For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Coal Spot Price Index in the U.S. climbed to USD 124/MT FOB Norfolk by June 2025.
• The Coal Price Forecast indicates short-term resilience amid seasonal energy demand.
• Why did the Price Index change in July 2025? Prices remained stable in early July, supported by continued heatwave-driven energy consumption and balanced inventories despite increased coal burn in the power sector.
• Coal Production Cost Trend remained stable with no major cost escalations, aided by a steady ethylene oxide environment and balanced feedstock availability.
• Coal Demand Outlook stayed firm in the power generation sector due to prolonged heatwaves, while steel production maintained steady coal usage supported by consistent capacity utilization.
• The energy sector continues to prioritize fuel security amid infrastructure upgrades and grid reliability concerns.
Asia-Pacific
• The Coal Price Index in APAC region dropped sharply by 2.2% in June 2025 to USD 105/MT Ex-Shanghai. Despite robust power demand, overall bearish sentiment prevailed.
• Why did the Price Index change in July 2025? The price index began to stabilize slightly in early July due to tightening coal supply expectations and revived trader activity, despite high inventories and sluggish industrial consumption.
• Coal Production Cost Trend: Financial pressure among coal miners in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia limited output expansion, while portside traders operated on thinning margins.
• Coal Demand Outlook: While the power sector demand surged due to record-breaking heatwaves, the steel sector showed declining consumption due to weak stainless-steel output and seasonal procurement caution. Overall, demand remained selectively strong but regionally imbalanced.
Europe
• The Coal Price Index in Europe remained relatively flat through Q2, holding firm amid stabilized energy mix and moderate demand.
• Why did the Price Index change in July 2025? Prices remained unchanged in early July due to sufficient domestic inventories and the absence of major weather or geopolitical disruptions affecting consumption.
• Coal Production Cost Trend: Costs remained flat with easing energy tariffs and stable rail freight costs contributing to minimal variation.
• Coal Demand Outlook: Demand was balanced with steady power sector usage amid high energy transition activity. The steel sector saw routine coal procurement levels, maintaining a stable but cautious demand environment.
Middle East & Africa
• The Coal Spot Price Index in South Africa declined by 6.6% in June 2025 to USD 97/MT FOB Richards Bay, reflecting weaker international demand.
• Why did the Price Index change in July 2025? The Price Index likely continued to soften due to ongoing rail disruptions, high trucking costs, and sluggish Indian import demand driven by monsoon impacts.
• Coal Production Cost Trend: Infrastructure failures and surging transport costs increased overall production and delivery expenses, especially for inland mines.
• Coal Demand Outlook: Domestic demand held steady through Eskom’s coal reliance, while steel and export sectors showed weakening demand. Export volumes dropped as Indian buyers pivoted to cheaper domestic alternatives amid monsoon slowdowns.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the coal market in the USA saw varying price trends due to supply constraints, demand shifts, and weather conditions. January experienced a significant 4.4% price increase driven by a polar vortex that disrupted mining operations and reduced production. This weather event, coupled with rising demand from data centres and AI-driven industries, tightened coal supply, pushing prices higher. Speculation about potential regulatory rollbacks under the incoming administration further fuelled price hikes, as industries anticipated changes in energy policies.
However, in February, prices dropped by 0.8% as coal supply increased, particularly to meet growing demand from the steel industry, driven by a 25% tariff on steel imports. This boost in domestic steel production required more coking coal, but milder weather and lower electricity demand dampened the price momentum. Although the steel sector's coal demand rose, it wasn’t enough to counterbalance reduced power sector consumption.
By the end of quarter in March, coal prices rebounded with a 3.4% increase as demand from the steel and power sectors remained strong. The rise in crude steel production and a projected record in power consumption supported coal's role in both industries. Despite long-term shifts towards renewables, coal continued to play a key role in meeting industrial and energy needs, resulting in a moderate overall increase for Q1 2025.
APAC
In Q1 2025, Indonesia’s coal market experienced mixed price trends driven by regulatory changes and weather disruptions. January saw a 1.5% price increase, with supply tightening due to heavy rains in key mining regions and a new government regulation requiring coal exporters to retain USD revenues domestically. These factors increased operational costs and limited coal availability, supporting higher prices. International demand, especially from India and Southeast Asia, was strong, further reinforcing price increases, particularly for low-CV coal.
As the quarter progressed, coal prices declined by 2.4%, as supply remained stable, but market uncertainties grew. Weaker demand for medium- and high-CV coal, alongside growing concerns over new regulations and the withholding of export revenues, put downward pressure on prices. Although demand from Chinese buyers for low-CV coal provided some stability, the broader market faced challenges due to shifting global consumption patterns and stockpiles in key markets.
