For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Coal Price Index rose by 3.593% quarter-over-quarter, supported by stronger power generation demand.
• The average Coal price for the quarter was approximately USD 57.67/MT at FOB Norfolk reflecting balanced fundamentals.
• Coal Spot Price eased with the Coal Price Index showing moderated spot market activity regionally.
• Coal Price Forecast suggests mild volatility as seasonal demand tapers and logistical disruptions constrain shipments.
• Coal Production Cost Trend muted as steady mine output offset higher rail and handling expenses.
• Coal Demand Outlook supported by power sector restocking and steady steel consumption into colder months.
• Coal Price Index movements reflected lower domestic inventories and elevated export enquiries tightening market availability.
• Operational outages and rail maintenance risks prompted short-term regional FOB premiums, constraining delivery schedules briefly.
Why did the price of Coal change in September 2025 in North America?
• Seasonal cooling reduced power sector coal burn, easing spot demand and softening Coal Price Index.
• Earlier summer inventory drawdowns narrowed supply buffers, keeping FOB markets firm despite softer immediate consumption.
• Logistics constraints and selective mine outages elevated delivery premiums, supporting short-term price resilience into September.
APAC
• In Japan, the Coal Price Index rose by 5.06% quarter-over-quarter, driven by supply disruptions, delays.
• The average Coal price for the quarter was approximately USD 138.33/MT on CFR Nagoya assessments.
• Coal Spot Price firmed as importers competed for prompt cargoes, tightening coastal inventories and premiums.
• The Coal Price Forecast shows moderate upside risk into winter as utilities accelerate forward purchases.
• Coal Production Cost Trend rose slightly with higher freight and demurrage, increasing delivered import economics.
• Coal Demand Outlook remains modestly constructive given steel restocking and seasonal power consumption for cooling.
• Coal Price Index volatility reflected tightened export flows, pre-emptive tendering, and heightened competition from buyers.
• Seasonal freight increases and port congestion elevated landed costs, prompting utilities to adjust procurement timings.
Why did the price of Coal change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Improved Australian shipments and resolved terminal maintenance eased prompt shortages, reducing import urgency into Japan.
• Cooling temperatures and above-average solar output reduced daytime coal burn, lowering short-term thermal generation demand.
• Eased vessel queues and normalized freight lowered demurrage exposure, improving landed economics, moderating price momentum.
MEA
• In South Africa, the Coal Price Index fell by 0.99% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting softer export demand.
• The average Coal price for the quarter was approximately USD 67.00/MT, reflecting lower export demand.
• Coal Spot Price pressure significantly eased as RBCT stockpiles recovered and rail logistics normalized post-maintenance.
• Coal Price Forecast remains bullish into autumn due to constrained export flows and seasonal restocking.
• Coal Production Cost Trend showed upward pressure from higher trucking rates and transport disruptions raising costs.
• Coal Demand Outlook is mixed; power sector steady while steel-related imports remain suppressed by weaker demand.
• Coal Price Index movements were influenced by Transnet rail disruptions, monsoon-driven demand shifts and seaborne supply.
• Coal Spot Price sensitivity increased as inventory rebuilding in India competed with African export availability.
Why did the price of Coal change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Export logistics improvements raised available supply, easing spot premiums significantly and reducing upward price pressure.
• Indian monsoon and industrial activity lowered import appetite, diminishing export demand for South African coal.
• Elevated trucking costs and residual rail bottlenecks maintained production cost pressures despite RBCT inventory recovery.
Europe
In Europe, the Coal Price Index displayed a mixed trend during Q3 2025, as power generation demand fluctuated amid variable weather conditions and changing renewable output.
• Coal Spot Price firmed in July and early August due to higher electricity demand during heatwaves and constrained gas supply from key import routes.
• Later in the quarter, Coal Spot Price softened as renewable generation (especially wind and solar) recovered and natural gas prices stabilized.
