For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the North American Coconut Oil market experienced fluctuating prices, influenced by variable supply-side conditions, shifting demand trends, and broader macroeconomic factors. January began with relatively high prices, reflecting the residual impact of late-2024 supply disruptions and elevated procurement activity from the food, pharmaceutical, and cosmetics sectors. Tight inventory levels, coupled with continued shipping delays from Southeast Asia and weather-related crop concerns, maintained pressure on supply chains, contributing to firm pricing sentiment.
By February, prices adjusted as logistical constraints began to ease and some production facilities resumed partial operations. Improved freight availability and moderated demand from downstream industries introduced more balance into the market. However, fluctuating currency exchange rates and inconsistent export offers from key origins such as the Philippines and Indonesia introduced pricing variability, with importers adjusting strategies to navigate cost volatility.
March saw further pricing fluctuations, as demand softened due to slower offtake from non-essential manufacturing sectors and reduced spot buying activity. Meanwhile, improved port throughput and declining container rates from Asia supported more competitive landed costs. Still, uncertain weather patterns in producing regions and geopolitical trade discussions sustained an atmosphere of caution among buyers. Overall, Q1 2025 for the North American Coconut Oil market was marked by a dynamic pricing environment shaped by transitional supply recovery, fluctuating demand, and complex cost variables.
Asia Pacific
The Indonesian Coconut Oil market experienced a volatile first quarter in 2025, marked by shifting supply-demand fundamentals and evolving macroeconomic conditions. January opened on a strong note, as coconut oil export prices rose in tandem with similar trends seen in the Philippines. Tightening inventories, heightened global demand, and raw material cost fluctuations supported bullish price sentiment, with exporters benefiting from improved margins amid favorable currency and trade policy dynamics.
However, February reversed this trend, registering a -0.60% price decline due to oversupply and muted downstream activity. Elevated domestic inventories and a historic dip in the Consumer Price Index created deflationary pressures, prompting reduced procurement from sectors like oleochemicals and food processing.
By March, the market rebounded sharply on the back of El Nino-driven production cuts and persistent pest challenges, which curtailed coconut availability. Despite a weakening Manufacturing PMI and inflation uptick to 1.03%, strong global demand from the US, EU, and China sustained upward price momentum. The quarter closed with a net positive trend, underscoring the Indonesian market’s sensitivity to climatic variables, international offtake patterns, and internal economic shifts. Stakeholders will need to maintain adaptive sourcing strategies as weather volatility and global macroeconomic forces continue to shape pricing trajectories.
Europe
The European Coconut Oil market, with the Netherlands as a key trading hub, exhibited a volatile pricing trend through Q1 2025. January saw sharp price increases due to climate-related supply disruptions in major origins like the Philippines and Indonesia, where prolonged La Niña effects severely reduced yields. This, combined with geopolitical tensions and higher freight costs, pushed import prices upward. Rising demand across food, cosmetics, and biofuel sectors further intensified pricing pressure, resulting in elevated procurement costs for European buyers.
However, this bullish momentum reversed in February, as falling freight rates and reduced export prices from Asian producers led to a market correction. Despite modest improvements in Dutch manufacturing data, overall industrial activity remained subdued, limiting consumption and creating a surplus environment. Inflation continued to suppress purchasing power, weakening demand from key end-use segments.
By March, coconut oil prices rebounded significantly. Higher global production costs, tight supply, and elevated export offers from origin markets, alongside a weaker euro, increased landed prices. Easing inflation to 3.7 percent supported a firmer domestic demand outlook, particularly for sustainably sourced oils. The quarter concluded with net price gains, underpinned by persistent supply concerns and renewed buying interest, highlighting the importance of strategic sourcing in managing volatility across European markets.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the North American Coconut Oil market displayed exceptional strength, with prices mirroring those in the European region. This surge was driven by significant supply chain disruptions, increased industrial demand, and adverse weather conditions that hindered coconut oil production.
These factors led to sustained high prices throughout the quarter, with notable price momentum in the northern region. The market faced considerable supply-side pressures, exacerbated by global logistics issues and the closure of manufacturing facilities, resulting in tight inventories. Simultaneously, strong demand from the pharmaceutical and cosmetics sectors fuelled aggressive procurement efforts, further tightening supply.
The appreciation of the US dollar against major currencies added another layer of pricing pressure, with higher export costs and reinforcing the upward price trend, keeping the import prices on the northerly side. Combined with elevated transportation expenses, these factors contributed to a bullish market outlook.
