For the Quarter Ending September 2025
MEA
• In Ghana, the Cocoa Price Index fell by 3.41% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tighter supply and weather disruptions.
• The average Cocoa price for the quarter was approximately USD 9087.00/MT, reflecting export parity costs.
• Cocoa Spot Price strengthened on restocking, as buyers anticipated constrained exports and quality-driven sourcing preferences.
• Cocoa Price Forecast indicates gains through Q4 driven by harvest timing, freight costs, and forward buying.
• Cocoa Production Cost Trend shows upward pressure from fertilizer, labor, Living Income Differential influencing export offers.
• Cocoa Demand Outlook remains supportive as seasonal confectionery procurement boosts the Price Index and contracting.
• Cocoa Price Index volatility increased amid low inventories, export demand competition, and port inspection delays.
• Speculative trading amplified price swings while freight cost inflation, container shortages pressured exporters' margins and offers.
Why did the price of Cocoa change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Reduced farm arrivals from weather tightened exportable supply, limiting Tema Harbour volumes while firming offers.
• Currency depreciation and higher freight costs increased transaction costs, pushing export prices upward for foreign buyers.
• Government export quotas, inspection delays, and speculative buying amplified short-term market uncertainty and price volatility.
APAC (Asia-Pacific)
• Cocoa import demand rose as confectionery manufacturers accelerated procurement for upcoming festive and winter seasons.
• Processing activity in Southeast Asia was stable, though grind margins tightened due to higher energy and input costs.
• Weather-related disruptions in major supplying origins constrained regional inventories and delayed shipments.
• Supply chain pressures persisted, with longer lead times and elevated freight charges impacting timely deliveries.
• Forward buying activity from industrial users increased, reflecting expectations of continued tight global cocoa availability.
• Local currency fluctuations against the USD added volatility to import parity values and procurement planning.
• Policy adjustments in key importing nations focused on quality assurance and sustainability compliance.
• Cocoa market sentiment was influenced by restocking behavior and stronger consumer demand for premium chocolate products.
North America
• Cocoa consumption remained steady, driven by sustained retail demand for chocolate and beverage products.
• Grindings data reflected stable processing activity, with manufacturers maintaining inventories amid price uncertainty.
• Weather disruptions in origin countries continued to influence procurement strategies and contract negotiations.
• Consumer demand for ethically sourced and sustainable cocoa products strengthened brand differentiation.
• Rising labor and transportation costs in supply origins contributed to cautious sourcing by importers.
• Hedging and forward contracting increased to mitigate volatility associated with global supply constraints.
• Trade sentiment was supported by consistent seasonal demand, though margin compression persisted for processors.
• Regulatory focus remained on traceability and environmental standards in cocoa supply chains.
Europe
• Cocoa grindings remained strong, supported by robust confectionery demand and tourism-driven retail sales.
• Supply-side tightness persisted as weather disruptions and export bottlenecks limited shipments from origin countries.
• Labor and input cost inflation continued to raise processing expenses and reduce operational margins.
• Sustainability-linked certification and traceability initiatives remained central to European sourcing strategies.
• Seasonal restocking by manufacturers was active ahead of year-end demand peaks.
• Freight cost normalization was observed, though logistics delays still constrained some deliveries.
• Financial hedging activity increased amid persistent volatility and speculative positioning in cocoa futures markets.
• Regional policy discussions centered on sustainable agricultural practices and fair-trade enforcement mechanisms.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The overall quarterly trend for Cocoa Spot Prices in North America was downward, with an average quarter-over-quarter price decrease; however, June 2025 saw a modest rebound, yet steadily as robust procurement by confectionery and beverage sectors helped offset preceding declines.
• June witnessed marked price volatility; disruptions in West African supply chains, shipping delays, and futures market speculation led to a partial spot price recovery by the end of Q2.
• The Price Forecast for next quarter indicates a stabilization or slight upwards correction, as inventories have reached a 10-month high by mid-June, suggesting near-term supply adequacy despite earlier tightness.
• Production Cost Trend within the quarter second showed steady increases, propelled by higher import costs from shipping delays, currency fluctuations, and elevated global freight rates that affected landed costs.
• Demand Outlook within the quarter second indicated resilience in North American markets, particularly as confectionery and ready-to-eat dessert sectors increased procurement ahead of seasonal promotions.
• The region’s robust distribution infrastructure and strong chocolate consumption patterns supported sustained procurement, reducing the impact of global volatility on downstream demand.
• The manufacturing segment continued to diversify cocoa use, with growing demand for premium and functional foods, cosmetics, and beverages reinforcing underlying demand.
