For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Coconut Oil Price Index in the US exhibited an upward trend in July 2025, continuing the trajectory observed in European markets amid tighter global supply and elevated input costs.
• The Spot Price remained firm throughout the month, supported by reduced global exports, especially from Indonesia and the Philippines, and tightened inventories due to logistical constraints and delayed shipments.
• The Price Forecast for August 2025 indicates continued firmness, with prices expected to stay elevated due to global procurement restocking before Q4 and constrained origin-side availability.
• The Production Cost Trend remained high, influenced by strong raw coconut prices in key Southeast Asian origins, which impacted US importers' landed costs and pricing structures.
• The Demand Outlook in the US was stable to firm, particularly from the food processing and cosmetics sectors, as buyers resumed procurement to cover Q3 requirements following muted activity in June.
• In July 2025, prices increased in the US primarily due to reduced coconut oil shipments from Indonesia and the Philippines, where rising input costs and adverse weather disrupted production and exports.
• Inventory and supply-demand dynamics were tight, with limited inbound shipments and slow customs clearance leading to a drawdown in stock levels and delayed downstream deliveries.
• Regional cues, including Europe’s firm prices and Asia’s production slowdown, influenced US buyers to secure available cargoes early, reinforcing bullish sentiment and price support in the North American market.
• Why did the price change in July 2025? The price increase in July was driven by tight global supply chains, expensive input costs at origin, reduced export volumes, and stronger restocking demand in the US, following a price correction in June.
Europe
• The Price Index for Coconut Oil in the Netherlands rebounded in July 2025 following a sharp 4.20% decline in June, reversing the previous bearish sentiment and indicating a short-term bullish correction.
• The Spot Price for Coconut Oil CFR Rotterdam stood at USD 2850/MT in June 2025, down significantly from May, but observed an upward trend in July owing to tightening regional inventory levels and fresh buying activity.
• The Price Forecast for August 2025 indicates continued firming in prices, supported by anticipated restocking demand, potential tightening in global coconut oil supply, and improved sentiment in the edible oil complex.
• The Production Cost Trend remained broadly steady in July; however, expectations of rising copra prices and export levies in Southeast Asia have begun to pressure upstream costs, contributing to the recent price increase in Europe.
• The Demand Outlook improved slightly in July, particularly from the personal care and food sectors, as buyers who delayed purchases in June amid falling prices resumed procurement to replenish inventories, encouraged by the Euro's relative strength against the US Dollar.
• Why did the price change in July 2025? The sharp price recovery in the Netherlands during July 2025 was driven by renewed buyer confidence, tighter local inventories after cautious June procurement, and supportive global fundamentals including firmer offers from Southeast Asian exporters and continued interest in alternative vegetable oils.
• Inventory levels in July were relatively low due to conservative procurement in the previous month, leading to accelerated buying by end users and distributors, contributing to firmer prices despite only marginal improvements in logistics and freight costs.
APAC
• The Price Index for Crude Coconut Oil in Indonesia reversed its downward trajectory in July 2025 after a sharp correction in June, reflecting a shift in market sentiment following stronger domestic constraints and renewed regional buying.
• The Spot Price for Crude Coconut Oil FOB Tanjung Priok was USD 2765/MT in June 2025, marking a notable decline from May due to poor price competitiveness caused by elevated coconut prices. However, prices trended higher in July amid tightening supply.
• The Price Forecast for August 2025 points toward a moderately bullish outlook, with prices expected to rise further on the back of government intervention efforts, limited raw coconut availability, and recovering international demand from regional APAC markets.
• The Production Cost Trend in July remained elevated due to persistently high coconut prices and logistical challenges caused by scattered rainfall and underperforming coconut plantations. However, producers implemented limited production cuts to manage costs and stabilize margins.
• The Demand Outlook improved slightly in July as buyers across Southeast Asia resumed purchases, sensing price bottoms from June’s dip. Renewed interest from the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand supported exports, while domestic consumption also picked up modestly.