Asia Pacific
In the fourth quarter of 2024, coconut oil prices in the Philippines fluctuated due to a mix of supply and demand dynamics. In October, prices slightly declined, driven by the government’s initiative to plant 100 million coconut seedlings, expected to increase production and potentially lead to an oversupply. Additionally, rising exports contributed to the global supply increase, further pressuring prices. Global competition from alternative edible oils and subdued demand added to the price volatility. However, by November, export prices surged due to supply constraints, including the aging coconut palms and adverse weather conditions like Typhoon Man-yi, which limited production. Strong international demand from industries such as food, cosmetics, and biofuels, along with disruptions in global edible oil markets, pushed prices higher. Inflationary pressures on labor, fertilizers, and logistics also raised production costs, while a weaker Philippine Peso made exports more competitive. In December, export prices remained elevated due to continued supply limitations, stagnant production, and strong global demand, particularly from the USA, the Netherlands, and China. Despite ongoing industry revitalization efforts, the market faced short-term challenges, supporting an optimistic pricing trajectory.
Europe
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2024, the coconut oil market saw significant price increases due to various supply and demand factors. In October, a shortage in copra supply, worsened by adverse weather and lower yields, limited availability in major producing regions. Additionally, rising production costs, including labour and energy, added further pressure. On the demand side, steady consumption from the food, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical industries kept demand high. Currency fluctuations, along with rising export and freight costs, made coconut oil more expensive for global buyers. In November, supply constraints in the Philippines and Indonesia, coupled with adverse weather and rising production costs, drove import prices higher. The growing demand from multiple sectors further exacerbated the situation. By December, prices continued to climb due to global supply challenges, including stagnant output in the Philippines and increased competition from other importing regions. Logistical issues, currency fluctuations, and higher input costs contributed to the escalating prices, highlighting the vulnerabilities in the coconut oil supply chain.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American Coconut Oil market demonstrated remarkable strength throughout Q3 2024, with prices reaching a higher level similar to that of the European region. Amid significant supply chain constraints, robust industrial demand, and adverse weather conditions affecting the overall coconut oil production continued to impact the trading sentiments concerning coconut oil, thereby supporting continuous higher prices.
The market dynamics were pronounced in the northern region, persistent upward price momentum dominated trading sentiment. The quarter was characterized by substantial supply-side pressures, as global logistics disruptions and manufacturing facility closures created significant inventory constraints across the region. This supply tightness coincided with heightened demand from key end-use sectors, particularly the pharmaceutical and cosmetics industries, which maintained aggressive procurement strategies to secure volumes.
Adding to the complex market environment, the depreciation of the US dollar against major currencies introduced additional pricing pressures, effectively increasing import costs and influencing broader market sentiment. This currency impact, combined with elevated transportation costs, contributed to the overall bullish price trajectory.
Asia Pacific
The third quarter of 2024 has been a period of increasing prices for Coconut Oil in the APAC region, with the Philippines experiencing the most significant price changes. Several factors have influenced the market, including rising demand from end-users, improved manufacturing margins, and favorable procurement conditions. Additionally, the stabilization of prices, combined with strong demand, has created a positive trading environment. The quarter recorded a 14% price change from the previous quarter, reflecting a steady upward trend. Overall, the market faces a complex interplay of supply and demand factors, creating a dynamic pricing environment. On the supply side, production challenges in major producing countries such as adverse weather conditions, including typhoons and droughts, could have severely impacted the coconut yields. Supported by this, disease outbreaks, such as coconut leaf wilt, further threaten production levels. Coupled with this, rising costs for essential inputs like fertilizers and labor, these factors contribute to supply constraints and upward price pressure. Additionally, coconut oil is emerging as a preferred alternative to palm oil, which faces environmental scrutiny. With respect to the demand side, downstream purchasing sentiments concerning coconut oil fluctuated between moderate and high levels, reflecting the complex interplay of market forces. A notable uptick in purchasing activity was observed, particularly from end-user oleochemical industries, indicating growing confidence among market participants. Transactions took on an optimistic tone, supported by ease in global freight costs. The industry's resilience was further bolstered by a decrease in freight charges, which enhanced the momentum of higher exports. As a result, throughout the quarter, the overall trend in Coconut Oil pricing has been positive, reflecting a healthy demand-supply balance and favorable market conditions.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the European Coconut oil market witnessed a substantial uptrend in prices concerning coconut oil, driven by a myriad of factors. High global demand, supply constraints, and currency fluctuations played significant roles in shaping the pricing landscape. The market grappled with disruptions such as production delays, adverse weather conditions, and trade disputes, contributing to the overall price surge. Buyers across the importing nations consistently stocked up on additional quantities, which was further affected by delivery delays from export nations. Additionally, seizing upon the surge in demand, growing food security concerns, due to potential global crop yield reductions, led to increased stockpiling behavior, further driving up demand, resulting in a continuous rise in its prices. Supporting this, both input costs and output prices experienced inflation rates that aligned closely with long-term averages, reinforcing the market's stability and predictability. This favorable cost environment allowed suppliers to engage in strategic pricing adjustments, ensuring profitability while maintaining competitiveness. As a result within the European region, the Netherlands experienced the most significant price changes, with a recorded 19% increase from the previous quarter of Q3.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the U.S., the coconut oil market is poised for significant shifts, mirroring trends observed in the European, particularly the Netherlands, market. The second quarter of 2024 reveals a dynamic landscape with pronounced price volatility, characterized by distinct market behaviors.
