For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Coconut Oil Price Index showed modest quarter-over-quarter gains, reflecting steady import activity and seasonal demand patterns.
• Coconut Oil Spot Price movements eased at times as South American and Asian export offers, along with inventory adjustments, influenced landed costs.
• Coconut Oil Price Forecast indicates gradual recovery toward year-end, supported by restocking trends and tightening copra availability.
• Coconut Oil Production Cost Trend rose due to firmer copra quotations and shipping cost pressures, maintaining elevated landed costs.
• Coconut Oil Demand Outlook remains stable with steady food processing and personal care consumption, though buyers remain cautious amid market volatility.
• Coconut Oil Price Index volatility reflected swings in export offers, freight rates, and shifts in North American inventories.
• Port operations were generally efficient, yet container shortages and rising freight costs continued to pressure import logistics.
Why did the price of Coconut Oil change in September 2025 in North America?
• Reduced export offers from South American and Asian suppliers, coupled with inventory adjustments, contributed to easing landed import costs.
• Currency fluctuations, including relative strength of the US dollar, influenced import pricing, partially offsetting cost pressures.
• Rising freight rates and container scarcity added logistical pressure, but efficient port operations limited severe supply disruptions.
APAC
• In Indonesia, the Coconut Oil Price Index rose by 0.40% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting supply tightness and export demand.
• The average Coconut Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 2691.67/MT based on reported levels.
• Coconut Oil Spot Price weakness contrasted with rising Coconut Oil Production Cost Trend due to higher copra.
• Coconut Oil Price Forecast signals modest volatility with sequential monthly oscillations amid seasonal restocking and export order fluctuations.
• Domestic procurement slowed, weakening the Coconut Oil Demand Outlook despite a firm Price Index sustained by selective exporters.
• Inventory releases and accelerated processing pressured spot liquidity, while export demand intermittently supported the Coconut Oil Price Index.
• Higher freight and port congestion expectations elevated forward offers, influencing the Coconut Oil Spot Price and trader hedging.
• Mill operational constraints and El Niño yield impacts amplified Coconut Oil Production Cost Trend, tightening supplies for exporters.
Why did the price of Coconut Oil change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Elevated copra and raw coconut costs raised processing expenses, constraining supply and pressuring margins significantly.
• Seasonal holidays and tariffs reduced international procurement, weakening export demand and depressing spot transactional volumes.
• Port congestion, freight fluctuations, and inventory releases created timing mismatches, amplifying short-term price volatility across markets.
Europe
• In Netherlands, the Coconut Oil Price Index rose by 0.4469% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting modest July gains.
• The average Coconut Oil price this quarter was approximately USD 2771.67/MT from CFR Rotterdam imports
• Coconut Oil Spot Price eased as South Asian export offers and inventories pressured landed values
• Coconut Oil Price Forecast indicates recovery toward year-end driven by restocking and tighter copra availability
• Coconut Oil Production Cost Trend rose as copra shortages and firmer export quotations increased costs
• Coconut Oil Demand Outlook stable with steady food and personal care offtake, buyers remain cautious
• Coconut Oil Price Index volatility reflected export quotation swings, currency movements, shifting European inventory levels
• Port operations efficient supporting imports, though container shortages and rising freight still pressured landed costs
Why did the price of Coconut Oil change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Reduced export offers from South Asian suppliers and inventories triggered softening in landed import costs
• Currency movements and stronger US dollar earlier raised costs, but Euro appreciation eased purchasing pressure
• Freight rate increases and container scarcity marginally pressured logistics, yet efficient ports limited supply disruptions
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Coconut Oil Price Index in the US exhibited an upward trend in July 2025, continuing the trajectory observed in European markets amid tighter global supply and elevated input costs.
• The Spot Price remained firm throughout the month, supported by reduced global exports, especially from Indonesia and the Philippines, and tightened inventories due to logistical constraints and delayed shipments.
• The Price Forecast for August 2025 indicates continued firmness, with prices expected to stay elevated due to global procurement restocking before Q4 and constrained origin-side availability.
• The Production Cost Trend remained high, influenced by strong raw coconut prices in key Southeast Asian origins, which impacted US importers' landed costs and pricing structures.
• The Demand Outlook in the US was stable to firm, particularly from the food processing and cosmetics sectors, as buyers resumed procurement to cover Q3 requirements following muted activity in June.
• In July 2025, prices increased in the US primarily due to reduced coconut oil shipments from Indonesia and the Philippines, where rising input costs and adverse weather disrupted production and exports.
• Inventory and supply-demand dynamics were tight, with limited inbound shipments and slow customs clearance leading to a drawdown in stock levels and delayed downstream deliveries.
• Regional cues, including Europe’s firm prices and Asia’s production slowdown, influenced US buyers to secure available cargoes early, reinforcing bullish sentiment and price support in the North American market.
