For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the prices of coconut oil across the North American region followed the market trajectory of exporting nations, particularly in APAC. Prices rose considerably throughout the quarter due to increased downstream demand, driven by efforts to replenish inventories amid growing advocacy for the biofuels sector. Furthermore, in response to increased demand, market participants raised prices to boost profitability, selling the goods at a relatively higher cost than projected.
Adding complexity to this scenario are geopolitical tensions and trade interruptions, which have further compounded market sentiments. Export challenges, such as the redirection of shipping routes via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Red Sea, have triggered a chain reaction of consequences, including heightened shipping costs, order cancellations, and delays in container movement. As a result, suppliers and traders continue to grapple with a limited coconut oil supply, insufficient to meet the continuously rising regional inquiries from downstream sectors, particularly from the food and personal care industries.
Furthermore, as part of this strategic pricing maneuver to optimize profits amid a robust US dollar, there are lingering concerns regarding possible price hikes stemming from Mississippi River bottlenecks caused by weather conditions. It's imperative to address potential delays and related expenses to prevent trade disruptions and export delivery interruptions. Consequently, market players in the US have intensified inquiries to exporting countries, exacerbating upward price pressure.
Asia Pacific
Coconut oil prices in the APAC region during Q1 2024 exhibited an overall optimistic trend, influenced by significant factors. In the Philippines, which saw the most notable price changes, there was a substantial increase of over 4 percent compared to the previous quarter. This rise was primarily attributed to increased demand from regional and overseas markets, limited supplies, rising freight charges ahead of potential trade disruptions resulting in delayed consignments, and longer delivery times. Persistent heightened demand from various sectors, including food processing, cosmetics, and biofuels from major importing nations, kept overall exports from the Philippines strong. Concurrently, the Philippines experienced an uptick in international coconut oil prices, leading to increased exports and tighter domestic supply, thereby pushing prices higher. Furthermore, this upward trajectory of coconut oil prices was closely linked with escalating production costs, as coconut farmers faced rising expenses for fertilizers, labor, and transportation witnessed in other producing nations particulary Indonesia. These increased costs were subsequently passed on to consumers through higher coconut oil prices, further driving up overall market prices. Capitalizing on the opportune surge in demand, market participants adeptly initiated proactive price increases, strategically maneuvering to enhance profit margins amidst the growing market fervor. in Overall, the market remained positive, with exporting prices settling at USD 1290/MT FOB Quezon.
Europe
Coconut oil prices in the European region during Q1 2024 have undergone significant fluctuations, particularly impacting the Netherlands. Various factors have influenced market prices, including the decline in global coconut production, trade disruptions, and adverse weather conditions observed across exporting nations, particularly in the APAC region. These factors have resulted in a tightening of supply and delayed consignment arrivals, leading to elevated prices and an optimistic market outlook throughout the quarter. Despite a consistent increase in downstream inquiries for coconut oils from end-users in the food, cosmetics, and other sectors, the overall supply of coconut oil remains limited. Traders have been actively building up their inventories in anticipation of heightened demand. Additionally, buyers have been stockpiling additional quantities to mitigate delivery delays caused by the crisis in the Red Sea, thereby resulting in a higher import price further exacerbated by higher freight costs. Currency fluctuations have also impacted prices, with the Euro continuing to depreciate against the dollar. Purchases from regional markets have remained high, with traders willingly accepting higher quotations, contributing to higher import prices for coconut oil. In conclusion, the pricing environment for coconut oil in the European region, particularly in the Netherlands, was positive in Q1 2024, with import prices settling at USD 1560/MT CFR Rotterdam. Prices have been influenced by supply constraints, increased demand, trade disruptions, and currency fluctuations. While the manufacturing sector has shown signs of improvement with a softer contraction, the overall supply of coconut oil remains limited, leading to elevated prices.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America:
Throughout Q4 2023 in North America, Coconut Oil prices followed a dynamic trajectory in line with the European market trend. Initially, starting from October 2023, prices declined due to weakened purchasing activity and ample availability of stocks in the domestic market. Despite being a cost-effective option, competition from lower prices of other edible oils, such as Sunflower oil, further pressured Coconut Oil prices downward. This trend persisted until the final weeks of December, with prices experiencing a moderate rebound in the middle of the fourth quarter. This rebound was supported by a sudden rise in regional offtakes, balanced with sufficient stocks among merchants, and influenced by higher fuel costs and port disruptions.