• Why did the price change in July 2025? Prices increased in July due to constrained raw coconut availability, reduced output from processing facilities, and improved export interest after June’s low-price window. Additionally, expectations of a fresh coconut export duty created bullish pressure, supporting the price recovery.
• Inventory and supply-demand dynamics remained tight in July. Producers held back stocks in anticipation of better margins, while traders sought to cover forward positions before any further regulatory changes. Despite high costs, active restocking by key buyers lifted spot market volumes.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the North American Coconut Oil market experienced fluctuating prices, influenced by variable supply-side conditions, shifting demand trends, and broader macroeconomic factors. January began with relatively high prices, reflecting the residual impact of late-2024 supply disruptions and elevated procurement activity from the food, pharmaceutical, and cosmetics sectors. Tight inventory levels, coupled with continued shipping delays from Southeast Asia and weather-related crop concerns, maintained pressure on supply chains, contributing to firm pricing sentiment.
By February, prices adjusted as logistical constraints began to ease and some production facilities resumed partial operations. Improved freight availability and moderated demand from downstream industries introduced more balance into the market. However, fluctuating currency exchange rates and inconsistent export offers from key origins such as the Philippines and Indonesia introduced pricing variability, with importers adjusting strategies to navigate cost volatility.
March saw further pricing fluctuations, as demand softened due to slower offtake from non-essential manufacturing sectors and reduced spot buying activity. Meanwhile, improved port throughput and declining container rates from Asia supported more competitive landed costs. Still, uncertain weather patterns in producing regions and geopolitical trade discussions sustained an atmosphere of caution among buyers. Overall, Q1 2025 for the North American Coconut Oil market was marked by a dynamic pricing environment shaped by transitional supply recovery, fluctuating demand, and complex cost variables.
Asia Pacific
The Indonesian Coconut Oil market experienced a volatile first quarter in 2025, marked by shifting supply-demand fundamentals and evolving macroeconomic conditions. January opened on a strong note, as coconut oil export prices rose in tandem with similar trends seen in the Philippines. Tightening inventories, heightened global demand, and raw material cost fluctuations supported bullish price sentiment, with exporters benefiting from improved margins amid favorable currency and trade policy dynamics.
However, February reversed this trend, registering a -0.60% price decline due to oversupply and muted downstream activity. Elevated domestic inventories and a historic dip in the Consumer Price Index created deflationary pressures, prompting reduced procurement from sectors like oleochemicals and food processing.
By March, the market rebounded sharply on the back of El Nino-driven production cuts and persistent pest challenges, which curtailed coconut availability. Despite a weakening Manufacturing PMI and inflation uptick to 1.03%, strong global demand from the US, EU, and China sustained upward price momentum. The quarter closed with a net positive trend, underscoring the Indonesian market’s sensitivity to climatic variables, international offtake patterns, and internal economic shifts. Stakeholders will need to maintain adaptive sourcing strategies as weather volatility and global macroeconomic forces continue to shape pricing trajectories.
Europe
The European Coconut Oil market, with the Netherlands as a key trading hub, exhibited a volatile pricing trend through Q1 2025. January saw sharp price increases due to climate-related supply disruptions in major origins like the Philippines and Indonesia, where prolonged La Niña effects severely reduced yields. This, combined with geopolitical tensions and higher freight costs, pushed import prices upward. Rising demand across food, cosmetics, and biofuel sectors further intensified pricing pressure, resulting in elevated procurement costs for European buyers.
However, this bullish momentum reversed in February, as falling freight rates and reduced export prices from Asian producers led to a market correction. Despite modest improvements in Dutch manufacturing data, overall industrial activity remained subdued, limiting consumption and creating a surplus environment. Inflation continued to suppress purchasing power, weakening demand from key end-use segments.
By March, coconut oil prices rebounded significantly. Higher global production costs, tight supply, and elevated export offers from origin markets, alongside a weaker euro, increased landed prices. Easing inflation to 3.7 percent supported a firmer domestic demand outlook, particularly for sustainably sourced oils. The quarter concluded with net price gains, underpinned by persistent supply concerns and renewed buying interest, highlighting the importance of strategic sourcing in managing volatility across European markets.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the North American Coconut Oil market displayed exceptional strength, with prices mirroring those in the European region. This surge was driven by significant supply chain disruptions, increased industrial demand, and adverse weather conditions that hindered coconut oil production.