• Why did the price change in July 2025?
• The price increase in July was driven by tight global supply chains, expensive input costs at origin, reduced export volumes, and stronger restocking demand in the US, following a price correction in June.
Europe
• The Price Index for Coconut Oil in the Netherlands rebounded in July 2025 following a sharp 4.20% decline in June, reversing the previous bearish sentiment and indicating a short-term bullish correction.
• The Spot Price for Coconut Oil CFR Rotterdam stood at USD 2850/MT in June 2025, down significantly from May, but observed an upward trend in July owing to tightening regional inventory levels and fresh buying activity.
• The Price Forecast for August 2025 indicates continued firming in prices, supported by anticipated restocking demand, potential tightening in global coconut oil supply, and improved sentiment in the edible oil complex.
• The Production Cost Trend remained broadly steady in July; however, expectations of rising copra prices and export levies in Southeast Asia have begun to pressure upstream costs, contributing to the recent price increase in Europe.
• The Demand Outlook improved slightly in July, particularly from the personal care and food sectors, as buyers who delayed purchases in June amid falling prices resumed procurement to replenish inventories, encouraged by the Euro's relative strength against the US Dollar.
• Why did the price change in July 2025?
• The sharp price recovery in the Netherlands during July 2025 was driven by renewed buyer confidence, tighter local inventories after cautious June procurement, and supportive global fundamentals including firmer offers from Southeast Asian exporters and continued interest in alternative vegetable oils.
• Inventory levels in July were relatively low due to conservative procurement in the previous month, leading to accelerated buying by end users and distributors, contributing to firmer prices despite only marginal improvements in logistics and freight costs.
APAC
• The Price Index for Crude Coconut Oil in Indonesia reversed its downward trajectory in July 2025 after a sharp correction in June, reflecting a shift in market sentiment following stronger domestic constraints and renewed regional buying.
• The Spot Price for Crude Coconut Oil FOB Tanjung Priok was USD 2765/MT in June 2025, marking a notable decline from May due to poor price competitiveness caused by elevated coconut prices. However, prices trended higher in July amid tightening supply.
• The Price Forecast for August 2025 points toward a moderately bullish outlook, with prices expected to rise further on the back of government intervention efforts, limited raw coconut availability, and recovering international demand from regional APAC markets.
• The Production Cost Trend in July remained elevated due to persistently high coconut prices and logistical challenges caused by scattered rainfall and underperforming coconut plantations. However, producers implemented limited production cuts to manage costs and stabilize margins.
• The Demand Outlook improved slightly in July as buyers across Southeast Asia resumed purchases, sensing price bottoms from June’s dip. Renewed interest from the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand supported exports, while domestic consumption also picked up modestly.
• Why did the price change in July 2025?
• Prices increased in July due to constrained raw coconut availability, reduced output from processing facilities, and improved export interest after June’s low-price window. Additionally, expectations of a fresh coconut export duty created bullish pressure, supporting the price recovery.
• Inventory and supply-demand dynamics remained tight in July. Producers held back stocks in anticipation of better margins, while traders sought to cover forward positions before any further regulatory changes. Despite high costs, active restocking by key buyers lifted spot market volumes.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the North American Coconut Oil market experienced fluctuating prices, influenced by variable supply-side conditions, shifting demand trends, and broader macroeconomic factors. January began with relatively high prices, reflecting the residual impact of late-2024 supply disruptions and elevated procurement activity from the food, pharmaceutical, and cosmetics sectors. Tight inventory levels, coupled with continued shipping delays from Southeast Asia and weather-related crop concerns, maintained pressure on supply chains, contributing to firm pricing sentiment.
By February, prices adjusted as logistical constraints began to ease and some production facilities resumed partial operations. Improved freight availability and moderated demand from downstream industries introduced more balance into the market. However, fluctuating currency exchange rates and inconsistent export offers from key origins such as the Philippines and Indonesia introduced pricing variability, with importers adjusting strategies to navigate cost volatility.
March saw further pricing fluctuations, as demand softened due to slower offtake from non-essential manufacturing sectors and reduced spot buying activity. Meanwhile, improved port throughput and declining container rates from Asia supported more competitive landed costs. Still, uncertain weather patterns in producing regions and geopolitical trade discussions sustained an atmosphere of caution among buyers. Overall, Q1 2025 for the North American Coconut Oil market was marked by a dynamic pricing environment shaped by transitional supply recovery, fluctuating demand, and complex cost variables.
Asia Pacific
The Indonesian Coconut Oil market experienced a volatile first quarter in 2025, marked by shifting supply-demand fundamentals and evolving macroeconomic conditions. January opened on a strong note, as coconut oil export prices rose in tandem with similar trends seen in the Philippines. Tightening inventories, heightened global demand, and raw material cost fluctuations supported bullish price sentiment, with exporters benefiting from improved margins amid favorable currency and trade policy dynamics.