Congestion at major ports resulted in delays and significant increases in transportation costs, making the export of Coconut Oil more expensive. This, along with other factors, contributed to a spike in prices for consumers. The uncertain global economic situation and concerns about future supply shortages led to speculation and increased price volatility in the Coconut Oil market, further contributing to the overall price surge.
Despite navigating the dynamic market dynamics of Coconut Oil's downstream end-products, which exhibited a combination of organization and fluctuation, the supply of downstream products proved to be ample. This accommodated the overarching influx of inquiries and resulted in a noticeable decline in transaction volume within the market as December ended.
Asia Pacific:
Across the APAC region, particularly in the Philippines, coconut oil prices showed mixed trends in Q4 2023. Starting in October, prices steadily decreased due to a surge in production from extensive planting initiatives in major producing countries. The decline was also influenced by reduced costs of alternative edible oils like soybean, sunflower, and palm oils. However, in November, the Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 3.4%, and international palm oil prices rebounded by over 6.0%, driven by active purchases and lower outputs. Also, the Philippines Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in November, reflecting solid improvement and the fastest growth in ten months. Furthermore, this recovery in the prices was attributed to increased demand in various applications. Despite ongoing global logistics challenges and rising shipping costs, November saw an impact on domestic coconut oil prices. The appreciation of the Philippine peso against major currencies made exports, including other vegetable oils, more expensive for importing regions. Moving into December 2023, coconut oil costs declined again due to reduced global demand in recent months. Factors contributing to this included the increasing popularity of other vegetable oils and a shift toward healthier diets. On the overall supply side, market participants maintained sufficient coconut oil inventories to meet arriving inquiries, both domestically and abroad. Lastly, trade activity in this period primarily cantered around responding to incoming orders, aligning with the prevailing export momentum.
Europe:
The pricing of Coconut Oil in the European region exhibited volatility throughout Q4 2023, influenced by various factors. Initially, Germany witnessed a substantial price drop, primarily attributed to reduced regional consumption. A key factor in this decline was the global economic slowdown, coupled with escalating inflation, resulting in increased costs for food and various goods. Additionally, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine played a role in weakened demand for coconut oil. The uncertainty introduced by the war in the global economy disrupted supply chains, making the production and transportation of coconut oil more challenging and expensive, consequently dampening demand. Furthermore, coconut oil faced competition from various other vegetable oils, including palm oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil, and rapeseed oil. Recent months witnessed declining prices for these oils due to factors such as increased supply, weakened demand, and the global economic slowdown. Moving into November, the market demonstrated that a significant and ongoing increase in domestic demand was the primary driver of the higher price trend across the local market. Import momentum continued to be affected by trade disruptions, further impacting the overall availability of coconut oil across the region. Additionally, the appreciation of importing nations' currencies, such as the Euro against the US dollar, supported higher purchasing activity for consumers as suppliers and traders could purchase goods at a cheaper rate. However, As December concluded, the Netherlands experienced a notable decline of approximately 3 percent in coconut oil prices. The market dynamics shifted significantly as consumer choices evolved, leading to a substantial drop in coconut oil prices. Some market players strategically reduced their overall selling prices to align with prevailing demand and pricing trends. Considering these factors, the current business landscape suggests that the coconut oil market is poised for a challenging month ahead.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
Throughout the third quarter of 2023, Coconut Oil prices in North America, particularly in the United States, exhibited mixed market sentiments. Prices surged until mid-Q3 but experienced a significant decline in September 2023. This initial rise was driven by heightened demand for Coconut Oil in major exporting regions, maintaining a positive trade momentum in the northern markets. This surge, however, was not an isolated event but a result of a complex interplay of economic factors, input-cost inflation, and shifts in supply and demand dynamics. Increased demand led to bulk ordering, intensifying consumption momentum and further straining the already limited supply, consequently driving prices higher. Apart from that, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in August 2023 improved slightly to 47.9 from the preliminary reading of 47. Aggregate logistics costs surged by 18.6 points, reaching a reading of 175.3 in August, primarily due to rising inventory costs. However, as September 2023 unfolded, Coconut Oil prices saw a decline attributed to the rise in local inventory levels in the US market. Lower fuel costs resulting from a decline in coking coal prices weakened cost support, and increased inventories discouraged bulk orders from domestic buyers. Additionally, a slight uptick in upstream production led to a higher supply of Coconut Oil. Furthermore, the domestic market experienced a decline in the potential of Copra futures, contributing to a further downturn in market conditions.