• Supply chain costs were further influenced by labor-related disruptions in logistics hubs and port congestion, thereby pressuring short-term procurement strategies.
• Consumer-facing brands adapted their pricing strategies in anticipation of higher input costs in Q3, likely passing some cost increases through retail channels.
• Looking ahead, risk management and forward contracting are expected to play a larger role as market participants seek to mitigate ongoing currency and freight volatility.
APAC
• The overall quarterly trend for APAC cocoa spot prices mirrored the MEA pattern: a pronounced downward movement through Q2, followed by a modest price recovery in June 2025.
• June developments reflected tightening local inventories and persistent freight cost inflation, underpinning the late-quarter rebound in Cocoa Spot Price.
• Price Forecast for next quarter suggests short-term stabilization, although volatility is likely to persist due to ongoing currency fluctuations and import cost uncertainties.
• Production Cost Trend within the quarter second remained upward, with rising maritime and port charges contributing to higher delivered costs for processors and manufacturers.
• Demand Outlook within the quarter second was shaped by steady growth in urban food processing and increased restocking by major chocolate producers ahead of seasonal demand peaks.
• Regional manufacturers remained sensitive to fluctuations in supply from West Africa, adjusting procurement strategies to mitigate potential delays from port congestion and shipping bottlenecks.
• Some market participants in APAC explored alternative sourcing and inventory buffering, responding to the unpredictable pace of arrivals and spot-market tightness.
• Government trade policy adjustments and currency value shifts added further unpredictability to landed costs, prompting a cautious demand-side response.
• Chocolate and beverage segments maintained above-average consumption growth, offsetting softer demand in secondary applications.
• With spot-market pricing realigning in June, downstream buyers reevaluated Q3 contracting to lock in costs ahead of anticipated supply normalization.
Europe
• Europe’s cocoa spot price trend tracked with global sentiment: a net downward path through April and May, punctuated by a modest rise in June as supply disruptions and speculative trading influenced contract settlements.
• June 2025 was characterized by restocking momentum among key chocolate manufacturers, with improved procurement activity buoying spot prices after prior losses.
• Price Forecast for next quarter hints at moderate recovery potential as demand steadies and the effects of earlier supply disruptions begin to fade in the trading cycle.
• Production Cost Trend within the quarter second was upward, with energy prices, labor, and shipping all contributing to elevated manufacturing outlays.
• Demand Outlook within the quarter second pointed to a partial rebound, especially in the premium chocolate and functional food categories, after a cautious start to the quarter.
• Inventory management strategies shifted toward higher safety stocks, as traders sought to shield against future supply chain disruptions.
• Cost volatility related to currency movements against the West African CFA franc—and euro—continued to complicate sourcing decisions.
• European grindings data indicated a smaller y/y decline compared to APAC, with some help from advance inventory positions carried into Q2.
• Confectionery brands demonstrated selective procurement, prioritizing bulk couverture and key ingredients to secure margins in a fluctuating price environment.
• The region’s robust regulatory environment and premiumization trend supported ongoing market adaptation, with positive implications for spot demand in Q3.
MEA
• The regional trend in MEA was predominantly downward through April and May, with a marked spot price rebound in June 2025 fueled by tightening supply, adverse weather, and increased procurement from global chocolate manufacturers.
• June’s Cocoa Spot Price rally was driven by Ghanaian bean export price recovery, exacerbated by a weakened cedi and surging freight costs with prices settled at USD 9600/MT.
• Price Forecast for next quarter anticipates ongoing volatility, with supply-side risks and speculative trading expected to drive price fluctuations.
• Production Cost Trend within the quarter second climbed steadily due to COCOBOD’s regulatory tightening, higher LID premiums, and currency depreciation effects.
• Demand Outlook within the quarter second strengthened late in the quarter, with restocking by European and U.S. buyers offsetting earlier demand lulls.
• Export volumes remained constrained by regulatory export quotas and shipment delays, which created local supply-tightening and enhanced pricing leverage for sellers.
• Weather-related supply disruptions caused harvest delays and reduced availability of export-grade beans, pressuring international buyers to accelerate procurement.
• Import costs for buyers in Europe and North America were exacerbated by the cedi’s depreciation and imported shipping inflation.
• The export pricing strategy was strongly shaped by government interventions, including the enforcement of the LID scheme and manipulation of available quotas.
• Price volatility intensified as speculative traders responded to heightened supply and political risks in West Africa, further complicating market stability for exporters and importers alike.