However, February reversed this trend, registering a -0.60% price decline due to oversupply and muted downstream activity. Elevated domestic inventories and a historic dip in the Consumer Price Index created deflationary pressures, prompting reduced procurement from sectors like oleochemicals and food processing.
By March, the market rebounded sharply on the back of El Nino-driven production cuts and persistent pest challenges, which curtailed coconut availability. Despite a weakening Manufacturing PMI and inflation uptick to 1.03%, strong global demand from the US, EU, and China sustained upward price momentum. The quarter closed with a net positive trend, underscoring the Indonesian market’s sensitivity to climatic variables, international offtake patterns, and internal economic shifts. Stakeholders will need to maintain adaptive sourcing strategies as weather volatility and global macroeconomic forces continue to shape pricing trajectories.
Europe
The European Coconut Oil market, with the Netherlands as a key trading hub, exhibited a volatile pricing trend through Q1 2025. January saw sharp price increases due to climate-related supply disruptions in major origins like the Philippines and Indonesia, where prolonged La Niña effects severely reduced yields. This, combined with geopolitical tensions and higher freight costs, pushed import prices upward. Rising demand across food, cosmetics, and biofuel sectors further intensified pricing pressure, resulting in elevated procurement costs for European buyers.
However, this bullish momentum reversed in February, as falling freight rates and reduced export prices from Asian producers led to a market correction. Despite modest improvements in Dutch manufacturing data, overall industrial activity remained subdued, limiting consumption and creating a surplus environment. Inflation continued to suppress purchasing power, weakening demand from key end-use segments.
By March, coconut oil prices rebounded significantly. Higher global production costs, tight supply, and elevated export offers from origin markets, alongside a weaker euro, increased landed prices. Easing inflation to 3.7 percent supported a firmer domestic demand outlook, particularly for sustainably sourced oils. The quarter concluded with net price gains, underpinned by persistent supply concerns and renewed buying interest, highlighting the importance of strategic sourcing in managing volatility across European markets.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the North American Coconut Oil market displayed exceptional strength, with prices mirroring those in the European region. This surge was driven by significant supply chain disruptions, increased industrial demand, and adverse weather conditions that hindered coconut oil production.
These factors led to sustained high prices throughout the quarter, with notable price momentum in the northern region. The market faced considerable supply-side pressures, exacerbated by global logistics issues and the closure of manufacturing facilities, resulting in tight inventories. Simultaneously, strong demand from the pharmaceutical and cosmetics sectors fuelled aggressive procurement efforts, further tightening supply.
The appreciation of the US dollar against major currencies added another layer of pricing pressure, with higher export costs and reinforcing the upward price trend, keeping the import prices on the northerly side. Combined with elevated transportation expenses, these factors contributed to a bullish market outlook.
Asia Pacific
In the fourth quarter of 2024, coconut oil prices in the Philippines fluctuated due to a mix of supply and demand dynamics. In October, prices slightly declined, driven by the government’s initiative to plant 100 million coconut seedlings, expected to increase production and potentially lead to an oversupply. Additionally, rising exports contributed to the global supply increase, further pressuring prices. Global competition from alternative edible oils and subdued demand added to the price volatility. However, by November, export prices surged due to supply constraints, including the aging coconut palms and adverse weather conditions like Typhoon Man-yi, which limited production. Strong international demand from industries such as food, cosmetics, and biofuels, along with disruptions in global edible oil markets, pushed prices higher. Inflationary pressures on labor, fertilizers, and logistics also raised production costs, while a weaker Philippine Peso made exports more competitive. In December, export prices remained elevated due to continued supply limitations, stagnant production, and strong global demand, particularly from the USA, the Netherlands, and China. Despite ongoing industry revitalization efforts, the market faced short-term challenges, supporting an optimistic pricing trajectory.
Europe
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2024, the coconut oil market saw significant price increases due to various supply and demand factors. In October, a shortage in copra supply, worsened by adverse weather and lower yields, limited availability in major producing regions. Additionally, rising production costs, including labour and energy, added further pressure. On the demand side, steady consumption from the food, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical industries kept demand high. Currency fluctuations, along with rising export and freight costs, made coconut oil more expensive for global buyers. In November, supply constraints in the Philippines and Indonesia, coupled with adverse weather and rising production costs, drove import prices higher. The growing demand from multiple sectors further exacerbated the situation. By December, prices continued to climb due to global supply challenges, including stagnant output in the Philippines and increased competition from other importing regions. Logistical issues, currency fluctuations, and higher input costs contributed to the escalating prices, highlighting the vulnerabilities in the coconut oil supply chain.