Asia Pacific
During the third quarter of 2023, the prices of Coconut Oil witnessed a downward market trend in the Asia Pacific region. At the beginning of the quarter, the pricing chart showed an incremented trend due to heightened downstream demand, balanced by ample inventory levels. Moreover, the production cost of coconut oil surged due to the rising expenses associated with raw materials such as coconuts and copra. This trend was particularly noticeable in the Philippines, where coconut oil prices continued to rise steadily until the final weeks of August 2023. The escalation in prices was not limited to the Philippines; many nations, including Indonesia, a major coconut oil producer, experienced price hikes due to shortages in specific regions. In August, businesses faced intensified cost pressures due to elevated fuel and raw material prices. Despite this, inflation slightly eased as heightened market competition led some companies to offer discounts on their products. During this period, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 122.50 points in August from 121.20 points in July 2023. As September approached, the cost of Coconut Oil, which had seen a significant increase earlier in the quarter, began to decline. This drop was influenced by reduced demand and was notably observed in the Philippines. The country's coconut oil industry experienced a record-high production in 2022, yielding nearly 1.4 million metric tons (MMT) last month. This surplus led to higher stocks of upstream copra among merchants. The rise in production could be attributed to several factors, including favorable weather conditions and increased cultivation of coconut trees. Consequently, the market saw a temporary drop in coconut oil prices as the third quarter of 2023 concluded in September.
Europe
Throughout the third quarter of 2023, Coconut Oil prices in the North American region followed a northward trend until August, reflecting the market sentiments. The prices escalated due to a sustained increase in local demand. However, as September approached its end, the prices took a southbound turn. The rise in coconut oil prices until August was a consequence of continuous and growing domestic demand within the local market. Unfavorable weather conditions, including droughts, floods, and extreme weather events, significantly impacted coconut production. Coconuts are sensitive to changes in temperature and rainfall, and Southeast Asia experienced adverse weather in August 2023, leading to a decrease in coconut oil production. Notably, major coconut oil producer Indonesia faced a drought, affecting production. Other Southeast Asian nations like Malaysia and the Philippines also encountered unfavorable weather conditions, hampering coconut production and oil extraction. Additionally, rising input costs such as fuel and fertilizer further contributed to the increase in coconut oil prices. Additionally, the euro's depreciation against the US dollar in August 2023 raised import costs for European consumers, resulting in a higher price trajectory. However, as September progressed, prices significantly decreased, following a southward trajectory. This decline was influenced by reduced demand for lauric acid and related products as food and beverage manufacturers prepared for the holiday season. Typically, demand for these products decreases in the third quarter as consumers shift their focus to activities such as back-to-school shopping and vacations.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
Coconut Oil prices in North America during the 2nd quarter of 2023 followed the trend of the European market. The price of coconut oil decreased from the first quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2023. This implies that the market sentiment for coconut oil will continue to be weak. The reason for the price decrease was the high Coconut Oil inventories in North America at the time, the ample supply, and the Russian suspension of trade in black sea grain. Additionally, a decrease in exports from exporting countries further supported the downward price trend of Coconut oil in the North American region. In addition, crude oil prices decreased sharply, and Russian edible oil and grain offers decreased significantly. This had a significant negative impact on the prices of corn, edible oils, and other grains. Higher interest rates and higher energy prices also impacted import activity as the production in exporting countries decreased significantly. Furthermore, disrupted climatic conditions across the North American region further affected the trade activity from exporting nations, primarily the Philippines, Indonesia, etc.