These factors led to sustained high prices throughout the quarter, with notable price momentum in the northern region. The market faced considerable supply-side pressures, exacerbated by global logistics issues and the closure of manufacturing facilities, resulting in tight inventories. Simultaneously, strong demand from the pharmaceutical and cosmetics sectors fuelled aggressive procurement efforts, further tightening supply.
The appreciation of the US dollar against major currencies added another layer of pricing pressure, with higher export costs and reinforcing the upward price trend, keeping the import prices on the northerly side. Combined with elevated transportation expenses, these factors contributed to a bullish market outlook.
Asia Pacific
In the fourth quarter of 2024, coconut oil prices in the Philippines fluctuated due to a mix of supply and demand dynamics. In October, prices slightly declined, driven by the government’s initiative to plant 100 million coconut seedlings, expected to increase production and potentially lead to an oversupply. Additionally, rising exports contributed to the global supply increase, further pressuring prices. Global competition from alternative edible oils and subdued demand added to the price volatility. However, by November, export prices surged due to supply constraints, including the aging coconut palms and adverse weather conditions like Typhoon Man-yi, which limited production. Strong international demand from industries such as food, cosmetics, and biofuels, along with disruptions in global edible oil markets, pushed prices higher. Inflationary pressures on labor, fertilizers, and logistics also raised production costs, while a weaker Philippine Peso made exports more competitive. In December, export prices remained elevated due to continued supply limitations, stagnant production, and strong global demand, particularly from the USA, the Netherlands, and China. Despite ongoing industry revitalization efforts, the market faced short-term challenges, supporting an optimistic pricing trajectory.
Europe
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2024, the coconut oil market saw significant price increases due to various supply and demand factors. In October, a shortage in copra supply, worsened by adverse weather and lower yields, limited availability in major producing regions. Additionally, rising production costs, including labour and energy, added further pressure. On the demand side, steady consumption from the food, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical industries kept demand high. Currency fluctuations, along with rising export and freight costs, made coconut oil more expensive for global buyers. In November, supply constraints in the Philippines and Indonesia, coupled with adverse weather and rising production costs, drove import prices higher. The growing demand from multiple sectors further exacerbated the situation. By December, prices continued to climb due to global supply challenges, including stagnant output in the Philippines and increased competition from other importing regions. Logistical issues, currency fluctuations, and higher input costs contributed to the escalating prices, highlighting the vulnerabilities in the coconut oil supply chain.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American Coconut Oil market demonstrated remarkable strength throughout Q3 2024, with prices reaching a higher level similar to that of the European region. Amid significant supply chain constraints, robust industrial demand, and adverse weather conditions affecting the overall coconut oil production continued to impact the trading sentiments concerning coconut oil, thereby supporting continuous higher prices.
The market dynamics were pronounced in the northern region, persistent upward price momentum dominated trading sentiment. The quarter was characterized by substantial supply-side pressures, as global logistics disruptions and manufacturing facility closures created significant inventory constraints across the region. This supply tightness coincided with heightened demand from key end-use sectors, particularly the pharmaceutical and cosmetics industries, which maintained aggressive procurement strategies to secure volumes.
Adding to the complex market environment, the depreciation of the US dollar against major currencies introduced additional pricing pressures, effectively increasing import costs and influencing broader market sentiment. This currency impact, combined with elevated transportation costs, contributed to the overall bullish price trajectory.