• Coal Production Cost Trend remained relatively stable, with steady mining, energy, and transport costs across major European import terminals.
• Coal Price Forecast suggests continued mixed movement through Q4 2025, with prices likely to fluctuate in response to weather-driven energy demand and carbon policy impacts.
• Coal Demand Outlook remains cautious—thermal coal demand from utilities remains under regulatory pressure, though intermittent renewable generation continues to support short-term coal burn.
• The Price Index remained range-bound overall, supported by modest import demand and balanced inventory levels at key ports.
• Stronger freight rates and volatile exchange movements temporarily lifted import costs but failed to create sustained upward momentum in prices.
Why did the price of Coal change in September 2025 in Europe?
• In September 2025, the Coal Price Index decreased as cooler temperatures reduced power demand, and gas-fired generation regained competitiveness.
• Spot buying weakened as utilities drew from existing coal stocks accumulated earlier in the quarter.
• Stable production costs and easing freight rates limited cost-driven price support, leading to softer market sentiment.
• Ample imports from China, USA, Italy increased landed availability, applying downward pressure on September offers.
• Soft procurement sentiment and high financing costs curtailed forward buying, reducing spot and contract demand.
• Stable port operations at Santos, easing freight premiums improved import competitiveness, keeping domestic offers subdued.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Coal Spot Price Index in the U.S. climbed to USD 124/MT FOB Norfolk by June 2025.
• The Coal Price Forecast indicates short-term resilience amid seasonal energy demand.
• Why did the Price Index change in July 2025?
• Prices remained stable in early July, supported by continued heatwave-driven energy consumption and balanced inventories despite increased coal burn in the power sector.
• Coal Production Cost Trend remained stable with no major cost escalations, aided by a steady ethylene oxide environment and balanced feedstock availability.
• Coal Demand Outlook stayed firm in the power generation sector due to prolonged heatwaves, while steel production maintained steady coal usage supported by consistent capacity utilization.
• The energy sector continues to prioritize fuel security amid infrastructure upgrades and grid reliability concerns.
Asia-Pacific
• The Coal Price Index in APAC region dropped sharply by 2.2% in June 2025 to USD 105/MT Ex-Shanghai. Despite robust power demand, overall bearish sentiment prevailed.
• Why did the Price Index change in July 2025?
The price index began to stabilize slightly in early July due to tightening coal supply expectations and revived trader activity, despite high inventories and sluggish industrial consumption.
• Coal Production Cost Trend: Financial pressure among coal miners in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia limited output expansion, while portside traders operated on thinning margins.
• Coal Demand Outlook: While the power sector demand surged due to record-breaking heatwaves, the steel sector showed declining consumption due to weak stainless-steel output and seasonal procurement caution. Overall, demand remained selectively strong but regionally imbalanced.
Europe
• The Coal Price Index in Europe remained relatively flat through Q2, holding firm amid stabilized energy mix and moderate demand.
• Why did the Price Index change in July 2025?
• Prices remained unchanged in early July due to sufficient domestic inventories and the absence of major weather or geopolitical disruptions affecting consumption.
• Coal Production Cost Trend: Costs remained flat with easing energy tariffs and stable rail freight costs contributing to minimal variation.
• Coal Demand Outlook: Demand was balanced with steady power sector usage amid high energy transition activity. The steel sector saw routine coal procurement levels, maintaining a stable but cautious demand environment.
Middle East & Africa
• The Coal Spot Price Index in South Africa declined by 6.6% in June 2025 to USD 97/MT FOB Richards Bay, reflecting weaker international demand.
• Why did the Price Index change in July 2025?
• The Price Index likely continued to soften due to ongoing rail disruptions, high trucking costs, and sluggish Indian import demand driven by monsoon impacts.
• Coal Production Cost Trend: Infrastructure failures and surging transport costs increased overall production and delivery expenses, especially for inland mines.