Asia Pacific
Coconut Oil prices across the Asia-Pacific region, primarily in India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, showed a downward trend. Overall, the prices of coconut oil dropped in the second quarter of 2023 by more than 3 percent in the Indonesian market. Overall, coconut oil prices decreased in the second quarter due to weak demand, weakened vegetable oil markets, and falling crude oil prices, according to analysts. In addition, Indonesia reported a smaller-than-anticipated trade surplus for May, though exports and imports declined compared to the previous month. Additionally, in the Philippines market also, the prices of Coconut oil dropped consistently throughout the second quarter because of increased supply with higher stockpiles, putting further downward pressure on its prices. With the end of June, the prices for Coconut Oil prices in India were assisted at USD 1155/MT FOB Quezon with a consistent diminishing trend in the Philippines. Coconut oil prices decreased consistently throughout the second quarter of 2023 across the Indian Market due to persistent low regional and worldwide demand. Slower demand and higher inventory levels have kept the price trend of coconut oil on the low side. Buyers and traders also withdrew their future quotations from the market due to a persistent decline in inquiries. This has further impacted the overall market sentiment of coconut oil until June in the domestic and overseas markets. The India Manufacturing PMI for June 2023 was 57.8, which is lower than May's 31-month peak of 59.7, and below the market forecast of 59.0.
Europe
The Coconut Oil market ended the second quarter of 2023 on a bearish note, with prices continuing to their downward trend across the European market. European prices of coconut oil continue to fall, across the domestic market, due to subdued demand, weaker trade activity, and higher stockpiles with the merchants. In particular, throughout Q2 2023, prices of coconut oil followed the market trend in the USA and witnessed a consistent declining trend. One of the reasons for the drop in the prices of coconut oil in Europe is that the market has sufficient reserves, and there was low purchasing sentiment. However, the suppliers were reluctant to place newer quotations and focused on destocking their previous stockpiles. In addition, a decrease in buying activity due to unfavorable weather conditions, the ongoing Labour crisis, and the increasing energy prices have decreased the imports of Coconut Oil across the European market, further keeping the prices moving downward.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In North America, the price of Coconut Oil varied in the first quarter of 2023 as a result of fluctuating market dynamism from downstream businesses, including the food and cosmetics sectors. The cost of other edible oils declined in the first half of Q1 2023 as a result of the moderate to low demand from the pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries. Food prices rose globally and in the USA, in particular, due to the invasion of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply interruptions. As a result of the lesser supply coming from the main exporting countries to the USA, prices rose in the second half of Q1 of 2023. In the final month of the quarter, there were still sizeable stockpiles in the domestic US market to meet consumer demand with the supplies despite an increase in demand.
Asia Pacific
In the first quarter of 2023, the price of Coconut Oil fluctuated across the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in Indonesia and India, due to unpredictably shifting market dynamics. As Indonesia only exported a small amount of palm oil in Q1 2023, the price of other edible oils increased in the first half of the quarter. Coconut Oil has become more widely used as an alternative in the domestic market as the cost of other edible oils has decreased. Due to low demand and significant market stocks, the price continued to decline in the second half of Q1 2023. The final month of the quarter saw a decline in pricing as a result of stable demand from end-user industries and domestic households. Towards the end of Q1 2023, the price of Coconut Oil was recorded to be USD 1876.05/MT for Ex-Kuttoor (India) in March 2023.
