For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In United States, Cocoa Powder Price Index fell Q3 2025, driven by declining cocoa bean prices.
• Cocoa Powder production costs decreased in Q3 2025, due to downward cocoa bean price trends.
• Rising PPI at 2.6% in August 2025 indicated increasing input costs for manufacturers.
• Cocoa Powder demand mixed in Q3 2025; strong retail sales contrasted declining chocolate candy volumes.
• Weakened global cocoa demand and declining consumer confidence in September 2025 impacted discretionary spending.
• Sluggish industrial production at 0.1% in September 2025 suggested limited food manufacturing expansion.
• High CPI at 3.0% and 4.3% unemployment in September 2025 tempered consumer purchasing.
• US port cocoa inventories tightened during Q3 2025, reaching an 8-month low by November.
• Robust West African crop expectations strengthened Q3 2025, influencing future global cocoa supply.
Why did the price of Cocoa Powder change in September 2025 in North America?
• Cocoa bean prices fell substantially in September 2025, directly reducing feedstock costs.
• North American chocolate candy sales volumes declined by September 2025, reducing end-use demand.
• Consumer confidence declined in September 2025, dampening discretionary spending.
APAC
• In China, the Cocoa Powder Price Index fell in Q3 2025, influenced by declining cocoa bean prices.
• Cocoa Powder production costs decreased through Q3 2025, as producer prices declined 2.3% year-on-year in September.
• Global cocoa demand weakened in Q3 2025, with Asia cocoa grindings plunging significantly.
• Consumer purchasing power was reduced by a 0.3% year-on-year CPI decline in September 2025.
• Industrial production increased 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, but the Manufacturing Index contracted.
• ICE-monitored cocoa inventories tightened in Q3 2025; global stocks-to-grindings ratio was low.
• A 5.2% unemployment rate and pessimistic consumer confidence (89.6 index) dampened spending in September 2025.
• Ivorian farmers' shipments to ports declined in Q3 2025, causing sluggish cocoa arrivals.
• The Cocoa Powder Price Forecast suggests continued pressure from weak demand and ample raw material supply.
Why did the price of Cocoa Powder change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Cocoa bean prices declined significantly through Q3 2025, reducing raw material costs for Cocoa Powder.
• Producer prices fell 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating lower input costs.
• Weakened global cocoa demand and plunging Asia grindings in Q3 2025 pressured prices downward.
Europe
• In Germany, the Cocoa Powder Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by weak demand and lower input costs.
• Cocoa Powder production costs trended downward in Q3 2025, influenced by declining cocoa bean prices and lower producer prices.
• Cocoa Powder demand outlook was weak in Q3 2025, with European grindings declining and industrial production contracting.
• Global cocoa inventories began to recover in Q3 2025, with an estimated surplus for the 2024/25 season.
• Optimism for improved West African cocoa production prevailed in Q3 2025, supported by favorable weather.
• German industrial electricity prices remained elevated throughout Q3 2025, impacting production overheads.
• Rising consumer prices by 2.4% in September 2025 and stable unemployment limited discretionary spending.
• Germany's Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, alongside a 1.0% industrial production decline in September.
Why did the price of Cocoa Powder change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Weak European cocoa grindings and a 1.0% decline in industrial production reduced demand.
• Declining cocoa bean prices and a 1.7% decrease in producer prices eased input costs.
• Recovering global cocoa inventories and improved West African production alleviated supply concerns.