• Coal Demand Outlook: Domestic demand held steady through Eskom’s coal reliance, while steel and export sectors showed weakening demand. Export volumes dropped as Indian buyers pivoted to cheaper domestic alternatives amid monsoon slowdowns.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the coal market in the USA saw varying price trends due to supply constraints, demand shifts, and weather conditions. January experienced a significant 4.4% price increase driven by a polar vortex that disrupted mining operations and reduced production. This weather event, coupled with rising demand from data centres and AI-driven industries, tightened coal supply, pushing prices higher. Speculation about potential regulatory rollbacks under the incoming administration further fuelled price hikes, as industries anticipated changes in energy policies.
However, in February, prices dropped by 0.8% as coal supply increased, particularly to meet growing demand from the steel industry, driven by a 25% tariff on steel imports. This boost in domestic steel production required more coking coal, but milder weather and lower electricity demand dampened the price momentum. Although the steel sector's coal demand rose, it wasn’t enough to counterbalance reduced power sector consumption.
By the end of quarter in March, coal prices rebounded with a 3.4% increase as demand from the steel and power sectors remained strong. The rise in crude steel production and a projected record in power consumption supported coal's role in both industries. Despite long-term shifts towards renewables, coal continued to play a key role in meeting industrial and energy needs, resulting in a moderate overall increase for Q1 2025.
APAC
In Q1 2025, Indonesia’s coal market experienced mixed price trends driven by regulatory changes and weather disruptions. January saw a 1.5% price increase, with supply tightening due to heavy rains in key mining regions and a new government regulation requiring coal exporters to retain USD revenues domestically. These factors increased operational costs and limited coal availability, supporting higher prices. International demand, especially from India and Southeast Asia, was strong, further reinforcing price increases, particularly for low-CV coal.
As the quarter progressed, coal prices declined by 2.4%, as supply remained stable, but market uncertainties grew. Weaker demand for medium- and high-CV coal, alongside growing concerns over new regulations and the withholding of export revenues, put downward pressure on prices. Although demand from Chinese buyers for low-CV coal provided some stability, the broader market faced challenges due to shifting global consumption patterns and stockpiles in key markets.
By the end of quarter in March, coal prices dropped by 2.3%, influenced by a downward adjustment of the HBA price indices and competition from cheaper South African coal. Domestic demand remained robust, especially in power generation and stainless-steel production. Despite slower export demand and regulatory uncertainties, Indonesia's domestic market showed resilience, with the government’s focus on coal gasification and other energy projects supporting future coal consumption.
Europe
In Q1 2025, Europe's coal market experienced a notable decline, influenced by a combination of factors including high gas prices, increased renewable energy generation, and a general shift towards cleaner energy sources. The surge in gas prices during January prompted several countries, notably Germany and Poland, to revert to coal-fired power generation, as coal became more cost-effective compared to gas. This switch, while economically motivated, raised concerns about increased carbon emissions due to coal's higher CO2 output compared to gas.
Despite the temporary uptick in coal demand driven by the gas price surge, the broader trend remained downward. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a 19% decline in EU coal demand for 2025, primarily due to weak industrial activity and stagnating electricity demand. This decline was further exacerbated by the EU's commitment to reducing reliance on coal, supported by stringent environmental policies and investments in renewable energy infrastructure.
In summary, while Q1 2025 saw a brief resurgence in coal consumption due to high gas prices, the overarching trend in Europe remained one of decreasing coal demand. This shift is indicative of the region's ongoing transition towards cleaner energy sources, despite short-term fluctuations in energy prices.
MEA
In Q1 2025, South Africa's coal market experienced a continuous decline due to weak demand and oversupply. In January, coal prices fell by 1.8%, influenced by supply disruptions from Mozambique, high stockpiles at the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), and reduced consumption in the steel sector. The shutdown of ArcelorMittal South Africa’s plants further reduced coal demand, contributing to bearish market conditions.