Europe
As a result of easier access to ports, notably those on the Black Sea, Coconut Oil prices in Europe fluctuated throughout the first quarter of 2023. Due to high production and low demand, the price of all edible oils, including Coconut Oil, fell in the first part of Q1 2023. Massive acres of farmland and the coconut plant's high productivity benefited from the climate. Prices rose in the second month of the quarter as a result of a decline in stocks with the nearby dealers. In the second half of Q1 of 2023, prices of other edible oils in the nation increased, including those for Coconut Oil, as a result of the lifting of the limitation on the export of a certain amount of palm oil. Towards the end of Q1 2023, the price of Coconut Oil was recorded to be USD 1505/MT for CFR Rotterdam in March 2023.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In North America, the price of coconut oil fell in the fourth quarter of 2022 as a result of a decline in demand from downstream industries, including the food and cosmetics sectors. The moderate to low demand from the pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries resulted in a decrease in the price of other edible oils in the first half of Q4 of 2022. However, the invasion of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global supply disruptions drove up food prices, particularly in the USA. Prices decreased in the second half of Q4 of 2022 as a result of the plentiful supply coming from the primary exporting nations to the USA. Despite a decline in demand, there were still sizable stockpiles on the domestic US market. It was possible to satisfy consumer demand with excess supplies.
Asia Pacific
Due to unpredictable market dynamics, the price of coconut oil varied throughout the fourth quarter of 2022 throughout the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in Indonesia and India. The first part of the quarter saw a decrease in the price of other edible oils as a result of Indonesia's heavy production of palm oil in Q4 2022. As other edible oils' prices have decreased, coconut oil has gained popularity as an alternative on the home market. In the second half of Q4 of 2022, the price kept dropping because of weak demand and huge market inventories. Due to a rise in demand from end-user industries and domestic households, prices were raised in the final month of the quarter.Towards the end of Q4 2022, the price of Coconut Oil was recorded to be USD 1903/MT for Ex-Kuttoor (India) in December 2022.
Europe
Prices of Coconut Oil in Europe varied throughout the fourth quarter of 2022 as a result of greater access to ports, particularly those on the Black Sea. All edible oils' prices, including coconut oil, decreased in the first half of Q4 of 2022 as a result of high output and weak demand. The climate favoured enormous acres of cultivating grounds and the robust productivity of the coconut plant. Due to a drop in stocks with the local dealers, prices increased in the second month of the quarter. With the release of the restriction, the price of other edible oils in the country dropped, which led to Indonesia relaxing its restrictions on the export of palm oil in the second half of Q4 of 2022. Towards the end of Q4 2022, the price of Coconut Oil was recorded to be USD 1550/MT for CFR Rotterdam in December 2022.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In North America, the price of Coconut Oil decreased in the Q3 of 2022 due to the declining demand from downstream industries, which includes the food and cosmetics industry. Other edible oil prices fell in the first half of Q3 of 2022 as a result of the moderate to low demand from the pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries. However, the invasion of the Russia-Ukraine war and worldwide supply disruptions caused food prices to rise, especially in the USA. Due to the abundant supply coming from the main exporting nations to the USA, prices fell in the second half of Q3 of 2022. In the USA's domestic market, demand had decreased, but there were also large stocks. The surplus stock was available to meet consumer demand. Towards the end of Q3 2022, the price of Coconut Oil was recorded to be USD 1675/MT for the USA in September 2022.
Asia Pacific
The abundance of production in the regional market, particularly in Indonesia, led to a fall in the price of coconut oil in Asia-Pacific nations in the Q3 of 2022. Due to Indonesia's easing of the ban imposed on its palm oil in Q3 2022, the price of other edible oils declined in the first half of the quarter. In the domestic market, coconut oil has become more popular as a substitute for other edible oils as their prices have dropped. Due to poor demand and excessive market inventories, the price continued to decline in the second half of Q3 of 2022. Towards the end of Q3 2022, the price of Coconut Oil was recorded to be USD 1425/MT for FOB Tanjung Priok in September 2022.
