For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The overall quarterly trend for Cocoa Spot Prices in North America was downward, with an average quarter-over-quarter price decrease; however, June 2025 saw a modest rebound, yet steadily as robust procurement by confectionery and beverage sectors helped offset preceding declines.
• June witnessed marked price volatility; disruptions in West African supply chains, shipping delays, and futures market speculation led to a partial spot price recovery by the end of Q2.
• The Price Forecast for next quarter indicates a stabilization or slight upwards correction, as inventories have reached a 10-month high by mid-June, suggesting near-term supply adequacy despite earlier tightness.
• Production Cost Trend within the quarter second showed steady increases, propelled by higher import costs from shipping delays, currency fluctuations, and elevated global freight rates that affected landed costs.
• Demand Outlook within the quarter second indicated resilience in North American markets, particularly as confectionery and ready-to-eat dessert sectors increased procurement ahead of seasonal promotions.
• The region’s robust distribution infrastructure and strong chocolate consumption patterns supported sustained procurement, reducing the impact of global volatility on downstream demand.
• The manufacturing segment continued to diversify cocoa use, with growing demand for premium and functional foods, cosmetics, and beverages reinforcing underlying demand.
• Supply chain costs were further influenced by labor-related disruptions in logistics hubs and port congestion, thereby pressuring short-term procurement strategies.
• Consumer-facing brands adapted their pricing strategies in anticipation of higher input costs in Q3, likely passing some cost increases through retail channels.
• Looking ahead, risk management and forward contracting are expected to play a larger role as market participants seek to mitigate ongoing currency and freight volatility.
APAC
• The overall quarterly trend for APAC cocoa spot prices mirrored the MEA pattern: a pronounced downward movement through Q2, followed by a modest price recovery in June 2025.
• June developments reflected tightening local inventories and persistent freight cost inflation, underpinning the late-quarter rebound in Cocoa Spot Price.
• Price Forecast for next quarter suggests short-term stabilization, although volatility is likely to persist due to ongoing currency fluctuations and import cost uncertainties.
• Production Cost Trend within the quarter second remained upward, with rising maritime and port charges contributing to higher delivered costs for processors and manufacturers.
• Demand Outlook within the quarter second was shaped by steady growth in urban food processing and increased restocking by major chocolate producers ahead of seasonal demand peaks.
• Regional manufacturers remained sensitive to fluctuations in supply from West Africa, adjusting procurement strategies to mitigate potential delays from port congestion and shipping bottlenecks.
• Some market participants in APAC explored alternative sourcing and inventory buffering, responding to the unpredictable pace of arrivals and spot-market tightness.
• Government trade policy adjustments and currency value shifts added further unpredictability to landed costs, prompting a cautious demand-side response.
• Chocolate and beverage segments maintained above-average consumption growth, offsetting softer demand in secondary applications.
• With spot-market pricing realigning in June, downstream buyers reevaluated Q3 contracting to lock in costs ahead of anticipated supply normalization.
Europe
• Europe’s cocoa spot price trend tracked with global sentiment: a net downward path through April and May, punctuated by a modest rise in June as supply disruptions and speculative trading influenced contract settlements.
• June 2025 was characterized by restocking momentum among key chocolate manufacturers, with improved procurement activity buoying spot prices after prior losses.
• Price Forecast for next quarter hints at moderate recovery potential as demand steadies and the effects of earlier supply disruptions begin to fade in the trading cycle.
• Production Cost Trend within the quarter second was upward, with energy prices, labor, and shipping all contributing to elevated manufacturing outlays.
• Demand Outlook within the quarter second pointed to a partial rebound, especially in the premium chocolate and functional food categories, after a cautious start to the quarter.
• Inventory management strategies shifted toward higher safety stocks, as traders sought to shield against future supply chain disruptions.
• Cost volatility related to currency movements against the West African CFA franc—and euro—continued to complicate sourcing decisions.
• European grindings data indicated a smaller y/y decline compared to APAC, with some help from advance inventory positions carried into Q2.
• Confectionery brands demonstrated selective procurement, prioritizing bulk couverture and key ingredients to secure margins in a fluctuating price environment.
• The region’s robust regulatory environment and premiumization trend supported ongoing market adaptation, with positive implications for spot demand in Q3.
MEA
• The regional trend in MEA was predominantly downward through April and May, with a marked spot price rebound in June 2025 fueled by tightening supply, adverse weather, and increased procurement from global chocolate manufacturers.
• June’s Cocoa Spot Price rally was driven by Ghanaian bean export price recovery, exacerbated by a weakened cedi and surging freight costs with prices settled at USD 9600/MT.
• Price Forecast for next quarter anticipates ongoing volatility, with supply-side risks and speculative trading expected to drive price fluctuations.
• Production Cost Trend within the quarter second climbed steadily due to COCOBOD’s regulatory tightening, higher LID premiums, and currency depreciation effects.
• Demand Outlook within the quarter second strengthened late in the quarter, with restocking by European and U.S. buyers offsetting earlier demand lulls.
• Export volumes remained constrained by regulatory export quotas and shipment delays, which created local supply-tightening and enhanced pricing leverage for sellers.
• Weather-related supply disruptions caused harvest delays and reduced availability of export-grade beans, pressuring international buyers to accelerate procurement.
• Import costs for buyers in Europe and North America were exacerbated by the cedi’s depreciation and imported shipping inflation.
• The export pricing strategy was strongly shaped by government interventions, including the enforcement of the LID scheme and manipulation of available quotas.
• Price volatility intensified as speculative traders responded to heightened supply and political risks in West Africa, further complicating market stability for exporters and importers alike.
FAQ:
1. What is the current price of Cocoa in key regions?
In June 2025, cocoa spot prices showed modest rebounds globally. North America, while MEA markets closed near $9,600/MT driven by Ghanaian export gains. Price corrections followed earlier Q2 declines, aided by restocking and procurement surges, especially from chocolate and beverage sectors, despite ongoing supply volatility and freight disruptions.
2. Who are the top global players influencing the Cocoa market?
Top players in the global cocoa value chain include Barry Callebaut, Cargill, Olam International, and Mondelez International, with strong procurement networks across West Africa, Europe, and Asia. Regulatory bodies like Ghana’s COCOBOD and market speculators also significantly influence price dynamics through quota control, futures trading, and LID policy enforcement.
3. What are the key trends shaping Cocoa prices across regions?
Q2 2025 saw a general downward trend in cocoa prices, followed by a June rebound across all major regions due to supply disruptions, speculative trading, and restocking activity. Cost pressures from freight, currency swings, and regulatory changes intensified volatility. Demand resilience in chocolate and beverage sectors buffered deeper declines, particularly in North America and APAC.
4. What is the short-term forecast for Cocoa pricing?
Cocoa prices are expected to stabilize or slightly rise in Q3 2025 as inventories normalize and seasonal demand strengthens. However, volatility will persist, especially in MEA and APAC, due to currency fluctuations, shipping constraints, and speculative market behavior. Buyers are increasingly engaging in forward contracting and risk management to hedge procurement costs.
