For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the United States, the Cobalt Price Index rose in Q3 2025, driven by strong EV demand and tightening supply.
• Production costs rose due to higher wholesale electricity prices and increased industrial retail electricity revenues in August 2025.
• Automotive demand for electric vehicles surged to record highs in Q3 2025, significantly boosting Cobalt consumption.
• Retail sales increased 5.42% year-over-year in September 2025, supported by a 4.3% unemployment rate.
• Global cobalt market oversupply eased in Q3 2025 as inventories tightened due to DRC export controls.
• Cobalt trade flows were disrupted in Q3 2025 by DRC export bans and U.S.-China trade tensions.
• Industrial production increased 0.1% year-over-year in September 2025, indicating near stagnation for Cobalt demand.
• Inflation (CPI 3.0% in September 2025, PPI 2.6% in August 2025) increased Cobalt operational costs.
• Declining consumer confidence to 94.2 in September 2025 suggested headwinds for discretionary Cobalt purchases.
Why did the price of Cobalt change in September 2025 in North America?
• Strong EV sales in Q3 2025 boosted Cobalt demand.
• Supply tightened from DRC export controls in Q3 2025.
• Higher electricity prices in August 2025 increased production costs.
APAC
• In China, the Cobalt Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, due to deflationary pressures and oversupply.
• Robust electric vehicle sales, 60% of total car sales in Q3 2025, supported Cobalt demand.
• The DRC's cobalt export suspension in Q3 2025 tightened raw material availability, influencing production costs.
• Global cobalt markets remained oversupplied throughout 2025, contributing to downward price pressure.
• China's cobalt hydroxide imports plummeted in June 2025, remaining low through Q3, affecting domestic inventories.
• Deflationary pressures, with CPI down 0.3% and PPI down 2.3% in September 2025, indicated weak demand.
• A Contracting Manufacturing Index in September 2025 suggested reduced industrial activity.
• Industrial production increased 6.5% year-over-year in September 2025, indicating stronger manufacturing activity.
• Retail sales increased 3.0% year-over-year in September 2025, boosting demand for consumer goods.
Why did the price of Cobalt change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Deflationary pressures, with CPI down 0.3% and PPI down 2.3% in September 2025, dampened demand.
• A Contracting Manufacturing Index in September 2025 signaled reduced industrial activity.
• Global oversupply and low cobalt hydroxide imports to China impacted domestic inventory levels.
Europe
• In Germany, the Cobalt Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by contracting industrial activity and elevated inventories.
• Cobalt production costs were impacted by copper mining costs and a 1.7% year-over-year decrease in producer prices in September 2025.
• Demand outlook was mixed; EV and portable electronics strengthened, but LFP battery adoption moderated cobalt chemical demand in Q3 2025.
• DRC export restrictions significantly tightened global cobalt supply through September 2025, impacting international trade flows.
• Refined cobalt social inventory remained elevated in July 2025, contributing to supply availability despite restrictions.
• The Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, indicating reduced overall industrial activity and demand for raw materials.
• Industrial production decreased by 1.0% year-over-year in September 2025, signaling weaker manufacturing output for cobalt end-uses.
• The Cobalt Price Forecast suggests continued pressure from elevated inventories and cautious industrial sentiment in Q4 2025.
Why did the price of Cobalt change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Contracting Manufacturing Index in Q3 2025 reduced overall industrial demand for cobalt-containing products.
• Elevated refined cobalt social inventory in July 2025 contributed to ample supply despite export restrictions.
• Industrial production declined by 1.0% year-over-year in September 2025, dampening demand across key sectors.