Asia Pacific
The third quarter of 2024 has been a period of increasing prices for Coconut Oil in the APAC region, with the Philippines experiencing the most significant price changes. Several factors have influenced the market, including rising demand from end-users, improved manufacturing margins, and favorable procurement conditions. Additionally, the stabilization of prices, combined with strong demand, has created a positive trading environment. The quarter recorded a 14% price change from the previous quarter, reflecting a steady upward trend. Overall, the market faces a complex interplay of supply and demand factors, creating a dynamic pricing environment. On the supply side, production challenges in major producing countries such as adverse weather conditions, including typhoons and droughts, could have severely impacted the coconut yields. Supported by this, disease outbreaks, such as coconut leaf wilt, further threaten production levels. Coupled with this, rising costs for essential inputs like fertilizers and labor, these factors contribute to supply constraints and upward price pressure. Additionally, coconut oil is emerging as a preferred alternative to palm oil, which faces environmental scrutiny. With respect to the demand side, downstream purchasing sentiments concerning coconut oil fluctuated between moderate and high levels, reflecting the complex interplay of market forces. A notable uptick in purchasing activity was observed, particularly from end-user oleochemical industries, indicating growing confidence among market participants. Transactions took on an optimistic tone, supported by ease in global freight costs. The industry's resilience was further bolstered by a decrease in freight charges, which enhanced the momentum of higher exports. As a result, throughout the quarter, the overall trend in Coconut Oil pricing has been positive, reflecting a healthy demand-supply balance and favorable market conditions.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the European Coconut oil market witnessed a substantial uptrend in prices concerning coconut oil, driven by a myriad of factors. High global demand, supply constraints, and currency fluctuations played significant roles in shaping the pricing landscape. The market grappled with disruptions such as production delays, adverse weather conditions, and trade disputes, contributing to the overall price surge. Buyers across the importing nations consistently stocked up on additional quantities, which was further affected by delivery delays from export nations. Additionally, seizing upon the surge in demand, growing food security concerns, due to potential global crop yield reductions, led to increased stockpiling behavior, further driving up demand, resulting in a continuous rise in its prices. Supporting this, both input costs and output prices experienced inflation rates that aligned closely with long-term averages, reinforcing the market's stability and predictability. This favorable cost environment allowed suppliers to engage in strategic pricing adjustments, ensuring profitability while maintaining competitiveness. As a result within the European region, the Netherlands experienced the most significant price changes, with a recorded 19% increase from the previous quarter of Q3.
FAQ’s
1. Why did Coconut Oil prices rise in the Netherlands in July 2025 despite a decline in June?
Prices in the Netherlands rebounded in July due to tighter export availability from major producers like the Philippines and Indonesia. While June saw a 4.20% drop driven by lower import costs and stable demand, July’s increase was triggered by origin-side supply constraints, higher production costs, and restocking activity by European buyers anticipating further market tightening.
2. What are the main factors influencing Coconut Oil prices in the United States during July 2025?
In July, U.S. Coconut Oil prices increased, primarily due to global supply disruptions and strong restocking demand. Delayed shipments from Southeast Asia, elevated raw material costs, and ripple effects from firmer European prices pushed North American prices upward. Domestic inventories also tightened, reinforcing the bullish trend.
3. Why are Coconut Oil prices in the Philippines (APAC) showing signs of volatility in mid-2025?
The Philippines, a major coconut oil exporter, experienced erratic price movements due to inconsistent copra output, weather-related disruptions, and fluctuating domestic processing activity. While prices remained relatively high in July, they were under pressure from intermittent supply surges and moderated overseas demand from key markets like the EU and the US.
4. How did currency fluctuations impact Coconut Oil pricing in Europe during Q2 and Q3 2025?
The depreciation of the U.S. Dollar against the Euro improved import affordability for European buyers during Q2, helping dampen price spikes despite rising origin costs. However, as global supply tightened in July, the positive exchange rate effect was insufficient to prevent price escalation in the Netherlands and broader EU market.
5. Is Coconut Oil demand weakening or strengthening across key global regions as of July 2025?
Demand remained stable to firm across all major regions in July. In Europe, demand from food and personal care sectors held steady despite recent price volatility. The U.S. market saw increased procurement as buyers restocked ahead of Q4. In APAC, demand was regionally mixed, with robust export activity but cautious downstream consumption amid high domestic prices.