By the end of quarter in March, coal prices dropped by 2.3%, influenced by a downward adjustment of the HBA price indices and competition from cheaper South African coal. Domestic demand remained robust, especially in power generation and stainless-steel production. Despite slower export demand and regulatory uncertainties, Indonesia's domestic market showed resilience, with the government’s focus on coal gasification and other energy projects supporting future coal consumption.
Europe
In Q1 2025, Europe's coal market experienced a notable decline, influenced by a combination of factors including high gas prices, increased renewable energy generation, and a general shift towards cleaner energy sources. The surge in gas prices during January prompted several countries, notably Germany and Poland, to revert to coal-fired power generation, as coal became more cost-effective compared to gas. This switch, while economically motivated, raised concerns about increased carbon emissions due to coal's higher CO2 output compared to gas.
Despite the temporary uptick in coal demand driven by the gas price surge, the broader trend remained downward. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a 19% decline in EU coal demand for 2025, primarily due to weak industrial activity and stagnating electricity demand. This decline was further exacerbated by the EU's commitment to reducing reliance on coal, supported by stringent environmental policies and investments in renewable energy infrastructure.
In summary, while Q1 2025 saw a brief resurgence in coal consumption due to high gas prices, the overarching trend in Europe remained one of decreasing coal demand. This shift is indicative of the region's ongoing transition towards cleaner energy sources, despite short-term fluctuations in energy prices.
MEA
In Q1 2025, South Africa's coal market experienced a continuous decline due to weak demand and oversupply. In January, coal prices fell by 1.8%, influenced by supply disruptions from Mozambique, high stockpiles at the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), and reduced consumption in the steel sector. The shutdown of ArcelorMittal South Africa’s plants further reduced coal demand, contributing to bearish market conditions.
As the quarter progressed, February saw a deeper drop of 2.8%, with oversupply issues continuing to weigh heavily on the market. Stockpiles increased, and weak demand from key markets like India and the Asia-Pacific region pressured prices. Despite some resilience in Mid-CV coal, the market remained subdued, exacerbated by Sasol’s decision to halt exports in May and logistical challenges.
By the end of quarter in March, prices fell by an additional 1.9%, driven by low demand from international buyers and high domestic stockpiles. While domestic consumption for power generation remained strong, weak international interest and logistical constraints, including disruptions in rail infrastructure, limited price recovery. Overall, the coal market in South Africa saw a total price decline of 6.5% in Q1 2025, reflecting persistent demand issues and supply imbalances across the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American coal market experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.3%. Demand for coal remained subdued, primarily due to a reduction in consumption across key sectors, including power generation and steel production. The power generation sector continued to rely more on natural gas and renewable energy sources, resulting in lower coal consumption.
Additionally, rising inventories of coal in power plants, coupled with relatively low natural gas prices, further dampened the demand for coal. In the steel production sector, reduced operating rates and lower steel output also contributed to weak coal demand. Despite geopolitical tensions and fluctuating energy prices, coal remained less competitive as other energy sources gained traction. U.S. coal production saw a continued decline, with production cuts expected in the coming months due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances.
The overall market sentiment was bearish, with coal prices facing downward pressure from excess supply and reduced consumption in both domestic and international markets. This trend is anticipated to persist through the end of 2024.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the coal market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, particularly in Japan, saw a slight uptick in prices, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6%. This rise was driven by ongoing supply constraints from major exporters, including Australia, amidst terminal maintenance and other logistical challenges. Japan’s coal demand showed mixed trends across sectors. While the power generation sector saw some increased demand due to seasonal energy needs, coal consumption in steel production continued to decline as steel output weakened. The Japanese government’s ongoing shift toward nuclear and renewable energy sources contributed to a reduction in coal usage for power generation. However, Japan's dependence on coal remained significant due to inconsistent nuclear output and the need for stable energy sources. Additionally, while the market saw robust supply from Australia, disruptions such as strikes were short-lived, and concerns over weather-related supply issues were alleviated. The market sentiment remained cautious, influenced by weak industrial activity and ongoing global uncertainties, yet coal demand held steady in key sectors.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the coal market in Europe experienced a period of stability, marked by fluctuating demand and supply factors. The European market faced subdued demand, particularly from key importing countries like India and the weakening industrial sector. Reduced coal consumption from the power generation sector, amid growing investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, contributed to this decline. Additionally, Europe continued to face challenges with rising energy prices and high stockpiles, further damping demand. While some countries maintained steady coal imports, others reduced their reliance on coal due to increased focus on cleaner energy alternatives. On the supply side, logistical constraints, such as delays in coal shipments from major exporting countries like South Africa, added pressure to the market, though alternative suppliers worked to fill the gaps. Despite these hurdles, the market showed signs of cautious optimism, with key producers in the region focusing on long-term production increases. Overall, Q4 2024 in Europe was characterized by a balanced but uncertain market environment, influenced by both external and internal factors.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the coal market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, particularly in South Africa, saw a modest quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5%. The market remained stable, despite several challenges impacting supply and demand. Supply was constrained due to ongoing protests in Mozambique, which disrupted coal shipments through the Port of Maputo, leading to alternative routes being used, including shipments through Durban. This, along with a split in Transnet, caused some logistical disruptions, though efforts to ramp up coal truck shipments helped mitigate the supply challenges. Demand from India remained average, with a slight rise in sponge iron producers’ coal needs, but power generation in the region saw moderate demand due to increased local production and declining coal usage for power generation. While European demand softened, the steel production sector in India faced challenges, further affecting the coal market dynamics. Despite the slower pace of growth, Exxaro Resources’ plans to ramp up production signal optimism for future coal supply. Overall, the market remained cautious with mixed demand and supply trends.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
Throughout Q3 2024, the North American coal market witnessed a steady increase in prices, driven by a combination of factors. Increased demand from various sectors, including energy and industrial, played a significant role in pushing prices upwards. The limited supply due to production challenges and logistical disruptions further fueled the price surge. Geopolitical tensions and sanctions on key coal-exporting countries also impacted the market, leading to a tightening of supply and an uptick in prices.