Europe
Due to easier access to ports, notably those on the Black Sea, coconut oil prices in Europe fell in the third quarter of 2022. Due to strong production and low demand, the prices of all edible oils fell in the first half of Q3 of 2022. The weather fostered the coconut plant's strong productivity and favored large acres of cultivated grounds. Prices fell in the second half of Q3 of 2022 as a result of Indonesia's relaxation of its restrictions on the export of palm oil. The lifting of the restriction reduced the cost of other edible oils in the nation. Towards the end of Q3 2022, the price of Coconut Oil was recorded to be USD 1655/MT for CFR Rotterdam in September 2022.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
In North America, the price of Coconut Oil decreased in the Q2 of 2022, owing to the decreasing demand from the downstream industries, including the food and cosmetics sectors. In the first half of Q2 of 2022, the prices of other edible oils increased except for Coconut Oil because demand from pharmaceuticals and cosmetics was modest to stable. However, the invasion of the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions globally led to food inflation in the global market, including in the USA. In the second half of Q2 of 2022, the prices decreased owing to the ample supply from the key exporting countries to the USA. The demand decreased, and there were high inventories in the domestic market of the USA, and the surplus stock was present in the market to feed the consumer's demand.
Asia Pacific
In Asia-Pacific countries, the price of Coconut Oil decreased in the Q2 of 2022, owing to the ample production in the regional market, especially in India. In the first half of Q2 2022, the price of other edible oils was increased due to the ban sanctioned by Indonesia on its palm oil. The increase in the price of other edible oils has shifted the market to other alternate oils like Coconut Oil in the domestic market. Though Coconut Oil is used in India in Kerela and some parts of Karnataka, it has not much affected the market dynamics of the product. In the second half of Q2 of 2022, the price remained on a lower trajectory due to less demand and high inventories in the market.
Europe
In Europe, the Coconut Oil price fluctuated in the Q2 of 2022, owing to the Russia-Ukraine war, which affected the price of edible oils in the global country. Including Germany and Netherland. In the first half of Q2 of 2022, the prices of all the edible oils were hiked due to low production and high demand. The low production of the Coconut plant was affected due to war, which damaged the cultivating lands. In the second half of Q2 of 2022, the prices decreased due to the ease of the export ban by Indonesia on its Palm Oil. The relaxation of the ban settled the price of other edible oils in the country.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In the first quarter of 2022, the prices of coconut oil showed an upward price trajectory, following the trend of all vegetable oil. The prices of coconut oil increased due to the supply crisis in the major coconut oil producing and exporting countries. The supply shortage in one of the major producing and exporting country, Philippine, affected the prices in the North American market. Increasing awareness about the benefits of coconut products and coconut oil with its surging demand in the end-user industries across the globe led to an increase in the prices of coconut oil. Also, the revival of the pandemic had a negative effect owing to trade restrictions, transportation problems, and labor shortages.
Asia Pacific
In the first quarter of 2022, the prices of coconut oil hovered on the upper side, following the price trend relevant to all vegetable oil. The prices of coconut oil increased due to a supply crunch and surging freight costs. Due to unfavorable weather in the major exporting and producing countries, the price surged due to smaller crop yields and lesser stock. The resurgence of covid globally contributed to the coconut oil price hike owing to the labor crisis in Malaysia, which is one of the major producers and exporters. With the surging demand, the end-user industries were facing a demand-supply mismatch on a global level. Towards the end of Q1, the prices were recorded as USD 2985/ton FOB Subic (Philippines).
Europe
In the first quarter of 2022, the prices of coconut oil increased to record heights as Europe is a significant importer of coconut oil trading from the Philippines and Malaysia. The supply shortage in these two major exporting countries resulted in a smaller crop yield due to unfavorable weather conditions. Because the pandemic resurfaced at the onset of the second half of the Q1, the prices accelerated because of the labor crisis leading to bearish production rates. Also, the surging freight cost due to restricted transportation and feeble trade market added on to the already hiked-up prices. Towards the termination of the first quarter, the prices were recorded to be USD 2256/ton (Netherlands).