April 2024 initiated with robust momentum, marked by rising prices due to insufficient inventory and heightened regional demand. Suppliers grappled with product availability issues, though reduced freight costs provided some relief, enabling higher import quotes despite of persistent appreciation of the dollar against other nations' currencies. However, May 2024 experienced a substantial price decline, attributed to waning international demand and heightened competition from alternative edible oils. Economic uncertainties and evolving consumer preferences posed challenges, leading to reduced downstream consumption in the personal care, food, and oleochemical sectors. Consequently, procurement activities diminished, resulting in higher stockpile levels among merchants. While, yet again June 2024 marked a resurgence in the market, concluding the quarter on a high note.
Coconut oil prices saw a steady rise, driven by increased global demand from end-users and limited availability from key producing nations, especially the Philippines. Market dynamics throughout the quarter were shaped by decreased coconut production in the Philippines, ongoing production and supply delays, and strategic adjustments by market participants to mitigate risk and sustain stability. As a result, the quarter culminated with traders actively offloading stocked inventories at higher costs, reflecting a generally positive market sentiment despite the mid-quarter dip. This volatility underscores the U.S. coconut oil market's susceptibility to global economic conditions, supply chain disruptions, and shifting consumer preferences, necessitating vigilant market strategies.
Asia Pacific
In Q2 2024, the Southeast Asian coconut and coconut oil market experienced significant volatility, driven by a complex interplay of factors affecting both supply and demand. The quarter began with rising demand for organic coconuts and related materials, primarily due to fears of impending weather events in the Philippines and surrounding areas. This surge in demand, coupled with higher production costs in the Philippines (including increased prices for fertilizer, labor, and input coconuts), initially pushed prices upward. The threat of a severe El Niño season further intensified demand for Southeast Asian-imported coconut ingredients. This weather phenomenon caused major problems in key growing countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka, leading to raw material shortages and fierce competition among stakeholders. In response to a noticeable increase in purchasing activity, inquiries from end-user food industries surge at a continuous rate with market transactions consistently leaning in the northerly direction. However, as the quarter progressed, market dynamics shifted. May saw a steady drop in market quotations from key importing nations. Desiccated coconuts from the Philippines and Indonesia traded firmly as traders focused on clearing inventories at lower costs. A significant rise in global freight charges, container shortages, and weakened market inquiries from end-users in various sectors led to muted new orders and reductions in placed consignments. June continued the downward price trend, influenced by persistent increases in freight costs, making imports more expensive. This highlighted the significant impact of logistics and transportation expenses on commodity prices in import-dependent markets. Throughout the quarter, coconut oil inventories remained high relative to end-user inquiries. Stable prices in competing oils (palm, soybean, sunflower) may have indirectly influenced coconut oil pricing by shifting market preferences. By the end of Q2, the market was characterized by a firm trend in coconut prices on the supply side, limited new orders from pharmaceutical end-users, and just-in-time regional acquisitions. The overall market transaction remained lean, with trade occurring primarily on a need basis from the Philippines.
Europe
The European coconut oil market, particularly the netherlands market experienced significant volatility, characterized by an overall upward trend in prices and optimistic trading sentiment. The quarter can be divided into three distinct phases, each with its own market dynamics. April 2024 saw a strong start to the quarter, with prices rising due to insufficient inventory and increasing regional demand. Suppliers struggled with product availability, while easier freight costs provided some resilience to trades, increasing import quotes. Traders focused on clearing inventories at higher prices amid continuous regional inquiries. Currency devaluation, particularly the depreciation of the Euro against the dollar, provided cost support to coconut oil suppliers and exporters. The Netherlands Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.3, signaling improved operating conditions and increased production levels. May 2024 brought a significant price drop, driven by subdued international demand and increased competition from alternative edible oils. Economic uncertainties and shifting consumer preferences contributed to market challenges. Reduced downstream consumption from personal care, food, and oleochemical industries led to decreased procurement activities and higher stockpile levels among merchants. June 2024 saw a market rebound, ending the quarter on an optimistic note. A steady uptick in coconut oil prices was propelled by increased global demand from end-users, coupled with limited product availability from producing nations, particularly the Philippines. This supply constraint exacerbated the imbalance between demand and supply, leading to higher prices. Throughout the quarter, market dynamics were influenced by factors such as decreased coconut production in the Philippines, ongoing delays in production and supply, and shifting strategies among market participants to manage risk and maintain stability. The quarter ended with traders actively selling their stocked-up inventories at higher costs, reflecting the overall positive sentiment in the market despite the mid-quarter dip. This volatility underscores the coconut oil market's sensitivity to global economic conditions, supply chain disruptions, and changing consumer preferences.