In the USA specifically, the coal market experienced the most significant price changes in the region. Despite fluctuations, the overall trend showed a positive trajectory, with prices consistently edging higher. Seasonal factors, such as increased electricity demand during the summer months, contributed to the price hikes. The correlation between energy prices and coal also influenced the market dynamics, with coal emerging as a preferred option due to its economic advantage.
Looking back at the same quarter last year, the price increase was substantial. Comparing the first and second half of Q3 2024, there was a notable 11% price difference, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics. The quarter-ending price of USD 52/MT of Brown Coal in the USA highlighted the overall positive pricing environment that prevailed during this period.
Plant shutdowns during the quarter included disruptions at [insert plant shutdown names here, adding to the supply constraints and further supporting the upward price trend.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 for coal pricing in the APAC region witnessed a decline in prices , reflecting a challenging market environment. Several factors contributed to this trend, including decreased energy demand, global supply chain disruptions, and lower buying interest from major importers. Plant shutdowns, such as the incident at the Grosvenor coal mine in Queensland, also impacted the supply chain.
Japan experienced the most significant price changes, with prices in Nagoya increasing by 1% from the previous quarter. Overall trends in the region indicated a negative sentiment, with prices consistently decreasing. Seasonal factors, such as reduced energy consumption during the quarter, further influenced the pricing environment.
Compared to the same quarter last year, prices were lower, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the coal market. The quarter-ending price for Black Coal CFR Nagoya in Japan was recorded at USD 153/MT, marking a continued downward trend in coal prices.
Europe
Coal prices experienced volatility due to fluctuating gas prices and seasonal demand. The prices were supported by increased demand from the electricity sector and declining stockpiles at key terminals. The demand for coal remained strong, driven by the need for electricity generation. However, supply was constrained by production issues in key exporting countries like Indonesia and South Africa. The European Union continued to reduce its reliance on Russian coal by increasing imports from other countries such as Australia, Colombia, and the United States. This shift was part of the broader strategy to diversify energy sources and reduce geopolitical risks. Despite the ongoing demand for coal, there were significant efforts to transition towards cleaner energy sources. The EU's commitment to reducing carbon emissions and increasing the share of renewable energy sources continued to impact the coal market.
MEA
In the MEA region during Q3 2024, the coal pricing environment experienced a notable uptrend, driven by a confluence of factors. Increased demand from various regions, particularly from the energy generation sector, played a significant role in boosting market prices. This surge in demand was further fueled by consistent requirements from industries such as steel production. Supply dynamics also contributed to the price escalation, with logistical improvements and effective rail networks bolstering the availability of coal in the market. However, occasional disruptions, such as plant shutdowns, posed temporary challenges to the supply chain. Within South Africa, which witnessed the most substantial price changes, the coal market demonstrated a positive trend overall. Seasonal factors and correlations in price fluctuations emphasized the resilience of the market amidst varying conditions. Comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, a marginal 1% price increase was observed, reflecting the steady upward trajectory. Ultimately, the quarter concluded with the price of Brown Coal FOB Richards Bay in South Africa standing at USD 106/MT, marking a notable ascent from previous levels.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What is the current price of coal in China?
As of June 2025, the Coal Spot Price in China stood at USD 105/MT Ex-Shanghai.
Q2: Who are the top coal producers in the United States?
The leading producers include Peabody Energy, Arch Resources, and Alliance Resource Partners.
Q3: What factors are influencing the Coal Price Forecast in Q3 2025?
Key factors include seasonal energy demand, inventory levels, renewable energy penetration, and logistics constraints.
Q4: What is the trend in Coal Production Costs globally?
Coal Production Cost Trends vary regionally but are impacted by energy tariffs, freight disruptions, and mine profitability, especially in China and South Africa.
