In China, the Citronellol Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by deflationary pressures.
• Citronellol production costs rose in Q3 2025, with input cost inflation accelerating in August 2025.
• Citronellol demand outlook was mixed; manufacturing activity contracted in July 2025 but improved.
• Industrial production increased 6.5% year-over-year in September 2025, supporting some Citronellol demand.
• The Consumer Price Index declined 0.3% year-over-year in September 2025, indicating weak consumer demand.
• The Producer Price Index fell 2.3% year-over-year in September 2025, pressuring Citronellol prices.
• Raw material inventories for manufacturing declined in July 2025, narrowing by September 2025.
• Isoprene feedstock demand remained robust in Q3 2025, impacting Citronellol production costs.
• China's Manufacturing Index was contracting in September 2025, signaling reduced industrial activity.
Why did the price of Citronellol change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Deflationary CPI (-0.3% YoY) and PPI (-2.3% YoY) in September 2025 reduced overall pricing power.
• Contracting Manufacturing Index in September 2025 signaled reduced industrial activity and demand.
• Rising input costs in Q3 2025, despite stable energy, provided some upward cost pressure.