As the quarter progressed, February saw a deeper drop of 2.8%, with oversupply issues continuing to weigh heavily on the market. Stockpiles increased, and weak demand from key markets like India and the Asia-Pacific region pressured prices. Despite some resilience in Mid-CV coal, the market remained subdued, exacerbated by Sasol’s decision to halt exports in May and logistical challenges.
By the end of quarter in March, prices fell by an additional 1.9%, driven by low demand from international buyers and high domestic stockpiles. While domestic consumption for power generation remained strong, weak international interest and logistical constraints, including disruptions in rail infrastructure, limited price recovery. Overall, the coal market in South Africa saw a total price decline of 6.5% in Q1 2025, reflecting persistent demand issues and supply imbalances across the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American coal market experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.3%. Demand for coal remained subdued, primarily due to a reduction in consumption across key sectors, including power generation and steel production. The power generation sector continued to rely more on natural gas and renewable energy sources, resulting in lower coal consumption.
Additionally, rising inventories of coal in power plants, coupled with relatively low natural gas prices, further dampened the demand for coal. In the steel production sector, reduced operating rates and lower steel output also contributed to weak coal demand. Despite geopolitical tensions and fluctuating energy prices, coal remained less competitive as other energy sources gained traction. U.S. coal production saw a continued decline, with production cuts expected in the coming months due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances.
The overall market sentiment was bearish, with coal prices facing downward pressure from excess supply and reduced consumption in both domestic and international markets. This trend is anticipated to persist through the end of 2024.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the coal market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, particularly in Japan, saw a slight uptick in prices, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6%. This rise was driven by ongoing supply constraints from major exporters, including Australia, amidst terminal maintenance and other logistical challenges. Japan’s coal demand showed mixed trends across sectors. While the power generation sector saw some increased demand due to seasonal energy needs, coal consumption in steel production continued to decline as steel output weakened. The Japanese government’s ongoing shift toward nuclear and renewable energy sources contributed to a reduction in coal usage for power generation. However, Japan's dependence on coal remained significant due to inconsistent nuclear output and the need for stable energy sources. Additionally, while the market saw robust supply from Australia, disruptions such as strikes were short-lived, and concerns over weather-related supply issues were alleviated. The market sentiment remained cautious, influenced by weak industrial activity and ongoing global uncertainties, yet coal demand held steady in key sectors.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the coal market in Europe experienced a period of stability, marked by fluctuating demand and supply factors. The European market faced subdued demand, particularly from key importing countries like India and the weakening industrial sector. Reduced coal consumption from the power generation sector, amid growing investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, contributed to this decline. Additionally, Europe continued to face challenges with rising energy prices and high stockpiles, further damping demand. While some countries maintained steady coal imports, others reduced their reliance on coal due to increased focus on cleaner energy alternatives. On the supply side, logistical constraints, such as delays in coal shipments from major exporting countries like South Africa, added pressure to the market, though alternative suppliers worked to fill the gaps. Despite these hurdles, the market showed signs of cautious optimism, with key producers in the region focusing on long-term production increases. Overall, Q4 2024 in Europe was characterized by a balanced but uncertain market environment, influenced by both external and internal factors.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the coal market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, particularly in South Africa, saw a modest quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5%. The market remained stable, despite several challenges impacting supply and demand. Supply was constrained due to ongoing protests in Mozambique, which disrupted coal shipments through the Port of Maputo, leading to alternative routes being used, including shipments through Durban. This, along with a split in Transnet, caused some logistical disruptions, though efforts to ramp up coal truck shipments helped mitigate the supply challenges. Demand from India remained average, with a slight rise in sponge iron producers’ coal needs, but power generation in the region saw moderate demand due to increased local production and declining coal usage for power generation. While European demand softened, the steel production sector in India faced challenges, further affecting the coal market dynamics. Despite the slower pace of growth, Exxaro Resources’ plans to ramp up production signal optimism for future coal supply. Overall, the market remained cautious with mixed demand and supply trends.
